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© Department of the Environment and Energy 2019

This work is copyright. The Copyright Act 1968 permits fair dealing for the purposes of research, news reporting, criticism

or review. Selected passages, tables or diagrams may be reproduced for such purposes, provided acknowledgement of the

source is included. Major extracts may not be reproduced by any process without written permission of the publisher.

Prepared by Dr Tony Press, Dr Will Howard and Paul Mattiazzi as the NCSAC Committee Secretariat on behalf of the

National Climate Science Advisory Committee.

GPO Box 787, Canberra ACT 2600

Tel +61 (0)2 6274 1111

Email: www.environment.gov.au/about-us/contact-us

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Foreword Climate change exacerbates risks inherent in the Australian climate

and brings new ones, posing serious consequences for our

economy, communities and environment. Across all sectors of the

Australian economy, businesses, governments and communities

are now assessing the risks and impacts arising from our changing

climate.

Climate science allows us to anticipate and plan for new extremes

and increased frequency of severe weather events such as

heatwaves, bushfires, tropical cyclones, droughts and floods—

which are so frequently part of Australian climate—and their

impacts on our unique marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Climate change impacts flow through to

our businesses and communities. Agriculture and mining are affected by water availability, floods

and heatwaves. Much of our population and infrastructure is in coastal areas vulnerable to sea-level

rise and severe storms. Understanding our future climate allows for strategic investments in

adaptation and infrastructure, and for businesses to actively manage risks.

Australia needs weather and climate information, models and tools that accurately reflect and

describe our diverse country and our region. Timely and reliable weather and climate information

underpins decisions in agriculture and mining; in transport, trade, and infrastructure; in defence and

foreign aid; and in conservation and environmental protection. Climate science is the foundation of

that information, bringing direct economic, social and environmental benefits to Australia.

An understanding of future climate risk is now essential for decision makers in

business and government alike. High quality climate information allows us to

better prepare for and perhaps avoid some climate change impacts, while enabling

us to benefit from potential opportunities. Investments in Australia’s climate

science capabilities will be key to achieving the best possible outcomes for

Australia in this changing climate.

Climate science is a collaborative effort, bringing together many disciplines, organisations and

scientists from all over the world. Australia draws on these global scientific resources for critical

data, tools and research.

We reciprocate by contributing knowledge, sharing data and resources in our role as a leader in

global and Southern Hemisphere climate research. Australia must continue to contribute to global

scientific efforts in order to ensure valuable data and expertise continues to be shared with us.

Importantly, no other country can do the climate science that Australia needs. Australia’s national

interests stretch from our Northern tropics to Antarctica and across three oceans. We must build on

our capabilities and strengthen our capacity to respond to the challenges of future climate variability

and change.

Australia’s climate research efforts must continue to manage the challenge of finite funding.

Maximising the return on these investments requires us to take stock of our climate science

capabilities, build on our research strengths and improve the coordination of scientific institutions

and agencies to better support our long-term climate research. Australian climate research must

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also be better targeted to Australian needs and conditions, to build the models and tools to help

business and Governments better understand and more effectively respond to the changes already

locked into the climate system and the ones still to come.

As Chair of the National Climate Science Advisory Committee I have been privileged to experience

the vast scope and complexity of Australia’s world-class climate research. This research is built on

the work of an extraordinary community of scientists, researchers, technicians, programmers and

communicators who provide the climate information that so much of our economy depends on.

The advice of the Committee is provided for the Government, industry and research community to

take forward, and together build the climate science capacity that Australia needs to meet the

significant and complex challenges presented by our changing climate.

Dr Katherine Woodthorpe AO FTSE FAICD

Chair National Climate Science Advisory Committee

20 July 2019

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Table of Contents Foreword .......................................................................................................................................... 3

Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... 6

Strategic Actions ............................................................................................................................. 11

Chapter 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 14

Chapter 2. Implications of Climate Change ..................................................................................... 18

Chapter 3. Key Components of Australia’s Climate Research Effort................................................ 25

3.1 Observations, Data, Analysis and Infrastructure ..................................................................... 25

3.2 Climate Process Studies ......................................................................................................... 31

3.3 Climate Modelling and Projections ......................................................................................... 34

3.4 Climate Risk, Adaptation and Services .................................................................................... 46

3.5 International Engagement and Dependencies ........................................................................ 53

3.6 Research Coordination and Funding ....................................................................................... 56

Appendix 1. Current initiatives in Australian climate science ......................................................... 60

Appendix 2. Global trends shaping Australian climate research ..................................................... 65

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Executive Summary Australia’s climate is changing as a result of anthropogenic warming and will continue to change in

the future. Australia’s climate has warmed by just over 1°C since 1910 and this has led to an

increased intensity and frequency of extreme heat events, longer fire seasons, warming and

acidifying oceans and rising sea levels that amplify the effects of high tides and storm surges on

coastal communities and infrastructure. Climate science and related disciplines contribute to

identifying risks and opportunities from these changes that enable informed decision-making and

adaptation. Australia’s community and business leaders need information to manage the risks from

our changing climate. This information should be at scales and timeframes relevant to informing

policy and investment decisions at local and regional levels.

The vision of this document is of an Australia prepared for the decades ahead, informed by robust

climate science and projections that are integrated into decision making across all sectors of society

and the economy.

Our nation’s prosperity and security depends on our ability to anticipate, manage and prevent the

economic, social and environmental impacts of climate change and variability on Australia and our

region—from the short term and through to the end of the century and beyond. This science effort is

the basis of building and delivering the practical information we need to underpin our prosperity and

wellbeing. The actions outlined in this document identify the steps to enhance, coordinate and

deliver climate science for Australia’s benefit.

There are six essential elements to our climate science effort, all of which are needed for decision

makers to have the information they need to understand climate change and manage its risks and

impacts.

1. Observations (climate data, analysis and infrastructure)

Observations, and the infrastructure that allows this data to be collected, stored and utilised is

fundamental to our national climate science capability. Our understanding of climate processes, how

they work and affect our weather and how they are changing, is built on long-term, consistent

records of the behaviour of the atmosphere, land surface, oceans and cryosphere—from the tropics

to Antarctica.

Our observational network is comprehensive. Atmospheric composition and air quality information

is drawn from facilities like the BoM-CSIRO Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station. Ocean

temperature, current, carbon and salinity data are obtained by the Integrated Marine Observing

System (IMOS) and our research vessels including RV Aurora Australis and Investigator. Uptake and

release of carbon from the land are measured by the OzFlux Facility within the Terrestrial Ecosystem

Research Network (TERN). Extensive weather and climate data are collected by the Bureau of

Meteorology and there are also essential data sets that are internationally-sourced, particularly

remote sensing information covering all aspects of the Australian environment.

A longer-term context for our observational data is informed by paleoclimate data generated from

sources such as ice cores drilled by the Australian Antarctic Division, tree rings and corals. Analysis of

this data enables us to understand the drivers of our weather and climate, track trends and changes,

and build and test climate models that can simulate the past and predict future change. Sustaining

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key climate observations and identifying critical gaps and the impact of these gaps are priorities. It is

equally important to ensure these data are properly curated, discoverable and accessible. This will

require ongoing support for national facilities such as the National Computational Infrastructure

(NCI).

2. Climate Process Studies

Climate process studies combine measurement, theory and modelling to build a functional

understanding of processes, phenomena and modes of variability that affect climate. These include

processes such as cloud formation, air-sea gas exchange and sea-ice formation; and phenomena

such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole that strongly affect Australia’s

weather and climate and which are influenced by anthropogenic climate change. This understanding

is incorporated into climate models to provide greater predictive ability. However there remain

knowledge gaps in key processes that act as barriers to greater confidence and insight into our

changing climate, in turn affecting the confidence of our decision-making.

Improving our understanding of climate processes gives us greater ability to determine the relative

influences of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change on extreme weather and climate

events. This in turn allows us to know the climate risks, the data we need to collect, and the

phenomena we need to better understand.

Process studies are conducted through the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, individual

universities and other research institutions. Further research is undertaken through agencies and

collaborative programs such as Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and Australian Antarctic Division, the

National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Earth Systems and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub and

the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership. We need to ensure there is collaboration and

coordination of efforts to make the best progress in this research.

3. Climate Modelling and Projections

Australia’s governments, businesses and communities need to plan for and effectively manage the

impacts of anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability in coming decades. This will

require high-quality data and services informed by scientifically-credible climate change projections,

integrated into decision-making processes. To ensure we have scientifically robust information

Australia needs global, regional and local projections at time scales of months, years, decades and

centuries. Some of this knowledge is gained using numerical models such as the Australian

Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS). ACCESS is a fully coupled Earth system

model capability developed by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology along with the ARC Centre of

Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX), a partnership of the University of New South Wales, Monash

University, the Australian National University, the University of Melbourne, and the University of

Tasmania.

Model suites such as ACCESS simulate changes in climate by linking models of the ocean,

atmosphere, sea-ice, land surface, greenhouse gas emissions, global carbon cycle and chemistry and

aerosols. ACCESS allows us to simulate major changes in the Earth's climate over decades-to-

centuries, and to make short and medium-range weather forecasts, seasonal predictions for

particular regions and century-scale climate projections.

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While there are many coupled Earth system models around the world, understanding and managing

climate risks requires that we maintain a distinctly Australian modelling capability and focus.

Australia’s land and vegetation is unique, and only a model that captures key ecosystem processes

can simulate some of the climate impacts that Australia will experience. Australia’s ACCESS is the

only global climate and Earth system model developed and run in the Southern Hemisphere. ACCESS

has provided model submissions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and

6 and the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessments. This builds on almost three decades of Australian

investment in global climate model development and contribution to all IPCC Assessment reports.

The Government has made a significant investment at CSIRO to develop and deliver a decadal

forecasting capability, with the vision of incorporating this into ACCESS. Continued close

collaboration between CSIRO and BoM, supported by the universities is needed to maintain and

develop the seamless forecasting capability of ACCESS from sub-daily to multi-decadal and century

time scales. A key priority is the further development of ACCESS to provide regional and local climate

projections (called climate downscaling). This capability will allow for a nationally coordinated

approach for climate downscaling and analysis, complementing the existing regional climate model

capability at CSIRO, in the university sector and through the states and territories. The ACCESS

Scoping Study, initiated under the auspices of the Department of Education with the objective of

‘Enhancing the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator’ within the National

Research Infrastructure framework, is a significant development towards achieving these goals.

A nationally consistent understanding of projected climate changes and impacts across Australia is

needed for business and government to assess and manage their risks. Information needs to be at

spatial and temporal scales relevant for decision-making, and allow for continuous risk assessment

for businesses who operate across state borders and jurisdictions (e.g. electricity transmission

network companies). Australia has the opportunity to develop a new generation of scientifically

robust climate projections based on the synthesis of simulations from multiple global climate

models. This is made possible through our participation in the international Coupled Model

Intercomparison Project (CMIP). When combined with regional climate models developed and used

by CSIRO and universities, high-resolution regional projections can be generated. Extensive end-user

engagement and communication of the projections will also be essential for their utilisation.

4. Climate Risk, Adaptation and Services

A strong and credible Australian climate research capability is fundamentally important to impact,

adaptation and vulnerability assessments. This is clearly demonstrated by the recent surge in

demand for climate change information across public, private, environmental and financial services

sectors. As the impacts of climate change emerge more clearly in Australia and the world, company

directors and other decision makers are responding to their legal requirements to manage climate

risks effectively. The ability to understand and manage climate risks depends in part on high quality

climate science information delivered in forms that are accessible to users and tailored to their

needs. This puts an emphasis on researchers and communicators working with users to understand

their needs. There is also a strong need from end users for research and analysis supporting disaster

risk reduction, both nationally and regionally. Meeting these needs poses both a challenge and an

opportunity for Australia’s climate scientists. Inadequate information can lead to the mispricing of

assets and a misallocation of capital. Consequently, more financial decision makers are demanding

improved information on the business risks and opportunities associated with climate change.

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Australia has a strong track record in delivering climate information through channels such as the

Climate Change in Australia website and the outreach and engagement activities of organisations

such as the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, state government agencies and universities.

Australia’s states and territories are making important contributions to domestic and international

climate knowledge. For example, the states and territories are applying the outputs of global climate

models to produce detailed climate information at local scale. These local- and regional-scale climate

projections allow state and local governments, businesses and communities to understand and

prepare for climate change at the community level, including effects on water resources, agriculture,

energy and coasts. Anticipating these effects helps decision makers maximise opportunities and

manage risks from climate change.

As the demand for information on climate risks changes, Australia will need to change how it

provides the science and datasets that inform decision-making. There is growing demand for the

latest science information combined with an outreach and engagement capability that can tailor and

communicate this information to decision makers, many of whom may not have previously had to

manage or plan explicitly for climate change related risks. This critical ‘knowledge brokering’

element is vital to translate climate science into more useable information products suitable for

integration with other risk management information used by these groups. A number of

organizations currently provide some form of climate service. There are strong national benefits in

providing a more coordinated, collaborative and diversified approach to climate services between

researchers and agencies, designed with users and delivered to them in practical formats to

encourage effective action for Australian businesses and communities.

5. International Engagement and Dependencies

Australia cannot go it alone on climate science. We are a significant investor in climate science and a

major contributor to global science efforts, especially in the Southern Ocean, Antarctica and the

Indian and Pacific Oceans. Our economy and research programs also receive significant benefits

from the efforts of international agencies and research groups. The understanding we have now is

built on decades of global collaboration between scientists and science agencies, and is reliant upon

ongoing international investment and the sharing of knowledge, systems, tools and data. It is critical

for Australia’s future well-being and prosperity that these collaborations continue.

Australia’s research efforts in our region allow us to contribute to global climate science and access

vital data and information from other countries, including global climate model simulations

undertaken by more than forty centres around the world through the Coupled Model

Intercomparison Project. Without this shared information and capability we cannot understand and

anticipate how climate change will affect our country and our weather. Our investments in Southern

Ocean and Antarctica research are vital to maintaining this critical information capability. This is

recognised through the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership and the Australian Antarctic

Science Strategic Plan.

