col the 2016 market briefing
DESCRIPTION
COL financial's report summary on Philippine Market Outlook of 2016.TRANSCRIPT
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During our last briefing, we said that
• We remain positive on the market’s long term view• However, it could take a while for the market to
resume its uptrend due to numerous challenges in the short term
Unfortunately, CHALLENGES remain
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Earnings performance continues to disappoint
Period Above Inline BelowMedian '15E EPS growth
1Q 19.0% 41.4% 39.7% 17.1%
2Q 23.2% 37.5% 39.3% 8.8%
3Q 23.2% 42.9% 33.9% 7.5%
Source: COL Estimates
Actual earnings vs. estimates
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China continues to weaken
GDP growth Manufacturing PMI
6.8%
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
49.7
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Bloomberg
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5U.S. Fed maintains its divergent monetary policy
125 bps1-year lending & deposit rate cut 5X by 125 bpsRRR cut by a total of 200 bps to 17.5%
DECEMBER 201525 bps rate hike
DECEMBER 2015Deposit rate cut 10 bps, bond purchase extended6 mos.
2016Four potential rate hikes of 25bps each
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Leading to a strong USD & falling commodity prices
US dollar Commodity prices (CRB Index)
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
+35.7%
-35.0%
Source: Bloomberg
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7Hurting several developing economies
Commodity dependency (net exports, % of GDP)
USA
USA
Greenland
Canada
S America
Europe
Middle EastAfrica
Russia
Kazakhstan
China
India
Australia
NZ
Philippines
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Why commodity prices matter (to developing economies)
Source: UNCTAD, Bloomberg
+57%
71%
85%
-35%
-74%
Value of commodity
exports (‘09-’10 to ‘12-’13)
% of developing countries that derive >60% of export from
commodities% of least developed countries that derive >60% of exports from
commodities
Average drop in commodity
prices since ‘11
Drop in oil prices since ‘11
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Countries with high commodity dependence & current account deficits are most vulnerable
Measures of vulnerabilityDeveloping Market
Commodity Net Export* (% GDP) CA/GDP**
Brazil 3.8% -4.2%Russia 18.0% 3.1%India -7.9% -1.4%China -7.0% 2.1%Mexico 1.9% -2.1%South Africa 1.5% -5.4%Turkey -3.5% -5.7%Indonesia 5.7% -3.0%Malaysia 7.0% 7.1%Philippines -4.8% 4.4%Thailand -6.0% 3.5%
*2012-13**2014Source: UNCTAD, IMF (for Russia only), COL estimates
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Although more resilient, Philippines is showing signs of vulnerability
OFW remittances growthMonth 2009 2015January 0.1% 0.5%February 4.9% 4.2%March 3.1% 11.3%April 2.2% 5.1%May 3.7% 5.8%June 3.3% 6.1%July 9.3% 0.5%August 2.8% -0.6%September 8.6% 4.3%October 6.7% 0.2%November 11.3%December 11.4%Peso Depreciation 15.0% 4.6%
Deceleration of OFW remittances growth can not be solely explained by weaker peso
Source: BSP
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Major threat from significant exposure to Middle East
Source: POEA, BSP, UNCTAD
2.4 Mil
61%
23%
10%
24%
OFWs deployed in ‘14
(1.9 Mil land based)
% of deployed land based OFWs going to
the Middle East
Share of OFW remittances from the
Middle East
CA/GDP of Saudi Arabia (‘14)
Commodity net export of Saudi
Arabia (%GDP, ‘13)
Saudi Arabia abandons its currency peg
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Peso is weakening . . .
Peso exchange rate
40.581
47.78
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bloomberg
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6.21
6.58
6.00
6.10
6.20
6.30
6.40
6.50
6.60
6.70
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-
15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct
-15
Nov
-15
Dec-
15
Jan-
16
Brought about by internal & external factors4.
61.
25.
44.
12.
8 4.3
7.3
14.5
7.2
3.3
10.0
0.7 2.
20.
17.
44.
72.
41.
5 1.9
1.7
-7.0
0.5 1.0
0.7 1.3
1.1
0.2
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
3Q15
Chinese yuanBoP/GDP (%)
Source: Bloomberg, BSP
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Interest rates rising
Factors pushing up rates• Anticipation of Fed rate hike• Weaker peso• Uncertainty on how the
interest rate corridor will be implemented
Philippines 10-year bond rate
4.42%
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Bloomberg
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Weak peso, rising rates not good for stock market
Peso vs PSEi 10-year bond rates
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
PSEi Php:US$
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Bloomberg
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Elections also hurting sentiment
Source: Pulse Asia Nov 2015 presidential candidate preference survey results
34% 26% 22% 11%
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The major correction is now threatening to become a bear market
• PSEi now down 23% from the peak
• Abundance of challenges making it difficult to fight contagion
PSEi & other ASEAN markets
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016
Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia
Source: Bloomberg
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An opportunity to participate in the Philippines’ attractive LT fundamentals at bargain prices
Only a “cyclical bear” in a “secular bull” • Strength of BPO sector to help offset weakness of OFW
remittances
• Weaker peso is good for the economy
• Consumer sector has been resilient regardless of the president
• Magnitude of rate hikes not expected to be significant
• Listed companies remain fundamentally strong
• Market’s valuation starting to look attractive
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Strength of the BPO sector to help offset weakness of OFW remittances
Combined OFW remittances & BPO revenues can still grow by 8.3% in 2016E and 7.8% in 2017E
18,7
63
20,1
17
21,3
91
22,9
84
24,3
48
24,7
68
24,7
68
24,7
68
10,0
58
12,0
74
13,4
50
15,3
05
18,9
00
21,2
00
25,0
00
28,9
00
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
OFW Remittances BPO Revs
OFW remittances & BPO revenues
Source: BSP, IBPAP, COL Estimates
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Weak peso is good for the economy
• Boost the value of OFW remittances
• Equivalent to 11.8% of consumer spending
• OFW remittances increased by 185% in dollar terms but only 126% in peso terms the last 10 years
• Make exports and the BPO sector more competitive
OFW remittances (US$ & Php)
+185%
+126%
OFW Remittances (US$) OFW Remittances (Php)
Source: BSP, COL Estimates
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Consumer spending has been resilient regardless of the president
Consumer spending growth under different administrations
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Cory AquinoAve:4.2%
Ramos Ave:3.6%
Estrada Ave:4.5%
Arroyo Ave:4.3%
PNoyAve:5.3%
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Thanks to several favorable LT factors
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Magnitude of rate hikes not expected to be significant
ISM manufacturing PMI (U.S.)
