Climate Change Science & Role of Youth

Dhiraj Pradhananga

The Small Earth Nepal

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• WHY our EARTH is small?• What are the major pressures to the EARTH?• Causes for climate change?• Global, Regional, National, Local Climate Change?• What are its impacts?• What can we do? • Adaptation to Climate Change?• OUR Role ?

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• Aim of the Presentation– To enable us to understand the climate change science and its

consequences

• Objectives of the Presentation– Human Pressure on the Earth– Review on Climate Change Science– Review - climate change impacts– Adaptation to climate change

• Observed & Projected climate change in Nepal• GCM & RCM (Climate scenario & climate change scenario)• All Nepal & Local – Climate Change

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Major causes of pressure to the Earth??

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Human Impacts

Human Activities and Environment• During 100 yrs (1900 – 2000)

– Population 4*, Economic 20*, fossil fuels 30*, industry 50*

• Dynamic development provides explosive global environmental impact– Disappearance of species 0.17% per year– Desertification 6*106 Km2 per year– Deforestation 17*106 Km2 per year– Soil oxidation & erosion 26*109 Km2 per year– Increase in CO2 since 1850 30%

Environmental Problems• The pressure on the environment is high and can

be observed worldwide– Local disturbance to climate change– Polluted ground/water to acidification– Dispersion of chemical in nature to waste disposal– Melting of ice-caps/glaciers to deforestation and

desertification– Road accident to natural disasters

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Ecological Significance

• energy and material consumption for the last 4 decades is faster than population growth

• an irresistible economy seems to be on a collision course on within immovable ecosphere

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The Living Planet Index measures trends in the Earth’s biological

diversity

Between 1970 and 2003, the index fell by about 30%.

This global trend suggests that we are degrading natural ecosystems at a rate unprecedented in human history.

Biodiversity suffers when the planet's biocapacity cannot keep pace with human consumption and waste generation

Since the late 1980s, we have been in overshoot–the Ecological Footprint has exceeded the Earth’s

biocapacity–as of 2003 by about 25%.

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Living Planet Report 2000 (30 years from 1970 to 1997)

• Earth’s natural ecosystems has declined by 33%

• Ecological pressure of humanity on the Earth has increased by 50%

Ecological pressure of an average consumer in the industrialized countries is FOUR times that of an average consumer in the lower income countries

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Living in Capital not Interest• Effectively, the Earth’s regenerative capacity can no longer keep

up with demand – people are turning resources into waste faster than nature can turn waste back into resources.

Humanity is no longer living off nature’s interest, but drawing down its capital.

This growing pressure on ecosystems is causing habitat destruction or degradation and permanent loss of productivity, threatening both biodiversity and human well-being.

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The Global Aspects Taught by Gandhi“If every inhabitant of this earth were to

consume as much as the inhabitants of the wealthy countries, we would need a second

Earth.”

But the present data tells us we already need a third Earth if everyone consumed the same

amount of fossil fuel.

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• Natural disasters

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• Loss of Biodiversity

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•Pollution: Air, Water and Land

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Climate Change and Its Consequences

The Greatest Challenge

Basics of Climate ChangeWhat is it meant for us?

What is giving cause for concern?

• Weather has been more chaotic and extreme (hurricanes, droughts, floods)

• Glaciers are shrinking• Animals moving to cooler places• Global temperature has increased by 0.74oC

212121

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Warmest 12 years:2005, 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2004,

2001, 1997, 1995, 2000, 1999

Source: IPCC-AR4

Global Mean Temperature

Accelerating Rate of warming

(°C per decade)

1850 – 2005 => 0.045

1905 – 2005 => 0.074

1955 – 2005 => 0.128

1980 – 2005 => 0.177

Anthropogenic climate change (Global Warming)

Climate change is already under way and will increasingly affect the basic elements of life for people around the world.

"Adverse effects of climate change" means changes in the physical environment or biota resulting from climate change

which have significant deleterious effects on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health

and welfare” (Art 1. UNFCCC, 1992).

Calorie availability in 2050 is likely to have declined relative to 2000 levels throughout the developing world, resulting in 24

million additional malnourished children, 21% more relative to a world without climate change

(IFPRI, 2009).

Vulnerability of developing world to climate change

• Rely on climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture and fisheries

• Low GDP, high levels of poverty• Low levels of education • Limited human, institutional, economic, technical and

financial capacity• Key sectors hardest hit by climate change

– Water resources– Food production– Human health– Ecosystem and natural resources

Millions at risk

Climate Change Science

What is the major cause of CHANGE?

