Coas

tal C

arol

ina

Regi

onal

Airp

ort

Airp

ortM

aste

r Pla

n U

pdat

e

Mar

ch 2

3, 2

017

11:3

0 AM

Stak

ehol

der W

orki

ng G

roup

Mee

ting

#2

Airp

ort I

nven

tory

& A

viat

ion

Dem

and

Fore

cast

s

Agen

da

•In

trod

uctio

n

•EW

N A

ir Se

rvic

e M

arke

t Res

earc

h

•EW

N P

asse

nger

Dem

and

Anal

ysis

•Dr

aft C

hapt

er 2

(Avi

atio

n Fo

reca

sts)

•Co

mm

erci

al P

asse

nger

Term

inal

Ove

rvie

w

•Cr

itica

l Airc

raft

•Dr

aft C

hapt

er 1

(Inv

ento

ry)

•Pr

ojec

t Flo

w C

hart

•N

ext S

teps

& S

ched

ule

1

Air S

ervi

ce M

arke

t Res

earc

h (A

SMR)

&

Pass

enge

r Dem

and

Anal

ysis

(PDA

) –M

ead

& H

unt

2

Mar

ket R

esea

rch

to In

form

Com

mer

cial

For

ecas

ts

Air S

ervi

ce M

arke

t Res

earc

h (A

SMR)

•In

dust

ry o

verv

iew

and

tren

ds•

Mar

ket/

airp

ort o

verv

iew

•M

arke

t/ai

rline

com

paris

ons

•Si

mila

r to

a st

reng

ths,

wea

knes

ses,

opp

ortu

nitie

s and

thre

ats

(SW

OT) a

naly

sis

Pass

enge

r Dem

and

Anal

ysis

(PDA

)•

An e

stim

ate

of to

tal a

irlin

e pa

ssen

gers

in th

e ca

tchm

ent a

rea.

•Pe

rcen

tage

of a

ir se

rvic

e ca

tchm

ent a

rea

air t

rave

lers

usin

g th

e lo

cal a

irpor

t•

Dive

rsio

n of

airl

ine

pass

enge

r tra

ffic

to c

ompe

ting

airp

orts

•Ai

rline

s use

d by

loca

l air

trav

eler

s•

Aver

age

airfa

res b

y or

igin

and

des

tinat

ion

airp

ort

•An

ass

essm

ent o

f the

air

serv

ice

situa

tion

3

Indu

stry

Tre

nds -

Capa

city

•Se

ats a

t med

ium

/larg

e hu

b ai

rpor

ts h

ave

incr

ease

d.•

Non

-hub

/sm

all h

ub a

irpor

ts

have

dec

reas

ed.

•O

ver s

ame

perio

d, E

WN

(non

-hu

b ai

rpor

t) se

ats h

ave

decr

ease

d 23

%.

U.S

. DO

MES

TIC

CAPA

CITY

CHA

NG

E BY

AIR

PORT

SIZ

E

(25%

)

(20%

)

(15%

)

(10%

)

(5%

)

0%5%10%

% c

hang

e in

sea

ts J

uly

2016

vs.

Jul

y 20

11

(23%

)

(1%

)(3

%)

7%

9%

7%

EW

NN

on-h

ubS

mal

l hub

Med

ium

hub

Larg

e hu

bTo

tal

4

•Ai

rline

s hav

e be

en c

onsis

tent

ly p

rofit

able

sinc

e 20

10 a

nd w

ill

cont

inue

to b

e pr

ofita

ble

in 2

017

and

beyo

nd in

the

near

-ter

m.

•Al

low

s airl

ines

to g

row

ver

sus s

hrin

k.

Airli

nes h

ave

retu

rned

to p

rofit

abili

ty

INDU

STRY

TRE

NDS

–PR

OFI

T &

LOSS

($50

)

($40

)

($30

)

($20

)

($10

)

$0$10

$20

$30

Airline net income (Billions)

Cum

ulat

ive

prof

it si

nce

1990

5

•De

clin

es in

fuel

kee

ping

cos

ts in

che

ck -

low

er c

osts

a c

ontr

ibut

or to

incr

ease

d pr

ofits

.•

Stre

ngth

for E

WN

but

can

qui

ckly

bec

ome

a th

reat

.

INDU

STRY

TRE

NDS

–FU

EL

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

$5.0 2

005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Jet A Per Gallon

Fuel

pric

es h

ave

stab

ilize

d re

cent

ly

6

Indu

stry

Tre

nds –

Flee

t Cha

nges

•Ty

pe o

f airc

raft

bei

ng

oper

ated

shift

ing

from

tu

rbop

rop

and

30-5

0 se

at

regi

onal

jets

.•

Larg

er, 2

-cla

ss re

gion

al je

t is

incr

easin

g.•

As tu

rbop

rop

and

smal

l re

gion

al je

t airc

raft

are

re

tired

, the

re is

a th

reat

to

the

leve

l of f

requ

ency

bei

ng

prov

ided

as m

arke

t abs

orbs

hi

gher

seat

cap

acity

.

