Climate Risks: Assessment and Management in AgricultureManagement in Agriculture

S l j RSelvaraju Ramasamy

Climate, Energy and Tenure Division, FAO, Rome

Outline

• Climate risk management – relevance in the context of resilience building and adaptation

• A risk Management framework

d i i k d b id i i ld• Reducing risks and bridging yield gaps

• Improving decision support systems

• Data tools and methods for application• Data, tools and methods for application

• Strengthening institutional and local capacities

• Conclusions and recommendations

Transforming uncertainty into riskstowards building resiliencetowards building resilience

U t i tBetter informed

• Uncertainty• randomness with unknown

probabilitiesRi k

farm decision making

• Risk• randomness with known probabilities• Risks are largely location and context 

ifi d f h d dspecific; product of hazard and vulnerability

• Risk Management Improved and Resilient 

• The systematic processes of identifying, analysing and responding to risks

Livelihoods

Well integrated li

Well informed d i i t policy

developmentdecision support services

Adaptation to long‐term changes starts with managing climate variabilityg g y

• Effective management of climate risks on• Effective management of climate risks on shorter‐time scales

• Contributes to manage baseline problems

C ib d l• Contributes to current development priorities and reduces vulnerability (win‐win opportunity)

M h i h h l i h i f• Matches with shorter planning horizons of the farmers

• Uncertainties associated with climate change j ti d i tprojections and impacts

Comprehensive strategy for building resilience and adaptationp

Reducing Vulnerability(Reducing

underlying causes

Managing Risks(Apply

climate informationin different time scalesy g

of vulnerabilities)in different time scales

into assessment of risksand decision making)

Enhancing Resilient Adaptation

(Help decision(Help decisionmakers at different levels to

develop adaptationstrategies)

A risk Management framework

A Risk Management Framework

Assessing current and future climate

Assessment1. Participatory and

experiential learningand future climate impacts, risks and vulnerabilities

Monitoring and

Planning for adaptation

2. Cross-sectoral

3. Building on existing systems

Monitoring and evaluation; Integration into policy and replication

and preparing localizedimpactoutlooks

CRM4. Integrating short-term

and long-term options

5. Cross-cutting

Prioritizing local coping strategies and

Implementing adaptation

5 C oss cutt gpriorities (gender, capacity building, coordination, communication andstrategies and

adaptation practices

practices and demonstrations

communication and partnerships)

Reducing risks and bridging yield gaps

Managing Risks of Full Range of Variability

Source: World Development Report, 2008.Notes: Number of plots in parentheses. Open pollinated improved varieties in all cases except Nigeria, whichuses hybrids. Data for 2001 for Ethiopia, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Uganda; 2002 for Malawi; and an average of2001, 2002, and 2004 for Mali.

• Risks of climate extremes on either side of the distribution

• Extremes of dry and wet and associated impacts

• Missed opportunities due to risk averse conservative strategies of decision ri

sis

risis

dship

dship

risis

risis

dship

dship

pportunity

pportunity

ity d

ensi

ty

conservative strategies of decision makers

• Low input during normal and good seasons

CrCr

Hard

Hard

CrCr

Hard

Hard

Missed op

Missed op

Pro

babi

li

Climate (rainfall)

Contribution of climate services is crucialCli k l d ll i l• Climate knowledge at all time scales:• Climate change to understand the trend and alter systems level 

decisions (cropping or grazing?)S l li t i f ti t k t t i d i i ( t• Seasonal climate information to make strategic decisions (crop type, marketing, forward selling, livestock herding rate etc)

• Intraseasonal forecasts to schedule tactical operations (E.g. Fertilizer, water and other adjustable inputs )water, and other adjustable inputs.,)

• Weather forecasts for the day to day operations

Demand ‐ Supply mismatch

• Demand for climate information is diverse:– localized, timely and easily understandable– diverse cropping systems and decision cycles

S i bl f d I i i A i– Suitable for user needs –Institutions, Ag. service providers, irrigation managers, input suppliers, market intermediaries, local cooperatives, micro-financing, farmers, fisherman, livestock herders

• Supply is often constrained by insufficient data and resolution– information is general, data and technical terms g ,

not easy to understand– Narrow, specific and precise information– scales of climate outlooks and local agriculture

decision makingdecision making

Reaching the most vulnerable• Pilot experiences (Ongoing and p ( g g

recently completed FAO projects)– Vietnam – Northern Mountain Region– Nepal – Mid hills and Terai– The Philippines – Bicol region – Jamaica – Drought prone uplands– Bolivia – ENSO induced drought and floods

P Hi h l i d ll h ld– Peru – High altitude small holders– South Africa – Emerging farmers

K i t ti• Key interventions– Strengthening/upgrading local observation

networks– Capacity buildingCapacity building– Interpretation and development of customized

information products– Communication to end users

I i d i i t tImproving decision support systems

Precipitation Indices and Crop Yield Forecasting

Agriculturally relevant precipitation indices (deviation from normal, water stress, agriculture season length (beginning and end) etc.,)

