cmp close contact report

Covid-19 Contact Management Programme (CMP)

1

Authors: Dr Ciara Carroll, Ms.Davinia O’Donnell, Dr. Jennifer Martin

Owner: Dr Sarah Doyle – Clinical Lead CMP, Medical Officer for Health (MCRN 19055)

Date Created: 23/11/20

Version: v1.1

CMP Close Contact Report

November 16th to 22nd


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Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................3

Key Findings ............................................................................................................4

Part 1: Close contact circumstances and demographics – August 31st to November 15th ............... 4

Positivity rate by circumstances of contact ............................................................................................... 4

Positivity rate by contact demographics .................................................................................................... 4

Part 2: Close contacts created on the Covidcare Tracker week ending 22nd November .................. 4

Volume of Contacts ...................................................................................................................................... 4

Volume of Cases .......................................................................................................................................... 4

Attendance at Testing .................................................................................................................................. 4

Positivity Rates for contacts created week ending 11th October 2020 ........................................................... 4

Part 1: Close Contact Outcomes – 31st August to 15th November .............................5

Positivity Rate by Circumstances of Contact ........................................................................................... 5

Positivity Rate by Contact Age Group ....................................................................................................... 7

Positivity Rate by Gender ............................................................................................................................ 8

Part 2: Close and Complex Contacts 15th to 22nd November 2020 .......................... 14

Volume of Contacts .................................................................................................................................... 14

Complex Contacts ...................................................................................................................................... 14

Volume of Cases ........................................................................................................................................ 16

Attendance at Testing ................................................................................................................................ 16

Close Contact Positivity Rates* ................................................................................................................ 17

Close Contact Overview – 9th to 15th November .................................................................................... 18

Close Contacts per Case ................................................................................................................................ 18

Contacts by Region ........................................................................................................................................ 19

Close Contact: Demographic Details ............................................................................................................. 20

Close Contact Demographic Details .............................................................................................................. 20

Close Contacts: Circumstances and Symptoms ............................................................................................ 21

Complex Contacts Overview .................................................................................................................... 22


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Introduction

This report is in two parts:

Part 1 provides a breakdown of positivity rates by circumstances of contact and contact demographic details for contacts created between the 31st of August and 15th of November.

Part 2 involves a more detailed analysis of close and complex contacts created on the Covidcare tracker for the week ending November 22nd.

Day 0 testing of all close contacts commenced on 19th May. Day 7 testing commenced on 28th May

(for those whose last date of exposure was 21st May). Data are provisional. Analysis is based on the

following data sources as of 3pm, 23rd November:

CovidCareTracker

Swiftqueue

Lablink

Clarifications:

Day 0 testing is arranged as soon as a Contact is informed they have been in close contact with a

confirmed case. Day 7 testing is arranged on the true seventh day from last contact with the

confirmed case where a Day 0 test was earlier than sixth day since last contact with case.

Limitations:

While attempts were made to identify alternative COVID-19 IDs for patients where data was

incomplete, it was not possible in all instances.

Acknowledgements

Contact tracing for cases and contacts on the Covidcare Tracker is a collaborative effort between staff

in the CMP and in regional Departments of Public Health.


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Key Findings

Part 1: Close contact circumstances and demographics – August 31st to November 15th

Positivity rate by circumstances of contact

Positivity rates range are highest at 19.6% amongst household contacts, followed by transport:non-

flight related (10.8%) and social (9.0%) contacts. Transmission rates appear to be lower amongst close

contacts related to educational settings, workplaces and flights. Household contacts account for over

40% of close contacts with positive test results, with social contacts accounting for a further 15%.

Positivity rate by contact demographics

The positivity rate is highest amongst contacts aged 80 or greater (14.6%) and lowest in those aged 0

to 9 (9.8%). Positivity rate is similar between male (11.8%) and female (11.4%) contacts. The

proportion of contacts testing positive by county ranged from 7.4% in Offaly to 15.2% in Cavan.

