Co-benefits of reducing air-pollution in ASEAN by 2050

while achieving 2 ℃ global temperature limit target

Tatsuya Hanaoka National Institute for Environmental Studies

International Workshop on Air Quality in AsiaM.O.D. Palace Hotel, Ha Noi, Viet Nam

24-26 June 2014

Topics

1. Introduction of AIM (Asia-pacific Integrated Model )

2. Role of the AIM models in S-12 project

3. Co-benefits of reducing air pollutants emissions in ASEAN while achieving 2 degree global temperature limit target

Toward Low Carbon Society

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AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)

AIM is an integrated assessment model -to assess mitigation measures to reduce GHG emissions-to assess impact/adaptation to avoid severe climate change damages

Impact/Adaptation Models

Emission Models

【Country】

【Global】

【Enduse model】

【Economic model】

【Account model】

【sequentialdynamics】

【dynamicoptimization】

【Local】

Agriculture

Water

Human health

Simple Climate Model

Other Models

future society

Population Transportation Residential

GHG emissions

temperature

【Global】 【National/Local】

feedback

AIM/Impact[Policy]

Burden share Stock-flow

IPCC/WG3

IPCC/integrated scenario

Macro-economics

IPCC/WG2

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AIM (Asia-pacific Integrated Model) - International research network -

Japan National Institute for Environmental StudiesKyoto UniversityMizuho Information Research Institute

China Energy Research Institute, NDRCInstitute of Geog. Sci. & Nat. Res. Research, CASInstitute of Env. & Sus. Dev. in Agri, CAASGuangzhou Institute of Ene. Conversion, CAS

India Indian Institute of Management, AhmedabadSchool of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal

Korea Seoul National Univ. Korea Environment Institute

Thailand Asian Institute of Tech.Thammasat Univ.King Mongkut’s Univ.

Malaysia Univ. Tech. MalaysiaIndonesia Bogor Agri. Univ.

Bandung Institute of Tech.Austria IIASANetherlands PBLUSA Pacific Northwest National Lab.

Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford Univ.In addition, collaborating with Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Nepal, Taiwan, ... 5

Global scale

National scaleTop-down approach

Bottom-up approach

Hybrid approach

AIM family for mitigation analysisOutput

Global emission paths to climate stabilization

AIM/Impact[Policy]

AIM/CGE[Global]

Mitigation potentials and costs curves

AIM/Enduse[Global]

model

AIM/CGE[Country]

Mitigation potentials and costs curves

AIM/Enduse[Country]AIM/Energy Snapshot

AIM/Extended Snapshot

Macro-economic driving forces

Macro-economic driving forces

Industrial production,transportation volume, etc

Element / transition(service demand)

Industrial production,transportation volume, etc

Element / transition(service demand)

AIM/Backcast

AIM/Material

The role of AIM models in the S-12 project

MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014-FY2018)

Goal: To develop an integrated evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation policy, by interconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models, and climate models.

Theme 1: Air quality change event analysis・Analysis on regional AQ change・Development of emission inventory ・Inversion algorithms of emission

estimation

Theme 2: Integrated model and future scenarios・Global socio-economic scenarios・National & regional emissions

scenarios・Urban & household emissions AQ

assessment

Theme 3: SLCP impacts on climate& environment・Impact assessment of aerosols & GHG・Assessment of health, agriculture,

water cycle, sea level rise

SLCP emissions scenariosImproved emission inventory

Feedback of impactsAssessment of activities/policies

Regional EmissionInventories and

Chemical Transfer Model

Integrated Assessment Model (AIM)

Climate and Environment

Model

Chemical transfer model and emission inventory in Asia

AIM/Enduse modelSocio-economical & emissions scenario

Climate model, earth system model Climate change impact & adaptation

Theme 4: Integrated operation system (Toolkits, data archive)

MDG・SDG・Future Earth

StakeholdersPolicy makers

Society

Information transmissionSystem utilization

CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANETProposal and assessment of climate and

air pollution policies

Regional strategy

⇅Global

strategy

Science

Experiment setupDatabase development

Metric definitions

Model improvement

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Challenges of S-12 Theme 2

1. indicating socio-economic scenarios considering climate change and environmental impacts and emissions scenarios of Long-lived GHGs(LLGHG) and Short lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP).【global/national/regional scales】

2. Evaluating co-benefits of LLGHG mitigation measures and SLCP reduction measures, and analyzing regional characteristics in detail, in a manner consistent with long-term global scenarios such as 2℃ target. 【national/regional scales in Asia】

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Sub-theme (3)

Sub-theme (1)

