cognitive bias

• Cognitive Bias

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List of biases in judgment and decision making - Common theoretical causes of some cognitive biases

1 A 2012 Psychological Bulletin article suggested that at least eight seemingly unrelated biases can be produced by the same information-theoretic generative

mechanism that assumes noisy information processing during storage and retrieval of

information in human memory.Martin Hilbert (2012) [http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/2011-

27261-001 Toward a synthesis of cognitive biases: How noisy information processing can

bias human decision making]


Cognitive bias

1 Thus, cognitive biases may sometimes lead to perceptual

distortion, inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, or what is broadly called irrationality.Baron, J


Cognitive bias

1 Other cognitive biases are a “by-product” of human processing

limitations, resulting from a lack of appropriate mental mechanisms

(bounded rationality), or simply from a limited capacity for information

processing.


Cognitive bias

1 Moreover, Kahneman and Tversky (1996) argue cognitive biases have efficient practical implications for areas including clinical judgment.


Cognitive bias - Overview

1 The notion of cognitive biases was introduced by Amos Tversky and

Daniel Kahneman in 1972 and grew out of their experience of people's

Numeracy#Innumeracy|innumeracy, or inability to reason intuitively with

the greater orders of magnitude


Cognitive bias - Overview

1 Alternatively, critics of Kahneman and Tversky such as Gerd Gigerenzer argue that heuristics should not lead us to conceive of human thinking as

riddled with irrational cognitive biases, but rather to conceive

rationality as an adaptive tool that is not identical to the rules of formal

logic or the probability calculus


Cognitive bias - Types

1 Some cognitive biases belong to the subgroup of attentional biases which

refer to the paying of increased attention to certain stimuli. It has been shown, for example, that people addicted to alcohol

and other drugs pay more attention to drug-related stimuli. Common

psychological tests to measure those biases are the Stroop Task and the Dot-

probe paradigm|Dot Probe Task.



1 The following is a list of the more commonly

studied cognitive biases:



1 A 2012 Psychological Bulletin article suggests that at least 8 seemingly unrelated biases can be produced by the same

information-theoretic generative mechanism.Martin Hilbert (2012) [http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/2011-27261-001 Toward a synthesis

of cognitive biases: How noisy information processing can bias human decision making] Psychological Bulletin 138(2), 211–237; free access to the study here: martinhilbert.net/HilbertPsychBull.pdf It is

shown that noisy deviations in the memory-based information processes that convert objective evidence (observations) into subjective estimates (decisions) can produce List of cognitive

biases#Decision-making.2C belief and behavioral biases|regressive conservatism, the Conservatism (belief revision)|belief revision

(Bayesian conservatism), illusory correlations, iIllusory superiority (better-than-average effect) and worse-than-average effect,

subadditivity effect, List of cognitive biases#Decision-making.2C belief and behavioral biases|exaggerated expectation,

overconfidence, and the hard–easy effect.


Cognitive bias - Practical significance

1 Cognitive biases are also related to the persistence of superstition, to

large social issues such as prejudice, and they also work as a hindrance in

the acceptance of scientific non-intuitive knowledge by the public.


Cognitive bias - Reducing cognitive bias

1 Moreover, cognitive biases can be

controlled


Cognitive bias - Reducing cognitive bias

1 Although Cognitive Bias Modification can refer to modifying cognitive processes in healthy individuals,

CBMT is a growing area of evidence-based psychological therapy, in which cognitive processes are

modified to relieve sufferingMacLeod, C., Mathews, A., Tata, P


List of cognitive biases

1 'Cognitive biases' are tendencies to think in certain ways. Cognitive

biases can lead to systematic deviations from a standard of

rationality or good judgment, and are often studied in psychology and

behavioral economics.


List of cognitive biases

1 Such effects are called cognitive biases


Emotion in animals - Cognitive bias test

1 A cognitive bias is a pattern of deviation in judgment, whereby

inferences about other animals and situations may be drawn in an

illogical fashion. Individuals create their own “subjective social reality” from their perception of the input. It

refers to the question Is the glass half empty or half full?, used as an indicator of optimism or pessimism.


Emotion in animals - Cognitive bias test

1 Cognitive biases have been shown in a wide range of species including

including rats, dogs, rhesus macaques, sheep, chicks, starlings

and honeybees.