Part 2: Close contacts created on the Covidcare Tracker week ending 22nd November

Volume of Contacts

The number of close contacts captured during the week ending November 15th was 6,490, a 12%

decrease compared to the previous week. The number of complex contacts also decreased by 12%

this week, from 1,473 to 1294.

Volume of Cases

The total number of cases managed by the Contact Management Programme for the week ending

November 22nd was 2,274, a week on week decrease of 22%.

Attendance at Testing

Of the close contacts created between 16th and 21st November, to date 85% have attended their Day

0 Test and 65% have attended their Day 7 Test.

Positivity Rates

The current positivity rates for close contacts created between the 16th and 22nd of November are

13.9% and 3.1% at day 0 and day 7 testing respectively.


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Part 1: Close Contact Outcomes – 31st August to 15th November

This report provides an overview of the outcomes for the 92,618 close contacts created on the Covid

Care Tracker between the 31st of August and the 15th of November where lab results were available

at the time of report preparation. Definitions of the different circumstances of contact are provided

in the Appendix.

Positivity Rate by Circumstances of Contact

Total Number

of Results

Number of Positive Results

Proportion of Positive Results

Household 32648 6392 19.6%

Social 18133 1635 9.0%

Primary School 8863 308 3.5%

Workplace 5924 331 5.6%

Second Level Education 4437 131 3.0%

Early years Register 3591 185 5.2%

Transport: flight 1123 65 5.8%

Sport 1054 48 4.6%

Other Educational Setting 653 40 6.1%

Transport: non-flight 595 64 10.8%

Healthcare Setting: Patient* 293 21 7.1%

Healthcare Setting: Staff* 210 15 7.2%

Other 1851 145 7.8%

Not recorded 13885 1398 10.1%

Total 92618 10778 11.6% Table 1.1 - Positivity Rate by Circumstances


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Figure 1.1 - Positivity Rates by Circumstances

Secondary Cases by Circumstances of Contact

Circumstances of Contact Number Proportion of Cases

Household 6392 41.9%

Social 1635 15.2%

Workplace 331 3.1%

Primary School 308 2.9%

Early years Register 185 1.7%

Second Level Education 131 1.2%

Transport: flight 65 0.6%

Transport: non-flight 64 0.6%

Sport 48 0.4%

Other Educational Setting 40 0.4%

Healthcare Setting: Patient* 21 0.2%

Healthcare Setting: Staff* 15 0.1%

Other 145 1.3%

Not recorded 1398 13.0%

Total 15264 100% Table 1.2 - Secondary Cases by Circumstances of Contact

Household

SocialPrimarySchool

Workplace

SecondLevel

Education

Earlyyears

Register

Transport:

flightSport

OtherEducati

onalSetting

Transport:non-flight

Healthcare

Setting:Patient

*

Healthcare

Setting:Staff*

OtherNot

recorded

Column2 19.60% 9.00% 3.50% 5.60% 3.00% 5.20% 5.80% 4.60% 6.10% 10.80% 7.10% 7.20% 7.80% 10.10%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

POSITIVE RESULTS BY CIRCUMSTANCES (%)


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Figure 1.2 - Secondary Cases by Circumstances of Contact

Positivity Rate by Contact Age Group

Age Group Total Number of

Results Number of Positive

Results Proportion of

Positive Results 0 to 9 16964 1656 9.8%

10 to 19 20472 2356 11.5%

20 to 29 16652 2099 12.6%

30 to 39 10715 1228 11.5%

40 to 49 10109 1197 11.8%

50 to 59 9808 1174 12.0%

60 to 69 5131 683 13.3%

70 to 79 2066 283 13.7%

80+ 701 102 14.6%

Total 92618 10778 11.6% Table 1.3 - Positivity Rate by Age Group

1398

145

15

21

40

48

64

65

131

185

308

331

1635

6392

Not recorded

Other

Healthcare Setting: Staff*

Healthcare Setting: Patient*

Other Educational Setting

Sport

Transport: non-flight

Transport: flight

Second Level Education

Early years Register

Primary School

Workplace

Social

Household

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

NUMBER OF SECONDARY CASES BY CIRCUMSTANCES OF CONTACT


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Figure 1.3- Proportion of Positive Results by Age Group

