c/nofs press conference
TRANSCRIPT
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C/NOFS Press Conference
AGU 15 December 2008
Don Hunton and Odile de La Beaujardière
Air Force Research Laboratory Space Vehicles Directorate
Rod Heelis, The University of Texas at Dallas
Rob Pfaff, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
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C/NOFS
Dr. Donald Hunton
C/NOFS Technical Manager
Air Force Research Laboratory
Space Vehicles Directorate
Dr. Donald Hunton
C/NOFS Technical Manager
Air Force Research Laboratory
Space Vehicles Directorate
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Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System [NASA animation]
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• Communication
• Navigation
• Outage
• Forecasting
• System
C/NOFS Communication
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• Communication
• Navigation
• Outage
• Forecasting
• System
C/NOFS Navigation
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• Communication
• Navigation
• Outage
• Forecasting
• System
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Ionospheric Scintillation
Variations in signal amplitude and phase
caused by irregularities in ionosphere
Undisturbed Ionosphere
Disturbed Ionosphere:- Bubbles- Plumes- Spread-F- Plasma instabilities
Clear Reception Signal Interference- Distortion- Fade- Dropouts, signal loss
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C/NOFS Forecasting
• Communication
• Navigation
• Outage
• Forecasting
• System
Probability of scintillation, on average,
is known as a function of…
Time of Day
Time of Year Solar Cycle
Equatorial Scintillation Belt
Magnetic Latitude & Longitude
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C/NOFS Forecasting
But …
“Will scintillation
impact my operations
tonight?”
C/NOFS seeks to make the leap
from climate to true forecasting
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Weather vs “Space Weather”
The C/NOFS approach is similar to
terrestrial weather forecasting.
Meteorologists have satellite and ground-
based observations which serve as input to
computer models that provide forecasts of
weather conditions several days ahead.
For the first time ever we have the C/NOFS
satellite, ground-based sensors, and complex
computer models all focused on the ionosphere.
With C/NOFS, scientists have the
capability to generate the first
“space weather” forecasts.
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C/NOFS is more than just a satellite!
• Communication
• Navigation
• Outage
• Forecasting
• System
4-D Data Cube
Space Segment
Ground Segment
Data/Model Segment
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C/NOFS
Dr. Odile de La Beaujardière
C/NOFS Science Principal Investigator
Air Force Research Laboratory
Space Vehicles Directorate
Dr. Odile de La Beaujardière
C/NOFS Science Principal Investigator
Air Force Research Laboratory
Space Vehicles Directorate
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C/NOFS Observations of Ionospheric Structures
Ionosphere at solar minimum is highly structured and easily perturbed.
Plasma densities (top) and
vertical drifts (bottom)
observed on 14 Oct 2008
as the C/NOFS satellite
flew through the
disturbed ionosphere.
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Irregularities Appear After Midnight
• Plasma bubbles form
after midnight
• Appear most intense
above Africa
• Bubbles elongated
along Earth’s
magnetic field lines
Electron Density, 1 Jun 08
Satellite Trajectory
Magnetic Field Lines
Satellite Altitude
Longitude
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Dawn Depletion Seen by CHAMP and C/NOFS
• Upper atmosphere is
still in darkness, but
the sun will hit it
very soon
• Dawn depletions are
like a funnel moving
around the Earth as
the sun rises
• They are roughly
50° by 20° in the
N-S and E-W
directions,
respectively
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Birth and Growth of Equatorial Bubbles
• Snapshots of plasma
density from numerical
model at 5 local times
• In equatorial plane
(altitude and longitude)
• Model represents bubble
evolution quite well
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C/NOFS Mission Goals
1. Nowcast and forecast ionospheric electron density and presence of irregularities
– Irregularities and scintillation are mostly quiet time phenomena
– Regularly occur when there are no magnetic storms
– Challenge: to forecast ionospheric conditions when the Sun is quiet!
2. Develop capability to produce 2 to 5 day forecasts
3. Improve understanding of equatorial ionosphere structure and dynamics
4. Determine parameters that trigger and suppress irregularities
C/NOFS is the first mission
fully equipped to forecast
the “weather” of the
ionosphere.
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Communication / Navigation
Outage Forecasting System
• C/NOFS
– Spacecraft instruments, ground-based sensors, integrated models
focused on the ionosphere to forecast conditions that degrade
RF communication and GPS navigation signals.
• C/NOFS results unlock some mysteries and present others.
– Solar minimum ionosphere is highly structured.
– Irregularities are observed after midnight and
before sunrise as well as in the early evening.
– Electron densities are ~ 10 times lower than
most models predicted even for solar minimum.
• More “space weather” forecasting challenges lie ahead.
C/NOFS
It does not take a solar storm to disturb the ionosphere!
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Prof. Roderick Heelis
CINDI Principal Investigator
The University of Texas at Dallas
Prof. Roderick Heelis
CINDI Principal Investigator
The University of Texas at Dallas
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The Ionosphere at Solar Minimum
C/NOFS has observed the top of the ionosphere at solar minimum
continuously for the first time. It is a surface that “breathes” - up
during the day and down at night.
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The Day and Night Ionosphere
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C/NOFS Preliminary Results
C/NOFS
• C/NOFS spacecraft is in a unique environment; solar EUV
flux is at the lowest levels ever recorded!
• Height of the topside of the ionosphere is
unexpectedly low.
• Altitude range of the ionospheric layer is also far lower
than expected even at solar minimum.
C/NOFS has provided a
fundamental new image of our
planet and its space environment.
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Dr. Rob Pfaff
CINDI Project Scientist
VEFI Principal Investigator
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Goddard Space Flight Center
Dr. Rob Pfaff
CINDI Project Scientist
VEFI Principal Investigator
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Goddard Space Flight Center
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Communication / Navigation Outage Forecasting System
Communication /Navigation Outage Forecasting System
• Serves space weather applications and scientific research
• Provides fundamental new knowledge about Earth’s ionosphere
• Presents first opportunity to forecast “space weather” in Earth’s
upper atmosphere
• Facilitates development of fully-integrated models and forecasts
such as those currently used for tropospheric weather.
More forecasting challenges lie
ahead as solar max approaches!
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SOHO EIT 30 Oct 2008 SOHO EIT 28 Oct 2003
All animations courtesy of NASA Goddard
Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab
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• Equatorial orbit (~13°inclination; Apogee: ~867 km, Perigee: ~401 km)
• Objective: 72 – 120 hour forecast and specification of the ionosphere
• Instruments – IVM: Ion Velocity Meter
• Ion drift velocity
• Electron and ion temperatures
• Electron density and density fluctuations
– NWM: Neutral Wind Monitor• Vector neutral wind velocity
– PLP: Planar Langmuir Probe• Ion density, electron temperature
– CORISS: GPS receiver• Electron density
• Scintillation, comm/nav outages
– CERTO: Radio beacon• RF scintillation
– VEFI: Electric and magnetic field suite• Electric field
• Wave spectra
• Plasma irregularities
C/NOFS Satellite Instruments
C/NOFS
CINDI: IVM and NWM
PI: Rod Heelis, Greg Earle, UTD
PLP
PI: Don Hunton, AFRL
CORISS
PI: Paul Straus, Aerospace
CERTO
PI: Paul Bernhardt, NRL
VEFI
PI: Rob Pfaff, NASA GSFC