co-authors: roy brouwer, tjasa bole, dolf de groot, salman hussain, onno kuik, alistair mcvittie,...
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Co-authors: Roy Brouwer, Tjasa Bole, Dolf de Groot, Salman Hussain, Onno Kuik, Alistair McVittie, Sander van der Ploeg, Peter Verburg, Alfred Wagtendonk
Scaling up ecosystem service values: methodology and applications. II – Value of changes in water quality
Luke Brander
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam
Division of Environment, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Email: [email protected]
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Outline
• Introduction• Methodology: meta-analysis and GIS• Water quality value data• Water quality value function• TEEB case study: global value of water quality changes• Conclusions and discussion
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Introduction
• Need for value information at large spatial scales (e.g. river basin)
• CBA of investments in water quality improvements• Assess disproportionate costs• Value of water quality improvements varies with body
body, context and beneficiary characteristics
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Proposed method for scaling up values
1. Construct database of primary value estimates2. Estimate a meta-analytic value function (including water
abundance variable)3. Construct database of water bodies using GIS4. Estimate site-specific values for changes in water
quality 5. Aggregate across relevant population and spatial level
Meta-analysis
SpatialData (GIS)
Estimatevalues
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Valuation of changes in water quality
$/annum
Water quality
Marginal value curve
Q0Q1
P0
P1
Change in value
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Water quality value data
• AquaMoney database of water quality values• 154 contingent valuation studies (1981 – 2006)• 54 with complete information for meta-analysis• 388 value estimates• Wide variety of descriptions of water quality
change standardised to 10-point water quality index
• Standardised values to WTP/household/year (USD 2007 prices)• Mean = 130 USD/household/year• Median = 78 USD/household/year
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Location of water quality value study sites
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Ecosystem services valued
Ecosystem service Number of estimates
Drinking water 17
Irrigation 3
Nature conservation 80
Fishing 151
Boating 128
Swimming 119
Walking 10
Other recreation 29
Health 4
Amenity 21
Non-use 275
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Meta-analytic value function
• Dependent variable y: Annual WTP per household (USD 2007)
• Study characteristics Xsi:– Valuation method
• Water characteristics Xwi:– Baseline water quality– Change in water quality– Water body type
• Context characteristics Xci:– GCP per capita– Abundance of lakes and rivers within 10km radius– Accessibility index– Urban extent within 20km radius
uXbXbXbay CiCWiWSiSi )ln(
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Meta-analytic value function
Variable name Beta Std. Error
Constant 4.898*** 0.314
WQI_CHANGE 0.081** 0.032
WQI_BASE -0.046 0.041
RIVER dummy -0.472*** 0.127
LAKE dummy -0.563*** 0.209
GCP 50km radius (ln) 0.103*** 0.036
URBAN 20km radius (ln) -0.106*** 0.030
WATER 10km radius (ln) -0.099*** 0.037
ACCESS INDEX -0.416** 0.204
N 388
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TEEB case study: global value of water quality change
• TEEB Quantitative Assessment• Change in water quality 2000 - 2050• OECD baseline scenario of population and
development• IMAGE/GLOBIO model• Global coverage at 50km grid cell resolution • Nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations • Converted to 10-point water quality index• Large variation in positive and negative changes
in water quality
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Changes in water quality 2000-2050
Region Mean Region Mean
Canada -1.26 Turkey -2.51
USA -0.25 Ukraine + -1.79
Mexico -0.47 Asia-Stan -1.87
Rest Central America
-1.26Russia +
-1.24
Brazil -0.82 Middle East -0.65
Rest South America -0.93 India + -2.25
Northern Africa -1.68 Korea -0.01
Western Africa -1.92 China + -1.22
Eastern Africa -2.30 South East Asia -1.32
Southern Africa -2.80 Indonesia + -1.99
Western Europe 0.91 Japan 1.30
Central Europe -0.22 Oceania -1.92
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Changes in water quality 2000 - 2050
• Water quality changes combined with global map of lakes and rivers
• Global lakes and wetlands database GLWD (1x1km grid)
• 375,316 water bodies (lakes and rivers)• Site specific characteristics are substituted into
value function• Household WTP is aggregated across number of
households in 50km grid cell
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Region Annual value Region Annual value
Canada -0.46 Turkey -0.96
USA -0.56 Ukraine + -1.07
Mexico -1.21 Asia-Stan -0.62
Central America -0.96 Russia + -1.32
Brazil -2.11 Middle East -0.91
Rest South America -2.43 India + -25.23
Northern Africa -1.90 Korea -0.22
Western Africa -8.65 China + -8.02
Eastern Africa -3.93 South East Asia -4.55
Southern Africa -3.75 Indonesia + -3.52
Western Europe 2.17 Japan 1.60
Central Europe -0.21 Oceania -0.53
World -69
Annual values in 2050 (billions USD 2007)
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Discussion and conclusions
• Value transfer on a large scale– GIS to account for spatial variation– Scale, substitutes, and income effects
• Limitations:– Does not produce service specific values– Partial valuation: value data is focussed on
recreational uses– Partly accounts for changes in water quantity– Restricted measure of water quality– Difficult to identify relevant population for aggregation