AIR

CR

AFT

TY

PE

DEP

ARTU

RES

JUL

'16

JUL

'11

CH

ANG

E

Turb

opro

p (<

30)

47,1

4965

,287

(28%

)Tu

rbop

rop

(30-

50)

19,6

1043

,099

(55%

)Tu

rbop

rop

(50+

)12

,324

21,8

28(4

4%)

Reg

iona

l jet

(30-

50)

117,

572

191,

163

(38%

)R

egio

nal j

et (5

1-70

)40

,473

37,4

238%

R

egio

nal j

et (7

1-10

0)38

,286

20,9

3483

%

Nar

row

-bod

y (7

0-12

5)79

,037

100,

013

(21%

)N

arro

w-b

ody

(126

-160

)25

9,31

125

7,91

41%

N

arro

w-b

ody

(> 1

60)

151,

921

59,8

3815

4%

Tota

l US

Dom

estic

771,

390

804,

487

(4%

)A

ll Tu

rbop

rops

79,0

8313

0,21

4(3

9%)

All

Reg

iona

l Jet

s19

6,33

124

9,52

0(2

1%)

All

Nar

row

-bod

y Je

ts49

0,26

941

7,76

517

%

7

•Lo

ad fa

ctor

s dro

pped

slig

htly

with

incr

ease

d ca

paci

ty b

ut re

mai

n st

rong

–ne

ed to

rem

ain

in

the

80-8

5% ra

nge.

•Pa

ssen

gers

hav

e de

crea

sed

rece

ntly

eve

n as

capa

city

has

incr

ease

d.

MAR

KET

TREN

DS –

CAPA

CITY

AN

D EN

PLAN

EMEN

TSLo

ad fa

ctor

s in

the

80-8

5% ra

nge

4045505560657075808590

80,0

00

90,0

00

100,

000

110,

000

120,

000

130,

000

140,

000

150,

000

160,

000

170,

000

180,

000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Load Factor %

Seats/Onboard Passengers

Year

End

ed

Sea

tsP

asse

nger

sLo

ad F

acto

r

8

Mar

ket T

rend

s -Fa

res

•Av

erag

e fa

re a

t EW

N h

as b

een

incr

easin

g ov

er th

e pa

st 1

0 ye

ars.

•In

crea

se w

as in

line

with

the

US

aver

age

until

the

last

co

uple

yea

rs.

•Re

venu

e is

up 3

3% o

ver t

he

last

10

year

s w

ith in

crea

sing

pass

enge

rs a

nd fa

res.

$160

$170

$180

$190

$200

$210

$220

$230

$240

$250

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Year

End

ed J

une

30

EW

N A

vera

ge F

are

29

5

(14)

17

(2)

13

4

14

26

18

(11)

33

(20)

(10)010203040

Percentage Change (%)

Pas

seng

ers

Ave

rage

Far

eR

even

ue

2007

-201

020

13-2

016

2010

-201

320

07-2

016

9

Rout

e Pe

rfor

man

ce –

Amer

ican

•EW

N h

ad a

RAS

Mof

27.

9 ce

nts

at a

stag

e le

ngth

of 2

21 m

iles,

be

low

Am

eric

an’s

Char

lott

e av

erag

e.

•Ho

wev

er, E

WN

’sRA

SMim

prov

ed

year

-ove

r-ye

ar, i

ncre

asin

g by

5

perc

ent f

rom

a R

ASM

of 2

6.4

cent

s.

•EW

N’s

Char

lott

e lo

ad fa

ctor

of

81 p

erce

nt w

as 3

per

cent

age

poin

ts b

elow

Am

eric

an’s

syst

em

aver

age

of 8

4 pe

rcen

t at

Char

lott

e.

EWN

5152535455565

5010

015

020

025

030

035

040

045

050

0

RASM (cents)

Stag

e le

ngth

(0-5

00 m

iles)

10

Rout

e Pe

rfor

man

ce –

Delta

•EW

N h

ad a

RAS

Mof

19.

8 ce

nts a

t a st

age

leng

th o

f 433

m

iles.

•

This

is an

incr

ease

of 1

pe

rcen

t ove

r yea

r end

ed Ju

ne

30, 2

015,

whe

n EW

N’s

RASM

was

19.

6 ce

nts.

•

With

an

aver

age

load

fact

or o

f 83

per

cent

, EW

N’s

load

fact

or

was

4 p

erce

ntag

e po

ints

lo

wer

than

Del

ta’s

aver

age

at

Atla

nta

of 8

7 pe

rcen

t.

EWN

101520253035

250

350

450

550

650

750

RASM (cents)

Stag

e le

ngth

(250

-750

)

11

Pass

enge

r Dem

and

Anal

ysis

(PDA

)

12

Air S

ervi

ce

Catc

hmen

t Are

a

•De

fined

by

zip co

de.