Name calling - As a cognitive bias in propaganda

1 Name calling is a cognitive bias and a

technique to promote

propagandahttps://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html

Cognitive biases - Reducing cognitive bias

1 Moreover, cognitive biases can be controlled


Cognitive biases - Reducing cognitive bias

1 Although Cognitive Bias Modification can refer to modifying cognitive processes in healthy individuals,

CBMT is a growing area of evidence-based psychological therapy, in which cognitive processes are

modified to relieve sufferingMacLeod, C., Mathews, A., Tata, P


Cognitive bias modification

1 'Cognitive Bias Modification Therapy' (CBMT) is sub-group of therapies

within a growing area of psychological therapies based on

modifying cognitive processes with or without accompanying medication and talk therapy, sometimes referred

to as Applied Cognitive Processing Therapies (ACPT)



1 Similarly, patient insight is not required because CBM seeks to

target the underlying maintaining cognitive bias directly; therefore, patient engagement is likely to be

easier



1 Modifying Interpretation in a Clinically Depressed Sample Using

'Cognitive Bias Modification-Errors': A Double Blind Randomized Controlled

Trial. Cognitive Therapy and Research, 1-14. doi: 10.1007/s10608-

013-9571-y)


Cognitive bias modification - Efficacy evidence base and other research

1 Cognitive bias modification for anxiety: current evidence and future directions


Cognitive bias modification - Efficacy evidence base and other research

1 Socially Anxious Primary Care Patients' Attitudes Toward Cognitive

Bias Modification (CBM): A Qualitative Study


Cognitive bias modification - Attentional retraining|Attention Training

1 The attentional bias is one of several different

cognitive biases


Cognitive bias modification - Attentional retraining|Attention Training

1 Attentional retraining as cognitive bias modification is predicated on the observed attentional bias evident in

psychopathology


Cognitive bias modification - Criticisms and limitations

1 Another concern is that participants with cognitive vulnerability are not able to maintain their new learning

even within a CBM course, with their negative cognitive bias beginning to

re-emerge over time.http://www3.nd.edu/~ghaeffel/R

esources/Haeffeletal2012.pdf


Cognitive bias mitigation

1 'Cognitive bias mitigation' is the prevention and reduction of the

negative effects of cognitive biases – unconscious, automatic influences on

human judgment and decision making that reliably produce

reasoning errors.


Cognitive bias mitigation

1 There is no coherent, comprehensive theory or practice of cognitive bias mitigation. This article describes

tools, methods, proposals and other initiatives, in academic and

professional disciplines concerned with the efficacy of human

reasoning, associated with the concept of cognitive bias mitigation;

most address mitigation tacitly rather than explicitly.


Cognitive bias mitigation - Context

1 has established that a defining characteristic of cognitive biases is

that they manifest automatically and unconsciously over a wide range of

human reasoning, so even those aware of the existence of the

phenomenon are unable to detect, let alone mitigate, their

manifestation via awareness only.


Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias

1 There are few studies explicitly linking cognitive biases to real-world

incidents with highly negative outcomes. Examples:



1 This was a case of highly trained, experienced people breaking their own rules, apparently under the influence of the Overconfidence effect|Overconfidence Effect, the sunk cost fallacy, the availability

heuristic, and perhaps other cognitive biases



1 German researchers examined the role that certain cognitive biases

may have had in the global financial crisis beginning in 2007



1 There are numerous investigations of incidents determining that human

error was central to highly negative potential or actual real-world

outcomes, in which manifestation of cognitive biases is a plausible

component. Examples:



1 A host of Cognitive Biases can be imagined in this situation:

confirmation bias, hindsight bias, overconfidence effect, availability bias, and even the meta-bias bias

blind spot.



1 The power of confirmation bias alone would be sufficient to explain why this happened, but other cognitive biases probably manifested as well.



1 Cognitive Bias in Software Engineering.Communications of the ACM

38(6), June 1995: 57–63.



1 * Other disaster-level examples of negative outcomes resulting from human

error, possibly including multiple Cognitive bias|Cognitive Biases: the Three Mile

Island nuclear meltdown, the loss of the Space Shuttle Challenger, the Chernobyl

nuclear reactor fire, the downing of an Iran Air Flight 655|Iran Air passenger aircraft, the ineffective response to the Hurricane Katrina weather event, and many more.



1 Each of the Cognitive bias|approximately 100 cognitive biases

known to date can also produce negative outcomes in our everyday lives, though rarely as serious as in the examples above. An illustrative

selection, recounted in multiple studies:


Cognitive bias mitigation - Cognitive bias mitigation to date

1 In most cases this is based on explicit reference to cognitive biases

or their mitigation, in others on unstated but self-evident applicability


Cognitive bias mitigation - Decision theory

1 Practitioners tend to treat deviations from what a rational agent would do as 'errors of irrationality', with the

implication that Cognitive Bias Mitigation can only be achieved by

decision makers becoming more like rational agents, though no explicit

measures for achieving this are proffered.


Cognitive bias mitigation - Decision theory

1 Practitioners tend to treat deviations from what a rational agent would do as evidence of important, but as yet

not understood, decision-making variables, and have as yet no explicit or implicit contributions to make to a theory and practice of Cognitive Bias

Mitigation.