We need to ensure that key international collaborations are maintained and strengthened so that

we can continue to contribute to and benefit from the global effort to understand climate. This

needs support across all levels, from individual scientists, research agencies, and different levels of

government. Funding to facilitate engagement and formally sustain Australia’s involvement and

contribution to key global programs, especially the World Climate Research Programme; the Global

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Climate Observing System (GCOS), Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and Tropical Pacific

Observing System (TPOS), is in Australia’s long-term strategic interests.

6. Research Coordination and Funding

Over the last 30 years, Australia has developed a world class climate science capability that is

globally recognised for its contributions to scientific knowledge, and through the IPCC and other

avenues, to public policy. Investments in the development of skills, research and operational

infrastructure, and partnerships (like ACCESS, Centres of Excellence and our international

collaborations) prepare us well for the challenges and opportunities of the future.

Sound governance, coordination and the efficient resourcing of contributing research agencies,

programs and centres is integral to delivering useful climate science to decision makers and the

public. Funding also needs to be sustainable and predictable as research needs are often complex

and require long-term investments of time, financial and human resources and infrastructure. For

large-scale and long-term climate research to be successful, interdependencies among programs

supported by different agencies, portfolios and tiers of government need to be considered. From the

public funding perspective, research has to be coordinated with investments directed towards the

highest value research avenues so that national benefit is maximised. From a research perspective,

the system needs to be structured to minimise the amount of time and energy expended to secure

funding and support from multiple sources.

Australia’s world-class climate science programs are built on a valuable history of global

collaboration and several decades of sustained investment by Commonwealth, state and territory

and local governments. There is an opportunity to leverage even greater outcomes from these

ongoing investments through improved cooperation, governance and coordination. To realize the

ambition and objectives of this strategy, and in particular robust and timely climate science services

for end users across the private and public sectors—enhanced partnerships will be required. These

include partnerships between universities, research organizations and infrastructure facilities that

together will deliver the multiple elements of the science program. Sustained investments in

Australian climate science and international collaboration will continue to deliver strong economic

and community benefits in coming years.

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Strategic Actions The areas identified for action that follow are designed to build on our current strengths, and to

realise the full benefits of Australian climate research. The last action identified by the Committee

recognises the need for it to transition from its current high-level strategic focus to a broader

representation as a Climate Science Advisory Group with a focus on supporting implementation of

the strategic actions.

Observations, Data, Analysis and Infrastructure

Action 1) Convene a technical reference group to identify gaps in observation systems, data streams,

their analysis and application with emphasis areas identified through engagement with climate

information users.

1a) the technical reference group should report to the Advisory Group on gaps, risks, their

implications, priorities and options by December 2019, with support from the Department of

the Environment and Energy, the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science and the

Department of Education.

Action 2) The Bureau of Meteorology, with support from CSIRO and research institutions, should

prioritise projects to develop, enhance and maintain consistent high resolution climate datasets

covering the Australian land mass and surrounding ocean regions including high resolution

subdomains encompassing all capital cities and major regional population centres.

Climate Process Studies

Action 3) The ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX), in collaboration with research

agencies and institutions, should identify significant gaps in understanding and areas of uncertainty

in key climate processes affecting climate predictability and climate projections for Australia and

surrounding regions.

3a) The CLEX report should also consider prioritisation and resourcing needed to address

gaps in knowledge and research efforts in Australia over the next decade.

3b) CLEX should report its findings to the Advisory Group by December 2019.

Climate Modelling and Projections

Action 4) ACCESS partners including the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and key universities should

review and extend their collaborative effort to develop ACCESS as Australia’s national weather and

climate model platform, in cooperation with our long-standing international partners.

4a) the principles to guide the ongoing collaboration for the ACCESS model should be

defined and the governance and coordination arrangements improved. This could include

consideration of negotiating a new formal collaborative agreement between the partners;

and

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4b) this collaboration should align with the Scoping Study for the Optimisation of the ACCESS

Model being led through the Department of Education and NCI secretariat, as part of the

Australian Government Research Infrastructure Investment Plan.

Action 5) The NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub and key partners should develop a

plan by June 2020, for the program of next generation climate projections for Australia, including:

5a) undertaking further market research and stakeholder consultation to inform the work

program;

5b) assessing and utilising data sets and modelling methods to use the inputs more

effectively, for example, ensemble generation methods and constraints on projections

approaches;

5c) coordinating new regional scale modelling and integration for use in national projections;

5e) significantly enhancing links to climate services and knowledge brokering to the diverse

range of stakeholder groups.

Climate Risk, Adaptation and Services

Action 6) The Advisory Group should consider the potential for the future integration of climate

projections and data services. This should include:

6a) the costs, benefits and risks of combining seasonal and regional scale projections in a

nationally-consistent framework;

6b) exploring the potential for integration of climate data and projections with other Earth

systems information to enhance the relevance and utility of the climate information;

6c) identifying opportunities for co-design with business and community end users in the

development of supporting tools and systems.

Action 7) The Earth Systems and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub, in conjunction with key partners in the

Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and the university sector, should prepare an initial report on options

for building a national climate service capability that would provide decision makers with climate risk

information tailored to their organisations and sectors.

7a) The ESCC Hub and partners should report to the Advisory Group on their findings by June

2020.

7b) The provision of comprehensive knowledge brokering and climate services needed by

industry, government and the community to manage the risks of a variable and changing

climate should take account of the initiatives and ongoing work of key research agencies and

institutions and state and territory governments.

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International Engagement and Dependencies

Action 8) Agencies should maintain a national research focus on priority climate regions for Australia

and the Southern Hemisphere, such as the Pacific and Indian Oceans, Antarctica and the Southern

Ocean, and the Great Barrier Reef.

8a) these national priorities require maintaining strong engagement with international

programs including IPCC, WCRP Grand Challenges and CMIP6, as well as sustained

observations and data collection, stewardship of and access to Australian data collections, to

ensure continuing domestic access to international data sources and capabilities.

Action 9) Agencies should work in collaboration to support the provision of climate services in the

Asia-Pacific, particularly in the South Pacific region through:

9a) the Australia-Pacific Climate Change Action Program (APCCAP) through the Department

of Foreign Affairs and Trade;

9b) Partnerships and collaboration with corporate and government enterprises financing

climate adaptation initiatives.

Research coordination and funding

Action 10) Reform and expand the National Climate Science Advisory Committee into a Climate

Science Advisory Group to provide high level advice on and coordination of Australia’s climate

science effort, and publicly-funded research infrastructure. In its work, the Group should:

10a) consider the current human capital needs and resourcing levels of the existing scientific

effort across the core climate research domains;

10b) consider the critical research skills and capabilities necessary to meet Australia’s future

climate science challenges with regards to emerging global megatrends and pace of

technological advancement;

10c) prepare an implementation plan to prioritise and coordinate Australian climate

research, with consideration of the work of the states and territories, to fully utilise the

national climate science capability.

Conclusion

The strategic actions set out in this report provide a solid foundation to ensure our climate research

effort continues to deliver world class scientific knowledge and essential information for the

Australian community and our economy. Climate change has significant and growing consequences

for governments, communities in cities and regions, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, businesses

and individuals. Decision-makers across all these sectors need appropriate and robust science to

inform policy and manage their climate risks. A sustained investment and integrated research effort

utilising the full capabilities of Australian climate science can deliver the climate services and

products that businesses and the broader community will increasingly demand as the impacts of

climate changes continue.

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Chapter 1. Introduction Our nation’s prosperity and security is influenced by our ability to anticipate the economic, social

and environmental impacts of climate change and variability on Australia and our region, from the

short term, through to the end of the century and beyond.

An Australia climate-prepared for the decades ahead is one informed by robust climate change

projections, integrated into decision-making across all sectors of society and economy. This vision

requires projections that are plausible, scientifically credible, in forms and at temporal and spatial

scales relevant to decision-making, and kept up-to-date in a standardised operational environment.

There are six components which underpin our national climate science effort:

1. Observations, Data, Analysis and Infrastructure

2. Climate Process Studies

3. Climate Modelling and Projections

4. Climate Risk, Adaptation and Services

5. International Engagement and Dependencies

6. Research Coordination and Funding

These six components form the core of Australia’s climate research effort and are essential if

decision makers are to have the information they need to understand climate change, and manage

its risk and impacts. The purpose of this document is to identify those areas of climate research

where sustained national investment is needed to deliver maximum benefit from our scientific effort

to users of climate information. Agriculture and resource managers, health professionals, insurers,

engineers, conservationists, banks and global asset management firms, company directors and

governments at all levels are all seeking more sophisticated analyses of current and future climate

and guidance and tools that can be used to assess and manage climate risk.

Ensuring the needs of business, communities and governments are met will require sustained

partnerships with them as end users of climate information. Opportunities for industry to co-design

the climate tools, advice and services they require should be maximised to ensure they are fit-for-

purpose. To achieve this, research agencies and climate information service providers will need to

adopt a strong customer oriented focus to ensure their outputs and services benefit the Australian

community and drive innovation for businesses and industries.

This document considers climate science broadly, not only the biophysical basis of climate processes

and climate change, but also in relation to impacts and vulnerability assessment, risk assessment,

scenario planning and projections, adaptation planning, mitigation and climate transition planning.

The strategic actions are designed to ensure Australia’s climate science continues to deliver the

information we need to understand, mitigate and adapt to the effects of a changing climate and can

respond to users’ needs.

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Box 1: Australia’s Climate Science Pipeline

Australia’s climate science effort can be

described by the “climate-science pipeline”

(Figure. B1).

Australia’s observation infrastructure

contributes to the global network of

climate observations that span the

temporal and spatial ranges necessary for

climate researchers to understand the

physical processes that drive the climate.

Research informs climate modelling (and

vice-versa), and the need for observational

infrastructure. These activities are

supported by high- performance computing

and eResearch infrastructure, which

provide the processing capability for global

climate models and the tools to share and

use large quantities of data.

Climate science and modelling provides the

basis for climate services, which is the

information needed by citizens, businesses,

and governments to make decisions. For

example, this could be an insurance

company determining their exposure to

increasing risks of natural disasters, fire

agencies assessing seasonal bushfire risk,

the emergency service workers seeking to

build resilience in communities, or

governments deciding whether or not to

change building codes. Useful climate

information is in high demand, from sub-

seasonal to decadal and 100-year forecasts.

The value of climate science to Australia

can be greatly enhanced through climate

services. To ensure public and business

sectors can derive maximum value from the

science, the entire pipeline needs to be

supported.

Figure B1. The climate science pipeline. This process shows the interdependency of activities needed for climate science and climate services.

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This report identifies the following the goals for Australian climate science and considers their

achievement will bring direct economic, social and environmental benefits to Australia and are

integral to Australia’s long-term national interest:

to build on and refine our knowledge of climate variability and climate change;

to ensure the knowledge and capabilities to prepare for and respond to climate-related

changes affecting our cities, regions and ecosystems, such as the frequency and intensity of

bushfires, heatwaves, droughts, and floods, are ready and fit for purpose;

to improve understanding of climate extremes; the processes that drive them and the risks

to ecosystems, infrastructure and industries and communities;

to ensure climate knowledge is available and relevant to decision makers at all levels—

governments, communities, businesses and individuals—to inform on risks and adaptation

responses;

to harmonise and align our climate research efforts for greatest national benefit; and

to ensure the scientists who undertake this vital national endeavour are supported with

access to the skills and research infrastructure to realise these goals.

Australia’s climate science delivers a significant return on investment, consistent with investment in

research and development (R&D) overall. International studies show one dollar of increased applied

R&D spending increases national income by 6 to 25 dollars. One dollar of increased basic research

spending increases national income by 20 to 100 dollars. For OECD countries like Australia it is

estimated about 14% of domestic economic output relies directly on advances in the physical,

mathematical and biological sciences1. In 2016 the Office of the Chief Scientist and the Australian

Academy of Science reported that the total direct and indirect impact of advances in these science

fields amounted to around 26% of Australian economic activity (about $330 billion per year)2.

Science and technology are drivers of economic prosperity, environmental quality, and national

security. Public investment in research pays substantial dividends. The US National Academies of

Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine reported “… returns on investment (ROI) … for publicly funded

R&D range from 20 to 67%”3. Earth-system and climate sciences are critical components of the

overall science and technology enterprise, providing knowledge and data essential for developing

policies, legislation, and regulations regarding resources at all levels of government. Investments in

earth-system and climate science stimulate innovations that fuel the economy, provide security, and

enhance quality of life.

The economic benefits of climate science are increasingly recognised by a range of industries for

whom anticipating and managing climate risk has significant value in planning and guiding

investment.

1 Bochove, C.A. van, 2012 Basic Research and Prosperity: Sampling and Selection of Technological Possibilities

and of Scientific Hypotheses as an Alternative Engine of Endogenous Growth; Centre for Science and

Technology Studies, 2012 Working Paper Series, http://www.cwts.nl/pdf/CWTS-WP-2012-003.pdf

2 https://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/2016/01/reports-economic-contribution-of-advances-in-science/

3 National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and Institute of Medicine. 2007. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/11463

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Australian science can tell us how our weather is likely to change in response to both natural and

human factors and how we can best anticipate and adapt to these changes. Australia’s rainfall and

water availability—critical to our economy and communities—are influenced by atmospheric and

ocean processes in surrounding seas. Australian science has enabled us to understand climate

drivers such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular

Mode, and so better predict rainfall, as well as the risks of flood and drought.

Australia also receives great benefit from our engagement with the international community on

climate science, for example, access to critical satellite-based data. In addition there are

fundamental and unique contributions that Australia makes to ensure global climate science reflects

our circumstances and our interests. For example, our Antarctic research is crucial for the

development of climate models around the world and provides insights into future sea-level rise that

will affect coastal communities worldwide.

