closing eaae seminar 148: food policy needed
TRANSCRIPT
Does Europe need a Food Policy – Yes or No ?
The Hague, December 1 2015148th EAAE Seminar
Krijn J. Poppe
Content
Four societal challenges●Healthy diet for a healthy life●Food and nutrition security●Climate change●Sustainability and resilience
Trends in the food system●The role of ICT●The dominance of the food chain
Do we need a food policy? - yes I think we do●Where to start – Getting prices right and in R&D?●What does it mean for agricultural policy?
Trends in food: interest in healthy diet?Health
●Awareness of healthy diets and lifestyles ●Struggle against obesitas
Sustainable food production●Growing demand for sustainable, seasonal products
from the region ●Reduction in consumption, food waste as an issue
New cultures in food●Relax and slow, contra-trend of technology
Quality time: products should ripen, slow food
●Experience – food as a part of story telling●More fresh, less meat
Consumer behaviour and –attitudes on sustainability
Consumers choose altruistic values like equality, peace and fair above nature values (pollution, in balance with nature) and egoistic values (power, richness, authority)
15% of the persons have public values as animal welfare, environment and justice as a first choice.
Health, price and taste are most important aspects of food
Bron: Backus et al. (2011). Voedselbalans 2011. LEI-WUR.
Food consumption compared to official advise, NL 2007 – 2010 (source: PBL)
5
Food and nutrition security
Current challenge - 50% has a food related problem:●Undernourished: 0.8 billion●Malnutrition: 1.0 billion●Obese and overweight 1.6 billion
2050 from 7 to 9 billion: 2.0 billion extra ‘double burden’: co-existence of undernourishment and
overweight Stable access to food more an issue than production Changing diets in relation to urbanisation and higher
incomes UN: Sustainable development goals. Reducing poverty !
Climate change
UNFCCC, the United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change: COP21
Towards hard goals on CO2 emissions and CO2 trading?
Future energy prices in the bio-economy and their influence on food production ?
Role of agriculture in adaptation and mitigation?
Sustainability and resilience Agriculture reduced pollution, per ha and even more per
kg of product >> when incentivized by policy or retail But still a long list of issues, among others:
●Pesticides●Manure, fertilizer and water quality●Greenhouse gasses●Antibiotics ●Local issues like odour and light nuisance●Animal welfare and resistance to industrialisation
The role of animals in climate change and food nutrition Geo-politics and resilience of our food system
Sustainability – how it became an issue
• Production increase for food security• Incentivized by CAP and chemical revolution
• Environmental problems (manure, pesticides etc.)• Policy measures started too late (political economy)• Price of food is too low, not a ‘true price’
• Active civil society (NGOs) • Growth retailers and food processors – brands• Vulnerable - reputation mechanism
• Consequences for governance of food chain• Thick contacts, stronger links
Trends in the food system - concentration Bigger food processors
●Nearly 50 farmer cooperatives have members in more than 1 EU member state
Concentrated retail
Chain organisation changes (©Gereffi et al., 2005)
inpu
ts
E
nd p
rodu
ct
PRICE
Shops Complete IntegrationLead
companyLead
company
Turnkey supplier
Relationalsupplier
Market Modular Relational Captive Hierarchy
Low Degree of explicit coordination and power asymmetry High
Leadcompany
Farmers
Concentration in farming Source: FADN
0 20 40 60 80 100 1200
20
40
60
80
100
120
FranceGermanyUKSpainItalyPolandSweden
percentage farms
perc
enta
ge s
tand
ardo
utpu
t
0 5 10 15 20 250102030405060708090
FrancePolandRomania
percentage farms
perc
enta
ge s
tand
ardo
utpu
t
tijd
Mate van verspreidingvan technologische revolutie
Installatie periode
Volgendegolf
Uitrol periodeDraai-punt
INDRINGER
EXTASE
SYNERGIE
RIJPHEID
Door-braak
WerkeloosheidStilstand oude bedrijfstakken
Kapitaal zoekt nieuwe techniek
Financiele bubbleOnevenwichtighedenPolarisatie arm en rijk
Gouden eeuwCoherente groei
Toenemende externalities
Techniek bereikt grenzenMarktverzadiging
Teleurstelling en gemakzucht
Institutionele innovatie
Naar Perez, 2002
Crash20081929189318471797
time
Degree of diffusion of thetechnological revoluton
Installation period
Nextwave
Deploymentperiod
Turningpoint
IRRUPTION
FRENZY
SYNERGY
MATURITY
Big Bang
UnemploymentDecline of old industries
Capital searches new techniques
Financial bubbleDecoupling in the systemPolarisation poor and rich
Golden ageCoherent growth
Increasing externalities
Last products & industriesMarket saturationDisappointment vs
complacency
Crash
2008
1929
1893
1847
1797
Institutional
innovation
Based on Perez, 2002
The opportunity for green growth
1971 chip ICT1908 car, oil, mass production1875 steel1829 steam, railways1771 water, textiles
ICT brings info for farmer and consumer
Royal Gala apple
Origin: GironaPesticides: No
Organic farming: Yes Carbon footprint:1,2 kg CO2e
Which innovations and new business models are possible ?