Positivity Rate by Gender

Gender Total Number of Results Number of

Positive Results Proportion of Positive Results

(95% Confidence Interval)

Female 46826 5341 11.4% Male 45668 5424 11.8% Other 124 13 10.5% Total 92618 10778 11.6%

Table 1.4 -Positivity Rate by Gender

Figure 1.4 - Positive Results by Gender with 95% Confidence Intervals

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

0 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80+ Total

POSITIVE RESULTS BY AGE GROUP (%)

9.50% 10.00% 10.50% 11.00% 11.50% 12.00%

Fem…

Male

Other

POSITIVE RESULTS BY GENDER (%)


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Proportion of Secondary Cases by Age Group and Gender

Female Male Other Total

Number % Number % Number % Number %

0 to 9 845 15.8% 809 14.9% 2 15.4% 1656 15.4%

10 to 19 1109 20.8% 1239 22.8% 8 61.5% 2356 21.9%

20 to 29 995 18.6% 1104 20.3% 0 0.0% 2099 19.5%

30 to 39 635 11.9% 590 10.9% 3 23.1% 1228 11.4%

40 to 49 623 11.7% 574 10.6% 0 0.0% 1197 11.1%

50 to 59 596 11.2% 578 10.7% 0 0.0% 1174 10.9%

60 to 69 331 6.2% 352 6.5% 0 0.0% 683 6.3%

70 to 79 145 2.7% 138 2.5% 0 0.0% 283 2.6%

80+ 52 1.2% 42 0.8% 0 0.0% 104 1.0% Table 1.5 - Secondary Cases by Age Group and Gender

Figure 1.5 - Secondary Cases by Age Group and Gender

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80+

NUMBER OF CASES BY AGE GROUP AND GENDER

Other

Male

Female


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Positivity Rate by County

County Total Number of

Contacts with Results Number of Positive

Results Proportion of Positive

Results Carlow 748 98 13.1%

Cavan 2215 337 15.2%

Clare 2782 253 9.1%

Cork 9711 1296 13.3%

Donegal 3759 466 12.4%

Dublin 27865 3507 12.6%

Galway 5247 527 10.0%

Kerry 1932 228 11.8%

Kildare 3774 406 10.8%

Kilkenny 1040 135 13.0%

Laois 1491 143 9.6%

Leitrim 353 35 9.9%

Limerick 4651 463 10.0%

Longford 916 78 8.5%

Louth 2134 275 12.9%

Mayo 1832 182 9.9%

Meath 4325 564 13.0%

Monaghan 1356 193 14.2%

Offaly 1796 133 7.4%

Roscommon 1260 145 11.5%

Sligo 1033 129 12.5%

Tipperary 1590 151 9.5%

Waterford 1655 231 14.0%

Westmeath 2249 211 9.4%

Wexford 1745 181 10.4%

Wicklow 2194 196 8.9%

Not Recorded 2965 215 7.3%

Total 92618 10778 11.6% Table 1.6- Positivity Rate by County


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Figure 1.6 - Contact Results by County of Residence

0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%

Total

Not Recorded

Wicklow

Wexford

Westmeath

Waterford

Tipperary

Sligo

Roscommon

Offaly

Monaghan

Meath

Mayo

Louth

Longford

Limerick

Leitrim

Laois

Kilkenny

Kildare

Kerry

Galway

Dublin

Donegal

Cork

Clare

Cavan

Carlow

POSITIVE RESULTS BY COUNTY (%)

Positivity Rate


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Secondary Cases by County

County Total Number Proportion of Cases

Dublin 3507 32.5%

Cork 1296 12.0%

Meath 564 5.2%

Galway 527 4.9%

Donegal 466 4.3%

Limerick 463 4.3%

Kildare 406 3.8%

Cavan 337 3.1%

Louth 275 2.6%

Clare 253 2.3%

Waterford 231 2.1%

Kerry 228 2.1%

Westmeath 211 2.0%

Wicklow 196 1.8%

Monaghan 193 1.8%

Mayo 182 1.7%

Wexford 181 1.7%

Tipperary 151 1.4%

Roscommon 145 1.3%

Laois 143 1.3%

Kilkenny 135 1.3%

Offaly 133 1.2%

Sligo 129 1.2%

Carlow 98 0.9%

Longford 78 0.7%

Leitrim 35 0.3%

Not Recorded 215 2.0% Table 1.7 - Secondary Cases by County of Residence


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Figure 1.7 - Secondary Cases by County of Residence

