cnbc fed survey - audience results, september 19, 2011

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FED SURVEY of CNBC Viewers & CNBC.com Users – September 19, 2011

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FED SURVEY - ‘Main Street’ CNBC Viewers & CNBC.com Users

September 19, 2011

These survey results represent the opinions of almost 5000 CNBC viewers and CNBC.com

users.

They ( ‘Main Street’) responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were collected on September 15 through September 19, 2011. Participants were

not required to answer every question.

Results are also shown for identical questions asked of professional economists, money

managers, and analysts (‘Wall Street’) in our monthly CNBC Fed Survey for September.

This is not a scientific random poll.

1. Will there be another Federal Reserve quantitativeeasing program in the next year (12 months)?

48%

45%

8%

34%

59%

7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Yes

No

Don't Know/Unsure

Main Street Wall Street




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September 19, 2011

2. Will the Fed conduct an "Operation Twist" in which itsells short-term securities in its portfolio and buys

long-term securities?

73%

14% 13%

69%

20%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Yes No Don't Know/Unsure





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September 19, 2011

3. How would you characterize the Fed's currentmonetary policy?

57%

28%

10%

6%

39%

40%

12%

9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Too accommodative

Just right

Too restrictive

Don’t know/Unsure





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September 19, 2011

4. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will be on … ?

5. What do you expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note willbe on … ?

1182

1201

1254

1312

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

December 31, 2011 June 30, 2012


2.04%

2.30%2.25%

2.59%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

December 31, 2011 June 30, 2012





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September 19, 2011

6. What is your forecast for the year-over-year percentage change

in real U.S. GDP?

7. Where do you expect the fed f unds target rate will be on … ?

1.22%

1.43%

1.68%

2.24%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

2011 2012


0.34%

0.48%

0.68%

0.13%

0.16%

0.27%

0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8%

Dec 31 2011

June 30 2012

Dec 31 2012





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September 19, 2011

8. In the next 12 months, what percent probability do youplace on the U.S. entering recession? (0%=No chanceof recession, 100%=Certainty of recession)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Average Probability of Recession

Main Street: 59.5% Wall Street: 36.1%

cnbc fed survey - audience results, september 19, 2011

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