There is a vast breadth of work in the climate research initiatives currently underway in Australia.

These programs and collaborations are built on a significant history of Australian and international

climate science and several decades of sustained investment by Commonwealth, state and territory

and local governments. All of these initiatives make important contributions to the Australian

climate research landscape. The actions outlined in this document represent the key steps to

enhance, coordinate and deliver climate science for Australia’s benefit. This science effort is the

basis of building and delivering the practical information we need to underpin our prosperity and

wellbeing.

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Chapter 2. Implications of Climate Change Climate change has impacts on ecosystems, coastal systems, fire regimes, food and water security,

health, infrastructure and human security. Impacts on ecosystems and societies are already

occurring around the world, including in Australia, broadly consistent with the last 30 years of

climate projections. Impacts vary from region to region and will likely continue to intensify and

interact with other stresses. Also, some amount of further warming is already locked into the global

climate system through the next decade, even with rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate change exacerbates inherent risks in the Australian climate, and brings new ones.

Heatwaves, droughts, bushfires, floods and tropical cyclones are all part of the Australian climate

experience. Over 85% of our population lives within 50 kilometres of the coast. Much of Australia’s

critical economic infrastructure is in our cities and ports and is vulnerable to sea-level rise and storm

surges. Australia’s agricultural, mining and other industries, are all vulnerable to increasing

frequency of severe heat and intensity of drought, floods and storms. Our terrestrial and marine

ecosystems are facing serious threats from climate change, including extreme weather events,

bushfires, and ocean acidification and marine heatwaves. 4,5

Figure 1. Australia’s mean temperature has warmed by around 1o since 19106

4 See State of the Climate 2018, BoM and CSIRO at http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/

5 Harris, Bowman et al, Nature Climate Change Vol 8, July 2018

6 Figure http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2016.pdf

19

Globally 2015-2018 were the four hottest years on record and 17 of the 18 hottest years on record

have occurred this century. This persistent trend in increasing global temperature means that the

earth’s surface is now just over 1 °C hotter than the pre-industrial era.

Ongoing warming in global temperature is projected, and the amount of warming beyond mid-

century depends on the emissions pathway the world follows. Under a very low emissions pathway,

global warming is projected to plateau at around 1 to 2.5°C (compared to the preindustrial era), but

warming of around 2-3 °C by mid-century and 3-5 °C by late century is projected under a very high-

emissions pathway.

Climate change does not only mean higher temperatures—it increases the likelihood of many

weather-related extreme events. Increases in temperature directly affect the environment, economy

and society, and these effects are likely to be compounded by climate change-induced events such

as severe storms, heatwaves, more extreme droughts and floods and sea-level rise. These have

direct economic impacts on all sectors of the Australian economy, our natural and managed

terrestrial and marine ecosystems and on the health and wellbeing of individuals, communities, and

society as a whole.

Figure 2: Trends in sea surface temperatures in the Australian region from 1950 to 20177

7 State of the Climate 2018: Trends in sea surface temperatures in the Australian region from 1950 to 2017

(data source: ERSST v5, www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/). BoM and CSIRO

20

The world’s oceans play a critical role in the climate system. More than 90 per cent of the additional

energy arising from global warming is taken up by the ocean. As a result, the ocean is warming both

near the surface and at depth, with the rate varying between regions and depths.

As the ocean warms it also expands. This thermal expansion has contributed about a third of the

observed global sea level rise of about 20 cm since the late 19th Century. The remaining rise comes

from the loss of ice from glaciers and polar ice sheets, and changes in the amount of water stored on

the land. The confidence range of global sea level change has continuously improved because there

has been more analysis of satellite altimetry, the time series has lengthened, and the various

contributions to sea level have now all been reliably quantified and accounted for. Since 1993 sea

level has been rising at about 3.2 cm per decade8.

The ocean surface around Australia has warmed at a similar rate to the air temperature. Sea surface

temperature in the Australian region has warmed by around 1 °C since 1910, with eight of the ten

warmest years on record occurring since 2010. Part of the East Australian Current now extends

further south, creating an area of more rapid warming in the Tasman Sea. This extension is having

numerous impacts on marine ecosystems, including many marine species extending their habitat

range further south.

Warming of the ocean has contributed to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves. There were

long and intense marine heatwaves in the Tasman Sea and around southeast Australia and Tasmania

from September 2015 to May 2016 and from November 2017 to March 2018. Scientific analysis

shows that the severity of both events can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Recent

marine heatwaves are linked to coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef and damage to other

important ecosystems such as kelp forest diebacks.

In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all

continents and across the oceans. Evidence of climate-change impacts is strongest and most

comprehensive for natural systems. Some impacts on human systems have also been attributed in

part to climate change. Changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological

systems, affecting water resources in terms of water availability and quality9.

Many terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal

activities, migration patterns, abundances, and species interactions in response to climate change.

While only a few recent species extinctions have so far been attributed to climate change, such as

the Bramble Cay melomys, past natural global climate changes slower than the current rate of

anthropogenic climate change have been implicated in major ecosystem shifts and species extinction

events over the past several million years9.

Based on many studies around the world covering a wide range of regions and crops, negative

impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts. A smaller

number of studies have identified some positive impacts mainly in mid- and high-latitude regions,

though it is not yet clear whether the balance of impacts will be negative or positive in these regions.

Climate change has negatively affected wheat and maize yields for many regions. Effects on rice and

soybean yield have been smaller in major production regions. Observed impacts relate mainly to

8 See State of the Climate 2018, BoM and CSIRO at http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/ 9 IPCC Working Group 3 Assessment Report 5 AR5 summary-for-policymakers.pdf

21

production aspects of food security with several periods of rapid food and cereal price increases

following climate extremes in key producing regions9.

The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) identified agriculture as one of

Australia’s most exposed industries to climate variability and extremes. Australia’s farmers have

always managed for and adapted to a variable climate and weather events, particularly extreme

events. The most pervasive impact is drought, which disrupts cropping programs, reduces stock

numbers, and erodes the productivity and resource base of farms, threatening long-term

sustainability.

Moderate warming of Australia’s climate system may benefit some crops, provided they are not

water stressed, in some colder locations. Warmer temperatures together with more variable rainfall

are already leading to long-term declines in soil moisture over much of southern Australia. Higher

atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations may enhance growth in some plants (including some

weed species). Pests, weeds and diseases will change in abundance and distribution with the

potential for new species introductions or “sleeper” species to become invasive.

Without adaptation, the grazing industry is likely to experience declining pasture productivity and

quality, livestock heat stress, changes to pests, weeds and diseases, and increased soil erosion,

driven by higher temperatures and evaporation rates, lower soil moisture or changes in the

frequency or intensity of droughts and intense storms10.

Figure 3. There has been a shift towards drier conditions across south-western and south-eastern

Australia during the April to October winter cropping season.11

10 Adapting Agriculture To Climate Change, Preparing Australian Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for the Future Edited by: C. Stokes, M. Howden 2010 11 State of the Climate 2018

22

Changes to seasonal climate characteristics relative to crop and fruit growing seasons can have

impacts through, for example, reductions in pome fruit (e.g. apples and pears) yields due to changes

in frost duration and timing, and lower wheat yields (up to 20%) when early heat stress coincides

with flowering. Overall, production levels are projected to decline over much of southern Australia

as a result of climate change12.

There is also a growing understanding of the links between climate change and human health.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change is likely to have

an increasing number of mostly adverse effects on human health, including mortality and morbidity

related to extreme weather, especially heat. In addition, the following climate-related hazards to

human health are projected: increases in water and food-borne disease; changes in seasonality and

distribution of vector-borne diseases (that is diseases spread by organisms, such as mosquitoes) and;

adverse impacts on community and mental health.

In 2017 the World Climate Research Programme and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic

Commission (IOC) stated that sea-level rise has accelerated over the past 100 years due to global

warming. Natural scientists, social scientists, coastal engineers, managers and planners, recognized

that sea-level rise represents a major challenge for coastal societies. To improve understanding of

the complex risks of sea-level change and projections of future sea level rise, scientists need to work

more closely with a broader stakeholder community. This is essential for assessing sea-level rise

impacts, as well as for enhancing climate mitigation and adaptation measures13.

Coastlines are vulnerable due to the combination of extreme events such as storm surges and

waves. Many coasts have dense and growing populations and economies, and important

ecosystems. Major human and economic losses have occurred due to storm surges, e.g. over

$US 100 billion losses and nearly 2,000 deaths during Hurricane Katrina (US, 2005) and over 100,000

deaths during Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar, 2008).

Global sea levels started to rise in the mid-19th century and increased by about 14 to 17 cm during

the 20th century. The two largest contributions to this rise are the expansion of the oceans as they

warm and the addition of mass from melting glaciers. The largest uncertainty and concern in this

respect is the stability of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Substantial ice-mass loss from

these regions would have significant consequences for global sea level rise. Without rapid and

significant cuts to global greenhouse gas emissions the world is likely to be committed to several

meters of sea-level rise in the next few centuries.

Increased emissions of carbon dioxide has also brought a new risk to our oceans in the form of ocean

acidification. Increased ocean acidification is already having impacts on many ocean organisms.

Combined with higher ocean temperatures and lower oxygen in many ocean regions, it is likely to

have significant impacts on fisheries, aquaculture, marine ecosystems and tourism.

12 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility Policy Guidance Brief 4 – Adapting to agriculture to climate change 13 World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)/Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) communiqué -Sea Level 2017 Conference Outcomes Statement

23

Box 2: Natural disasters already occur in Australia: does climate change matter?

Figure B2. The costs of natural disasters, many of them climate-related, are likely to increase by 2050

without including the additional impacts of climate change on extreme weather14.

1. One quarter of Australia’s population, and 28 per cent or $425.5 billion of Australia’s gross

domestic product (GDP) is in local government areas with high to extreme flood risk.

2. Part of the Melbourne CBD (with 450,000 workers) is at very high risk of floods.

3. 2.2 million Australians live in local government areas with high and extreme risk of bushfire.

4. $326.6 billion worth of GDP (or 20.3 per cent of the Australian economy) and 3.9 million people

(17.3 per cent of the population) are in local government areas with a high to extreme risk of

tropical cyclones.

Research to map physical climate changes to sectoral risks, and quantify the costs, is essential. Only

when this information is available can effective decisions be made about the balance of investments

in adaptation and mitigation.

14 Deloitte Access Economics 2017 Building Resilience in our States and Territories. 120pp. $39AUD billion in present value terms, 2017.

24

Globally we are seeing enormous costs and losses arising from extreme weather events, many likely

to be climate-related. Analysis by insurer Munich Re15 shows that 2017 was the second-costliest year

on record for natural disasters at $US330 billion for overall losses and the highest on record in

insured losses at $US135 billion—with 81% of the total losses from weather events and 89% of

insured losses from weather events respectively.

In 2017, 93% of all natural disaster events were weather-related and losses from weather-related

disasters broke all previous records. The United States alone experienced 16 natural disasters that

cost the economy more than $US300 billion including Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. The World

Meteorological Organisation estimates that in 2016 natural disasters globally resulted in insurance

costs of $US175 billion. Three-quarters of these costs were from weather events.16 In Australia, the

costs of natural disasters are projected to reach $39 billion per year by 2050 without including the

additional impacts of climate change on extreme weather.17

The characteristics of individual extreme weather events are, by their nature, difficult to predict. It

can also be difficult to determine if they are changing in intensity, frequency or location. However,

when certain climate drivers are clearly in operation, such as El Nino, we now know that the

likelihood of extreme weather events is increased. The warming of Australia’s climate over the past

century has also contributed to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events and dangerous

bushfire weather in some regions18. Our improved knowledge of climate science has allowed us to

better prepare for changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. A challenging

aspect of increasing climate-related natural disasters is that the costs are not likely to be borne

evenly from year to year. Thus funding disaster recovery under climate change may become

increasingly complex and difficult.

15 Munich Re Natural Catastrophe Review 2017 https://www.munichre.com/en/media-

relations/publications/press-releases/2018/2018-01-04-press-release/index.html

16 WMO 2017 Five priorities for weather and climate research. Nature V552 pp168-170

17 Deloitte Access Economics 2017 Building Resilience in our States and Territories. 120pp. $39AUD billion in

present value terms, 2017.

18 See State of the Climate 2018, BoM and CSIRO at http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/

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Chapter 3. Key Components of Australia’s Climate

Research Effort Maximising the benefits from our investments in climate research requires a cohesive strategy and

coordinated effort. There are six core elements to the Australian climate science landscape, all of

which are needed to provide decision makers the information they need to manage climate risk. This

science effort is the basis of building and delivering the practical information we need to underpin

our prosperity and our wellbeing in a variable and changing climate.

Each of these elements has a vital role in ensuring Australia’s climate research continues to deliver

the information needed to understand the effects of our changing climate, to be able to respond to

changing knowledge and provide the products and services the community, industry and

governments require.

3.1 Observations, Data, Analysis and Infrastructure

Accurate weather, climate and Earth system models depend on extensive observations.

Observations of the climate system allow us to understand key climate processes and phenomena,

track how and why the climate is changing, project future climate changes and better understand

climate-related risks. Observations are also needed to monitor and assess the efficacy of climate

policies.

Long-term, consistent climate observations (atmosphere, land, ocean, marine and terrestrial

biospheres and cryosphere) are required to monitor climate variability and extremes, underpin

climate change detection and attribution, track trends and abrupt changes in the climate and

provide information with which to inform and test models. These are necessary to understand the

risks and opportunities presented by a variable and changing climate, and support the development

of adaptation and mitigation responses. Through the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO),

the global community has identified the Essential Climate Variables (Figure 3) – these are physical,

chemical or biological variables that critically contribute to the characterization of Earth’s climate.