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Not Recorded

Leitrim

Longford

Carlow

Sligo

Offaly

Kilkenny

Laois

Roscommon

Tipperary

Wexford

Mayo

Monaghan

Wicklow

Westmeath

Kerry

Waterford

Clare

Louth

Cavan

Kildare

Limerick

Donegal

Galway

Meath

Cork

Dublin

NUMBER OF CASES BY COUNTY OF RESIDENCE


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Part 2: Close and Complex Contacts 15th to 22nd November 2020

Volume of Contacts

The number of close contacts captured during the week ending November 15th was 6,490, a 12%

decrease compared to the previous week. To date, 94% of these contacts have been successfully

informed of their close contact status. The number of complex contacts* also decreased by 12% this

week, from 1,473 to 1294.

*Note: a complex contact is created when a case has been in contact with a setting or group of people during their

infectious period. Individual close contacts arising from these complex episodes of contact are included in analysis of close

contacts. Further definitions for close and complex contacts are provided in the appendix.

Figure 2.1 - Close and Complex Contact Numbers

Complex Contacts

The number of nursing homes captured as complex contacts decreased by 54% to 98. A 5% decrease

was also seen in the number of hospital-related contact episodes.

WE30/08

WE06/09

WE13/09

WE20/09

WE27/09

WE04/10

WE11/10

WE18/10

WE25/10

WE01/11

WE08/11

WE15/11

WE22/11

Close Contacts 3854 4203 7183 8887 10587 11614 15224 19337 21131 11099 7415 7374 6490

Complex Contacts 350 487 660 905 1226 1565 1926 2281 2250 1477 1262 1473 1294

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Total Number of Contacts by Week


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Figure 2.2 - Reason for Complexity

Social VenueEducational

Institute

PotentialOutbreak in

Another SettingHospital Flight Nursing Home

WE 27/09 324 229 424 57 21 32

WE 04/10 274 315 685 101 64 86

WE 11/10 382 314 822 126 33 123

WE 18/10 343 583 938 150 21 72

WE 25/10 207 681 838 244 25 119

WE 01/11 82 350 408 280 50 140

WE 08/11 42 215 319 377 47 145

WE 15/11 54 265 358 402 57 211

WE 22/11 28 266 378 383 36 98

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Reason for Complexity


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Volume of Cases

The total number of cases managed by the Contact Management Programme for the week ending

November 22nd was 2,274, a week on week decrease of 22%. This represents 94% of the cases

reported via the CCT during this period.

Figure 2.3 - Volume of Cases Managed using CCT

Attendance at Testing

Of the close contacts created between 16th and 21st November, to date 85% have attended their Day

0 Test and 65% have attended their Day 7 Test.

Figure 2.4 - Close Contact Attendance Rates at Day and Day 7 Tests

WE 2709 WE 0410 WE 1110 WE 1810 WE 2510 WE 0111 WE 0811 WE 1511 WE 2211

Number of Cases 2225 3222 4408 4969 7356 4182 3168 2930 2274

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Number of Cases Managed by CMP by Week

8083 83 83

8381

85 84 85

85

5658

63

55

6675 80 79

73 65

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

WE 2009 WE 2709 WE 0410 WE 1110 WE 1810 WE 2510 WE 0111 WE 0811 WE 1511 WE 2211

TEST ATTENDANCE RATES

Day 0 Day 7


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Close Contact Positivity Rates*

Close contact positivity rates over the past six eight weeks are outlined in table 2.1 below.

