Cognitive Biases in Public Participation Processes

Ursina Teuscher, PhDSam Imperati, JD Dan Hahn, MS

teuscher-counseling.com workforceuniverse.commediate.com/icm/

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Representative ClientsPrivate SectorAbercrombie & FitchAdvanced Data ConceptsBristol-Meyer SquibbCalifornia Canned Peach GrowersChevronCounselors of Real EstateDow CorningEdPlus HoldingsEDS CorporationFootwiseFred Meyer, Inc.Fujitsu AmericaGE CapitalHeery InternationalHydaburg Fisheries & TribeInFocus Systems, Inc.One Block Off The GridStatement of RatesPortland Community CollegeProvidence Hospitals, Olympia & PortlandSacred Heart Medical CenterSwedish Medical CenterUniversities of Idaho, Oregon andWashingtonUnitusU.S. Bankruptcy/District Courts: SouthernDistrict of New York, Western District ofPennsylvania, California & Oregon

U.S. Bureau of Land Management, U.S.Immigration & Naturalization Service, U.S. Forest Service, & U.S. Soil Conservation ServiceWestern Conference of Workers Comp InsurersWashington Assoc. of Medical Staff ServicesVA Medical Councils: NY, OR-WA, LAWA and OR State Bar AssociationsWA, OR, MT, and ID Mediation AssociationsNW NaturalPortland General ElectricPortland Metropolitan Area Realtors Professional ProfundsLiability FundSafeway, Inc.State Accident Insurance FundSeminar GroupShell OilStandard Insurance CompanyState FarmVirginia Mason Medical CentersWaggener EdstromWomen Entrepreneurs of OregonXerox

Understanding how cognitive biases influence participant opinion in your public process

Tools you can use to help those participants:● Recognize their impact● Re-think their points of view ● Provide balanced recommendations

Workshop Goal

Agenda

● Cognitive conflict awareness

● Cognitive bias overview and exercises

● Solutions

Decision Making and Emotion“Cognitive Conflict” = Importance x UncertaintyExamples:

1. High Importance and High Uncertainty2. High Importance and Low Uncertainty3. Low Importance and High Uncertainty4. Low Importance and Low Uncertainty

Too much cognitive conflict creates PANICToo little creates APATHY

Janis, I. L., & Mann, L. Decision Making: A psychological analysis of conflict. NY: Free Press.Berlyne, D. E. Structure and Direction in Thinking. NY: Wiley

Navigating Psychological Traps

The $20 Auction:1. Bidding starts at $1 and proceeds in $1 increments.

And, yes, this is for real money!2. No jump bidding.3. Fair warning before the auction ends.4. No communication, verbal or nonverbal, is allowed.5. Highest bidder pays what they bid and gets $20.6. Second highest pays what they bid.

A) Competitive Arousal (Rivalry), Spotlight, & Time Pressures Avoid Them!

C) Concession Aversion:

People perceive equal trades as unequal:

● Losses are overvalued

● Gains are undervalued

● Equal trades are difficult to make

I used to have an apple...

I used to have an orange...

D) Construal Biases:

People think others hold more extreme views than they do in a partisan situation

E) Fairness as a Decision-Making Criterion:

People reject deals that leave them better off than no deal if they perceive that their norms of fairness are being violated in accepting the deal.

F) Fundamental Attribution Error:

We react to situations while others act in accordance with immutable character traits.

i.e. - We attribute good motivations to ourselves and bad to others.

That train derailment

made me late!

You’re late because you’re

lazy!

G) The Availability Bias:

Tendency to focus on information that is more readily available to us.

People overestimate causes of death that make the news (airplane vs car crashes, cancer vs asthma).

The Ladder of Inference7. We are mystified and frustrated by their position6. We are confronted with the opposing view5. We take action based on that belief4. We then make the assumption that the only logicalconclusion is that we are right and they are wrong3. We subconsciously select the data that supports arepreconceived position2. We don’t appreciate we are only capable ofprocessing some of it1. We start with a large pool of available dataAdapted from Peter Senge

H) Confirmation Bias:

The undermining of data that is inconsistent with our pre-existing mindset; thus “overvaluing” our position

Quickly read the colors of the inks:

REDORANGEYELLOWGREENBLUE

PURPLE

Again, read the colors of the inks:

REDORANGEYELLOWGREENBLUE

PURPLE

I) Automatic Cognitive Processes:

Control us more than we want to admit

J) Sunk Costs Trap

We tend to favor alternatives which we have incurred substantial costs for

Even though these costs were incurred in the past and usually unrecoverable

Previous investment should not be considered when evaluating new alternatives

Pop Quiz: First Question

● If you choose to exit now through Door 1, you get an envelope with $200.

● If you choose Door 2, you get a sealed envelope randomly pulled from a bag.

● 20% of the envelopes contain $1,000 and 80% are empty.

● Which do you choose?

Second Question● The doors are now locked. If you go out Door 1, you will be

required to pay $200.

● If you choose Door 2, you get a sealed envelope randomly pulled from a bag.

● 20% of the time you will be required to pay $1,000. 80% of the time you leave for free.

● Which do you choose?