Observing the Earth’s climate system requires access to key research infrastructure, such as the

Marine National Facility’s research vessel, Australia’s Antarctic icebreaker and research stations, and

collaborative facilities provided through the Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) and the

Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN).

Satellite data forms a critical component of the Global Climate Observing System. Rapid

technological developments in satellite-based Earth observation and international investment have

provided new data sets, for example on forest cover, soil moisture and salinity that have climate

relevance. These complement other data used in model-based forecasts and projections. Australia

must optimally position itself to take advantage of these new data streams to define the current

climate, to measure ecosystem responses to changes in the climate system and to test and refine

climate and Earth System models. For example, relatively new climate observations such as soil

moisture and lightning detection are becoming increasingly important in understanding and

responding to climate risks such as bushfire conditions.

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The data from these observing systems are essential inputs into climate research and climate

models. Weather and climate services are only possible with a well-supported and comprehensive

network of measurements, with data maintained in a secure and accessible way.

Figure 3: World Meteorological Organisation defined Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)

While high quality climate records remain essential to traditional weather observation and

prediction, many users’ needs have moved beyond historical observational data sets that determine

long-term trends variable by variable. A new generation of climate services utilise “full-field

observational data” to determine risks from climate change and extreme weather, to support the

management of natural and built resources. The data layers that underpin these climate services

depend on the best available analyses of past weather through re-analysis, the present through

comprehensive observational networks and the near future through operational predictions and

downscaled projections. Ideally these services would function within a common framework so that

similar tools to manage, archive and analyse data can be applied.

Our physical research infrastructure requires long-term, strategic planning and investment to

maintain and extend current research assets, such as research ships, supercomputer facilities with

integrated advanced research data management systems and ocean and atmospheric monitoring

facilities, as well as the development and implementation of new observation and data-handling

technologies. Emerging technologies such as low-cost sensors for land and ocean deployment also

need support for research and development.

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Maintaining existing atmospheric, land and ocean observing networks is critical. In addition, gaps in

observation systems need to be addressed to maximise Australia’s capacity to fully understand the

causes and impacts of changing and variable climates. There are geographical and temporal gaps in

otherwise well-monitored climate variables (such as temperature and rainfall). There are other

variables, such as soil moisture and carbon fluxes, which are under-observed in many locations.

Geographic gaps include the coastal ocean, parts of regional Australia, the Southern Ocean and

Antarctica. Important climate observation data for Australian research includes records of:

air temperature, precipitation characteristics including frequency, intensity, type, and

duration, hail size and intensity, surface air pressure, winds and water vapour including

surface air temperature data through the Australian Climate Observations Reference

Network (ACORN-SAT);

localised atmospheric phenomena such as tornado and downburst events;

atmospheric gases including carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases,

aerosols and ozone, from locations such as the Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station in

Tasmania;

high precision in-situ analysers and remotely-sensed GHG concentrations measured from

satellites and aircraft for GHG inventory measurements and analysis;

Antarctic ice sheet present state and change;

ocean currents, salinity and temperature, oxygen and nutrients, including though the

Integrated Marine Observation System Argo float network, research vessel-based

measurement and satellite observing systems;

sea ice extent and thickness;

surface radiation budget and fluxes of carbon, water and energy between the Earth’s

surface and the atmosphere including terrestrial ecosystems (such as the rate of

evapotranspiration, solar reflection from plants and uptake of carbon dioxide through

photosynthesis) through for example, the TERN OzFlux network;

satellite data and radar climatology for longer predictions, projections and reanalysis

which support direct applications and carbon models;

sea level;

ocean carbon chemistry and ocean acidification.

These observational data are complemented by insights into longer-term climate dynamics provided

by paleoclimate records from ice cores, corals and tree rings. Paleoclimate data provides for proxy

records at annual resolution for the last thousand years or longer and is essential to quantify

improved estimates of natural decadal-to-century scale climate variability. Ice cores can provide

climate data dating back to 800,000 years and potentially even longer.

Records of past climate from paleoclimate and historical archives provide crucial information on the

frequency and intensity of extreme events and how our baseline climate is changing. These records

can improve the skill of climate models and build confidence in projections of future climate and

extremes. Analysis of this data can also inform products and services to assist end-users in the

agriculture and water sectors, as just two examples, to understand the full extent of Australia’s past

climate variability and to manage climate risk.

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Atmospheric-based methods to complement “bottom-up” GHG inventories

Advances in atmospheric GHG observations can provide greater transparency, accuracy, and

completeness in reporting national inventories through the UNFCCC, when paired with already

established bottom-up inventory-based methods. Assessment of progress in greenhouse gas (GHG)

abatement requires evidence-based validation of emission sources and sinks.

New “top-down” approaches use stable, high precision in-situ analysers as well as remotely-sensed

GHG concentrations measured from satellites and aircraft in conjunction with atmospheric models.

These innovations capture the strengths of inventory-based methods while bringing transparency

and enhanced accuracy. They have major application in improving estimates of GHG emissions in

landscapes such as cities, and of Synthetic Greenhouse Gases (SGGs) such as CFCs which have

become the third biggest component of anthropogenic radiative forcing.

CSIRO’s Climate Science Centre is beginning to build a network of in situ monitoring stations in

Melbourne, for carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide and SGGs with a view to being able to

deliver timely and policy relevant information to governments.

The implications of gaps in observational data need to be well understood, including where data are

needed to understand, model and monitor key climate processes, and where there is inadequate

sampling or a lack of observational infrastructure. Given the specialised nature of this work, a

reference group of domain experts and agency representatives should be convened to undertake a

gap analysis and prioritisation process.

Action:

1) Convene a technical reference group to identify gaps in observation systems, data streams, their

analysis and application with emphasis areas identified through engagement with climate

information users.

1a) the technical reference group should report to the Advisory Group on gaps, risks, their

implications, priorities and options by December 2019, with support from the Department of

the Environment and Energy, the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science and the

Department of Education.

29

Reanalysis datasets

Information on wind speed, rainfall, temperature, precipitation, pressure and soil moisture,

compiled in a spatially and temporally continuous format, is needed for analysis of high impact

weather including tropical cyclones, east coast lows, fire weather and heatwaves. However,

historical observation records are often incomplete. An approach to overcome this limitation is to

assimilate historical observations into a weather model to produce consistent set of spatial and

temporal data, known as a "reanalysis". Global reanalyses are available from global centres and are

widely used for climate research, but not at resolutions that meet the needs for regional or local

information. In response to this need BoM has been undertaking a high-resolution reanalysis using

the ACCESS model at 12 km grid scale with some areas downscaled to 1.5 km scales to provide

consistent data sets over time. These reanalyses can be used to better understand weather

behaviour. High resolution reanalysis data provides an innovative tool for understanding the

changing climate risk associated with extreme events such as major fires and flooding events.

The Australian-developed reanalysis aligns model output with observations and provides consistency

when analysing the atmosphere over years and decades. In turn, these analyses improve our ability

to understand the impacts of climate drivers such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean

Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation on droughts, floods, heatwaves and

other extreme events. This greater understanding underpins work on better forecasts and analysis of

climate risk and resilience, allowing for better planning and management.

Reanalysis methods can also be applied to the ocean. CSIRO has led the development of a global

ocean reanalysis at 10 km resolution. CSIRO and BoM have also demonstrated capability for fine

(approximately 2km) scale ocean reanalysis in the Great Barrier Reef region. These tools, now

available for climate research, could be further extended. A high resolution wind and pressure field

reanalysis of Australia’s territorial waters would greatly enhance studies of coastal impacts, including

from storm surge and waves.

Action:

2) The Bureau of Meteorology, with support from CSIRO and research institutions, should prioritise

projects to develop, enhance and maintain consistent high resolution climate datasets covering the

Australian land mass and surrounding ocean regions including high resolution subdomains

encompassing all capital cities and major regional population centres.

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Box 3 - Emissions Estimates for Synthetic Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depleting Substances

CSIRO’s Climate Science Centre provides the Australian government with global emissions estimates based on atmospheric observations from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment Network (AGAGE)19. Data from the Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station (part of the AGAGE Network) are also used to calculate Australian emissions for a large range of synthetic greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, which are generally also highly potent greenhouse gases.

Using atmospheric (“top-down”) observations provides greater transparency, accuracy, and completeness in reporting national inventories through the UNFCCC, when combined with estimates determined using well-established bottom-up inventory-based methods. Indeed, this dual approach combining bottom up inventory estimates with estimates determined from atmospheric measurements is well established for the synthetic greenhouse gases, which mostly have no natural sources and are emitted from known locations. For instance, the dominant source of the refrigerant gas HFC-134a measured at Cape Grim is Melbourne; while PFCs (perfluorocarbons) are emitted only from aluminium smelters.

This two-pronged approach to emissions estimation demonstrates some of the additional robustness that emissions estimates of CO2 and CH4 would garner from validating inventory approaches with atmospheric measurements. For example, Figure B120 shows that top down emissions estimate of HFC (a significant synthetic greenhouse gas) have diverged from the Australian National GHG Inventory estimates since ca. 2011. While the Inventory assumes time-invariant emission factors (based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-recommended ‘methods for estimating national GHG emissions), the atmospheric measurements at Cape Grim may be showing the early effects of the refrigerant industry acting to reduce its emissions.

Figure B3: Australian emissions of HFCs -125, -134a, -143a, -23) and other HFCs (-32, -152a, -227ea, -236fa, -365mfc) estimated from atmospheric data measured at Cape Grim, with modelling techniques, and in the Australian National GHG Inventory [DoEE, 2017], expressed in units of M tonne CO2-e.`

19 Prinn, R. G., R. F. Weiss, P. J. Fraser, P. G. Simmonds, D. M. Cunnold, F. N. Alyea, S. O'Doherty, P. Salameh, B. R. Miller, J. Huang, R. H. J. Wang, D. E. Hartley, C. Harth, L. P. Steele, G. Sturrock, P. M. Midgley and A. McCulloch, A history of chemically and radiatively important gases in air deduced from ALE/GAGE/AGAGE, J. Geophys. Res.,105(D14), 17751-17792, doi:10.1029/2000JD900141, 2000. 20 Dunse, B. L., P. J. Fraser, N. Derek, P. B. Krummel and L. P. Steele, Australian and global HFC, PFC, sulfur hexafluoride nitrogen trifluoride and sulfuryl fluoride emissions, Report prepared for Australian Government Department of the Environment and Energy, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Australia, iv, 29 pp., 2017.

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3.2 Climate Process Studies

Ongoing research is needed to provide the data and understanding to improve our knowledge of the

atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial, cryospheric and hydrological processes that determine our global

and regional climates. This research directly supports the improvement of Australian climate

modelling and weather prediction.

Further integration of monitoring and process studies is also needed to improve our understanding

of the variability of ocean carbon cycling and ocean acidification in the Southern Ocean, the eastern

Indian Ocean and the south west Pacific. This understanding is needed to inform global policies to

stabilise climate and to anticipate carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change and extreme events.

These processes remain a major source of uncertainty in climate modelling and projections with

consequences for emissions mitigation, risk assessment, and adaptation decision-making. Climate

process studies enhance our ability to meaningfully evaluate climate model results, thus informing

our knowledge of which modelled changes are plausible and which are not.

Figure 4. Schematic view of the components of the climate system, their processes and interactions21.

21 AR4 Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis FAQ 1.2, Fig 1. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1/historical-overview-of-climate-change-science/

32

In addition, gaps in fundamental understanding of critical climate processes, for example those that

govern cloud formation, are barriers to greater confidence in modelling and long-term projections of

climate change. Lastly there are emerging patterns of weather and climate phenomena being driven

by changes to the climate system that need ongoing research. These include compound events such

as drought conditions closely followed by extreme storm and rainfall events, and extreme weather

seasons, where the seasons exhibit multiple features that are outside the bounds of historical data

such as the summer seasons of 2013 and 2018.

Given these knowledge gaps in critical areas and the associated uncertainties, research efforts

should be directed at addressing these priority questions, with an aim to maximise the return on

information and benefit for the broadest range of end users. Many processes in the climate system

affect Australia through changes in their frequency, extent and intensity. Climate processes which

continue to require focussed effort include:

Atmosphere

cloud dynamics and feedbacks;

aerosol (air pollution, dust, and smoke) effects;

tropical convection and its influences on cloud and rainfall patterns, regional climates and

circulation responses to climate forcing;

air-sea interaction processes in the tropics and extra-tropics, especially in the Pacific and

Indian Ocean sectors;

processes contributing to “atmospheric river” formation as result of tropical-extratropical

interaction, also referred to as the NW-SE cloud band;

organised mesoscale convective systems and severe thunderstorms;

circulation response to climate forcing (e.g. important for storm track, dynamic response

projections);

atmospheric chemistry and stratospheric ozone processes, tropospheric chemistry and

Southern Hemisphere climate interactions;

Land and cryosphere

land carbon uptake and surface-atmosphere carbon exchange;

vegetation and land-cover interactions;

processes controlling future changes in rainfall over different regions of Australia;

drivers of coastal storm process, including storm surge and/or wave events and altered

direction of waves, associated with shifting storm tracks;

the dynamics of Antarctic ice sheets;

high-latitude sea-ice and ice-ocean interactions;

Ocean

deep ocean circulation and ocean carbon uptake;

oceans’ momentum balance, heat transport and boundary currents;

ocean convection, eddy development and fluid physics, subduction, sub-mesoscale

processes, flow over topography and tracer circulation;

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drivers of El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation,

Madden-Julian Oscillation and their impacts on droughts, floods, heatwaves and other

extreme events.

Action:

3) The ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX), in collaboration with research agencies

and institutions, should identify significant gaps in understanding and areas of uncertainty in key

climate processes affecting climate predictability and climate projections for Australia and

surrounding regions.

3a) The CLEX report should also consider prioritisation and resourcing needed to address

gaps in knowledge and research efforts in Australia over the next decade.

3b) CLEX should report its findings to the Advisory Group by December 2019.

