coastal risk assessment studies: the problem of the scales through 3 examples borja g. reguero...
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Coastal Risk Assessment studies:
The problem of the scales through 3 examples
Borja G. Reguero [email protected] / [email protected]
National / International e.g., LAC
Spatial scales in the coastal areas:
0.50º ~ 50 Km = Global (Low Resolution, LR)0.05º ~ 5 Km = Regional (Medium Resolution, MR)10 m – 100 m = Local (High Resolution, HR)
MR
LR
LR HR
Local sitee.g., city
Country / regione.g. Gulf Coast, US
3 scales
Data + detail/resolution of processes
Case 1. The Macro Scale: e.g., Latin America and the Caribbean
Case 2. The Micro Scale: e.g., The city of Santander (SP)
Case 3. The Meso Scale: e.g., Gulf Coast
Case 1. The Macro Scale: e.g., Latin America and the Caribbean
Case 2. The Micro Scale: e.g., The city of Santander (SP)
Case 3. The Meso Scale: e.g., Gulf Coast
“ Identifying priorities“(process-integrated approach)
Hazard value
Vulnerability
Exposure
( )zf z
Risk (R) is defined as “the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from a given hazard to a given element at danger or peril,
over a specified time period”
European Commission terminology (Schneiderbauer and Ehrlich, 2004)
(Natural Disasters)
Regional study on the effects of Climate Change in the coast of Latin America and the Caribbean
f Z(z) Pi=Prob(zi-1<Z<zi)
zzi-1z0 z1 zi zn-1 zn... ...
EiVi
E(z)
V(z)
Regional study on the effects of Climate Change in the coast of Latin America and the Caribbean
Hazards
(Dynamics &
Impacts)
• Waves• Storm surge• Sea Level Rise• Sea Surface Temperature• Surface Air Temperature• Salinity•…
Exposure & Vulnerability
• Distribution of population• Land uses and surface affected• Coastal typology (beach characteristics, coastal defense, port facilities, city sea border)• Ecosystems clasification • Ecological vulnerability indices• Infrastructures (Roads & Railways)• …
Risk
• Coastal flooding• Beach erosion (Tourism and coastal protection) • Port (operability and reliability)• Coral Bleaching• …
• Coastal Flooding• Beach Erosion• Port activity and reliability• Coral Bleaching• Sediment potential transport• Eolic potential transport
Dynamics Impacts
Example of Risk integration 2: Reliability of Defensive Breakwaters
Type of sea-port as a function of its socio-economic relevance
Hazard Exposure Vulnerability
Length to repair
Change in design probability level
Case 1. The Macro Scale: e.g., Latin America and the Caribbean
Case 2. The Micro Scale: e.g., The city of Santander (SP)
Case 3. The Meso Scale: e.g., Gulf Coast
“ Going to the detail “(process based approach)
DSS-Santander follows the SPRC methodology (Source, Pathway, Receptor, Consequences)
R
f(R)• change vulnerability• change hazard
Case 1. The Macro Scale: e.g., Latin America and the Caribbean
Case 2. The Micro Scale: e.g., The city of Santander (SP)
Case 3. The Meso Scale: e.g., Gulf Coast
CLIMADAHazard Sets Scenarios
W Precip.SSHs
Atmospheric hazardsCoastal hazards
pFH
pFH inshore
Wave attenuation model (InVest Coastal Protection tool)
Coastal profile
pFH
pFH insh.
Ecosystems
protective services
Cost/Benefit of adaptation measures
NOTES:
First order of complexity (1D) Statistical simulation Additional advances:
SWAN-Veg Adcirc VOF-RANS runs
Damages, Events Losses SetsImpacts on assets
Storm generation
1. Databases
1. Hazard data (hurricanes and LT trends)2. Bathymetry & topography3. Types of ecosystems, coastal defenses and coastal
profiles 4. Socio-economic Vulnerability data (population,
coastal assets, etc.)
www.coastalresilience.orgwww.unisys.com www.nooa.com ….
1. Databases
2. Generation of Hazard sets (Wind, precip., SS, Waves)
1. Databases
2. Generation of Hazard sets (Wind, precip., SS, Waves)
3. Coastal features and possible adaptation options (role of green/gray infrastructure)
1. Databases
2. Generation of Hazard sets (Wind, precip., SS, Waves)
3. Coastal features and possible measures (role of green/gray infrastructure)
4. Evaluation of potential damages and overall risk
e.g. USGS, CVIComparison of each scenario:
1. Current situation2. Economic growth scenario3. Scenarios with future changes in (i)
hazards, (ii) ecosystems and/or (iii) measures adopted
Summary
Each scale presents different features (i.e. data) and requires
different tools
Processes-integrated vs Processes-resolving tools
Overall, a similar approach = Risk Framework
By comparison of scenarios (risk together with the other terms):
identify where and (possibly) what “solutions” to study
further
Thank you
I.J. Losada F.J. Méndez
Borja G. Reguero [email protected]
Sources of pictures in the presentation: TNC, NOAA, USACE, USGS, Swiss Re, online press
Acknowledgements: ECLAC, OECC-SP Gob., NOAA, TNC, NatCap
M. BeckC. Sheppard
Example of risk integration 1: Erosion Risk (Sandy Beaches)
Beaches as a resource Urban beaches as a natural protection
2 functions:
Coastal Urban areas protection Resource (Tourism)
00
h
h
h
t
t t
t
R
R R
R a
Present
Pathway
Risk
Source
Receptor
Ecological
Socioeconomical
otR
( , ), ( , )ECON ECOLV z t V z t0( , )Zf z t
Hazard
Vulnerability
0 2010t Scenario 2025,2055,2085ht
Pathway
Source
Receptor
( , )Z hf z t
Hazard
RiskhtR
Do nothing0
0h
h
h
t
t t
t
R
R R
R a
Mitigationoption
0t t ht t
R
f(R)
• change vulnerability• change hazard
V(z)
f(z)
Risk Assessment in a changing climate
( ) ( ) ( ) ,ZR f z E z V z dz
SourcesPathways
Receptors & Consequences
INPUTS OUTPUTSFUNCTION
hs, tp, wave_dir, eta_ast, eta_met - offshore_to_coast - hs, tp, wave_dir, eta,depth, vel_x, vel_yhs, tp, wave_dir, eta_ast, eta_met, bathy_dir,… - beach- xb, hs, q_long, v_long, dean_par,depthhs, tp,wave_dir, eta, bathy_dir, h_ini, h_end - shoal- hs, wave_dirhs, eta, hc, length - sea_wall- q
FLOODING MODELdepth, population, patrimonial_value - inland_consequences- loss_life, edrvel_x, vel_y, habitat_id - outland_consequences- evi