Three factors affect how warm the planet is:

1. Distance from the sun2. Albedo effect3. Chemical composition of

the atmosphere

It is the chemical composition which has changed the most significantly in the last 200 years

Name Pre-ind conc ppmv

1998 con ppmv

Atmosph lifetime yr

Main anthropogenic source

GWP

Water 1 to 3 1 to 3 Few days

CO2 280 365 Variable Fossil fuels, cement, land use change

1

CH4 0.7 1.75 12 Fossil fuels, rice paddy, waste dumps, livestock

23

N20 0.27 0.31 114 Fertilizers, combustion

296

CHF3 0 0.000014 260 Electronics, refrigerant

12000

SF6 0 0.0000042 3200 Dielectric fluid

22200

Some of the main greenhouse gases

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Two important pointsTwo important points

• Greenhouse effect is needed for life!Greenhouse effect is needed for life!– If no GH effect, temp the earth would be -18 deg. C

• It is not only COIt is not only CO22 which is responsible which is responsible

CO2 concentration has changed over millennia & global temperature follows similar pattern

Then if we look at some other evidence:

There are other natural causes of climate change

• Amount of energy coming from the sun• Volcano's• Ocean currents• Meteor strikes (very rare!)• Tectonic plate movement (very, very slow!)

Computer model evidence for climate change being human induced

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Climate Change Definition

• Any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC)

• Change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural variability observed over comparable time periods (UNFCCC)

A statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer) EARTHSCAN 2007

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Source: IPCC-AR4

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Global Warming

• Observed– 11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) rank the 12 warmest years

since 1850– 0.740C increase in the last century– Higher the latitude and altitude, greater the warming

• Projection– For next two decades, warming of 0.20C per decade– If conc. of GHG and aerosols kept constant at year 2000 levels,

warming of 0.10C per decade

21st Century warming larger than 20th century

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

BIODIVERSITY

•Extinction of some plant and animal speciesLoss of habitatDisruption of aquatic life

AGRICULTURE

•Shift in food growing areasChanges in crop yieldsHigh irrigation demandIncreased pest, crop diseases & weeds in warm areas

WATER RESOURCES •Change in water supplyDecreases water qualityIncreased droughtIncreased flooding

FORESTS•Changes in forest composition and locationsDisappearance of some forestsIncreased fires from dryingLoss of wildlife habitat and species

SEA LEVEL

•Rising sea levelsFlooding of low lying islands and coastal cities

WEATHER EXTREMES

•Prolonged heat waves and droughtIncreased floodingMore intense hurricanes, typhoons, tornadoes & violent storms

HUMAN POPULATION

•Increased deathsMore environmental refugeesIncreased migration

HUMAN HEALTH•Increased death from heat and diseasesDisruption of food & water suppliesSpread of tropical disease to temperate areasIncreased respiratory diseasesIncreased water pollution from coastal flooding

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Some projected impacts IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

• Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, and rock avalanches from destabilized slopes, and to affect water resources within the next two to three decades.

• This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.

• Freshwater availability in central, south, east and southeast Asia is projected to decrease due to climate change

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Some projected impacts IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

• Crop yield could decrease up to 30% in central and south Asia by the mid-21st century

• However, yield could increase in colder environments

• Insect outbreaks could increase

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Some projected impacts IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

• Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhea disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise

• Increased risk of heat-related mortality• Reduced human mortality from decreased

cold exposure

Examples of Ecological Consequences

Higher winter temperatures and drought lead to pest outbreaks and forest die-off in western N. America

In summer 2002, pinyon (Pinus edulis) began dying en masse from drought stress and an associated bark beetle outbreak

(Jemez Mts. near Los Alamos)

(2004)

Source: USGS

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Climate Change Scenario: Nepal

Observed and Projected

Climate - what we expectWeather - what we get

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• Climate scenario & climate change scenario• Observed & Projected climate change in Nepal• GCM & RCM• All Nepal & Local – Climate Change

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Climate Scenario

Plausible representations of the future that are consistent with assumptions about future emissions of GHG and with our understanding of the effect of

increased atmospheric concentrations of these gases on global climate.

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Climate Change Scenario

difference between

“climate scenario” &

“present climate”

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Major Weather Systems (Source: Baidya, DHM)

• Northern limit of the Tropics.

• Southern lap of the Himalayas

• Mountainous country

• Topographically complex

• Affected by monsoon

In summer and western

disturbances in winter

26º 22' N - 30º 27' N Lat. 80º 4'E - 88º 12'E Long.