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3.3 Climate Modelling and Projections

Climate models are systems of differential equations based on the basic laws of physics, including

conservation of mass, energy and momentum, fluid motion, and chemistry. To “run” a model,

scientists represent the land surface, oceans, cryosphere and atmosphere as a 3-dimensional grid,

apply the differential equations, and evaluate the results. Atmospheric models calculate winds, heat

transfer, radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology within each grid and evaluate

interactions with neighbouring points. Due to their complexity and the sheer number of calculations

involved, these mathematical representations of the climate system need to run on very powerful

computers. Global climate models (GCMs) are the best tools we have available for projecting climate

change and its impacts22.

Figure 5. Visual representation of a global climate model23

Climate models simulate large-scale synoptic features of the atmosphere, such as the progression of

high and low pressure systems, and large scale oceanic currents and overturning. Since the 1960s

climate models have undergone continuous development, and now incorporate interactions

22 NOAA The first climate model; https://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/ welcome.html#model

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between the atmosphere, oceans, sea ice and land surface. GCMs have shown a substantial and

robust warming signal resulting from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations over several

generations of model development.

Confidence in climate and Earth system models comes from their basis in fundamental physical

principles, and from their ability to represent important features of the current and past climate.

Many important physical processes occur at finer spatial scales, including radiation and precipitation

(rainfall) processes, cloud formation and atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The impacts of these

processes are included in ‘parameterisations’, where their effects are approximated on the coarser

model grid. Parameterisations are developed from intensive theoretical and observational study,

and essentially act as ‘sub-models’ within the climate model itself. However uncertainties do remain,

particularly in the details and timing of changes—another reason to maintain our efforts in

Observations (described in Section 3.1) and Climate Process Studies (Section 3.2).

Figure 6. A schematic of a global climate model. The solid arrows depict the primary domain

connections and the dotted arrows show the key flows and feedbacks of energy, water and carbon

between the various domains23.

23 From https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-campus/modelling-and-projections/climate-models/

36

Confidence in projections is greater in some variables (e.g. temperature) than others (e.g.

precipitation). These uncertainties are reflected in the ranges presented for projections. A broad

suite of climate variables has been analysed to develop climate projections. Consequently, there is

no single “best” model or subset of models, and climate projections vary between models.

Confidence in projections is increased when multiple models are used in ensembles.

Although the spatial resolution of climate models has improved over time, the relatively large grid

scales of models limit our ability to represent of some important regional and local scale features

and climate processes. These features can be important for understanding, for example, the local

distribution of rainfall. To try to include such features, techniques for downscaling can be applied.

This involves embedding higher resolutions for some variables within a global model, or using robust

statistical relationships between local scale climate and broad scale climate features.

Model downscaling is the process by which coarse-resolution global climate model outputs are

translated into finer resolution climate information, so that they better account for regional climatic

influences, such as local topography. This gives a much deeper understanding of climate impacts and

allows us to better identify risks to cities, infrastructure and communities.

Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS)

The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) has been developed to

provide a weather forecasting, climate and Earth system modelling system with model components

specifically tailored to Australia’s climate. The development of ACCESS has been led by BoM and

CSIRO, with significant contributions from the university sector, particularly the ARC Centre of

Excellence for Climate Extremes and its predecessor, the Centre of Excellence for Climate System

Science. ACCESS is built on the UK Met Office's Unified Model and the US National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration’s Modular Ocean Model with additional Australian-developed modules

for the land surface (CABLE) and ocean biogeochemistry (WOMBAT).

ACCESS is a critical component of Australia’s climate science effort and is supported directly and

indirectly by several Australian Government portfolios. Outputs from ACCESS are used for

forecasting weather, including tropical cyclones and fire weather, for generating seasonal climate

predictions, for building future global climate scenarios in climate change assessments (e.g. CMIP),

for regional climate projections for Australia and our neighbours; and for research into climate

processes. The Earth System configuration of ACCESS provides simulations of the global and regional

carbon cycle—including its uptake in the land and oceans—and carbon-climate feedbacks. This

provides plausible future climate scenarios under different global emissions pathways.

The ongoing development of ACCESS as Australia’s weather, climate and Earth System Modelling

capability is a national priority because it is fundamental tool for forecasting weather and

understanding long-term climate risks. ACCESS can be configured for the following purposes and

applications:

the best available physical global climate model;

an Earth system enabled climate model (i.e. interactive carbon cycle and atmospheric

chemistry);

a model suite that provides climate predictions from seasons to years to decades;

37

a high resolution regional climate model capability for applications such as hydrological

modelling, urban planning, and carbon and water management.

Figure 7: Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) components

configured for climate and Earth system model simulations, and the essential capabilities that

support its functionality

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Outputs from ACCESS provide valuable information for agriculture, water management, industry,

health, infrastructure, energy, transport, government and emergency services. A fully developed

climate and Earth system model that captures unique aspects of the Australian and regional

environment, both terrestrial and marine, is needed to fully understand the impacts of climate

change and variability on Australia.

There is growing demand for climate analyses at local scales requiring model downscaling

capabilities. ACCESS forms a strong base for this capability. The development of an ACCESS-based

climate downscaling capability offers the opportunity for a nationally consistent approach to climate

downscaling. This is important as it would allow consistent risk analysis across state borders—critical

for business operations and infrastructure that cross state boundaries, such as electricity networks.

Downscaling has the potential to enhance our understanding in some key areas such as extreme

rainfall, frost frequency, water availability. There will remain a need for statistical downscaling

(statistically relating patterns in large-scale climate to the local climate) given the high

computational cost of dynamical downscaling (using output from large-scale climate models to

‘drive’ finer-scale climate models) and size of the Australian landmass.

Enhancements to ACCESS are planned to deliver higher resolution and greater accuracy for weather

and seasonal climate forecasts, decadal predictions, long-term climate projections and downscaling

to meet the needs of policy makers, the community and industry. Delivering these modelling

capabilities requires a matching enhancement to the provision and management of data and the

human resources and specialist capabilities and skills needed for interpretation and application of

the information generated. These analyses and model configurations will increasingly be deployed

on the next-generation of high performance computing platforms, with all the requisite information

technology skills that this will require. A critical issue requiring ongoing consideration is data storage

capacity, particularly for CMIP6 data for research uses, and for future ACCESS simulations. Due the

very large volumes of data generated by modelling on high-performance computing platforms

ongoing management of sufficient storage capacity and the associated costs will become critical.

These modelling capabilities will also require operational, research and funding agencies to work

cooperatively to develop the physical and human infrastructure of ACCESS. This will require:

collaboration across institutions and disciplines, an investment in people and the development of

new skills, continued engagement with the international climate research community, high

performance computing, software, model coding and infrastructure, and coupling to integrated

assessment models. The recent investment of $70 million for the National Computational

Infrastructure (NCI) to maintain Australia’s current Tier 1 (petascale) high performance computing

capability is critical to support climate model development, operations and capability within

agencies, and research institutions.

Australia currently has limited capability to provide climate forecasts on a scale of 1 to 10 years - a

timescale critically important to the marine, agriculture, energy and water sectors. The

Government’s 10-year investment in developing a decadal forecasting capability through the CSIRO

Climate Science Centre is a central component to generating multi-year climate projections. Further

efforts and resources will be required to support this capability and address the ongoing need to

expand high-performance computing and data storage capacity as models are improved. Currently

39

there are also certain modelled climate processes which need further research to resolve and clarify

their influence on model outputs and reduce uncertainties in sea surface temperature, sea ice

formation and ecological impacts. In a complementary project, BoM is investigating the potential for

extending the current ACCESS seasonal forecast system out to 3-5 years. Achieving reliable, multi-

year seasonal predictions, at spatial scales from local to global, will have many practical benefits for

Australian communities and industries.

All of these ACCESS projects and activities would benefit from being brought together in a more

coherent development and governance framework.

Action:

4) ACCESS partners including the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and key universities should review

and extend their collaborative effort to develop ACCESS as Australia’s national weather and climate

model platform, in cooperation with our long-standing international partners.

4a) the principles to guide the ongoing collaboration for the ACCESS model should be

defined and the governance and coordination arrangements improved. This could include

consideration of negotiating a new formal collaborative agreement between the partners;

and

4b) this collaboration should align with the Scoping Study for the Optimisation of the ACCESS

Model being led through the Department of Education and NCI secretariat, as part of the

Australian Government Research Infrastructure Investment Plan.

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Box 4. The World Climate Research Program—CMIP and CORDEX Projects

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) facilitates the analysis and prediction of climate

variability and change, with a focus on (i) climate predictability; (ii) determining the effect of human

activities on climate; and (iii) ensuring that this research is relevant and useful to society. The WCRP

coordinates climate research that cannot be done by any single nation—research that needs to be

sustained over decadal timescales and research that is relevant to the global climate system. Global

scientific collaboration is essential if we are to understand the global climate system, how it is

changing and why, and what plausible future climate trajectories might be.

The WCRP coordinates the development and evaluation of global climate models (GCMs) run by

modelling centres around the world, including Australia. The Coupled Model Intercomparison

Project (CMIP) delivers globally-consistent, quality-assured multi-climate-model data sets and

provides the global research community with a standardised set of experiment protocols, variable

model inputs and output formats. It also guides and directs the climate change science that

underpins IPCC Assessment Reports on climate change. CMIP data is also used for regional climate

projections. This includes the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)

program. CORDEX provides a powerful research framework to evaluate regional climate model

performance and produce best-available regional scale climate projections to inform robust climate

adaptation planning.

Figure B4. From Global Climate Model to local community scale climate projection (a) CMIP DECK

experiment suite24 and (b) CORDEX downscaling pathway visualisation25

The most recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in 2013 provided much of the scientific evidence base

for the 2015 Paris Agreement, demonstrating the value of this global scientific effort and the

importance of international collaboration and scientific coordination. Crucially, the WCRP provides

an enduring institutional framework that enables long-term planning, governance to ensure

transparent decision-making and supports the exchange of scientific knowledge. Australian climate

research and climate services are both contributors to, and beneficiaries of, this successful global

collaboration.

24 https://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgcm-cmip 25 Image credit Dr Andrew Wood, US National Centre for Atmospheric Research

41

Realizing an enhanced ACCESS capability as identified above will require explicit agreement from its

partners to progress ACCESS development in the form of a unified climate and Earth system model

as the primary means to provide weather forecasts as well as climate predictions and projections.

The model suite needs to be tailored to unique aspects of Australian climate, for example though

implementing an Australian developed land surface model component. Refinement of the model

components requires coordination to harmonise and align BoM, CSIRO and university research

efforts to maximise the return on investment. Research must also be aligned to generate the best

available weather and climate services to meet business and community needs.

ACCESS also incorporates modules developed and maintained by research groups in other nations,

including the UK Met Office, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical

Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the US Los Alamos National Laboratory. Our continued use of these

ACCESS components requires ongoing collaborations with these groups. Working with our

international partners will also be necessary to ensure access satellite data from overseas agencies

to support these modelling efforts. Through ACCESS, Australia provides the leading Southern

Hemisphere-based contribution to the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model

Intercomparison Project (CMIP).

Consistent with the international community, Australia uses a multi-method approach, called a

multi-model ensemble, through the World Climate Research Programme’s CORDEX program to

produce robust climate projections at regional scales. Like all global climate models, ACCESS cannot

be used exclusively as the primary means of producing climate projections. In this context, ACCESS is

one member of a larger global model ensemble. Without ACCESS Australia could not contribute to

this international multi-method approach for projections and downscaling through programs such as

CMIP and IPCC. This would create a major deficiency in Southern hemisphere focused climate

modelling and limit our understanding of the impacts on the Australian continent. We would also be

entirely dependent on other countries to do future research and analysis for us. This demonstrates

the importance of developing the ACCESS suite to allow Australia to contribute to and utilise global

ensembles and complement our work on Australian regional-scale climate models.

There is significant scope and potential for ACCESS to be used in targeted experiments by Australian

researchers. These experiments may be designed to enhance our understanding of processes

relating to climate variability and change, or to better understand particular aspects of climate

projections prepared from the CMIP ensemble of models. It’s important to note the different

ACCESS applications and needs of different groups across the research community. For example, for

use in the Bureau’s seasonal prediction system, the Bureau’s emphasis is on a high-resolution

version of ACCESS, whereas the Decadal Forecasting Project requires a streamlined version of

ACCESS to facilitate runs of large ensemble members. The diverging applications pose challenges for

the ACCESS partners to satisfy the needs of users within the available resourcing.

In addition to developing ACCESS capability, improvement in the level of user-support that is

available to those interested in using ACCESS is required. This is important for enhancing the uptake

and utility of ACCESS across the Australian (and international) research community.

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Figure 8: Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) showing various

configurations of the climate model components, countries of origin of the climate function

components and the relevant timescales the various configurations are optimised for26.

Advances in software development and coding expertise will be needed in Australia to keep up with

next-generation model development being applied in global research projects such as CMIP and

other international research commitments. The transition to new high performance computing

architectures and processors by our international partners will require ACCESS to undergo major

recoding within 5-10 years along with the supporting investment that will require. BOM and CSIRO,

26 *Note in Figure 8 the ACCESS ESM1.5 configuration also includes the Australian developed components CASA-CSP for terrestrial biogeochemistry and WOMBAT for ocean biogeochemistry (Not shown).

