coastal risk client adaptation story - 5g responder lab · 2019-03-06 · fema100-year flood plain....
TRANSCRIPT
Coastal RiskAdding Value to Flood/Nat Haz/Climate Impact
Risk Management
What Are The Issues?Individuals, Businesses and Governments:– need a better understanding of flood, natural hazard and climate
impact risks at the property level;– need a more visual tool to help them make better risk mitigation
investments and pre-disaster plans;– need to dimension financial risks to investments/facilities, if no
mitigation steps are taken;– need guidance on which risk mitigation investments will be cost-
effective.
FM Global’s View: “Master the Disaster” – January 2019
“The surprising severity of [Hurricane Harvey, Irma and Maria] losses suggests that many CFOs should be allocating more capital to reduce the financial impact of natural disasters, or risk facing volatile balance sheets and other potential consequences of their inaction.”
“The onus is on companies to methodically identify and assess natural disaster risks to commit the necessary capital to improve structural resilience. In this regard, the CFO is accountable.”
[https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/risk-management/fm-global-delves-into-catastrophe-preparedness-121935.aspx]
Portfolio Risk Screening
Flood/Nat Haz Risk Assessment
Property-level
Damage/Loss Calculations
Risk MitigationCost Estimation
RecommendSolutions
Coastal Risk’s “Master the Disaster” Process
Portfolio-Level Risk Scoring
Property-Level Risk Reports – NOAA is a Customer
Damage-Loss Calculations – Property LevelFigure 1. Example Flood Damage Function for Coverage A and Coverage C
The replacement values in Table 1 were extracted from the SubjectProperty’s documentation to be used for the estimation of the flood averageeconomic losses for this analysis. Note that the value for the businessinterruption, i.e. Coverage D, is given as a value per day, since the income-related losses are time-dependent.
Economic losses obtained for the building and contents damage werecalculated based on a suite of damage functions selected from HAZUS andUSACE’s damage functions. The damage functions were selected based onengineering judgment with the objective to characterize as well as possibleSubject Property’s technical properties. For example, in addition to theproperties stated previously, the selection of the damage functions assumedthe coastal beach-front location of the property, according to the FederalInsurance Administration (FIA), the compliance of the building with the post-FIRM (Flood Insurance Rate Map) distribution, etc. Note that all the losses arecalculated with respect to the top of the elevation of the first finished floor,which was assumed to be 6 ft., with respect to the NAVD88 coordinatesystem.
Barriereliminatestidal flooding
Barrier reducesstorm surge bytwo-feet or more
Risk Mitigation Cost Estimation – Property LevelCost-Benefit Analysis (ROI)
Matching the Risks and the Remedies
Personalized risk mitigation advice for individuals, businesses and governments
Custom Engineered Flood Defenses
Home in Sea Island, GA Retractable Flood Barriers
FEMA Flood Maps Aren’t Good Enough
• http://insurancethoughtleadership.com/fema-flood-maps-arent-good-enough/
• FEMA Flood Maps aren’t good enough for client protection and risk management;
• No heavy rainfall model;• Storm surge flood heights lower
than NOAA SLOSH model;• No tidal flood/sea level rise model;• Riverine model not accurate enough.
Heavy Rainfall Risk – Not in FEMA Flood Maps
Coastal Risk Heavy Rainfall Model Hurricane Harvey actual flooding, Kingwood, TX
NOAA Storm Surge – Not in FEMA Flood Maps
• 71% of FEMA X-Zone - Houses Gone;• 9% of FEMA X-Zone Houses - Major
Damage• Mexico Beach X-Zone = No FEMA BFE• Mexico Beach A Zone BFE = 8 to 12’• NOAA Storm Surge Cat 3 = 12.8’• NOAA Storm Surge Cat 5 = 20.5’• NHC Probability Cat 1 = 13%• NHC Probability Cat 3 = 5% Western Carolina University , 2018
Mexico Beach X-Zone
Compares NOAA Storm Surge and BFE Risks
Extreme weather-related flooding
FEMA 100-year Flood PlainBase Flood Elevation
(6.44 ft. Elevation NAVD 88)
All other elevations calculated by Coastal Risk models
Indian Creek (80 feet away)
Category 3 High Tide(4.4 ft. Elevation NAVD88)
1 ft. AboveBase Flood Elevation(7.44 ft. Elevation NAVD 88)
Category 1 High Tide(3 ft. Elevation NAVD 88)
Category 4 High Tide(6.6 ft. Elevation NAVD 88)
Category 5 High Tide(8.6 ft. Elevation NAVD 88)
King Tide 2045(2.74 ft. Elevation NAVD 88)
King Tide 2016(1.66 ft. Elevation NAVD 88)
King Tide 2030(2.12 ft. Elevation NAVD 88)
Category 2 High Tide(4 ft. Elevation NAVD88)
King tide / Sea-level rise flooding
“King Tides” – Not in FEMA Flood Maps
•
From Dr. Brian McNoldy, University of Miami; Coastal Risk Science Advisor
The dates of annual extreme tides overlap with the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Compares FEMA Riverine Risk and LiDAR-Based Risk
FEMA Flood Zones and Return Frequency Risk
LiDAR-Based Risk and Return Frequency
Coastal Risk Models Are Accurate
• Coastal Risk scientists are world-class, including a Nobel Prize Winner;
• Coastal Risk’s modeling is continuously peer-reviewed and field-truthed;
• Before Hurricane Irma, Coastal Risk modeled Cat 1 storm surge on Brickell Ave. in Miami at 3.3’. The actual flood depth was 4’.