Precision Farming/Advice Segment Online + infoService ++
• Prescriptive farming• Predictive maintenance• Eco-systems of apps• Regionally pooled big data
analysis for science and advise (and risk mgt.)
• Personalized advise by apps
• Online shops
• Integrated supply chains• Feedback consumer-producer
• Measure, pay sustainability
• Better T&T
• Paperless chain• Store
replenishment• Category
management
Sustainability HealthFood SafetyFood Security
LoyaltySMEs Cost priceGRIN Cope with retail
Transport
Input industriesFarmer Food processor Retail / consumerSoftware
Provider
Logistic solution providers
Transport+
Collaboration and Data Exchange is needed!
Big Data for Smart Food and Health Services
Life style
Health
Food
16
Reducing health costs with big data
Productivity: Science has the potential to develop technologies that can boost
productivity whilst addressing resource scarcities and environmental problems
Massive investments needed in R&D, technology adoption, rural infrastructure, access to markets
GRIN technologies (Genetics, Robotics, Informatics, Nano)Sufficiency: Science has the potential to develop technological solutions that are
productive, reduce resource use, preserve biodiversity However, demand increases need to be mitigated, through behavorial
change, structural changes food systems Appropriate governance structures to internalise externalities
● E.g.: less meat, urban farming etc.
SCAR 3rd Foresight: 2 narratives for future
HighTech: strong influence new technology owned by multinationals. Driverless tractors, contract farming and a rural exodus. US of Europe. Rich society with inequality. Sustainability issues solved. Bio-boom scenario.
Self-organisation: Europe of regions where new ICT technologies with disruptive business models lead to self-organisation, bottom-up democracy, short-supply chains, multi-functional agriculture. European institutions are weak, regions and cities rule. Inequalities between regions, depending on endowments.
Collapse: Big climate change effects, mass-migration and political turbulence leads to a collapse of institutions and European integration. Regional and local communities look for self-sufficiency. Bio-scarcity and labour intensive agriculture. Technology development becomes dependent on science in China, India, Brazil.
SCAR AKIS Foresight: 3 narratives
Scenarios: from agricultural to food policy
Strong government
Room for markets and networks
Con-serve Develop
(c) Poppe et al, 2009
Towards a food policy – where to start?
Towards a food policy – where to start?
• Getting Prices Right
• Nudging and advise to consumers?
• Partner with commercial sector in product development? >> “choice editing”
• Regulation – which ones?
Towards a food policy – in research:
• Multi- and transdisciplinary
• Create a Research Infrastructure
Towards a food policy – what does it mean for CAP post-2020?
• Food policy influences farming, not vice versa?
• Attention for health aspects of farm management: antibiotics, zoonoses
• Better policies for sustainability – incentivize sustainability programs of food industry for larger farms?
• Do not frame a trade off between productivity and sustainability
• Research moves the frontier• Adopt the sufficiency scenario: in co-
creation consumer demand is not given
Conclusions Four societal challenges
●Healthy diet for a healthy life●Food and nutrition security●Climate change●Sustainability and resilience
Trends in the food system●The role of ICT●The dominance of the food chain
Yes, we need a food policy●Start with getting prices right and in R&D●Agricultural policy can support, not replace food
policy
