cmaq/benmap-based health-benefits analysis in support...

Georgia Environmental Protection Division

CMAQ/BenMAP-basedHealth-Benefits Analysis in Support of the Georgia SIPs

for O3 and PM2.5

Amit Marmur

5th Annual CMAS Conference, October 16-18, 2006


Overview

• Overview of BenMAP

• Summary of O3 and PM2.5 sensitivity analysis

• Quantifying the health benefits from O3 and PM2.5control strategies

• Preliminary findings and future research


Benefits Analysis with BenMAP:A US-EPA Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program

Modeled (or measured) reductions in

pollutant levels

Reduced morbidity, mortality, health costs


• Population based GIS

• Concentration-response functions, incident rates and valuation estimates to quantify changes in health endpoints and associated $-benefits

• Can produce estimates at the population grid scale, county, state, or national level

• Measured or modeled AQ data• examine benefits of various control strategies using AQ modeling

• examine benefits of reducing measured ambient concentrations to specific levels

BenMAP Flow Diagram


Reasons to Assess Benefits

• Evaluate and prioritize various attainment strategy options

• Consider air quality management across multiple pollutants and regions

• Communicate impacts to decision-makers, stakeholders and public


Health Effects Quantified in BenMAP

+School absence rates

+Worker productivity

+Work loss days

++Asthma attacks

++Acute respiratory symptoms

++Asthma ER visits

++Hospital admissions

+Nonfatal heart attacks

+Chronic Bronchitis

++Mortality

OzonePMHealth endpoint


Current Mean Values for Health Effects (2000 $)

* - WTP: Willingness to pay

** - COI: Cost of illness

*

**


Summary of O3 and PM2.5sensitivity analysis


Emission Sensitivities• Sensitivity of ozone (ppb) and PM2.5 (µg/m3)

• Summer Episode: May 25 - June 25, 2002 (2009)• Winter Episode: Nov 19 - Dec 19, 2002 (2009)

• Regional 10% Emission Reductions– Mobile (on-road/non-road), area, non-EGU– NOx, VOCs, SO2, NH3, and primary carbon (PC)– Atlanta (full & sub), Macon (full & sub), Chattanooga (full

& sub), Floyd County

• Point Emission Reductions– Additional SCRs (NOx) and Scrubbers (SO2) at seven

largest Power Plants in Georgia


Sensitivity of PM2.5 in Atlanta (FS#8/E.Rivers)

0.420.0300.040.054 Scrubbers at Hammond

85.70.250.360.1910% Atlanta PC1.90.010.010.0210% Atlanta SO2

-0.090.00-0.020.0310% Atlanta NOx

0.710.0370.060.052 Scrubbers at Yates0.440.0440.060.091 Scrubbers at Wansley

0.560.1500.040.384 Scrubbers at Scherer1.390.0700.070.112 Scrubbers at McDonough0.630.0980.030.154 Scrubbers at Branch0.500.0910.070.192 Scrubbers at Bowen0.110.010.010.0010% Atlanta VOCs22.50.090.150.0610% Atlanta NH3

Annual (ng/m3/TPD)

Annual (µµµµg/m3)

Winter (µµµµg/m3)

Summer (µµµµg/m3)

Sensitivity


0.11

0.03

0.07

0.41

0.42

0.07

0.08

0.95

1.36

Avg response (ppb)

9.92 SCRs at Plant Yates

2.23 SCRs at Plant Hammond

4.62 SCRs at Plant Branch

13.74 SCRs at Plant Scherer

60.42 SCRs at Plant McDonough

2.210% Atlanta VOC (5 counties)

1.510% Atlanta VOC (20 counties)

41.110% Atlanta NOx (5 counties)

35.710% Atlanta NOx (20 counties)

ppt/TPD reduction

Sensitivity

Sensitivity of O3 in Atlanta (Conf. Ave.)


Health benefits assessments for the O3 and PM2.5SIPs


Preliminary estimate of $ benefits (all GA) from NOx and VOC controls in Atlanta (20 counties)

-120,000

-100,000

-80,000

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

NOx(annual)

NOx(summer)

VOC(annual)

VOC(summer)

$-b

enef

its/T

PD

��

��

� � �

��

� ��

��

��

��


Metrics used in O3 health studies

1.1 (33.3)1-hr maxMinor Restricted Activity Days

1.3 (36.6)8-hr mean; 1-hr maxSchool absences

96.5 (n/a)24-hr mean; 1-hr maxMortality

0.0 (0.1)24-hr mean; 8-hr max; 5-hr mean; 1-hr max

Emergency Room Visits, Respiratory

1.0 (30.0)24-hr mean; 1-hr maxHospital Admissions, Respiratory

% of $-benefits*(% w/o mortality)

O3 metric usedHealth endpoint

* - Hubbell et al., EHP 113, 73-82, 2005 (based on ambient data)


Reductions in exposure (ppb*person/TPD) to various O3 metrics

Summer only Annual

-10,000

-7,500

-5,000

-2,500

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

1-hr max 8-hr max 24-hr mean 1-hr max 8-hr max 24-hr mean

Red

uct

ion

in e

xpos

ure

(ppb

*per

son

/TP

D)

10% ground-level NOx 10% ground level VOCSCRs at McDonough SCRs at Scherer


Diurnal patterns in O3 concentrations:Summer

15.0

25.0

35.0

45.0

55.0

65.0

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Hour

O3,

pp

b

Base 10% NOx reduction McDonough SCR-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hour

Red

cutio

n in

O3

(pp

b)

10% ground-level NOx reduction SCR at Plant McDonough


Issues to consider (1): Threshold effects

* - Bell et al., The Exposure-Response curve for ozone and risk of mortality and the adequacy of current ozone regulations, EHP 114, 532-536, 2006.