•Ge

ogra

phic

are

a w

here

EW

N

can

reas

onab

ly e

xpec

t to

draw

pas

seng

er tr

affic

.•

Air s

ervi

ce c

atch

men

t are

a po

pula

tion

of 2

54,4

83 in

39

zip co

des.

•Th

ree

dive

rtin

g ai

rpor

ts, O

AJ,

ILM

and

PGV,

are

with

in a

dr

ive

time

band

of 1

20

min

utes

from

the

New

Ber

n co

mm

unity

.AI

RPO

RT

DR

IVE

TIM

ED

RIV

E M

ILES

Jack

sonv

ille, N

C1

hr, 0

min

s51

Gre

envi

lle, N

C1

hr, 5

min

s49

Wilm

ingt

on, N

C1

hr, 5

3 m

ins

91R

alei

gh/D

urha

m, N

C2

hrs,

4 m

ins

128

Nor

folk

, VA

2 hr

s, 5

6 m

in16

8

13

•EW

N tr

ue m

arke

t is e

stim

ated

at 4

22,4

48

annu

al o

rigin

and

des

tinat

ion

pass

enge

rs.

•Do

mes

tic tr

avel

ers

acco

unte

d fo

r 385

,254

of

the

tota

l tru

e m

arke

t (91

per

cent

). •

51%

per

cent

of c

atch

men

t are

a tr

avel

ers

use

EWN

for t

heir

trip

s.•

38 p

erce

nt d

iver

ted

to R

DU, 7

per

cent

di

vert

ed to

OAJ

and

4 p

erce

nt d

iver

ted

to

othe

r airp

orts

whi

ch in

clud

ed

Wilm

ingt

on, N

C, G

reen

ville

, NC,

and

N

orfo

lk, V

A.

TRU

E M

ARKE

T –

AIRP

ORT

USE

RAN

KO

RIG

INAT

ING

AI

RPO

RT

AIR

POR

T U

SEPA

X%

Dom

estic

1EW

N20

4,80

153

2R

DU

136,

612

363

OA

J27

,201

74

Oth

er16

,641

4Su

btot

al38

5,25

410

0In

tern

atio

nal

1R

DU

23,0

7362

2EW

N11

,271

303

OA

J1,

769

54

Oth

er1,

080

3Su

btot

al37

,194

100

Dom

estic

and

Inte

rnat

iona

l1

EWN

216,

072

512

RD

U15

9,68

538

3O

AJ

28,9

707

4O

ther

17,7

214

Tota

l42

2,44

810

0

EWN

51%

RD

U38

%

OA

J7%

Oth

er4%

14

True

Mar

ket b

y Co

mm

unity

•Co

mm

uniti

es o

f New

Ber

n, H

avel

ock,

Ar

apah

oe a

nd P

ollo

cksv

ille

gene

rate

d th

e hi

ghes

t ret

entio

n at

EW

N (g

reat

er

than

70

perc

ent)

. •

New

Ber

n an

d Ha

velo

ck c

omm

uniti

es

gene

rate

d th

e fir

st a

nd th

ird la

rges

t sh

are

of p

asse

nger

s.•

Kins

ton

area

gen

erat

ed th

e se

cond

la

rges

t sha

re o

f pas

seng

ers;

how

ever

, it’

s rel

ativ

e pr

oxim

ity to

RDU

cau

sed

it’s r

eten

tion

at E

WN

to b

e on

e of

the

low

est a

mon

g th

e to

p 15

.

CO

MM

UN

ITY

AIR

POR

T U

SE %

TRU

E M

ARK

ET

ESTI

MAT

EEW

NR

DU

OAJ

OTH

ERN

ew B

ern

7224

13

144,

120

Kin

ston

2960

65

48,0

23H

avel

ock

7323

22

43,8

01E

mer

ald

Isle

2436

346

37,6

85M

oreh

ead

City

6031

63

35,7

79N

ewpo

rt60

2312

429

,483

Bea

ufor

t51

3413

221

,292

Atla

ntic

Bea

ch60

248

89,

051

Cho

cow

inity

662

031

8,04

8O

rient

al69

271

36,

442

Ara

paho

e85

150

04,

682

Grif

ton

1960

022

4,67

4M

aysv

ille34

2042

53,

697

Vanc

ebor

o48

410

113,

274

Pol

lock

sville

7315

75

2,92

7A

ll O

ther

6033

53

19,4

70To

tal

5138

74

422,

448

15

True

Mar

ket –

Top

25 D

estin

atio

ns

•53

per

cent

of t

rave

lers

, or

222,

881

pass

enge

rs, w

ere

dest

ined

to o

r fro

m o

ne o

f th

e to

p 25

mar

kets

. •

Orla

ndo-

Inte

rnat

iona

l, At

lant

a, B

osto

n, C

hica

go-

O’H

are

and

New

Yor

k-La

Gua

rdia

wer

e th

e to

p fiv

e do

mes

tic m

arke

ts.