L. Loss Aversion:

People often fear losses more than they value gains even when the amounts (expected utilities) are the same!

Door 2

Door 1$200

20%

80%

$1,000

$0

20% * $1,000 = $200

80% * $0 = $0

+ = $200

= $200

The Punch Lines

● Smart people make systematic decision making mistakes on a regular basiso Effects many managerial and executive decisions

Why? Automatic cognitive processes are habit-bound. Weare each so darn human!

Example

“TheCatChasedTheDog”

is easier to understandand remember than

“daCCaDeteghhhosTeT”

Mentally Evaluating Simultaneous Considerations is Challenging:

“What day follows the day before yesterday

if two days from now will be Sunday?”

Instead, Divide and Conquer

What day is two days before Sunday?Easy! Friday

If today is Friday, what day was the day before

yesterday?Easy! Wednesday

If today is Wednesday, what day is tomorrow?

Easy! Thursday

This list is difficult to process and remember:

CARROT, LAWYER, PLANE, SPEAR, TRUCK,PEAS, KNIFE, SAILOR, PISTOL, BROCCOLI,DOCTOR, BOAT, SWORD, CAR, CORN,PLUMBER,

Bousefield, W. A. (1953). The occurrence of clustering in the recall of randomly arranged associates. Journal of General Psychology, 49, 229-240.

The following list is easier to process and remember:

CARROT, BROCCOLI, CORN, PEAS,

KNIFE, PISTOL, SPEAR, SWORD,

TRUCK, CAR, BOAT, PLANE,

DOCTOR, LAWYER, PLUMBER, SAILOR

We understand better when we organize attributes into groups

Cofer, C. N. (1951). Verbal behavior in relation to reasoning and values. In H. Guetzkow (Ed.), Groups, Leadership, and Men. Pittsburgh: Carnegie Institute for Conflict Press.

We Understand Differently When We Arrange Attributes Differently

SKYSCRAPER, TEMPLE, CATHEDRAL, PRAYERsuggests the category “buildings”, and PRAYERseems not to belong.

PRAYER, TEMPLE, CATHEDRAL, SKYSCRAPERsuggests the category “religion”, and SKYSCAPPERseems not to belong.

Solution: Attribute Re-framing

We are afraid of noise, pollution, inconvenience, reduced overall quality of life, higher taxes

Solution: Attribute Re-framing

Better:Calm, cleanliness, convenience, quality of life, investment

Crum, A. J., Salovey, P., & Achor, S. (2013). Rethinking stress: The role of mindsets in determining the stress response. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 104(4), 716–733. Achor, S. (2013). Before Happiness: Five Actionable Strategies to Create a Positive Path to Success. Random House.

Solution: Priority Checklist

Well Structured Set of Priorities:❏ Fundamental (not instrumental)❏ Positive❏ Non-redundant❏ Objective/quantifiable ❏ Meaningful❏ Complete❏ Relevant❏ Independent

Solution: Decision Tables

Criterion 1 Criterion 2 Criterion 3 Criterion …

Option 1

Option 2

Option 3

Option …

Solution: Decision Tables25% 40% 15% 20%

Benefit for Local

BusinessExpense

Neighborhood Aesthetics

Parking

Pedestrian Zone

Bike Paths

Weekend Closures

No Change

Solution: Decision Tables25% 40% 15% 20%

Benefit for Local

BusinessExpense

Neighborhood Aesthetics

Parking

Pedestrian Zone

High Moderate Excellent Poor

Bike Paths Moderate High No Change Moderate

Weekend Closures

Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate

No Change None Low UnchangedUnchange

d

Solution: Decision Tables25% 40% 15% 20%

Benefit for Local

BusinessExpense

Neighborhood Aesthetics

Parking

Pedestrian Zone

High Moderate Excellent Poor

Bike Paths Moderate High No Change Moderate

Weekend Closures

Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate

No Change None Low UnchangedUnchange

d

Solution: Decision Tables25% 40% 15% 20%

Benefit for Local Business

Expense

Neighborhood Aesthetics

Parking

Pedestrian Zone

10 5 10 3 6.6

Bike Paths 5 1 4 5 3.25

Weekend Closures

5 5 6 4 4.95

No Change 3 9 5 5 6.1

Solution: Decision Tables

A) Provides external memory

B) Compares alternatives systematicallyC) Focuses on outcomes and factsD) Analyzes outcomes by attributes/criteriaE) Arranges attributes/criteria into weighted groups

Solution: Decision Trees

No Pedestrian Zone (No Change)

+ $125,000 for Local Business

75%

25%

Pedestrian Zone (New)

- $300,000 on Local Business

No Change

$18,750

Expected Utility

$0

75% * $125,000

+ 25% * - $300,000

Solution: Structuring Uncertainty w/ Multiple Criteria

Solution: Decision Trees

Solution: Education

Someone takes a strident standPoster child for cognitive biasesHow do you confront this and save face?

Normalize the reaction:“I’m not surprised to see polarized

views…”

Thank you

teuscher-counseling.com workforceuniverse.commediate.com/icm/

Ursina Teuscher, PhDSam Imperati, JD Dan Hahn, MS