0 200 400100 Kilometers

India

China

IranPakistan

Myanmar

Thailand

Afghanistan

Laos

Nepal

Cambodia

Bangladesh

Oman

Bhutan

Sri Lanka

Turkmenistan

Malaysia

0 130 26065 Kilometers

Summer Monsoon

Western disturbances

494949

Climate Change: Nepal

• Temperature• Precipitation• Himalayan Glaciers

Temperature

50

51515151

Annual Mean Temperature Trend2

y = 0.039x + 19.335

R = 0.5973

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

19

75

19

77

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79

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81

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83

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85

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87

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20

01

20

03

20

05

Year

Te

mp

era

ture

(°C

)

• All Nepal Temperature is increasing steadily.

• 1.7°C increase between 1975 and 2005

Temperature Trend (Baidya, DHM)

Precipitation

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Number of days with rain >= 100 mm

19771992, 35

1987, 106 19981975

1982

y = 0.5997x + 61.417

R2 = 0.0984

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

19

71

19

73

19

75

19

77

19

79

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81

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87

19

89

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91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

Year

Da

ys

Increase in frequency of heavy rainfall events (> 100 mm/day)(Source: DHM)

Glaciers

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X010 Glacier retreating at the rate of 10 meter per year (Source: GEN/DHM)

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Imja Glacier Lake (DHM)

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Tsho Rolpa Glacier Lake

How Fast They Are Shrinking?How Fast They Are Shrinking?• Faster than the other glaciers• Faster than the previous estimate

Dyurgerov [2002]; Fujita et al. [1997, JG; 1998; BGR; 2001, BGR]

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Observed Climate Change Impact

Cryosphore studies in Nepal• Glaciers of Nepal Himalayas are retreating

– Glacier lakes are forming and expanding– Higher chances of GLOF

• There are changes in monsoon and winter climate under global warming.

• Hydro-climate process of high Himalayas are largely different from those of lowland.

Climate Change and Himalayas

• Vulnerable Himalayan GlaciersRapid Shrinkage & high climatic sensitivity of Himalayan Glaciers

• Himalayan Glaciers – Not enough data, not integrated– A Blank Spot in IPCC AR4 (2007)– 3 billion people are associated – shrinking more rapidly than elsewhere– Need to reduce scientific uncertainty

Most of the glaciers are retreating!

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Observed Climate Change

Rainfall• Total rainfall and heavy rainfall events are increasing

• Maximum 24 hour rainfall is also increasing Temperature

• Days and nights are both becoming warmer. • Warm spell duration (long hot days) is increasing• Cool nights and cool days are becoming less frequent

Most glaciers are retreating at faster rateExtreme hydro-climatic events are increasing

PROJECTIONSPROJECTIONS

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Warmer Future

Model output from PRECIS run at IITM,

India

Temperature Change ProjectionFor Late 21st Century

Climate Change Projection Climate Change Projection Late 21st Century(Karmacharya, DHM)

PRECIS projection of mean temperature change over Nepal by the end of 21st century

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Wetter Future

Model output from PRECIS run at IITM,

India

Change in Annual Rainfall

Up to 30% increase

Climate Change Projection- Late 21st Century(Karmacharya, DHM)

PRECIS projection of rainfall change over Nepal by the end of 21st century

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Wetter Summer

Drier Winter

Change in Seasonal Rainfall

Climate Change Projection- Late 21st Century(Karmacharya, DHM)

Model output from PRECIS run at IITM,

India

69696969(Source: Sharma, DHM)(Source: Sharma, DHM)

70707070

WATER RESOURCES WATER RESOURCES (Source: Sharma, DHM)(Source: Sharma, DHM)

WATER AVAILABLE IN NEPAL

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Pe

r c

ap

ita

Wa

ter

Av

ail

ab

le (

m3/y

r)

Scenario A1, B1

Scenario A2

Khumbu, Rasuwa and JumlaKhumbu, Rasuwa and Jumla

LOCAL Observations from

Annual rainfall trend- Annual rainfall trend- Chaurikharka Chaurikharka (WWF/SEN, 2008)(WWF/SEN, 2008)

Trend: 30 mm/ decade

Total rainfall Trend Vs Elevation

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Total Precipitation Trend

prcptot Linear (prcptot)

Chaurikharka

Annual rainfall trend

• Large (+ve) in Terai

• Small (+ve or –ve) in high altitude

Extreme rainfall trend

• Large (+ve) in Terai

• Small (+ve or –ve) in high altitude

Extreme rainfall Vs Elevation

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Extreme rainfall trend

Ele

vati

on

rx5day

rx1day

1 day extreme rainfall - Chaurikharka 5 day extreme rainfall - Chaurikharka

Trend in extreme rainfall Vs Altitude

(WWF/SEN, 2008)