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rland

o, N

ew Y

ork-

LaG

uard

ia,

Fort

Lau

derd

ale

and

New

Yo

rk-K

enne

dy h

ad th

e lo

wes

t re

tent

ions

(bel

ow

40 p

erce

nt).

RAN

KD

ESTI

NAT

ION

EWN

O

&D

PAX

DIV

ERTE

D

PAX

RET

ENTI

ON

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UE

MAR

KET

PDEW

1O

rland

o, F

L (M

CO

)4,

731

12,4

1428

17,1

4523

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Atla

nta,

GA

11,5

255,

482

6817

,006

23.3

3B

osto

n, M

A5,

661

8,35

440

14,0

1519

.24

Chi

cago

, IL

(OR

D)

5,85

27,

714

4313

,566

18.6

5N

ew Y

ork,

NY

(LG

A)

4,17

99,

218

3113

,396

18.4

6Lo

s A

ngel

es, C

A5,

105

6,74

643

11,8

5116

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Fort

Laud

erda

le, F

L4,

215

6,85

938

11,0

7415

.28

San

Die

go, C

A5,

439

4,62

754

10,0

6613

.89

Den

ver,

CO

4,93

44,

852

509,

785

13.4

10D

alla

s, T

X (D

FW)

6,27

03,

367

659,

637

13.2

11Ta

mpa

, FL

4,26

33,

543

557,

806

10.7

12N

ewar

k, N

J4,

366

3,43

356

7,79

910

.713

Las

Vega

s, N

V3,

762

3,62

351

7,38

510

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Cha

rlotte

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glas

, NC

5,82

01,

488

807,

309

10.0

15P

hoen

ix, A

Z (P

HX)

3,72

62,

887

566,

613

9.1

16M

iam

i, FL

2,70

73,

905

416,

612

9.1

17S

t. Lo

uis,

MO

3,10

83,

496

476,

603

9.0

18S

eattl

e, W

A3,

366

2,73

455

6,10

08.

419

San

Fra

ncis

co, C

A3,

248

2,74

054

5,98

88.

220

Det

roit,

MI

3,99

21,

816

695,

808

8.0

21H

oust

on, T

X (IA

H)

4,03

91,

710

705,

750

7.9

22N

ew Y

ork,

NY

(JFK

)1,

694

4,03

230

5,72

67.

823

Min

neap

olis

, MN

3,46

62,

033

635,

499

7.5

24P

hila

delp

hia,

PA

3,00

52,

357

565,

362

7.3

25N

ashv

ille, T

N3,

157

1,82

463

4,98

16.

8To

p 25

des

tinat

ions

111,

628

111,

252

5022

2,88

130

5.3

Tota

l dom

estic

204,

801

180,

453

5338

5,25

452

7.7

16

True

Mar

ket –

Airli

nes U

sed

•M

arke

t sha

re o

f airl

ines

serv

ing

the

EWN

cat

chm

ent a

rea

dive

rtin

gpa

ssen

gers

rega

rdle

ss o

f whi

ch

airp

ort w

as u

sed.

•

Amer

ican

had

the

high

est s

hare

with

36

per

cent

, fol

low

ed b

y De

lta w

ith

27 p

erce

nt, S

outh

wes

t with

19

perc

ent,

Uni

ted

with

12

perc

ent a

nd

JetB

lue

with

2 p

erce

nt.

•Al

l oth

er c

arrie

rs in

clud

ing

Air

Cana

da a

nd A

lask

a Ai

rline

s car

ried

4 pe

rcen

t of t

raffi

c.

Am

eric

an36

%

Del

ta27

%

Sou

thw

est

19%

Uni

ted

12%

Jetb

lue

2%O

THE

R4%

17

True

Mar

ket –

Airli

nes U

sed

at E

WN

•Am

eric

an A

irlin

es ca

rrie

d th

e la

rges

t sha

re fr

om E

WN

with

75

perc

ent o

f all

dom

estic

pa

ssen

gers

. •

Delta

Air

Line

s car

ried

the

seco

nd

larg

est s

hare

from

EW

N w

ith 2

5 pe

rcen

t of a

ll do

mes

tic

pass

enge

rs.

•O

ther

airl

ines

carr

ied

less

than

1

perc

ent o

f pas

seng

ers t

hrou

gh

code

shar

e re

latio

nshi

ps o

r in

terli

ne co

nnec

tions

.

