CLIMATE2030: A Japanese Project for Decadal Climate Prediction

Masahide KimotoCenter for Climate System Research

University of Tokyoand

Team SPAMSPAM SPAMSPAMSPAMSPAMSPAMSPAM

IPCC AR4 SPM

Climate Projection by Computer Models

The 2nd phase of Japanese global warming projecton the Earth Simulator (Kakushin Program; 2007-2012)

• Team 1: Long-term (FRCGC/NIES/CCSR) Tokioka– MIROC-ESM (T42L80+1.0x1.4L44+carbon cycle+aerosols+chemistry)– NICAM global CSRM, EMIC for uncertainty– physics ensemble– detailed dyn veg– crop yields, high tides

• Team 2: Near-term (CCSR/NIES/FRCGC) Kimoto– MIROC AOGCM (T213AGCM+1/4x1/6OGCM+aerosols; medres(T85) as

well)– Initialization w/ obs. + 10-member ensemble– Flood/drought risk assessment– Regionally hi-res OGCM

• Team 3: Hi-res time-slice (MRI/JMA) Kitoh– 20km AGCM + 1km nested regional model near Japan– Impact on hydrology, flood risk assessment, Typhoons

# Teams 1-3 all consist of Modelling/Uncertainty/Impact study components# ES will be upgraded in March 2009 (2.x times faster)

Ensemble hindcast/forecast

Assimilation/Initialization

• A near-term prediction up to 2030 with a high-resolution coupled AOGCM

– 60km Atmos + 20x30km Ocean– w/ updated cloud PDF scheme, PBL, etc– advanced aerosol/chemistry

• Estimate of uncertainty due to initial conditions– 10(?)-member ensemble– For impact applications

• water risk assessment system• impacts on marine ecosystems• etc.

• Test run w/ 20km AOGCM (in 2011)

110km mesh model

60km mesh model

5-min topography

Japanese CLIMATE 2030 Project

Near-Term Projection: Issues

Hawkins and Sutton (2008)• Models good enough?• Resolution? Ensembles?• Initialization? How?• Drift?• Decadal predictability?• Chemistry? Aerosols?• Volcanoes?

Decadal Predictability for Natural Modes?

Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)

SPAMSPAMSPAMSPAMSPAMSPAM

SPAMSystem for Prediction and Assimilation by MIROC

Coupled climate model MIROC

Data Assimilation

Prediction Products

Assimilation/Initialization

Data

Impact assessment

Hirabayashi et al. (2006)

Externally forced climate change(20th Century Reproduction Experiment w/o Data Assimilation)

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Full forcing(Natual + Anthropogenic)

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Anthropogenic forcingOnly

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Natural forcing Only(Solar + Volcano)

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No forcing

Nozawa et al. (2005)

Predictability of PDO: Impact of initializationTime series projected on to

simulated PDO

1970 1975 1980

SST EOF1

20C3M

OBS

ObservationHindcast & spread

1970 1975 1980

Uninitialized 20C experiment

Initialized hindcast (Initial: 1970)

4

2

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-44

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Mochizuki et al. (2009, submitted)

Mochizuki et al. (2009)

Decadal Predictability?Assimilation vs. Hindcasts w/ & w/o initialization

SPAMSPAMSPAMSPAMSPAMSPAM

SPAM: System for

Prediction and

Assimilation by

MIROC

Global SAT PDO

Difference between Assimilated and Not

Assimilated FCST 2006-2010

Reevaluation of historical upper-ocean heat content

Depth correction for historical XBT & MBT (Ishii and Kimoto, 2009)

V6.2: Old analysisV6.7: New AnalysisMIROC: medres 20C3M & spread

Global heat content(0-700m)

Impacts of XBTー DBC: PDO

without XBT-DBC

with XBT-DBC

ObservationPredic. (1)

Projection onto 20C3M EOF1

EOF1

XBT depth correction improved climatology & initial condition