Contact Creation Date

Day 0 Positivity Rate Day 7 Positivity Rate General Population Positivity Rate

WE 2709 10.8% 4.7% 2.9%

WE 0410 12.3% 2.6% 3.6%

WE 1110 14.8% 4.7% 5.8%

WE 1810 11.7% 3.4% 5.9%

WE 2510 11.3% 3.6% 4.8%

WE 0111 16.3% 3.7% 3.9%

WE 0811 14.8% 2.9% 3.8%

WE 1511 15.2% 3.6% 3.5%

WE 2211 13.9% 3.1% 3.0%

Table 2.1 - Day 0 and Day 7 Positivity Rate

Figure 2.5 - Day 0 and Day 7 Positivity Rates by Week of Contact Creation

*Positivity rates are based on the results returned to date and are thus subject to change.

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

WE 0410 WE 1110 WE 1810 WE 2510 WE 0111 WE 0811 WE 1511 WE 2211

POSITIVITY RATES

Day 0 Positivity Rate Day 7 Positivity Rate


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Authors: Dr Ciara Carroll, Ms.Davinia O’Donnell, Dr. Claire Buckley ,Dr Jennifer Martin

Close Contact Overview – 9th to 15th November

Tables 2.2 to 2.6 and figures 2.7 to 2.10 below provide more detailed illustration of numbers,

geographic location, circumstances and symptomatic status of close contacts.

Figure 2.6 - Close Contacts per Case

Close Contacts per Case

The mean and median number of close contacts per case recorded on the CCT for the last week, is

outlined, below.

Week Median Mean 16/11/2020 2.0 3.8

17/11/2020 3.0 3.8 18/11/2020 3.0 3.8

19/11/2020 3.0 3.9 20/11/2020 3.0 4.0

21/11/2020 3.0 3.5

22/11/2020 3.0 3.9 Table 2.2 - Median and Mean Close Contacts per Case


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Contacts by Region

Region No. of Close Contacts

East 2078

Midlands 207 Midwest 742

Northeast 781 Northwest 501

South 926 Southeast 509

West 496

Not Recorded 250 Total 6490

Table 2.3 - Contacts by Region

Figure 2.7 - Close Contacts by Region

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Not Recorded

West

Southeast

South

Northwest

Northeast

Midwest

Midlands

East

Close Contacts by Region


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Close Contact: Demographic Details

Age Group Female Male Other Not Recorded Total 0-9 362 385 2 27 776

10-19 662 577 0 39 1278 20-29 506 469 2 25 1002

30-39 412 353 2 27 794 40-49 395 377 0 23 795

50-59 344 322 0 20 686

60-69 201 201 0 7 409 70-79 65 89 0 8 162

80+ 46 36 0 3 85 Not Recorded 174 183 3 143 503

Total 3167 2992 9 322 6490 Table 2.4 - Age and Gender of Close Contacts

Close Contact Demographic Details

Figure 2.8 - Breakdown of Close Contacts by Age and Gender

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0-9 10-19. 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 NotRecorded

Close Contact Demogragphic Details

Female Male Other Not Recorded


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Close Contacts: Circumstances and Symptoms

Circumstances and Symptoms

Circumstance

Symptoms

Total Symptomatic Asymptomatic

Unable To Verify

Not Recorded

Household 535 2383 150 48 3116

Social: other 139 561 37 33 770

Social contact with extended family

105 581 31 9 726

Workplace 43 321 19 17 400

Healthcare Setting: Patient

7 65 11 0 83

Transport: other 10 53 1 2 66

Healthcare Setting: Staff

9 39 1 0 49

Third level education 12 31 1 1 45

Secondary level education

2 13 0 0 15

Sport Outdoor activity

3 8 0 0 11

Restaurant/café 1 6 1 3 11

Transport: flight 0 7 1 0 8

Pre-school 0 5 2 0 7

Primary school 1 4 0 1 6

Special school 0 4 0 0 4

Sport Indoor activity 1 0 0 0 1

Other 18 89 10 1 118

Not Recorded 144 789 94 27 1054

Total 1030 4959 359 142 6490

Table 2.5 - Contact Circumstances and Symptoms


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Figure 2.9 - Circumstances of Contact