RAN

KD

ESTI

NAT

ION

AIR

LIN

E %

TOTA

L PA

XA

AD

LO

THER

1A

tlant

a, G

A25

750

11,5

252

Dal

las,

TX

(DFW

)86

140

6,27

03

Chi

cago

, IL

(OR

D)

8316

15,

852

4C

harlo

tte-D

ougl

as, N

C10

00

05,

820

5B

osto

n, M

A91

90

5,66

16

San

Die

go, C

A80

190

5,43

97

Los

Ang

eles

, CA

8315

15,

105

8D

enve

r, C

O76

230

4,93

49

Orla

ndo,

FL

(MC

O)

8020

04,

731

10N

ewar

k, N

J10

00

04,

366

11Ta

mpa

, FL

7921

04,

263

12Fo

rt La

uder

dale

, FL

7525

04,

215

13N

ew Y

ork,

NY

(LG

A)

100

00

4,17

914

Hou

ston

, TX

(IAH

)91

80

4,03

915

Det

roit,

MI

7624

03,

992

16La

s Ve

gas,

NV

8515

03,

762

17P

hoen

ix, A

Z (P

HX)

8812

03,

726

18N

ew O

rlean

s, L

A74

260

3,48

319

Min

neap

olis

, MN

6535

03,

466

20S

eattl

e, W

A72

271

3,36

621

San

Fra

ncis

co, C

A79

211

3,24

822

Nas

hville

, TN

7822

03,

157

23S

t. Lo

uis,

MO

7821

13,

108

24P

hila

delp

hia,

PA

100

00

3,00

525

Mia

mi,

FL81

190

2,70

7To

tal t

op 2

578

220

113,

417

Tota

l all

dom

estic

mar

kets

7525

020

4,80

1

18

True

Mar

ket –

Airf

ares

•Av

erag

e ai

rfare

s are

a re

sult

of m

any

fact

ors i

nclu

ding

: len

gth

of h

aul,

avai

labi

lity

of se

ats,

bus

ines

s ver

sus

leisu

re fa

res a

nd a

irlin

e co

mpe

titio

n.•

Aver

age

fare

for t

he y

ear e

nded

June

30

, 201

6, a

t EW

N w

as $

212,

$42

hi

gher

than

RDU

and

$7

low

er th

an

OAJ

. •

The

cons

isten

t far

e di

spar

ity in

the

maj

ority

of t

op m

arke

ts b

etw

een

EWN

and

RDU

is li

kely

the

larg

est

singl

e co

ntrib

utin

g fa

ctor

to d

iver

sion

from

the

EWN

cat

chm

ent a

rea.

RAN

KD

ESTI

NAT

ION

AVER

AGE

ON

E-W

AY F

ARE

EWN

M

AX

DIF

F.EW

NR

DU

OAJ

1O

rland

o, F

L (M

CO

)$1

65$1

25$1

71$4

1 2

Atla

nta,

GA

$151

$152

$157

($1)

3B

osto

n, M

A$1

76$1

36$1

74$3

9 4

Chi

cago

, IL

(OR

D)

$174

$137

$157

$37

5N

ew Y

ork,

NY

(LG

A)

$191

$138

$185

$53

6Lo

s A

ngel

es, C

A$2

85$2

28$2

63$5

7 7

Fort

Laud

erda

le, F

L$1

31$1

11$1

43$1

9 8

San

Die

go, C

A$2

92$2

24$2

86$6

9 9

Den

ver,

CO

$203

$165

$206

$38

10D

alla

s, T

X (D

FW)

$210

$209

$198

$12

11Ta

mpa

, FL

$171

$140

$174

$31

12N

ewar

k, N

J$1

76$1

49$1

63$2

7 13

Las

Vega

s, N

V$2

41$2

01$2

28$4

0 14

Cha

rlotte

-Dou

glas

, NC

$154

$120

$166

$34

15P

hoen

ix, A

Z (P

HX)

$207

$193

$207

$14

16M

iam

i, FL

$172

$123

$144

$49

17S

t. Lo

uis,

MO

$179

$160

$208

$20

18S

eattl

e, W

A$2

68$2

12$2

95$5

7 19

San

Fra

ncis

co, C

A$2

75$2

65$2

63$1

2 20

Det

roit,

MI

$175

$204

$185

($10

)21

Hou

ston

, TX

(IAH

)$2

10$2

04$1

83$2

6 22

New

Yor

k, N

Y (J

FK)

$183

$131

$194

$52

23M

inne

apol

is, M

N$1

89$2

11$1

90($

1)24

Phi

lade

lphi

a, P

A$2

35$1

69$2

04$6

6 25

Nas

hville

, TN

$164

$144

$170

$20

Aver

age

dom

estic

fare

$212

$170

$219

$42

19

•U

nite

d, a

trad

ition

al n

etw

ork

carr

ier,

and

Alle

gian

t offe

r the

onl

y si

gnifi

cant

po

tent

ial f

or n

ew e

ntra

nt c

arrie

rs in

to

the

mar

ket.

•Ho

wev

er, t

o m

ake

Uni

ted

a so

lid

oppo

rtun

ity, E

WN

will

nee

d to

con

tinue

to

grow

the

mar

ket.

•Ch

icag

o-O

’Har

e an

d W

ashi

ngto

n-Du

lles,

th

e m

ost l

ikel

y hu

b op

port

uniti

es.