Khumbu AreaKhumbu Area

Station name Elev (m)

JIRI 2003

OKHALDHUNGA 1720

PHATEPUR 100

Warm and Cool Day and Night Vs Altitude

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

Trend Value

Ele

vati

on Cool days

Warm days

Cool nights

Warm nights

• Warm days and nights are increasing

• Cool days and nights are decreasing

(WWF/SEN, 2008)

Khumbu Area

Area Rainfall Change Projection (%)

All Nepal Average 15.5

At Study Grid 10.4

Average over 9 grid with study site at center

10.7

Change in rainfall with latitude

1.59

12.11

17.1

26.3526.6

26.8

27

27.2

27.4

27.6

27.8

28

28.2

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Rainfall (%)

Lati

tid

e

Study area

(WWF/SEN, 2008)

Area Temp. Change Projection (C)

All Nepal Average 4.2

At Study Grid 4.7

Average over 9 grid with study site at center 4.2

Change in Temp. with latitude

4.4

4.5

3.7

3.926.5

27

27.5

28

28.5

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Temerature (C)L

ati

tud

e

Study area

(WWF/SEN, 2008)

Temperature extremes are shifting to Temperature extremes are shifting to warmer regime warmer regime

(Practical Action/SEN, 2009)

Summer days (25) trend at Jumla

Warm nights' trend at Jumla

Significant decreasing trend in Significant decreasing trend in annual total rainfall annual total rainfall

(Practical Action/SEN, 2009)

Trend of total rainfall on wet days at Jumla

Trend of annual count of days when rainfall > 10 mm at Jumla

Increased risk of flash flood and Increased risk of flash flood and drought in different seasonsdrought in different seasons

Consecutive dry day trend at Rasuwa

Consecutive wet day trend at Rasuwa

Changing Climate in JumlaChanging Climate in Jumla

• Annual rainfall is in declineAnnual rainfall is in decline• Temperature extremes are shifting to warmer regimeTemperature extremes are shifting to warmer regime• Likely to cause significant decrease in water availability, Likely to cause significant decrease in water availability,

specially decrease in snowfall amount in winter specially decrease in snowfall amount in winter • This will seriously deplete the moister available for the This will seriously deplete the moister available for the

winter crop. winter crop. • Thus, rapidly altering (warming) climatic condition might Thus, rapidly altering (warming) climatic condition might

have negative impact on productivity of local crop varieties have negative impact on productivity of local crop varieties and might also damage habitat of important medicinal and might also damage habitat of important medicinal plants. plants.

• The combined effect of increased temperature and decrease The combined effect of increased temperature and decrease snowfall will also reduce the snow mass available for melting snowfall will also reduce the snow mass available for melting in dry period (pre-monsoon) when snowmelt is the major in dry period (pre-monsoon) when snowmelt is the major component of river flow and thus affect the livelihood component of river flow and thus affect the livelihood condition on downstreams as well. condition on downstreams as well.

(Practical Action/SEN, 2009)

Rasuwa (Jibjibe at border of Bhorle and Rasuwa (Jibjibe at border of Bhorle and Dhaibung, between two big landslides)Dhaibung, between two big landslides)

• Impact severity in ranking: Landslide, Hail storm and Impact severity in ranking: Landslide, Hail storm and lighting, Drought, Flood, Snowfalllighting, Drought, Flood, Snowfall

• Heavy rain during short period - increased Heavy rain during short period - increased • Village is at very high risk due to landslides; Village is at very high risk due to landslides;

transportation got hit most significantly; local labor transportation got hit most significantly; local labor got impacted due to the road destruction but getting got impacted due to the road destruction but getting more jobs as no transportation. Due to risk of more jobs as no transportation. Due to risk of landslide, all the settlement was in situation of landslide, all the settlement was in situation of replacement. replacement.

• Temperature increase significantly since 6-7 years; Temperature increase significantly since 6-7 years; Mango is seen (growing well) and other plants from Mango is seen (growing well) and other plants from low land is now growing here, and is considered low land is now growing here, and is considered positive impact of climate change. positive impact of climate change.

• Less snowfall and decreased water resource. Less snowfall and decreased water resource.