Coastal Risk Model Actual Flooding
Hurricane Irma, Brickell Ave., Miami, FL
Reports Include 5 Natural Hazards
Five Natural Hazard RiskMeters:
1.WIND2.TORNADOS3.EARTHQUAKES4.WILDFIRES5.TSUNAMIS
States Where Coastal Risk Flood Reports Have Been Sold
20
Coastal Risk Helps Condo HOAs Get Resilient
Developer Builds Sea Level Rise Ready “Dream Home”Using Coastal Risk Modeling
Grey Door Luxury Homeswww.greydoorluxuryhomes.com
"Coastal Risk’s models and succinct, but comprehensive, report provided everything we need. We see this as a valuable and differentiating part of our business model and one that gives our clients added confidence when buying one of our homes on South Florida waterways.“ -- Stanley Young, President, Grey Door Luxury Homes
Broward Palm Beach New Times, January 2016: “Homeowner Spends 1 Million to Prepare for Sea Level Rise.” http://www.browardpalmbeach.com/news/homeowner-in-las-olas-isles-spends-1-million-to-raise-property-to-prepare-for-sea-level-rise-7533531
Coastal Risk Helps Homeowners Get Resilient
“I did research before deciding whether to build a home and how high to elevate it. It was very difficult to get much real information upon which to base my decision. I found that local zoning had no future resiliency built in. Of course, much is unknown and there are no guarantees. But, this report from Coastal Risk helped me make informed decisions, and, I am very grateful for that. Simply taking a guess and adding a few feet of elevation or deciding, without any scientific basis, how many steps to add didn’t seem responsible to me. So thank you for offering this report, it really helped me a great deal!”
Kayle SimonSarasota FL
Coastal Risk Helps Homebuyers with Flood Insurance Issues"I purchased a report from Coastal Risk before even making an offer on a lovely riverfront home in North Carolina. Their comprehensive flood risk report helped me decide that the house was a safe investment for me and my family. Additionally, as result of Coastal Risk's visual evidence, my flood insurance premium was reduced from $2500/year to $770. I am very satisfied with Coastal Risk's products and service and highly recommend them to anyone buying property and dealing with flood insurance issues.“David Friedman, MD, Winton, NC
Commercial Real Estate Customer Uses CRC Online“Due Diligence” to Close $2M Deal
CRE Customer in CaliforniaPre-Purchase Due Diligence for $2M Investment Property in FloridaReport showed little flood risk and sale completed
“I called Coastal Risk Consulting as part of my due diligence for the purchase of a piece of land on the Eastern coast of Florida because I was very concerned about the possibility of flooding. The Coastal Risk Rapid Assessment™ report I received greatly exceeded my expectations. It was very thorough, helpful, and made it easy to move forward in this $2 million sale. I found this company to be very helpful and responsive. I would recommend Coastal Risk to anyone who is buying, insuring, or funding any piece of property!” -Diana Goulet, Commercial Real Estate Buyer
Together We Can Achieve a Resilient Future!
“The civilization that is able to survive is the one that is able to adapt tothe changing physical, social, political, moral and spiritual environment in which it finds itself.” Thomas Friedman, “Thank you for Being Late: An Optimist’s Guide to Thriving in The Age of Accelerations.”
Coastal Risk’s Awards and Recognition
Featured in:
Top-flight Management Team and World-Renowned Advisory Board Members
Advisory Board (partial list):Andy Kao, BE, MBA – Former Dir. Air Worldwide, Consultant in business development for catastrophe risk quantification services;Kaj Ahlmann – Managing Dir., Global Advisory Council Insurance, Deutsche Bank; Owner Six Sigma Ranch;Dr. Peter Williams – Former CTO of IBM “Big Green Innovations” & Smart Cities & Resilience Lead – Energy, Environment & Utilities;Prof. Brian McNoldy – Prof UM – Meteorology; Washington Post “Capitol Weather Gang” Reporter;Dale Sands - worked with CH2M, AECOM and ABB for over 30 years in executive leadership roles. At AECOM, he was Senior VP, in charge of Global Practices for the Environmental Business Line
Senior Management:Albert J. Slap – Nationally-recognized environmental attorney and law professor;Dr. Leonard Berry – Prof. Emeritus, FAU. Extensive worldwide environmental field experience . Lead Author – US Third National Climate Assessment;Dr. Brian Soden – Prof. Climatology, University of Miami (UM). Lead Author, UN IPCC, that won Nobel Prize with VP Al Gore;Rajiv Krishnan – CFO, former International CFO, Citibank & Assurant;Robert Hubbell – VP Marketing – former partner Andersen Worldwide and former partner & global MD of Cantor Fitzgerald.
For Further Information Contact:
Albert J. Slap, President and [email protected]
Rajiv Krishnan, [email protected]
Dr. Leonard Berry, Vice President and [email protected]
COASTAL RISK CONSULTING, LLC(O) 844-SEA-RISE (732-7473)