•Al

legi

ant’s

big

gest

chal

leng

e is

over

com

ing

a re

cent

shift

in th

e ai

rline

’s st

rate

gy to

focu

s on

larg

er p

oint

-to-

poin

t m

arke

ts.

•O

rland

o-Sa

nfor

d w

ould

be

likel

y be

the

top

new

mar

ket o

ppor

tuni

ty fo

r Alle

gian

t.

Whi

le th

e co

nsol

idat

ion

of th

e ai

rline

indu

stry

in

the

past

dec

ade

has l

eft j

ust t

hree

tr

aditi

onal

lega

cy ca

rrie

rs, t

here

are

co

ntin

ued

grow

th o

ppor

tuni

ties

amon

g th

ese

carr

iers

in a

dditi

on to

new

op

port

uniti

es a

t EW

N.

EWN

will

nee

d to

wor

k cl

osel

y w

ith A

mer

ican

an

d De

lta in

ord

er to

tran

sitio

n to

larg

er

airc

raft

whi

le tr

ying

to k

eep

the

freq

uenc

y as

hig

h as

pos

sibl

ein

ord

er to

offe

r the

bes

t co

nnec

ting

oppo

rtun

ities

for a

rea

trav

eler

s.

A 5%

poi

nt im

prov

emen

t in

rete

ntio

n at

EW

N w

illre

sult

in o

ver 2

0K a

dditi

onal

pa

ssen

gers

usin

g th

e ai

rpor

t per

yea

r.

New

and

Exi

stin

g O

ppor

tuni

ties

SITU

ATIO

NAL

AN

ALYS

IS

20

Avia

tion

Activ

ity F

orec

asts

21

Fore

cast

Bac

kgro

und

and

Data

Gat

herin

gRe

sour

ces

Cons

ulte

d•

Loca

l Res

ourc

es•

Stat

e an

d N

atio

nal R

esou

rces

•FA

A Te

rmin

al A

rea

Fore

cast

(TAF

)•

FAA

Aero

spac

e Fo

reca

st•

FAA

Traf

fic F

low

Man

agem

ent S

yste

m

Coun

ts D

ata

(TFM

SC)

•U.

S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

port

atio

n (U

SDOT

) T-1

00 D

atab

ase

•Ai

rline

Tic

ket D

ata

•So

cioe

cono

mic

Dat

a•

Stak

ehol

der I

nter

view

s•

U.S.

Dep

artm

ent o

f Def

ense

(DoD

)•

U.S.

Gen

eral

Ser

vice

s Ad

min

istra

tion

(GSA

)

Scop

e of

For

ecas

ts•

20 Y

ear O

utlo

ok, b

ase

year

FY2

016

(Oct

ober

–Se

ptem

ber)

•M

ust b

e fo

rmal

ly a

ppro

ved

by th

e FA

A•

Com

pare

d ag

ains

t TAF

•Co

nsid

ered

Enp

lane

men

ts, C

argo

, O

pera

tions

, and

Bas

ed A

ircra

ft

Resu

lts o

f Dat

a Co

llect

ion

Driv

ers o

f Dem

and

•Ex

istin

g st

able

indu

strie

s and

mili

tary

•Gr

owin

g in

dust

ries

Risk

s to,

and

opp

ortu

nitie

s for

, For

ecas

ts•

Airli

ne

•M

ilita

ry•

Stag

natio

n of

loca

l gro

und

and/

or la

bor

mar

ket

AVIA

TIO

N A

CTIV

ITY

FORE

CAST

S

22

Pass

enge

r En

plan

emen

t Fo

reca

sts

•Pe

rform

ed b

ette

r tha

n st

ate

until

201

5.•

Perfo

rmed

bet

ter t

han

natio

nal a

vera

ge

thro

ugho

ut.

•Re

cent

dec

line

due

to

airli

ne sc

hedu

ling

limiti

ng

avai

labl

e se

ats.

23

Pass

enge

r En

plan

emen

t Fo

reca

sts

•Ai

rline

s will

tran

sitio

n to

la

rger

airc

raft

.•

Loca

l mar

ket t

rave

ls en

ough

to fi

ll ai

rcra

ft;

how

ever

sch

edul

es w

ill

influ

ence

util

izatio

n.•

Air s

ervi

ce w

ill g

row

with

lo

cal e

cono

my

–st

eadi

ly

over

tim

e.•

Hybr

id fo

reca

st is

pr

efer

red.