Climate function being modelled

Oceans Atmosphere Land surface Sea-ice

CMIP

MOM USA UM UK ACCESS– CM2

CABLE AU CICE USA

CSIRO-Decadal test

MOM USA GFDL-AM USA

ACCESS– ESM1.5 GFDL-LM USA GFDL-SIS USA

BoM-Seasonal

NEMO UK UM UK

JULES UK CICE USA

CSIRO-Decadal

production ACCESS ESM 1.5

ACCESS–G

ACCESS–R

ACCESS–C

ACCESS–TC

Bluelink Ocean

ACCESS– S APS– 2

MOM USA UM UK

CABLE AU CICE USA

Forecasts MOM USA

Climate model component glossary

APS

ACCESS

Australia Parallel Suite

Australian Community Climate

and Earth System Simulator

CICE

GFDL

GFDL–AM

Los Alamos sea ice model

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Atmospheric Model developed by GFDL

ACCESS–CM2 ACCESS Coupled Model GFDL–LM Land Model developed by GFDL

ACCESS–ESM1.5 ACCESS Earth System Model GFDL–SIS Sea Ice Simulator developed by GFDL

ACCESS–G ACCESS Global JULES UK Joint UK Land Environment Simulator

ACCESS–R ACCESS Regional MOM Modular Ocean Model

ACCESS–S ACCESS Seasonal NEMO UK Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean

ACCESS–TC ACCESS Tropical Cyclones UM Unified Model

CABLE Community Atmosphere Biosphere

Land Exchange Model

43

with the universities, are preparing for this multi-year process with the UK Met Office and other

partners.

Ongoing support for high performance computing, climate model development, operations and

maintenance within agencies, human resources, research institutions and the National

Computational Infrastructure (NCI) will be essential to develop a national capability in next-

generation exascale computing (systems capable of a billion, billion calculations per second).

Exascale computing systems are anticipated to be operational by 2020-21 in the US, China and EU

and represent a thousandfold increase in processing power over the current generation of petascale

supercomputers operating in Australia.

Next generation of climate projections

An Australia climate-prepared for the decades ahead is one informed by robust climate change

projections, integrated into decision-making across all sectors of society and the economy. This

vision requires projections that are plausible, scientifically credible, in forms and at temporal and

spatial scales relevant to decision-making, and kept up-to-date in a standardised operational

environment.

Australia has hundreds of billions of dollars in assets across sectors such as agriculture,

infrastructure, tourism, property and water which are exposed to climate risks. To make evidence-

based decisions about climate change, and to minimise the exposure to future climate risks,

Australia needs access to knowledge, data and information that is scientifically credible, up-to-date,

accessible and relevant to a wide range of stakeholders in the public and private sectors. There is an

enormous demand for science-based data and information from Australian climate researchers to

provide the evidence needed to accurately price, report and manage climate-related risks.

Demand is growing not only in terms of new users and new applications, but in new questions. User

requirements continue to increase in complexity and the demand for fit-for-purpose impacts

information is very large. Climate projections data (illustrated in Figure 8) must provide an evidence

base for Australian stakeholders to assess important existing and new questions such as—what if the

world does (or does not) meet the Paris Agreement targets? What if climate engineering is

employed? What if multiple climate extremes occur concurrently and stress-test our systems?

The next generation of Australian climate projections will need to assess and utilise the expanding

range of inputs to get maximum benefit from the latest developments and meet growing needs.

New data sources generated in Australia or from international programs include observed in situ and

satellite datasets, new reanalyses and new climate model simulation ensembles from Global Climate

Models and high resolution models inputs from the current CMIP6 projects . Downscaling and high-

resolution modelling is moving to greater coordination, and Australia should adopt this approach,

including participating fully in the CORDEX and CORDEX2 programs for intermediate downscaling,

and having a coordinated program for very high resolution modelling (grid size of 5 km to below 2

km) for specific applications, such as extreme events, rainfall and urban climate.

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Figure 9. Example of a climate projection of average temperature from: Climate Change in Australia

Technical Report Projections for Australia´s NRM Regions pp92.27

Figure 9.1: Time series for

Australian average temperature

for 1910–2090 as simulated in

CMIP5, relative to the 1950–2005

mean. The central line is the

median value, and the shading is

the 10th and 90th percentile

range of 20-year running means

(inner) and single year values

(outer). The grey shading

indicates the period of the

historical simulation, while three

future scenarios are shown with

colour- coded shading: RCP8 .5

(purple), RCP4 .5 (blue) and RCP2

.6 (green). ACORN-SAT

observations are shown in brown

and a series from a typical model

are shown into the future in light

purple.

27 Climate Change in Australia Technical Report Projections for Australia´s NRM Regions https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/media/ccia/2.1.6/cms_page_media/168/CCIA_2015 NRM_ TechnicalReport_WEB.pdf

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Australia needs to use the latest science, digital platforms, ‘big data’ management practices and

delivery models to provide climate change data and information tailored to the growing range of

stakeholders that now includes private industry and consultants. This delivery requires researchers

to engage more deeply and earlier with end-users than they have previously. Data platforms must

be compatible with other datasets and platforms needed to address climate change risks, such as

socio-economic vulnerability, exposure, land use and physical infrastructure data. A crucial

component is the provision of different levels of information, knowledge brokering expertise,

guidance and protocols for applying climate information and data. There is an increasing demand for

these services in response to an increased awareness of risk, legal liability and social-license-to-

operate regarding climate change impacts (see Section 3.4).

Action:

5) The NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub and key partners should develop a plan

by June 2020, for the program of next generation climate projections for Australia, including:

5a) undertaking further market research and stakeholder consultation to inform the work

program;

5b) assessing and utilising data sets and modelling methods to use the inputs more

effectively, for example, ensemble generation methods and constraints on projections

approaches;

5c) coordinating new regional scale modelling and integration for use in national projections;

5e) significantly enhancing links to climate services and knowledge brokering to the diverse

range of stakeholder groups.

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3.4 Climate Risk, Adaptation and Services

Over the course of human history, weather patterns have greatly influenced the growth of

commerce and communities. But in a world experiencing climate change, past assumptions about

the weather and climate no longer hold true. Local, regional and national governments, as well as

businesses, are grappling with their role as decision-makers. Climate data may be available but it is

often hard to find, understand and apply to decision-making. Both private and public sector decision-

makers need accessible, credible and relevant climate information to increase resilience to the more

intense and frequent weather extremes resulting from climate change and complementary

adaptation and mitigation plans.

Decision makers need climate risk information tailored to their organisations and sectors. A

comprehensive climate services capability would enable customers in industry, government and the

community to better manage their risks from a variable and changing climate. ‘Climate services’

describes the provision of climate information and products that enable decision makers in

government, industry and the community to understand and address the risks and opportunities of a

variable and changing climate. It is about supplying more bespoke information, rather than

publishing generic information as has been the primary practice to date. Developments in the

private sector, including the report of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, and

initiatives by the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority and the Australian Securities and

Investments Commission have changed the way businesses engage with climate risk and the

information they will need. This means climate information needs to be provided in new ways to

ensure business can use it more easily to make investment decisions and manage risk effectively.

With appropriate support, Australia has the opportunity to develop and enhance fit-for-purpose

information products and services that governments, resource managers and the business sector

need. End users of climate information include agriculture and resource managers, health

professionals, insurers, banks and global asset management firms, company directors, households

and governments at all levels. All are seeking more sophisticated analyses of future climate and

climate change, and tools that can be used to assess and manage their climate risks. To ensure these

growing needs are addressed, early and sustained engagement with industry users of climate

services is essential so scientists can understand the needs and provide information that will be of

practical use.

Opportunities for business and industry to participle in the co-design and development of the

climate products and services they will require must be maximised to ensure that the needs of these

end users of climate information are met. Linking business needs with ‘big data’ projects such as a

national ACCESS-based dynamic downscaling capability and the Digital Earth Australia initiative

would provide a comprehensive and powerful national data resource to accommodate climate-

related stakeholder needs and requirements.

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Box 5: Private and public climate service needs

Climate information services are relevant for everything from design standards for homes,

commercial buildings and infrastructure to business structuring and financing. Climate data are

essential inputs for government officials responsible for the management of public finances, assets,

such as electricity grids, government buildings and roads, and services such as emergency response

and assistance. In the private sector, decision-making on input sourcing, facility siting, insurance

needs, employee health and much more can be strengthened by gaining a better understanding of

future climate. The insurance industry is one sector that is already relatively advanced in sourcing

and applying climate data in their decision-making processes. However, companies in all fields need

to prepare for climate change and could benefit from tailored climate information services.

Overall, decision-makers from both private and public sectors typically want climate data that cover

their local area to as fine a scale as possible in formats that they can easily understand and

incorporate into existing decision-making frameworks. In most cases, however, there is a gap

between what is currently available and what they need. Climate information services can also carry

associated costs that some cannot afford, leaving them unprepared for foreseeable climate change.

Potential climate model users also face several other challenges: many do not have the expertise to

choose the best model (or ensemble of models), nor adequate knowledge to apply them— and

model scales may lack required details or may not take local climate features into account. On the

other hand, uncertainty increases as modelled data is downscaled, which may cause some end-users

to dismiss the data altogether and to opt for seemingly low-regret decisions, such as doing nothing28.

28 Adapted from WMO Bulletin Vol 67 (2) 2018 K. Bell-Pasht, D. Krechowicz; https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/why-does-access-good-climate-data-matter

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A key challenge is the translation of climate projection outputs into usable climate risk information

in increasingly complex scenarios. For example, ecosystem and natural resource management

decisions could be more effectively targeted, and with greater confidence in cost/benefit analyses

when combined with detailed climate simulations and projections. Ecosystem models coupled to

projections of future climates would provide powerful decision support tools.

Australia’s primary industries are well aware of the risks associated with our highly variable climate.

These risks are likely to be exacerbated under climate change with increases in temperature,

evaporation rates and changing rainfall patterns. Climate change has direct impacts on the

productivity and resilience of our farming systems. Combining downscaled regional and decadal

climate projections with the digital revolution currently underway in agriculture would allow the

sector to maximise opportunities with better information to support decision-making and

investments29.

Australia requires climate information that reflects the weather and changing climate of our region,

whereas our overseas partners tend to focus on climate in the Northern Hemisphere. The

development of information products and services that are fit-for-purpose for Australia requires

strong institutions, targeted research efforts, and funding. This needs be accompanied by high level

coordination of priorities and investments across governments and agencies. For example, the

National Resilience Taskforce has taken a whole-of-government and macro-economic approach to

the way Australia prepares for natural hazards and to develop a National Mitigation Framework. The

Framework will improve the resilience of critical infrastructure, cities and regions and involved broad

consultation with the states and territories and industry partners.

Action:

6) The Advisory Group should consider the potential for the future integration of climate projections

and data services. This should include:

6a) the costs, benefits and risks of combining seasonal and regional scale projections in a

nationally-consistent framework;

6b) exploring the potential for integration of climate data and projections with other Earth

systems information to enhance the relevance and utility of the climate information;

6c) identifying opportunities for co-design with business and community end users in the

development of supporting tools and systems.

Australian climate services would ideally be developed through a co-design process where the users

of climate information work together with the climate science community to develop effective

climate responses. This approach is consistent with the Global Framework for Climate Services which

has been developed by the WMO. Climate information that leads to better understanding of the

impacts of climate change domestically and internationally, and that can be integrated with social

and economic analyses, is critical for managing climate-related risks. Understanding the economic,

social and political impacts of a variable and changing climate is fundamental to assessing the

29 Accelerating Precision Agriculture to Decision Agriculture: https://www.crdc.com.au/sites/default/files/ P2D%20Ecomomic%20impact%20of%20digital%20ag%20-%20AFI%20Final%20Report.pdf

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consequential risks to Australian society including in regional and remote communities. Ideally,

Australia should build towards a comprehensive national climate service capability that would

provide decision makers with climate knowledge tailored to their organisations and sectors,

including the risk information required for adaptive responses to climate impacts and natural

disasters.

A focus on climate-related risk is increasing demand for the latest science information to be coupled

to outreach and engagement capabilities that can tailor and communicate this information to

decision makers. This ‘knowledge brokering’ capability is required to translate complex climate

science into information products and services needed by the economy. Knowledge brokering forms

a connecting bridge between researchers, business and the community and is essential for research

to be disseminated, but also for communicating the needs of users for new products or services back

to scientists. Knowledge brokers also facilitate new collaborations and maintain existing partnerships

between academic, government and private enterprise.

Climate services provide end-users with more tailored information and products specifically targeted

at their needs. To do this climate services rely on a multi-model ensembles using downscaled data to

provide information on climate and extreme events at appropriate regional and local levels as well

as integration with other digital information platforms. These services are therefore dependent on

Australia’s continued access to global climate modellings and downscaling programs like CORDEX.

Climate services also depend on associated domestic data processing and management capability,

and the specialist skills necessary to undertake detailed analysis and interpretation of the model

outputs.

Action:

7) The Earth Systems and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub, in conjunction with key partners in the Bureau

of Meteorology, CSIRO and the university sector should prepare an initial report on options for

building a national climate service capability that would provide decision makers with climate risk

information tailored to their organisations and sectors.

7a) The ESCC Hub and partners should report to the Advisory Group on their findings by June

2020.

7b) The provision of comprehensive knowledge brokering and climate services needed by

industry, government and the community to manage the risks of a variable and changing

climate should take account of the initiatives and ongoing work of key research agencies and

institutions and state and territory governments.

In considering a national climate service capability, the Committee recommends the Earth Systems

and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub should take account of:

the extensive contributions and ongoing work of state and territory governments;

the National Resilience Taskforce and its work to establish a national disaster risk

information capability to equip decision makers and Australians with the knowledge they

need to prepare for and respond to natural disasters;

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the Bureau of Meteorology’s efforts to ensure users of climate information participate in

development of climate resilience and risk management tools, models and systems that

meet the needs of Australian businesses and communities;

the CSIRO’s work with the Bureau of Meteorology, Universities and the Australian Antarctic

Division on current and future climate risks and climate projections, including the

development of the next generation global climate projections and a national downscaling

capability through ACCESS;

the CSIRO’s work to integrate climate information into the agricultural digital revolution,

improve near-term climate situational awareness, ensure greater resilience of farming

systems and increase opportunities to enhance productivity through proven adaptation

strategies;

the CSIRO’s research on harnessing digital technologies to improve the targeting and

delivery of climate change science and services; and

the ESCC Hub’s own consultation with industry, business and other end users of climate

services and engagement with climate product developers and service providers.