Complex Contacts Overview

Reason for Complexity Number Hospital 383 Potential outbreak in another setting 378

Educational Institute 266 Nursing Home 98

Flight 36

Public transport 35 Other Residential Care Setting 32

Social Venue 28 Home Help Services 22

Member of the Traveller Community 6

Asylum Seeker Accommodation 4 Homeless Accommodation 3

Prison 3 Total 1294

Table 2.6 - Reason for Complexity

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Other

Not Recorded

Transport

Educational Setting

Healthcare Related

Workplace

Social

Household

Circumstances of Contact with Symptom Status

Symptomatic Asymptomatic Unable To Verify Not Recorded


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Figure 2.10 - Complex Contact Reason for Complexity

Data are provisional - Some close contacts are managed off the CCT.

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Homeless Accommodation

Prison

Asylum Seeker Accommodation

Member of the Traveller Community

Home Help Services

Social Venue

Other Residential Care Setting

Public transport

Flight

Nursing Home

Educational Institute

Potential outbreak in another setting

Hospital

Reason for Complexity


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Appendix: Contact Definitions

Close Contacts

Close Contacts are defined as:

Any person that the case has been in face to face contact for longer than 15

minutes in any setting.

Any person who shared a closed space for longer than 2 hours.

Contact tracers select one of the following circumstances of contact:

Household contacts are defined as living or sleeping in the same house,

individuals in shared accommodation sharing kitchen and bathroom facilities

and sexual partners.

Workplace contacts are close contacts from the workplace.

Social contacts include close contacts from the extended family, close contacts

in restaurants, cafés and public houses, and other social contacts.

Sport contacts include close contacts from sporting and recreational activities.

Primary School contacts include staff and students in primary schools.

Second Level Education contacts include staff and students in second level

schools.

Early years register contacts include staff and students in crèches and pre-

schools.

Other Educational Setting contacts include close contacts from third-level

institutes and universities, English language schools and special schools.

Transport: flight contacts are close contacts from flights.

Transport: non-flight contacts include close contacts from public transport, taxis

and cars.

Healthcare Setting: Patient are close contacts who were patients in healthcare

settings where the contact has only occurred in that setting. Most patients in

healthcare settings are managed off the CCT by Infection Prevention & Control.

Healthcare Setting: Staff are close contacts who work in healthcare settings and

the contact was limited to those settings. Most staff in healthcare settings are

managed off the CCT by Occupational Health.

Other: these are close contacts where the circumstances of contact are known

but not included in one of the categories above.


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Not recorded: no circumstances of contact recorded

Complex Contacts

A complex contact is a situation where the contact is not a known named individual

but relates to, for example, a congregate setting where an individual could be called

and a list of contacts constructed.

Contact tracers select one of the following reasons for complexity:

Hospital: case has been a patient, member of staff or visitor to a hospital during

their infectious period.

Nursing home: case is a resident, member of staff or has visited a nursing home

during their infectious period.

Other Residential Care Setting: case is a resident, member of staff or has visited

a residential care setting that is not a nursing home during their infectious

period.

Flight: the case was on a flight (as staff or as a passenger) during their infectious

period.

Homeless Accommodation/hostel: case is a resident or member of staff in

homeless accommodation.

Asylum Seeker Accommodation (Direct Provision Centre): case is a resident or

member of staff in asylum seeker accommodation.

Prison: case was an inmate or worked in a prison during their infectious period.

Public transport: case used public transport during their infectious period.

Social Venue: case attended or worked in a social venue such as a restaurant,

cinema or bar during their infectious period.

Member of the Traveller Community: case is a resident in a halting site or a

member of the Traveller community.

Educational Institute: case attended or worked in a crèche, school, university or

other educational setting during their infectious period.

Home Help Services: case interacted with or provided home help services during

their infectious period.

Member of Roma Community: case is a member of the Roma community.


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Potential outbreak in another setting: case worked in or attended a setting that is not included in the list above during their infectious period. These include hairdressers and beauty salons and food production factories.

Ends.

cmp close contact report

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