24

Enpl

anem

entG

row

thEn

plan

emen

t Dec

line/

No

Gro

wth

Now/Certain

•Im

prov

ing

loca

l eco

nom

y

•Po

pula

tion

grow

th

•A

ttrac

tion

of n

ew b

usin

esse

s to

New

Ber

n an

d

Hav

eloc

k

•A

rea

popu

lar w

ith re

tiree

s fro

m N

orth

east

•R

esur

genc

e of

Hat

tera

s Ya

chts

’ bus

ines

s

•Pr

opor

tiona

lly la

rge

(10%

inst

ead

of 2

-3%

)

popu

latio

n of

Am

eric

an a

nd D

elta

freq

uent

flye

rs

•M

ilita

ry c

ontr

acts

with

airl

ines

for t

icke

t pur

chas

e

•En

plan

emen

t dec

line

in re

cent

yea

rs d

ue

to re

duce

d fre

quen

cies

/cap

acity

•C

ompe

ting

Airp

orts

(RD

U)

•Li

mite

d fli

ght s

ched

ules

•Li

mite

d no

n-st

op s

ervi

ce

•O

utsi

de o

f New

Ber

n an

d H

avel

ock,

MSA

is v

ery

rura

l and

spa

rsel

y po

pula

ted

Future/Uncertain

•F-

35 P

rogr

am a

t MC

AS

Che

rry

Poin

t

•A

ttrac

tion

of s

uppo

rt b

usin

esse

s fo

r F-3

5

prog

ram

•Im

prov

emen

ts to

New

Ber

n C

onve

ntio

n C

ente

r

•La

rger

airc

raft

allo

win

g m

ore

of tr

ue m

arke

t to

trav

el w

hen

they

wan

t to

•N

ew n

on-s

top

serv

ice

on U

nite

d or

Alle

gian

t

•M

CA

S C

herr

y Po

int i

mpa

cted

by

BR

AC

•Le

ss fr

eque

nt a

irlin

e se

rvic

e

•La

rger

airc

raft

caus

ing

airli

nes

to re

duce

frequ

enci

es

•Lo

ss o

f a c

arrie

r, or

car

rier c

onso

lidat

ion

to a

noth

er a

irpor

t

•H

ighw

ay im

prov

emen

ts m

akin

g tr

avel

to

RD

U e

asie

r

25

Com

mer

cial

O

pera

tions

•Ai

rline

s will

use

larg

er

airc

raft

, cha

ngin

g op

erat

ions

cla

ssifi

catio

n.•

Futu

re a

ircra

ft:

•Em

brae

r 190

/195

•Bo

mba

rdie

r CR

J700

/900

•Pa

rt 1

35 (o

n de

man

d) a

ir ta

xi w

ill g

row

with

ec

onom

y.

Sche

dule

d Co

mm

erci

al O

pera

tions

Year

A

ir C

arrie

r A

ir Ta

xi

20

16

192

6,27

4

20

21

4,00

0 3,

600

2026

5,

500

2,20

0

2031

6,

300

1,90

0

20

36

7,00

0 2,

200

CAG

R

19.0

%

-7.2

%

Com

pone

nts

of A

ir Ta

xi T

otal

Ye

ar

Pass

enge

r C

argo

Pa

rt 1

35

20

16

5,15

3 91

4 22

0

2021

2,

000

1,00

0 60

0

2026

4

00

1,00

0 80

0

2031

0

1,00

0 90

0

2036

0

1,00

0 1,

200

C

AGR

-1

00%

0.

5%

8.9%

26

Itine

rant

Gen

eral

Av

iatio

n O

pera

tions

Fo

reca

st•

High

vol

atili

ty o

ver p

ast

ten

year

s –st

rong

link

s to

over

all e

cono

my.

•Ha

ve p

erfo

rmed

in li

ne

with

nat

iona

l tre

nds,

but

EW

Nha

s see

n an

upw

ard

spik

e in

last

two

year

s.•

Hybr

id a

ppro

ach

mer

ges

natio

nal t

rend

s with

nea

r te

rm ju

mp.

•

Hybr

id a

ppro

ach

pref

erre

d.

27

Loca

l Gen

eral

Av

iatio

n O

pera

tions

Fo

reca

st•

Loca

l ope

ratio

ns d

riven

by

flig

ht tr

aini

ng (u

p to

75

per

cent

of

oper

atio

ns).

•M

any

stud

ents

usin

g G

.I.

Bill

to fu

nd fl

ight

trai

ning

. •

Sust

aine

d pr

esen

ce o

r gr

owth

of C

herr

y Po

int

will

pos

itive

ly im

pact

lo

cal o

pera

tions

.•

Loca

l gro

wth

rate

is

pref

erre

d.

28

Base

d Ai

rcra

ft

Fore

cast

s

•Ai

rpor

t has

a w

aitin

g lis

t fo

r han

gars

.•

Sing

le-e

ngin

e pi

ston

is

mos

t com

mon

type

, and

no

t a g

row

ing

segm

ent a

t EW

Nor

nat

ionw

ide.

•Li

ght s

port

and

ex

perim

enta

l (ki

t) a

ircra

ft

are

grow

ing,

as a

re je

ts,

turb

o pr

ops,

and

he

licop

ters

. •

Loca

l gro

wth

rate

is

pref

erre

d fo

reca

st.

Year

SE

P Je

t M

EP

Hel

icop

ter

Exp.