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Box 6. Indigenous communities and climate change

Indigenous communities and people are vulnerable to many climate-related risks. Coastal and island

communities are on the front line of rising sea levels, rainfall and heat extremes. Many inland

regions are likely to experience a hotter and drier climate. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander

people face the potential loss and degradation of the lands, waters and natural resources that they

have relied upon for generations. Climate change poses a major threat to the physical health of

Indigenous communities and their ability to sustain their traditional life, languages, knowledge and

cultural heritage.

Figure 1. Climate projection of additional hot spells (days over 40°C) and vulnerable (people younger

than 10 and over 65 years) Indigenous populations in 2030 under a high emissions scenario30.

At the same time, Indigenous communities are custodians of a wealth of knowledge about

Australia’s weather and climate, which underpins Indigenous peoples’ adaptive capacity and

strategies in response to climate change. This knowledge provides invaluable experience relevant to

contemporary challenges and can complement and benefit climate research and inform climate

services and adaptation plans.

The Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the National Environmental Science Program is

actively engaging with Indigenous stakeholders to provide targeted climate information that is

relevant and useful to Indigenous Australian communities, and to explore ways that traditional

knowledge can inform the Hub’s research. The Hub’s aim is ongoing collaboration and mutual

benefit.

The Hub’s focus is on developing targeted partnerships, expertise and products to meet the needs of

Indigenous stakeholders through case studies and engagement with key groups such as the

Traditional Owners of the Great Barrier Reef.

30 K. Hennessey et al, 2004 CSIRO Consultancy report for the Northern Territory Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Environment; and Risks from Climate Change to Indigenous Communities in the Tropical North of Australia, Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, 2009.

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The Hub’s aim is to learn what climate change information, capacity building and forms of

engagement would be of greatest value to Indigenous communities and provide well-informed

examples of success that provide the building blocks for future engagement and delivery.

These partnerships will not only guide the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub in their ongoing

engagement with Indigenous communities, but will also provide the broader climate change science

community with information to ensure their climate knowledge products and capacity building

activities meet the identified needs of traditional owners.

Artwork: Dixon Patten

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3.5 International Engagement and Dependencies

The challenge of improving understanding, prediction and projection of global climates is too big for

any single country to address. The inter-connected nature of the global climate system means that

collaborative international effort is essential. To influence the direction, and benefit from the

outcomes of this international research, Australia and its scientific community must be actively

engaged in key international research and policy.

Australia provides world-class research and input to international efforts such as the World

Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Scientific

Assessments of Ozone Depletion, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the World

Climate Research Program (WCRP) Grand Challenges and CMIP and CORDEX projects. This research

is needed, recognised and valued by our international partners and critically ensures Southern

Hemisphere, Southern Ocean and Antarctic climate drivers remain areas of international focus. It is

vital to maintain strong levels of engagement with international programs, initiatives and research

groups as Australia needs access to global data, information and expertise. It also allows the

opportunity for Australian and Southern Hemisphere issues and priorities to be incorporated into

global initiatives.

International engagement and participation should be improved and enhanced to further harness

international resources and expertise in priority climate research for Australia. A plan and process to

coordinate engagement would position the Australian research community to maximise the benefits

and opportunities current engagement does, and enhanced engagement could, provide. The lack of

current funding mechanisms to facilitate international engagement is a recurring challenge for

research groups. Often program funding is limited to domestic activities only which does not

consider the critical contributions made by international partners, or the need to maintain active

engagement with them.

Australia will continue to be reliant on international partnership and collaboration. The relatively

small, but strategic investments that Australia makes in building climate science partnerships,

leverages access to global capabilities that Australia could not otherwise afford. Partnerships that

provide access to observations, weather and climate modelling capability and satellite data are

particularly important.

The development of global climate models is representative of multinational global science

initiatives on par with collaborations in particle physics, astronomy and the genomics. Climate model

development requires a major investment of scientific time, effort and resources by our

international partners. Australia’s own ACCESS model is dependent on our partnerships with the

United Kingdom Met Office and other Unified Model Partnership countries such as India,

New Zealand South Korea and associate partners such as NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

Laboratory. Similarly it is vital we continue to engage with and contribute to the World Climate

Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), the CORDEX regional climate

modelling experiments and the IPCC Assessment Reports that draw on the outputs of these

programs, in order to maintain influence and access to the latest research, data and analysis

generated from global climate model research initiatives. Critical research and data is also provided

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through frameworks such as the NASA Earth Observing System and the World Meteorological

Organisation’s Global Climate Observing System.

Our ability to benefit from international infrastructure and expertise cannot be taken for granted

and will always be conditional upon Australia playing its role as a steward of Southern Hemisphere

climate science and observations. Australia makes significant investments in climate science and

remains a major contributor to global science efforts, especially in Antarctica and the Southern

Ocean, where our research is critical given most of the observed ocean heat uptake has occurred

there. Likewise we must maintain and continue our research efforts in the Pacific and Indian oceans

through research organizations like the Western Australian Marine Science Institute (WAMSI) and

the Australian Institute for Marine Science (AIMS).

To ensure Australia has the scientific capability to exploit opportunities and deliver information and

capacity into our region, it is essential we continue our engagement with other countries in

collaborative international climate research programs. Australia and the Asia-Pacific region already

have a demonstrable vulnerability to climate variability and extremes and climate change may

exacerbate these challenges. Australia also contributes to international field experiments, such as

the ‘Years of the Maritime Continent’ project. The Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent archipelago, a

unique mixture of islands and seas straddling the equator between the Indian and Pacific Oceans,

plays a pivotal role in global climate processes. Predicting extreme events and related diurnal cycle,

synoptic weather systems, interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the timing and

intensity of monsoons is of paramount socioeconomic benefit to Northern Australia, our region and

the world31.

There are opportunities to leverage international investment and capability to address domestic

information needs and science priorities. These include enhanced involvement in the European

Union’s (EU) Horizon 2020 climate research programs, the EU Copernicus Earth observation

program, new satellite missions, the World Climate Research Programme, the World Meteorological

Organisation’s Integrated Global Observing System, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

the Word Bank and Green Climate Fund, the expansion of the Argo ocean float network and other

observational and modelling projects. Sustained, well curated and globally shared Australian

observations, and ongoing commitment to premier global monitoring facilities, such as Cape Grim

Baseline Air Pollution Station and its science program, make Australia an integral part of the

international research effort. In turn, our participation is the currency that earns our access to

valuable data from overseas.

Action:

8) Agencies should maintain a national research focus on priority climate regions for Australia and

the Southern Hemisphere, such as the Pacific and Indian Oceans, Antarctica and the Southern

Ocean, and the Great Barrier Reef.

8a) these national priorities require maintaining strong engagement with international

programs including IPCC, WCRP Grand Challenges and CMIP6, as well as sustained

31 See: ‘Years of the Maritime Continent’; https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/ymc/

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observations and data collection, stewardship of and access to Australian data collections, to

ensure continuing domestic access to international data sources and capabilities.

Australia also has opportunities to significantly extend and enhance the direct and strategic benefits

to Australian and Asia-Pacific users of climate information from involvement in global climate

science. Australia recognises a stable, secure and prosperous Pacific is increasingly threatened by the

impacts of climate change.

Many Pacific and Indian Ocean nations are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, waves, and extreme

weather events which directly impact access to food, water and income and affect island

morphology, coastal flooding and erosion/deposition processes. Changes to our regional neighbours’

economies and livelihoods threaten the stability of already complex political and social relations,

increasing displacement and migration pressures and obstructing potential for economic

development. In 2015, Australia committed to provide AUD 1 billion in climate finance through the

Australian aid program to support developing countries to build resilience and reduce emissions.

Australia is on track to meet this commitment, having spent $766 million in the first three years of

the five year commitment period, including $84.57 million in the Pacific in 2017/18. To ensure the

value of these investments are maximised, deeper understanding of and sustained engagement with

Pacific based researchers and users of climate information is essential, including supporting the

Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS).

Action:

9) Agencies should work in collaboration to support the provision of climate services in the Asia-

Pacific, particularly in the South Pacific region through:

9a) the Australia-Pacific Climate Change Action Program (APCCAP) through the Department

of Foreign Affairs and Trade;

9b) Partnerships and collaboration with corporate and government enterprises financing

climate adaptation initiatives.

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3.6 Research Coordination and Funding

Strong governance, coordination and the efficient resourcing of contributing research agencies,

programs and centres is integral to delivering useful climate science to decision makers and the public.

The short-term funding cycles for many climate research groups and collaborations is a major

impediment to building strong, coherent and long-lasting communities of climate science research

which intern impedes achieving research outcomes. Changes to climate science programs and staffing

will also have long-term implications for climate science in Australia.

The 2016 National Research Infrastructure Roadmap identified “Earth and Environmental Systems” as

one of its nine priority areas. This and the Roadmap’s prioritisation of high performance computational

infrastructure, are important inclusions for the maintenance and development of skills and capabilities

in climate change science.

Many of Australia’s climate change research groups are on short-term funding arrangements, and yet

they have evolved into essential components of Australia’s climate change research capability.

Recognising and valuing the strengths of Australian climate science expertise and the vital role our

institutions and the researchers themselves play is important in a complex field requiring ongoing

investments in research infrastructure, skills and capabilities.

Figure 9. Key Institutions and organisations involved in Australian climate science

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The university sector, and government funding programs and agencies, have critical roles in training,

developing and supporting climate scientists and support staff. Universities provide the next generation

of climate researchers for government and the private sector. Priorities for training and development

need to be informed by the skills and research fields required to better understand climate and climate

change impacts on Australia.

The university sector also provides for and engages in the critical “blue-sky” high-risk research from

which new knowledge and many scientific advances owe their origins. This kind of research is not

necessarily driven by a specific goal but is exploratory by intention. Scientists aim to understand the

world and processes around them—and can reveal valuable and applicable knowledge as a

consequence—but not as the goal. In 1831 when physicist Michael Faraday displayed his new invention,

the electric dynamo; the question arose ‘what can it be used for?’ The answer at that time was very

little. Today however the developed, refined and applied knowledge from the first dynamo drives the

electric vehicle revolution forward at an extraordinary pace—and simultaneously offers the potential to

de-carbonise vehicle transportation worldwide. This is the essence and the promise of blue-sky science.

The opportunity to pursue scientific knowledge in a traditional research context yielded the

fundamental knowledge on which our current climate science, models and weather forecasts are built.

Today this knowledge informs countless decisions and affects millions of lives every day for the better.

The flow-through benefits of climate science go well beyond the research and academic sector. Ongoing

investment in the of human capital needs of climate science, and the resources vital to its success, will

continue to create highly skilled jobs. For example, in high performance computing and the emerging

fields of climate services, products and knowledge, and provide for new businesses and services that

decision makers increasingly need.

However, Australia’s climate science research landscape is complex, with multiple Government agencies

having responsibility for different research groups, research infrastructure and assets. This is overlaid

with multiple networks of data sharing, interdependencies and collaboration. Bringing together the

climate science researchers, funders and users can help ensure Australia’s science efforts become more

consistent and work efficiently to deliver the science we need. Coordination and funding need to be

consistent and predictable to deliver the maximum return on investment in an environment where

research needs are often complex and require long-term investment of time and resources.

Interdependencies among programs supported by different agencies and portfolios need to be

considered for large-scale and long-term climate research to be successful. From the research point of

view, systems need to be structured to minimise the amount of time and energy expended to secure

funding and support, often from multiple sources.

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Figure 10. Australian Government funded climate research activities and collaborative networks.

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These objectives can be pursued by an overarching and representative coordinating body or group that

can act as an advisory forum for the national climate science effort. In addition to existing Committee

representation this body should be comprised of a mix of senior officials and researchers representing

the primary science delivery agencies, research and education institutions, climate information service

users, states and territories. Commonwealth Government departments responsible for funding and

managing Australian climate research and infrastructure should also be represented with the addition of

the Department of Education as the primary agency for research infrastructure funding. The group

would be supported by the Department of the Environment and Energy and the Department of Industry,

Innovation and Science.

Action:

10) Reform and expand the National Climate Science Advisory Committee into a Climate Science

Advisory Group to provide high level advice on and coordination of Australia’s climate science effort,

and publicly-funded research infrastructure. In its work, the Group should:

10a) consider the current human capital needs and resourcing levels of the existing scientific

effort across the core climate research domains;

10b) consider the critical research skills and capabilities necessary to meet Australia’s future

climate science challenges with regards to emerging global megatrends and pace of

technological advancement;

10c) prepare an implementation plan to prioritise and coordinate Australian climate research,

with consideration of the work of the states and territories, to fully utilise the national climate

science capability.

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Appendix 1. Current initiatives in Australian climate

science The National Science Statement of March 2017 recognises that science is a collaborative, international

endeavour, and will deliver continuing economic and social benefits that ensure our ongoing prosperity.

There is an extensive body of publicly-funded climate research already underway in Australia, including

the initiatives detailed below.

The National Environmental Science Program (NESP) is a long-term commitment by the Government to

environment and climate research. NESP has funding of $145 million for six research hubs from 2015 to

2021, of which the Earth Systems and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub received funding of $23.9 million. The

role of the Hub is to ensure Australia’s policy and management decisions are effectively informed by

Earth systems and climate science, now and into the future. The Hub is a national collaboration between

the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), the Bureau of Meteorology,

the University of NSW, Australian National University, Monash University, the University of Melbourne

and the University of Tasmania. The Hub has world-leading capability in multi-disciplinary Earth system

science and modelling and provides information to underpin efficient and effective adaptation

responses.

