clubcorp deck
DESCRIPTION
A look at ClubCorp as a potential investment idea.TRANSCRIPT
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NYSE: MYCCJason A. Moser
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ClubCorp is the market leader in country club management.
ClubCorp’s scale helps bring down the costs of being a member at a facility.
ClubCorp’s membership model provides an attractive recurring revenue stream and as consolidation in the space continues it may present an opportunity for investors.
The idea
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What does ClubCorp do?
ClubCorp is the largest owner-operator of private clubs in the US.
It owns and operates golf and country, business, sports, and alumni clubs.
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At a glance
160 MYCC owns or operates a portfolio of ~160 golf and country clubs, business clubs, sports clubs, and alumni
clubs in 25 states, DC, and 2 foreign countries.
77% Golf and country clubs are its primary money maker accounting for 77% of sales and virtually all of EBITDA.
5.7% Revenue per average membership has steadily increased over the past four years growing 5.7% on a
compounded annual basis.
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Revenue per average membership
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How many are playing?
24.1M/462M
In 2013 24.1 million golfers played 462 million rounds.
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How many are playing?
29.8M/518M
In record-setting 2000, 29.8 million golfers played 518 million rounds.
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Where are their clubs?
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ClubCorp will buy Sequoia Golf for $265 million. This will add 50 more clubs to the ClubCorp
portfolio and 7,000 acres of real estate This will give it 204 clubs in total, 25,000 acres,
173,000 memberships and 430,000 members. This follows the bigger trend of consolidation in
the industry. Golf facilities under management company umbrellas have gone from 11% in 2008 to 15% in 2013.
The Sequoia opportunity
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MembershipsMembersRetention rateRevenue per average membershipOperating marginCoverage ratio
What metrics matter?
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With a $1.17 billion market cap today the stock trades at 1.3X full year 2014 estimated sales.
Sales are expected to hit $1 billion by 2017. Depreciation/amortization and interest expense have a big
impact on the income statement. Remember D&A is a non-cash item. The company is consistently cash flow positive.
Membership revenue is high margin; F&B is low margin. MYCC shares trade today at 11.2 times operating cash flow
and 36.3 times free cash flow. Typical CFFO as a % of sales is ~12%; CFFO in 2017 could then
be $120M. Just one way to look at it.
Understanding future worth
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Focus on the cash flow
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Focus on the cash flow
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ManagementEric Affeldt
CEO/President since 12/2006Former principal of KLS Capital
which holds 51% of MYCC shares.
Curtis McClellanCFO since 11/2008
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ManagementMark Burnett
COO since 10/2013Previously EVP of Golf & Country
Clubs from 2006.
Daniel TilleyCIO (information) since 5/2007 Strong golf business experience.
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Golf is facing headwinds today. According to the National Golf Foundation 14 new courses (in 18-hole equivalents) were built in
2014 in the US and another 157.5 closed their doors, for a net loss of 143.5 courses. In 2013 3.7 million took up the game, but
4.1 million left the game for a net loss of 400,000 players.
The biggest challenge
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Players leave the game for any number of reasons. Time, money, family, degree of difficulty. Golf will likely suffer high attrition
indefinitely, but this doesn’t mean the game is going away. The biggest pressures are being felt on the public/daily fee side.
The biggest challenge
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Of the 157.5 courses that closed last year, 151.5 were public-access. We have a surplus of golf courses in the US, but it’s primarily on the public side. MYCC
is capitalizing on the private side of the market which is far more stable. Example: MYCC experienced a decline of 2.4% in memberships from 2007 to
2012, however total revenue per membership increased by 2.5%.
The public side
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Players leave the game for any number of reasons. Time, money,
Memberships can be sticky
Source: ClubCorp Holdings Form S-1
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Limitations: MYCC golf and country club members have on average an annual household income of $180,000 to $200,000 and a primary home value of $500,000 to $600,000. Does this limit their opportunity? OR does it offer a more stable target market?
Balance: With a coverage ratio around 2, balance sheet strength becomes paramount. Additional offerings could dilute shareholders.
Consolidation: While ClubCorp is good at consolidation, it’s still a risk. Keep an eye on the Sequoia deal.
KSL: KSL Capital owns 50.9% of the shares outstanding. Investors are pretty much in bed with them here. Good news is this is what these guys do: invest in and grow the travel & leisure markets.
Risks
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I’ve never been one to look for investing opportunities in golf; just a tough space. ClubCorp however has caught my interest.
It’s caught my interest because it’s the market leader exploiting the biggest advantage in its the market: Scale.
Golf’s headwinds are not to be dismissed, but also remember where they primarily lie: equipment and public/daily fee.
Memberships tend to be stickier over time producing a nice recurring revenue stream.
I worked at a ClubCorp club for two years as a golf professional. They are all about cost, tend to run a tight ship.
ClubCorp looks like an ideal way to get investing exposure to golf. Their scale advantage should only grow with time.
Bottom line for investors
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Remember, investing is all about the future. There are
never any guarantees and you're taking a measure of a leap of faith
every single time.