To

tal

2016

72

3

3 2

3 83

20

21

68

5 3

3 5

84

2026

67

6

3 3

6 85

20

31

65

9 3

5 6

88

2036

65

11

3

7 8

94

CAG

R

-0.5

%

6.7%

0.

0%

6.5%

5.

0%

0.6%

29

Avia

tion

Activ

ity F

orec

asts

Sum

mar

y

•Gr

owth

in o

pera

tions

and

bas

ed a

ircra

ft e

xpec

ted

for n

ext

20 y

ears

.•

Slow

, sus

tain

ed g

row

th o

ver f

irst t

en y

ears

. Hig

her

grow

th in

seco

nd te

n ye

ars.

•Dr

iven

by

stre

ngth

enin

g lo

cal e

cono

my.

•M

etro

polit

an S

tatis

tical

Are

a ha

s dem

onst

rate

d m

arke

t to

supp

ort l

arge

r air

carr

ier a

ircra

ft.

•Ch

alle

nge

is to

fill

larg

er a

ircra

ft w

ithou

t red

uctio

n of

flig

ht

freq

uenc

y.

30

Com

mer

cial

Pas

seng

er Te

rmin

al -

TWG

31

•Ch

eck-

in /

Tick

etin

g•

Chec

ked

Bagg

age

Scre

enin

g•

Bagg

age

Mak

eup

Out

boun

d•

Secu

rity

Scre

enin

g•

Hold

room

s•

Bagg

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9 ($

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Term

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Term

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34

Criti

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35

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171

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VI

214

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66 to

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36

AIRCRAFT APPROACH CATEGORY (AAC)

AIRPLANE DESIGN GROUP(ADG)

CATEGORY

APPROACH SPEED (KNOTS)

GROUP #

WINGSPAN (ft.)

TAIL HEIGHT

(ft.)

A

Criti

cal A

ircra

ft

•Co

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pan

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a “

Fam

ily”

of a

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ft

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III fo

r Run

way

4/2

2

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14/

32

37

Airp

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38

Airf

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Cha

ract

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ondi

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RU

NW

AY

DA

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WA

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4/22

RU

NW

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0’15

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tion

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ace

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tmen

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one

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47,0

00 lb

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Dua

l Whe

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lbs.

45,0

00 lb

s.Ed

ge L

ight

Inte

nsity

Hig

h (H

IRL)

Med

ium

(M

IRL)

Visu

al G

lide

Slop

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dica

tor

PAPI

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/ PA

PI-4

LPA

PI-2

L / P

API

-2L

Run

way

End

Iden

tifie

r Li

ghts

(R

EIL)

Yes

/ Yes

Yes

/ Yes

App

roac

h Li

ghts

Non

e / N

one

Non

e / N

one

Gro

ss W

eigh

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39

Exis

ting

Airf

ield

Pav

emen

t Con

ditio

n

40

On-

Airp

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and

Use

41

Gen

eral

Avi

atio

n Fa

cilit

ies

•50

T-H

anga

r Uni

ts•

91,8

00 s

f (19

han

gars

) Co

nven

tiona

l Han

gar

Stor

age

•Fi

xed

Base

Ope

rato

r (F

BO) -

Tide

wat

er A

ir Se

rvic

es

•5,

200

sf Te

rmin

al•

Airc

raft

fuel

ing

•Ai

rcra

ft S

tora

ge•

Flig

ht P

lann

ing

•Re

ntal

Car

42

Airp

ort S

uppo

rt

Faci

litie

s

•Fu

elin

g Fa

cilit

ies

•O

ne 2

0,00

0-ga

llon

Jet A

tank

•O

ne 1

2,00

0-ga

llon

AvGa

s(10

0LL)

tank

•FA

A Co

ntra

ct A

ir Tr

affic

Con

trol

Tow

er (A

TCT)

•O

ne A

ircra

ft R

escu

e an

d Fi

refig

htin

g (A

RFF)

ve

hicl

e w

ith w

ater

and

dry

che

mic

al ca

pabi

litie

s•

Dedi

cate

d AR

FF S

tora

ge F

acili

ty

43

Fina

l Pt.

1 R

epor

tD

ocum

ents

•P

ublic

Out

reac

h (T

hrou

ghou

t Pro

cess

)•

Sta

keho

lder

Wor

king

Gro

up (S

WG

)

On-

Goi

ng T

ask

Dra

ftR

epor

t D

ocum

ents

(Pt.

1)

Air

Ser

vice

S

tudy

Dem

and

Fore

cast

sFa

cilit

y R

equi

rem

ents

A

ltern

ativ

esA

naly

sis

Goa

ls &

Stu

dy D

esig

n

Exi

stin

gC

ondi

tions

Nex

t Tas

kC

urre

nt T

ask

Com

plet

ed T

ask

Futu

re T

ask

Pav

emen

tA

naly

sis

Term

inal

Ana

lysi

s

Supp

ortin

g St

udie

s/An

alys

is

AMPU

Pro

cess

44