Provides continuous information on value added variables relevant to decision Provides continuous information on value added variables relevant to decision making at the regional and national level

Analysis of meteorological and climatic data allows providing near real‐time information about the crop state, in quality and quantity, with the possibility of information about the crop state, in quality and quantity, with the possibility ofearly warning

10-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL (mm) - 3rd dekad September 2011

Scenario Based Risk Typologies and Indicative Optimal Strategies in agricultureStrategies in agriculture

Resource protection and Sustainable

Preparedness to save lives and livelihoods

Farm level risk insurance, safety High Emergency

relief and

ncy

and Sustainable natural resource management

Enterprise diversification and

Preparedness to save lives and livelihoods;

lives and livelihoods and rehabilitation

Catastrophe risk insurance

, ynets, risk sharing mechanisms

Moderate

relief and rehabilitation

Freq

uen

Maximizing input

Optimal use of resources

diversification and risk coping mechanisms

promote alternate livelihood activities

Strengthening social capital and

it t kAlternate li lih d

Emergency response and rebuilding livelihood resources

risk insurance

Very Low

Low

g puse efficiency

community networks livelihood options

Minor Serious Extensive catastrophe

Very Low

Severity

ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation

Medium Term (5 –10 years) Warning Systems (MTWS)

• The MTWS is intended to fill the gap between seasonal – scaleThe MTWS is intended to fill the gap between seasonal  scale assessments and long‐term impact projections

• Identify the future Areas of Concerns (AOCs) and likely hotspots of vulnerabilities and sensitivitiesvulnerabilities and sensitivities

Coping with a changing climate: Considerations for Adaptation and Mitigation in Agriculture (FAO, 2009)

Humanitarian response: Climate services for reducing i k d t ti li lih drisks and protecting livelihoods

Emergencies are on the rise especially sudden Emergencies are on the rise - especially sudden onset disasters and series of low and high rainfall extreme events

Need based early warning systems have Need based early warning systems have important implications• mobilization of resources needed to prepare for,

and respond to, emergencies in order to save lives and protect livelihood systems

• planning for mitigation measures as part of short term responses to build resilience against future i timpacts

Data Tools and Methods forData, Tools and Methods for Assessment

Livelihood analysis, vulnerability and risk mappingrisk mapping

• Livelihood analysis interprets climateLivelihood analysis interprets climate related hazards and builds on local strategies.

• Livelihood analysis proposes to develop risk and vulnerability and risk mapsrisk maps

• Provide advance information about the livelihood baseline and theirthe livelihood baseline and their vulnerability to weather and climate phenomenon.

Climate Data

• Synoptic and agrometeorological stationsin developing countries are thin anddecliningdeclining

• For example, there are just over 1150World Weather Watch stations in Africagiving a density of 1/26 000 km2

S l i ti t ti d t i• Several existing station data remainpaper based and are inaccessible tousers

• Efforts need to be strengthened to fill the gaps and increase the resolution

• spatial interpolation to fill the missing data• spatial interpolation to fill the missing data• proxy measurements using satellites• Rainfall Estimation

Linking climate data analysis tools and g ylivelihood approaches

Cli i f i d b h d ifi l• Climate information systems, data bases, hazard specific early warnings, impact assessment tools are well developed over the years

• Livelihood based bottom up approaches brings the social aspects and local perceptions about the climate impacts and local coping strategies

• The livelihood based integrated impact assessment provides a basis for prioritizing livelihood strategies and institutional supportpp

Strengthening Institutions and Local g gNetworks

Farmers social capital

Social cohesion (e.g. community networks, local institutions, norms and relationships) is critical for managing climate risks

P idi dibl i f ti t f ti t• Providing credible information to farmers as a group can motivate for pro-active decision making

• Local networks shape the farmers social interactions leading to b tt ti i t d i ibetter participatory decisions

Farmers knowledge sharing mechanisms relevant to local context f ff fis the key for effective communication of value added climate

information• Farmer field schools integrating climate and weather information• Farmer participatory climate workshops• Farmer participatory climate workshops • Innovative Information and Communication Technology (e.g. mobile

networks etc.)

Strengthening Institutional and Technical capacitiesp

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) understanding the needs of agriculture support services and understanding the needs of agriculture support services and

farmers development of weather and climate information products

Agricultural Support services and Community Based Organizations development of contingency plans improving impact data collection, monitoring and analysis,

developing impact outlooks and management alternatives de e op g pact out oo s a d a age e t a te at esconsidering local needs

communication of information and receiving feedback

Conclusions Climate is one of the several factors shaping the risk management strategiesmanagement strategies

Managing full range of climate variability (managing g g g y ( g grisks and opportunities)

A i lt t i ll l d tAgriculture support services are well placed to contribute to risk management

However, number of areas need urgent attention –data, tools, approaches

Thank you