Future scenarios AIM

Global CGEModel

Global EnduseModel

National EnduseModel

Household Model

Local Air Pollution Model

Theme 3Env. & Climate

ImpactsGlobal Emission

Scenarios on LLGHG & SLCP

Theme 1EmissionInventory

Theme 4Synthesis

System

Local Emission Scenarios on LLGHG & SLCP

National Emission Scenarios on LLGHG & SLCP

Air P

ollu

tion

Man

agem

ent

Tech

nolo

gies

Nat

iona

l/Loc

al S

cale

Air

Pollu

tion

Man

agem

ent

Polic

ies &

Eve

nt s

Information for Negotiation to

reduce GHG

Env. & Climate Policy in Japan

Assessment of Env. & ClimatePolicies in Asia Green: relation to other

Yellow: relation to env. p

Improvement of Enduse Model(Local Activities & Pollution Management Technologies)

Assessment of Actions & PoliciesFuture scenarios

Impr

oved

Inve

ntor

y

Assessment of Mitigation Costs & Climate Change Impacts

Global LLGHG & SLCP Emission Scenarios

Future Socio-Economic Scenarios

Env. & Climate Impacts

Socio-economic Scenarios Considering Climate & Env. Impacts

Theme 2: Improvement of Integrated Assessment Model and Quantification of Future Scenarios

model

scenario

research goals

Sub-theme (2)

5

10

the AIM/Enduse[Global] model

- analysis at the global scale-Co-benefits of reducing air pollutants emissions

in ASEAN while achieving 2 degree global temperature limit target

Background information- transition from IPCC AR4 to IPCC AR5 -

Three papers discussed how to achieve 450 CO2eq ppm concentration target which is equivalent to 2℃ global temperature limit above pre-industrial levels

Policy makers in COP15 paid attention to the 2℃ global temperature limit above pre-industrial levels in the Copenhagen Accord in 2009

Various papers analysed the role of negative CO2 emissions for achieving GHG emission pathways consistent with the 2℃ target Biomass energy with CCS (BECCS) is one of the essential technologies

and it is difficult to achieve the 2℃ target without BECCS Energy efficiency improvement plays a key role. But the rate of change

toward the 2℃ target is not in line with the current trends, much faster.

IPCC AR4

IPCC AR5

One of the missing discussions is integrated analyses on ancillary benefits of reducing air pollutants, short-lived climate forces(SLCF), and ozone depleting substances(ODS), combined with GHG mitigations, in the context of sustainable development. 12

Objective of this study

1) Estimating technological mitigation potentials and costs of the Kyoto six GHGs to reduce 50 % global GHG emissions by 2050 for achieving GHG emission pathways consistent with the 2℃ target in the long term.

2) Assessing effects of ancillary benefits of reducing air pollutants, SLCF, ODS by achieving the 2℃ target, and analyzing its attribution by sector and region

This study discusses co-benefits of reducing air-pollution in ASEAN by 2050, while achieving 2 degree temperature limit target

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Characteristics of AIM/Enduse model

◆ Bottom-up type model with detailed technology selection framework with optimization

◆ Recursive dynamic model◆ Assessing technological transition over time ◆ Analyzing effect of policies such as carbon/energy tax,

subsidy, regulation and so on.◆ Target Gas :CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, CFCs,

HCFCs, SO2, NOx, BC, etc◆ Target Sectors : multiple sectors

power generation sector, industry sector, residential sector, commercial sector, transport sector, agriculture sector, municipal solid waste sector, fugitive emissions sector, F-gas sector(each of these can be further disaggregated into sub-sectors)

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Regional classification

JPN (Japan)

AUS (Australia)

NZL (New Zealand)

RUS (Russia)

CHN (China)

IND (India)

IDN (Indonesia)

THA (Thailand)

World 32 regions

USA (United States)

XE15 (Western EU-15)

XE10 (Eastern EU-10)

XE2 (Other EU-2)

XSA (Other South Asia)

XEA (Other East Asia)

XSE (Other South-East Asia)

MYS (Malaysia)

CAN (Canada)

TUR (Turkey)

XEWI (Other Western EU in Annex I)

XEEI (Other Eastern EU in Annex I)

XENI (Other EU)

XCS (Central Asia)

XOC (Other Oceania)

VNM (Viet Nam)

KOR (Korea)

MEX (Mexico)

BRA (Brazil)

ARG (Argentine)

XLM (Other Latin America)

ZAF (South Africa)

XAF (Other Africa)

XME (Middle East)

Annex I OECD

ASEAN 15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050GH

G e

mis

sion

s in

Asia

(Gt C

O2e

q)

Cement production

Value added of 2nd industry

Agricultural production

Fluorocarbon emission

Transport volume (Freight)

Energy service (Residential)

Municipal solid waste generation

Energy service (Commercial)