*Percentage increase in daily non-accidental mortality per 10-ppb increase in mean 24-hr O3*

25 ppb


Issues to consider (2): Nighttime exposure

0.97

0.98

0.99

1.00

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

1.05

1.06

24-h

r av

e

1-hr

max

8-hr

max

rush

-hou

r

day-

time

nigh

t-tim

e

24-h

r av

e

1-hr

max

8-hr

max

rush

-hou

r

day-

time

nigh

t-tim

e

RESP CVD

Ris

k R

atio

(per

IQR

)Ozone (O3) Metric Comparison

�2=12.9

�2=31.0

�2=37.7

�2=25.1

�2=37.0

�2=0.3

�2=6.9

�2=6.4

�2=3.5

�2=5.6�

2=0.6

�2=3.9

* - Darrow et al., International conference on environmental epidemiology and exposure (ISEE/ISEA), Paris, France, 2006.

*


Issues to consider (3): Model performanceSummer Winter

24-hr O3 mean: R=0.68

8-hr max O3: R=0.88

1-hr max O3: R=0.87

24-hr O3 mean: R=0.66

8-hr max O3: R=0.51

1-hr max O3: R=0.35

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

5/23/0

25/2

5/02

5/27/0

25/2

9/02

5/31/0

26/2

/026/4

/026/6

/026/8

/026/1

0/02

6/12/0

26/1

4/02

6/16/0

26/1

8/02

6/20/0

26/2

2/02

O3

(ppb

)

24hr (mod.) 24hr (obs.) 8hr max (mod.)8hr max (obs.) 1hr max (mod.) 1hr max (obs.)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

11/17/0

211

/19/02

11/21/0

211

/23/02

11/25/0

211

/27/02

11/29/0

212

/1/02

12/3/02

12/5/

0212/7

/0212

/9/02

12/11/0

212

/13/02

12/15/0

212

/17/02

O3

(ppb

)

24hr_CMAQ 24hr_JST 8hrmax_CMAQ8hrmax_JST 1hrmax_CMAQ 1hrmax_JST


$ benefits from various O3 control scenarios

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

All Georgia

$-be

nefit

s/TP

D

Ground NOx (annual) Ground NOx (25ppb threshold)Ground NOx (summer) Ground NOx (summer, 1-hr metric)Ground VOC (annual) Ground VOC (summer)McDonough (annual) McDonough (25ppb threshold)McDonough (summer) Scherer (annual)Scherer (summer)


Reductions in exposure to PM2.5

1.0E+00

1.0E+01

1.0E+02

1.0E+03

1.0E+04

1.0E+05

1.0E+06

1.0E+07

Scrubb

ers a

t Bran

ch

Scrubb

ers a

t Bow

en

Scrubb

ers a

t Ham

mond

Scrubb

ers a

t McD

onou

gh

Scrubb

ers a

t Sch

erer

Scrubb

ers a

t Wan

sley

Scrubb

ers a

t Yate

s

10%

grou

nd-le

vel P

C

10%

grou

nd-le

vel N

H3

10%

grou

nd-le

vel N

Ox

10%

grou

nd-le

vel S

O2

10% gr

ound

-leve

l VOC

(ug/m3)*person/TPD (ug/m3)*person


PM2.5 exposure and benefits

0.71

0.44

0.42

0.56

1.39

0.63

0.50

0.11

22.5

-0.09

1.9

85.7

Sensitivity1

(ng/m3/TPD)

1.284,7404 Scrubbers at Hammond

78.0324,00010% Atlanta PC

2.9611,70010% Atlanta SO2

0.752,82010% Atlanta NOx

1.535,5702 Scrubbers at Yates1.264,6401 Scrubbers at Wansley

1.625,9504 Scrubbers at Scherer2.077,9702 Scrubbers at McDonough1.224,4204 Scrubbers at Branch1.104,1602 Scrubbers at Bowen0.145,4010% Atlanta VOC23.295,60010% Atlanta NH3

million-$-benefit/TPD2

∆∆∆∆exposure2

(µµµµg/m3)*person/TPDSensitivity

1- calculated for the 3x3 matrix surrounding FS#8/E.Rivers sites

2- state totals


Another NOx related issue…Effect on PM2.5

Change in PM2.5 due to a 10% NOx reduction in Atlanta (20 county)

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� � ��

��

� ��


Spatial patterns in reductions of PM2.5

10% NOx

10% PCScherer

10% NH3


Summary, preliminary findings and future research

• A coupled CMAQ/BenMAP model was used to estimate the health benefits of various O3 and PM2.5 control strategies.

• For PM2.5 related benefits, consistency was observed and benefits were reported for all cases examined.

• For O3, the choice of CR function (different O3 metrics) and season/threshold had a substantial impact on the benefits quantification process. Issues:– Ozone season or year-round effects/benefits? Threshold?– Reduced nighttime exposure patterns not accounted for in BenMAP

• Preliminary evidence suggests no (significant) association between nighttime O3 and health outcomes

• Are 24-hr RRs a reflection of peak O3 levels?– Model performance

• Even under the most beneficial O3 control scenario ($340,000/ton), O3 related benefits were still substantially lower (per-ton) than PM2.5 benefits ($140,000-$78,000,000/ton).


Amit Marmur, Ph.D.Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources

4244 International Parkway, Suite 120Atlanta, GA 30354

[email protected] 404-363-7072

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