Bridges in Dipalgaun, JumlaBridges in Dipalgaun, Jumla

Houses in JumlaHouses in Jumla

Road Leads Landslide: Road Leads Landslide: Gabion WallsGabion Walls

Cropping PatternCropping PatternChoice of CropsChoice of Crops

SALT (Slopping Agriculture SALT (Slopping Agriculture Land Technology) Land Technology)

Alternative EnergyAlternative Energy

Education and Poverty Education and Poverty AlleviationAlleviationLoan and InsuranceLoan and Insurance

Quality DataQuality Data

Table 1: Hazard types and adaptation matrix

Mitigation and Adaptation

S Settlements Hazards Hard Measure Soft Measure Remarks

1 Ghat LandslideRock FallFlood and GLOF

4 houses close to steep cliffs should be relocated (50 m away from the cliff)Forestation in the landslide areaBio-engineering/check dam, gabion wall and retaining wall construction

Awareness Health PostsRegular MonitoringEWS

Old bridge (Between New & old settlements) is at high risk5 houses in high risk Solid waste at landslide area

2 Chhuthawa Flood/GLOF River training; Check dam constructionDykes construction

Flood preparedness program EWS

3 Chhermadin Flood/GLOFDebris flow

All houses should be relocated People to be convinced about the potential hazards and new safer area is to be provided for their resettlement

4 Phakding Debris flowGLOF/FloodRock FallLandslide

Rock fall prone house and GLOF prone houses should be relocatedConstruction of High dykes(strengthen the existing small check dams)

AwarenessEWS Health Posts

One house under the threat of rock fallMore than 50% houses in High risk

5 Gumela Flood/GLOF Check dams and Gabion walls

6 Sano Gumela Landslide BioengineeringForestation on excavation area

Awareness

7 Thulo Gumela Comparatively safer area

8 Toktok Debris flow from Ghatte Khola

Check dam/gabion wallBridge should be lifted higherPower plant should be protected by high dams along the stream bank

Awareness Old bridge and 70 KW Hydropower are at high risk

9 Benker Flood/GLOFRock fallLandslideBank erosion

Plantation; Construction of fences to prevent rock fall; High walls at river bank

AwarenessEconomic diversity /Earning diversity EWS

10 Chhumawa GLOF EWS Few houses are under the GLOF risk

11 Chhuserma Landslide Gabion walls, Forestation, Stop over grazing Awareness

12 Manjo Bank erosion from Manjo Khola

Raise the height of bridge at Manjo Khola, Check dam at Manjo KholaGabion wall along the bank of Manjo Khola

Awareness

Adaptation in Nepal?

• Weather and Climate Services

• Advancement of meteorological studies and development

• Continuous advancement of operational forecasting and seasonal prediction including severe weather warning

• But, end users not aware. Need to build their capacity to USE

• Impact is more due to the people’s ignorance. Need to be aware

• The outputs of research/conferences on Climate change assessment, impact and adaptation need to be understood by people. They need to be educated about it and prepared for future adaptation actions

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What Should be Done?• the best strategy to cope with the adverse impacts - and opportunities - of CC

tomorrow is to help developing countries adapt to climate variability today

• it is necessary to involve the community in the process

• there is a need of greater integration between approaches to CC adaptation and sustainable development

• Therefore, CC adaptation needs collaboration and participation efforts from local to national and international level

• Similarly, the threats and challenges of climate variability and change need to be embedded into community development planning and community based capacity building programs.

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Our Respond?

• International Action: UNFCC and Kyoto

• Carbon trading: CDM, Footprint tax• Local Commitment (USA, EU, East Asia, India, Bhutan,

Australia) highest is north America

• Sustainable economic growth: Renewable energy; Adapting to change

• Personal Commitment and public action

The Triad Model of Social ChangeThe Triad Model of Social Change

MotivateMotivate

CapacityCapacity OpportunityOpportunity

Discussion!!!

The Small Earth Nepal626 Bhakti Thapa SadakNaya Baneshwor Tel: +977-1-4782738

Email: smallearth@wlink.com.npURL: http://www.smallearth.org.np

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Climate Change Impact in NepalMessage take HOME

• developing countries are, in particular, disproportionately vulnerable to climate change

• most affected by climate variability and extreme events are the poor and vulnerable

• estimated impact of weather-related disasters in developing countries 20-30 times larger than in industrialized countries (Jovel, 1989)

• Climate change will most likely exacerbate these problems (McCarthy, 2001)

“I am no longer skeptical …climate change is the major

challengefacing the world”

Sir David Attenborough“Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today, more serious even than the threat of terrorism”Sir David King The Atlas of

Climate ChangeMapping the world’s greatest challenge