Cognitive bias mitigation - Game theory

1 As with decision theory, practitioners tend to view such deviations as

'irrational', and rather than attempt to model such behavior, by

implication hold that Cognitive Bias Mitigation can only be achieved by

decision makers becoming more like rational agents.


Cognitive bias mitigation - Behavioral economics

1 No mention is made in Prospect theory|formal prospect theory of

Cognitive Bias Mitigation, and there is no evidence of peer-reviewed work on Cognitive Bias Mitigation in other

areas of this discipline.


Cognitive bias mitigation - Behavioral economics

1 These contributions assert that Cognitive Bias Mitigation is necessary and offer general

suggestions for how to achieve it, though the guidance is limited to only a few Cognitive Biases and is not self-evidently generalizable to

others.


Cognitive bias mitigation - Neuroeconomics

1 These results must be considered speculative and preliminary, but are

nonetheless suggestive of the possibility of real-time identification

of brain states associated with Cognitive biases|Cognitive Bias

manifestation, and the possibility of purposeful interventions at the

neuronal level to achieve Cognitive Bias Mitigation.


Cognitive bias mitigation - Cognitive psychology

1 Nonetheless, this approach has merit as part of a Cognitive Bias Mitigation protocol when the process is applied

with a maximum of diligence, in situations where good data is

available and all stakeholders can be expected to cooperate.



1 One contribution to a theory and practice of cognitive bias mitigation

from this approach is that it addresses mitigation without explicitly targeting individual

cognitive biases and focuses on the reasoning mechanism itself to avoid

cognitive biases manifestation.



1 of firefighter captains, military platoon leaders and others making

correct, snap judgments under extreme duress suggest that these

responses are likely not generalizable and may contribute to a theory and practice of cognitive bias mitigation

only the general idea of domain-specific intensive training.



1 This finding, if generalizable to other tasks and disciplines, would discount the potential of expert-level training

as a cognitive bias mitigation approach, and could contribute a narrow but important idea to a

theory and practice of cognitive bias mitigation.



1 Laboratory experiments in which cognitive bias mitigation is an explicit goal are rare


Cognitive bias mitigation - Evolutionary psychology

1 The Evolution of Cognitive Bias



1 It is too early to tell whether this idea applies more generally to other

Cognitive bias|Cognitive Biases, but the point of view supporting the

theory may be useful in the construction of a theory and practice

of Cognitive Bias Mitigation.



1 The System 1/2 view of the human reasoning mechanism appears to have empirical plausibility (see Help:Section#Section linking|

Neuroscience, next) and thus may contribute to a theory and practice of

Cognitive Bias Mitigation.


Cognitive bias mitigation - Neuroscience

1 While this notion must remain speculative until further work is

done, it appears to be a productive basis for conceiving options for

constructing a theory and practice of Cognitive Bias Mitigation.Damasio, A


Cognitive bias mitigation - Anthropology

1 If this is true, then one possible means to achieve at least some

Cognitive Bias Mitigation is to mimic, as much as possible,

Paleolithic/Holocene social, political and economic scenarios when one is

performing a reasoning task that could attract negative cognitive bias

effects.


Cognitive bias mitigation - Human reliability engineering

1 While this approach can produce effective responses to critical

situations under stress, the protocols involved must be viewed as having limited generalizability beyond the

domain for which they were developed, with the implication that

solutions in this discipline may provide only generic frameworks to a theory and practice of Cognitive Bias

Mitigation.https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html

Cognitive bias mitigation - Machine learning

1 One technique particularly applicable to Cognitive Bias Mitigation is neural network|neural network learning and

choice selection, an approach inspired by the imagined structure

and function of actual neural networks in the human brain


Cognitive bias mitigation - Machine learning

1 In principle, such models are capable of modeling decision making that

takes account of human needs and motivations within social contexts,

and suggest their consideration in a theory and practice of Cognitive Bias

Mitigation


Cognitive bias mitigation - Software engineering

1 This discipline, though not focused on improving human reasoning

outcomes as an end goal, is one in which the need for such

improvement has been explicitly recognized, though the term

Cognitive Bias Mitigation is not universally used.


Cognitive bias mitigation - Software engineering

1 This study refers to a broad research program with the goal of moving toward a theory and practice of

Cognitive Bias Mitigation.


Cognitive bias mitigation - Other

1 A commercial initiative offers what it refers to as a 'Cognitive Bias

Modification' service (see link below). While suggestive, it is mentioned

here only for completeness, as there is no evidence that this service is backed by peer-reviewed research

results.


Cognitive bias mitigation - Other

1 Other initiatives aimed directly at a theory and practice of Cognitive Bias

Mitigation may exist within other disciplines under different labels than

employed here.


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cognitive bias

Documents

synthesis of cognitive

irrational cognitive

cognitive biasesa

unrelated biases

toolkit bias typesa

h bias typesthe

subgroup of attentional

noisy information processing