Transportation Demand Model

Household Lifestyle Model

Municipal Solid Waste Model

Cement Production Model

Building sector

Energy Supply sector

Socio-economicscenario

Agricultural Prod & Trade model

FluorocarbonEmission Model

Agriculture sector

Model DatabaseVariable

Solid waste management sector

Transport volume (Passenger)

Crude steelproduction

Steel Production & Trade Model

Gas fuel

Heat

Liquid fuel

Solid fuel

Hydrogen

Energy balance

Primaryenergy

Energy price

Emission factor

EnergyDB

Nuclear Hydro Geothermal

Solar Wind Biomass

Emissions

Energy mining sector

GasCoal Oil

Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse)

Macro Economic

frame Model

Population & Household number

GDP & Sector value added

Macro-economic model

Iron and steelsector

Cementsector

Other industries sector

Transport sector

Fluorocarbon sector

Energy Resource DB

Cost

Lifetime

Technology DB

Efficiency

Diffusion rate

Relations of AIM/Enduse model and element models

Service demand models

Electricity

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Results of future emissions scenarios up to 2050

CO2 emissions in Baseline scenario- from fuel combustion and industry -

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

GtCO

2

EDGER4.2

AIM/Enduse0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050Gt

CO2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

GtCO

2

World Annex I Asia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

GtCO

2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

GtCO

2

China India

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050G

tCO

2

ASEAN

18

SO2

NOx

SO2 & NOx emissions in Baseline- from fuel combustion and industry -

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

MtN

Ox

EDGER4.2

AIM/Enduse

0

50

100

150

200

250

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

MtS

O2

EDGER4.2AIM/Enduse

World

020406080

100120140160180200

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050M

tSO

2

World

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

MtN

Ox

Asia

Asia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

MtS

O2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050M

tNO

x

ASEAN

ASEAN

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Mitigation scenario for achieving 2℃ target- carbon price settings -

The current useful references of carbon pricing such as: EU-ETS carbon prices fluctuated due to global economic change, and

varied around 15-30 EURO/tCO2. The price of CER for CDM projects also fluctuated around 10-20

EURO/tCO2. Due to the economic recession, the carbon price has been on the

decrease, around 5 EURO/tCO2.IEA (2010) reported carbon price is at 175 US$/tCO2 in the 450 ppmv

scenario.

Scenario name 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050Reference 0 0 0 0 0

T50 3.75 12.5 25 37.5 50T100 7.5 25 50 75 100T200 15 50 100 150 200T400 30 100 200 300 400

Future global economy-wide carbon prices scenarios (US$/tCO2)

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Global GHG emissions constraint scenario

Sources）Rogelj, J. et al., (2011), UNEP The Emission Gap Report (2012)

Tota

l GHG

em

issi

ons [

GtC

O2

eq]

2020年 2030年2050年

Around 50% reduction

of staying below 2.5 degree compared to pre-industrial levels

of staying below 3 degree compared to pre-industrial levels

of staying below 2 degree compared to pre-industrial levels

Dotted lines show “The median global GHG emissions pathway in the range of global GHG emissions pathwayswith a "likely" probability (greater than 66%)”

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Global GHG emissions pathwaysand comparison with 2 ℃ target pathways

The global GHG emissions pathways by AIM/Enduse[Global] are compared with the emissions pathways consistent with the 2℃ target scenarios. Transitions toward the 2℃ target are not in line with the current trend. T400 scenario can only achieve the 2℃ target scenario. It requires high carbon price around 400 US$/tCO2 in 2050 (T400 scenario),

which is necessary to consider comprehensive strategies to promote mitigation technologies to achieve the maximum potentials of energy savings.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Glo

bal G

HG e

mis

sion

s (G

t CO

2eq)

Reference

T50

T100

T200

T400

2 ℃

2.5 ℃

3 ℃

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GHG emissions pathways in ASEANand comparison with 2 ℃ target pathways

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SO2 & NOx emissions pathways in ASEAN- Cobenefits of implementing CO2 mitigation policies-

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BC & PM emissions pathways in ASEAN- Cobenefits of implementing CO2 mitigation policies-

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Conclusion

Mitigation measures of energy efficiency improvement on the demand side and the shift to less-or non-carbon energies on the supply side play important roles in reducing CO2 emissions as well as increasing cobenefits of air pollutant emissions reductions.

400 US$/tCO2 carbon tax scenario can achieve pathways in the range of 2℃ target scenarios and global emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx are largely reduced around 60-90% compared to baseline in 2050.

Energy shift in the energy supply sector largely contribute to reducing GHGs as well as SO2 in ASEAN. However, NOx are derived from transport as well as energy supply, and there are limitations to shifting from fuel vehicles to Hybrid, plug-in Hybrid, electric vehicles in developing countries.

One caveat is that, to focus on cobenefits of reducing air pollutants by introducing GHG mitigation measures, air pollutant removal devices are not considered.

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