The Bureau of Meteorology carries out research on climate change, climate variability and seasonal

prediction. Paramount to the success of climate change initiatives and advancing our understanding of

climate change and variability is ensuring the scientific community have access to high-quality

observational data and high quality global and regional climate modelling capabilities. The Bureau

continues to fund the curation of vital data sets such as the Australian Combined Observational

Reference Network for Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) and the National Tidal Centre sea level

data, to better characterise changes in climate over the past century. The Bureau and CSIRO in

collaboration with ANSTO also operate the Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station, and the Cape Grim

Science Program that delivers these baseline data to global bodies such as Global Atmospheric Watch.

The Bureau is producing the first high-resolution atmospheric regional reanalysis for Australia (BARRA),

using Australia’s national weather and climate model (ACCESS). The project has significant co-funding

from Tasmanian, New South Wales and other emergency service agencies and research institutes for

their regions of interest. BARRA will produce detailed information on past weather, derived from

historical regional observations, providing researchers with a consistent method of representing the

atmosphere over multiple decades.

CSIRO has been investing in atmospheric, ocean and climate science for over three decades, and have

co-led (with the BoM) all the national and regional climate change research programs over that period

(such as the Australian Climate Change Science Programme, Indian Ocean Climate Initiative, South East

Australia Climate Initiative, Pacific Climate Change Science Program). CSIRO is currently the lead agency

hosting the National Environmental Science Program’s Earth System and Climate Change Hub.

CSIRO’s Climate Science Centre was established in 2016 to provide a core capability in climate and Earth

system modelling and projections, and observations of the atmosphere, ocean and climate system, to

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better understand and assess climate variability and change in the past, present and future. The Centre’s

priority is delivery of world-class climate science to support the climate mitigation and adaptation

needed for an effective national response to the challenges of a variable and changing climate. The

Centre leads the development of the physical global climate and Earth System configurations of ACCESS,

and submission to CMIP. It also plays a leadership role in key national and global observing programs.

The Centre has a staff of around 150 researchers and an annual budget of approximately $25 million.

The Climate Science Centre includes a new multi-year initiative ($37 million from 2016 to 2025) to

develop reliable decadal climate forecasts to enable decision makers in agriculture, energy, water,

health, financial, insurance and other sectors to manage the risks and impacts arising from decadal

variations in climate. Anticipating the climate of the coming decades is a difficult scientific challenge, in

part because both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change influence climate on

these timescales. The Centre is developing and testing a prototype decadal forecasting system, a first for

Australia. To develop a deeper understanding of the role of the Southern Ocean in the global climate

system CSIRO has collaborated with the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and

Technology (QNLM) in China, the University of New South Wales and the University of Tasmania, to

create the $20 million Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR). Based in Hobart, the

Centre conducts fundamental research on the ocean’s role in a changing climate leading to information,

products and services to assist Australia better manage the impacts of climate variability and climate

change.

In 2015, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology developed and released a comprehensive set of climate

projections developed for Australia. The projections and underpinning data are accessible through the

Climate Change in Australia website. The climate change projections use approximately 40 global

climate models driven by four greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenarios. The scenarios are

presented for eight regions of Australia which each show different affects and impacts of climate change

now and into the future. 21 land and ocean climate variables are analysed in the projections in four 20-

year time periods centred on 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. Climate Change in Australia provides 14

interactive tools for exploring the data at different levels of complexity, to help improve accessibility,

useability and applicability of the projections for government and business.

The extensive work of the Australian Antarctic Science Program institutions is another critical

component of the climate science research effort. This program is delivered through the Australian

Antarctic Division of the Department of the Environment and Energy in collaboration with over 100

Australian and international researchers, and places a major research focus on Antarctica and Southern

Ocean climate, fisheries and ecosystems. The Australian Government has committed over $2 billion to

enhance Australia’s Antarctic logistics and science capabilities, including the provision of a new state-of-

the-art research and resupply icebreaker, RSV Nuyina, due to commence operation in 2020/21, a new

research station on Macquarie Island, establish a traverse capability to access the interior of the

Australian Antarctic Territory to drill an ice core in excess of a million years old and to develop year

round aviation access to Davis research station. The Government has also announced it will invest more

than $450 million over the next ten years to upgrade Antarctic research stations and supporting

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infrastructure. These investments are additional to the Australian Antarctic Division’s ongoing

investment in Antarctic climate science, valued at around $29 million per year.

Capability has also been enhanced by new investments through the Australian Research Council (ARC),

including:

the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ($30.05 million from 2018-19 to 2024-25) to

support research projects that will transform our understanding of past and present climate

extremes and enhance our ability to predict them.

the Special Research Initiative in Excellence in Antarctic Science ($56 million from 2019-20 to

2025-26) administered by the ARC, which will provide Antarctic researchers in Australian

universities the opportunity to seek funding to support their work which may include climate

science.

In addition, the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership grant program of $5 million per year for 10

years commenced on 1 July 2019 to support collaborative Antarctic science, research and innovation.

This program will build on the work of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research

Centre (ACE CRC) which has been funded under the Cooperative Research Centres Program since 1991.

The ACE CRC, which closed in June 2019, has been Australia’s primary vehicle for understanding the role

of the Antarctic region in the global climate system and implications for marine ecosystems.

The Government has provided $6.1 million over 3 years from 2018-19 for work with the Australian

Energy Market Operator (AEMO), the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and the Department of the

Environment and Energy to provide climate data, information and tools to assist in making the National

Electricity Market resilient to the impacts of weather and climate extremes. The project will use the

ACCESS model suite to generate downscaled future climate projections for a range of climate scenarios

out to 2060.

Australia’s states and territories are making important contributions to domestic and international

climate knowledge. For example, the states and territories are applying the outputs of global climate

models to produce detailed climate information at local scale. These local- and regional-scale climate

projections allow state and local governments, businesses and communities to understand and prepare

for climate change at the community level, including effects on water resources, agriculture, energy and

coasts. Anticipating these effects helps decision makers maximise opportunities and manage risks from

climate change.

The Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX) was established

in August 2017 with an investment of $30 million over seven years from the ARC. The University of New

South Wales, Monash University, the Australian National University, the University of Melbourne, and

the University of Tasmania, CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales Government’s

Research Attraction and Acceleration Program and the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage form

the core partnership for the Centre. CLEX also works in close partnership with the National

Computational Infrastructure Facility (NCI) and the NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub.

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CLEX’s research focuses on the physical processes underlying extreme rainfall, droughts, heatwaves and

cold air outbreaks; understanding the physics, dynamics and biology of climate extremes and translating

this information into climate models, including ACCESS. In addition, CLEX has established two industry

partnerships: Risk Frontiers, an industry funded research centre focussed on risk; and the Managing

Climate Variability Program, which helps link weather and climate information with the agricultural

sector. The Centre aims to help reduce Australia’s economic, social and environmental vulnerability to

climate extremes.

The $1.0 million Climate Data Enhanced Virtual Laboratory (DEVL) is a collaborative project building

more effective climate science data and analysis tools. The Bureau is working with the Australian

Research Data Commons (ARDC), the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), the ARC Centre of

Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX), CSIRO, and the NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub

(ESCC) on the project which will support Australia’s role in the World Climate Research Programme

(WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the complementary Coordinated

Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX).

Australia’s ability to understand climates of the deep past is greatly enhanced through our participation

in the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP), through a $1.5 million per year membership

contribution as part of the Australia-New Zealand IODP Consortium funded by the Australian Research

Council (ARC). The IODP provides scientific drilling infrastructure to obtain seafloor samples including

cores recording past climate. IODP has invested $272 million for drilling around Australia, New Zealand

and Antarctica during 2017-2019, and has provided critical paleoclimate records including in the eastern

Indian Ocean, the Antarctic Ocean, and the Great Barrier Reef.

The Government also is supporting the Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program (RRAP). RRAP is a

collaboration of Australia’s leading marine science and other experts to create a suite of innovative

measures to help preserve and restore the Great Barrier Reef. RRAP’s concept feasibility phase includes

reviewing existing reef research and technology and consulting with industry and the community. The

RRAP is being progressed by a partnership including: the Australian Institute of Marine Science, CSIRO,

Great Barrier Reef Foundation, James Cook University, The University of Queensland, Queensland

University of Technology, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and researchers from other

organisations. RRAP is the largest, most comprehensive program of its type in the world and the

resulting technology could be used worldwide to help improve the resilience of coral reefs to climate

change impacts.

In 2016, the Australian Government commissioned the development of a National Research

Infrastructure Roadmap—outlining the national research infrastructure required over the coming

decade to support Australia’s world class research system—by an Expert Working Group chaired by

Australia’s Chief Scientist. The Roadmap identified “Earth and environment systems” as a national

research infrastructure focus area. The Government has responded to the Roadmap, releasing a

National Research Infrastructure Investment Plan which sets out a long-term vision for research

infrastructure. Specific investments in earth systems and climate science include:

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$309.4 million to 2028-29 to support infrastructure with a focus on earth and environmental

systems, including:

o full utilisation of the Marine National Facility’s RV Investigator ($31.2 million over 5

years) delivering 300 days per year of merit-based access for on-water research.

o maintenance of data streams through equipment upgrades and use of the latest

technologies for IMOS ($22 million over 5 years) and TERN ($5.1 million over 5 years).

o improvement of IT platforms maintained by AuScope ($1.5 million over 5 years) to

improve earth imaging.

$70 million for upgrades to the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) (announced

December 2017), which will enable improvements in climate model development.

Scoping study funding to enhance the Australian Community Climate and Earth System

Simulator (ACCESS) weather and climate model.

Scoping study funding to explore building upon existing infrastructure in environmental science

to provide a national environmental prediction system including ecosystem modelling capability.

The initiatives outlined above form the core funding of Australia’s climate research effort, but gaps in

our effort and understanding remain. The purpose of this strategy is to focus the existing significant

national investment in climate research to deliver the maximum benefit from our scientific effort for

Australia, in light of the risks and impacts posed by climate change.

There is a vast breadth of work in these climate research initiatives currently underway which are built

on a significant history of Australian and international climate science and investment over several

decades. All of these initiatives make important contributions to Australian climate research landscape.

There is an opportunity to leverage better outcomes from these investments through improved

governance and coordination.

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Appendix 2. Global trends shaping Australian climate

research Australian climate science continues to evolve in a changing global context of environmental, economic,

technological, and social trends. The CSIRO’s 2020 strategy identified global megatrends that will shape

Australia’s future and affect science and innovation. Three are of particular relevance to climate science:

(i) science and technology will continue to play a large role in driving innovation and change; (ii) the

challenges and opportunities arising from global change, including climate change; and (iii) the need for

efficient use of the planet’s increasingly constrained mineral, water, energy and food resources. The

Australian climate research landscape will continue to be shaped by these global factors over the next

decade through four primary drivers:

1. International agreements

Under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and further progressed at the negotiations in Katowice Poland

in 2018, countries agreed to strengthen the global response to climate change by holding the increase in

average global temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit

the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognising that this would significantly

reduce the risks of impacts of climate change. The global transformations this goal implies present

challenges and opportunities for all sectors of the Australian economy and society, our regional

neighbours, and our trading partners. Australia has other international environmental commitments,

such as the Stockholm Convention, Montreal Protocol, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

the World Climate Research Programme and global observing programs that require ongoing research,

observations and reporting.

2. Managing carbon

Mitigating global climate change is largely about managing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement will require all parties to the agreement, including Australia,

to assess, manage and report on their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Verifying the efficacy of carbon

management policies and tracking the response in global GHG levels will demand ongoing observations,

assessments and the ability to provide future scenarios.

3. Sustainability and security

The sustainable use of water, energy and food resources requires a scientific evidence-base to guide

management and policy decisions and needs to include the effects and feedbacks of climate change and

variability. Climate change is recognised as a ‘threat multiplier’ to Australia’s national security, especially

through changes in the severity and nature of extreme weather and climate events across the Indo-

Pacific and Southeast Asian regions.

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4. Growing demand for climate information

A global surge in demand for quality climate information is being driven by the finance, insurance and

legal business sectors as they recognise and address the financial and regulatory risks associated with

climate change. The demand for information at increasingly finer temporal and spatial scales, and for

probabilities around extreme events, will push the boundaries of our knowledge and predictive ability.

To meet the growing demand for climate change services for input to mitigation and adaptation plans,

climate information needs to be relevant, credible, readily available, application-ready and able to be

integrated into other decision frameworks.

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National Climate Science Advisory Committee The purpose of the National Climate Science Advisory Committee is to advise the Australian

Government on a nationally aligned and integrated approach to climate science, which will inform the

direction and sustainability of Australia’s climate science capability and research priorities.

The National Climate Science Advisory Committee will:

1) advise the Government on the development of a strategy for climate science in Australia,

including:

a) Australia’s climate science priorities, capabilities and resources, including a stocktake of

existing capabilities and options for addressing any gaps;

b) consolidation of commitments from key climate science delivery agents for current and

future resourcing of the strategy; and

c) ongoing climate science community coordination arrangements.

2) provide an ongoing forum to coordinate and drive local and international collaboration across

key climate science agencies, investors and users of science.

3) promote Australia’s climate science research capability with both Australian and international

stakeholders.

Committee Members

Dr Katherine Woodthorpe AO FTSE FAICD (Chair), independent director with demonstrated

national leadership and experience in government and scientific research

Mr John Gunn FTSE, independent senior scientist and Fellow of the Australian Academy of

Technological Sciences and Engineering

Associate Professor Julie Arblaster, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash

University

Professor Mark Howden, Director, The Australian National University Climate Change Institute

Professor Timothy Naish FRSNZ, Director, Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University,

Wellington, New Zealand

Dr Alan Finkel AO FAA FTSE, Australia’s Chief Scientist

Dr Heather Smith PSM, Secretary, Department of Industry, Innovation and Science

Mr Finn Pratt AO PSM, Secretary, Department of the Environment and Energy

Dr Andrew Johnson, Director, Bureau of Meteorology

Dr Helen Cleugh, Director Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

Climate Science Centre

Dr David Karoly FAA, Director, Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, National Environmental

Science Program

Dr Gwen Fenton, Chief Scientist, Australian Antarctic Division