Strategic Response to Threat of Fusarium Head Blight (FHB)

in Western US Barley Production

Hilton Garden Inn, Idaho Falls, ID

January 9, 2014

Climate Trends in the Pacific Northwest

John Stevenson

jstevenson@coas.oregonstate.edu

Overview - Pacific Northwest

Climate - Past Trends

- Future Projections

- Ag. Reponses to

Changing: - CO2

- Temperature

- Moisture Photo: Dag Endresen

Weather or Climate?

Climate is what you expect…..

Weather is what you get

Current Climate

Current Climate

Past Climate Trends

Source: http://www.climate.washington.edu/trendanalysis/

PNW Average Temperature Change 1895-2010

Modeled v. Observed

Global Temp. Trend 19th

Century

What’s Driving the Change?

Past Climate Trends

Future Climate Trends

Climate Models as Tools

Temperature Project for Pacific Northwest

End

Century

6-11oF

Mid

Century

4-6oF

~ 6.5o F

~ 11.5o F

Temperature Project for East Idaho

Future Climate and

Agriculture Projection

- CO2 Fertilization?

- Pests?

- Moisture Requirements

What Are Impacts on Agricultural Production?

Stockle et al. 2010

Temperatures?

Moisture?

CO2 Fertilization?

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

2020 2040 2080

Pullman (6.2 Mg/ha)

No CO2

CO2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

2020 2040 2080

St. John (5.1 Mg/ha)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

2020 2040 2080

Lind (4.3 Mg/ha)

Project Results: Winter Wheat

Climate Impacts Group 2009

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Baseline 2020 2040 2080

Pullman (CCSM3)

Precipitation

ETo

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Baseline 2020 2040 2080

Pullman (PCM1)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Baseline 2020 2040 2080

Sunnyside (CCSM3)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Baseline 2020 2040 2080

Sunnyside (PCM1)

Annual Precipitation and Potential

Evapotranspiration ETo (mm)

Climate Impacts Group 2009

Moisture Limited

Seasonal (April 1- Sept 30) Precipitation and

Potential Evapotranspiration ETo (mm)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Baseline 2020 2040 2080

Pullman (CCSM3)

Precipitation

ETo

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Baseline 2020 2040 2080

Pullman (PCM1)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Baseline 2020 2040 2080

Sunnyside (CCSM3)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Baseline 2020 2040 2080

Sunnyside (PCM1)

Climate Impacts Group 2009

Severely Moisture

Limited

Climate Influence on Pests

J. Brunner

Decreasing summer flow in snowmelt watersheds

Projected Climate Change Impacts

on Crop Yield: Curtailment

Columbia River Supply & Demand Forecast

Adam, et.al. In

preparation..

Conclusions

• Warming has occurred over 20th century

and will continue through 21st century.

• There will be winner’s and losers.

• Benefits of longer growing season and

increasing CO2 but ….

• Balanced against water and pests/disease

considerations.

How Good are Climate Models?

GCM Simulation of Past Climate in the PNW

Temp

Precip