48.2
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: Bloomberg
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Magnitude of rate hikes not expected to be significant
Banks loans to deposit ratio Government debt/GDP
68.1
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
45.4
40
45
50
55
60
65
Source: Bloomberg
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Listed companies remain fundamentally strong
• Most leveraged companies have defensive businesses
• Minimal unhedged US dollar debt exposure
Net D/E ≥ 0.9 Unhedged US$ Debt (US$Mil)
% of total debtCompany Net D/E
CEB 1.3 700 100.0%BLOOM 1.0 - -MCP 1.0 - -EDC 1.1 262 23.4%FGEN 1.0 - -TEL 1.1 - -GLO 0.9 - -
Sensitivity to higher rates & weak peso
Source: COL estimates
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Valuations starting to look attractive
• At 6,259, PSEi trading at 15.6X 2016E P/E, below the 5-year historical average of 16.5X P/E
• PSEi no longer trading at a premium relative to other ASEAN markets despite its strong LT fundamentals
Valuation of regional markets
Source: Bloomberg, COL estimates
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Conundrum of investing during a bear market
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”- Warren Buffett
“ The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”- John Maynard Keynes
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Conundrum of investing during a bear market
Objective: Employ a strategy to capitalize on the OPPORTUNITY but manage the RISKS
Opportunity
• Significant gains
Risks
• Steep decline
• Long duration
• Nobody knows the
bottom
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Recommended strategy
1. Invest only LT money – Bear markets take long to finish.
2. Don’t use margin – Using margin exposes you to the risk of a margin call, which in turn forces you to sell at a low price.
3. Spread out your buying – Nobody knows when or where the bottom will be. Deploy your capital using peso cost averaging over 18 months to improve your average cost.
4. Set conservative buying prices – Remember it’s a buyer’s market. There’s no need to be aggressive.
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Anatomy of a bear market
Bear Markets
Peak to trough
Duration
GlobalHistoricalAverage*
55.9%
40 months
Shortest & Shallowest**
22.5%
5 months
Longest & Deepest**
84.8%
153 months
Sources: *“This time it’s different” by Reinhart & Rogoff**Greenbakd.com
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Anatomy of a bear market
Bear Markets
Peak to trough
Date
Duration
GlobalHistoricalAverage
55.9%
NA
40 months
Asian Financial
Crisis
71.6%
2/97-10/01
56 months
Global Financial
Crisis
56.8%
10/07- 10/08
12 months
Today
22.6%
4/15 to ?
9 months
Source: “This time it’s different” by Reinhart & Rogoff, COL estimates
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Recommended strategy
5. Be defensive - We recommend buying a basket of more defensive companies that have strong balance sheets. You can also choose to buy an index fund which is automatically diversified and less volatile, or you can combine an index fund with a few stock picks.
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Stock picks
Power Sector
FGEN (Php18.24, FV: Php32.70)
• Engaged in the defensive business of power generation
• 93% of revenues derived from long term contract agreements
• Although it has US$394 Mil worth of debts, its revenues are in dollars providing it with a natural hedge
• Profits are forecast to grow by 22% this year
• Trading at only 10.4X 16P/E, while providing a dividend yield of 2.9%
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Stock picks
Property Sector
ALI (Php27.95, FV: Php41.67)
• One of the largest property companies in the country with a diversified source of revenues and project locations
• Leasing businesses account for 35% of EBIT
• Highly manageable net D/E of 0.84X as of 9M15, while 85% of borrowings have fixed rates
• Already trading at 33.6% discount to NAV, wider than its historical average discount of 25%
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Stock picks
Property Sector
MEG (Php3.17, FV: Php5.58)
• One of the largest property companies in the country
• Due to significant expansion, leasing businesses now account for 43% of EBIT
• Very conservative net D/E of 0.07X
• Now trading at 57.5% discount to NAV, already close to 1 STDV below its historical average discount of 59.2%, and only 9.1X 16E P/E
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Stock picks
Property Sector
SMPH (Php19.18, FV: Php21.70)
• Most defensive property company in the Philippines deriving 78.6% of EBT from rental income, predominantly from malls which is the most resilient
• Net D/E is only 0.47X
• Buy below Php18.90 which is its based on its historical average P/E of 23.2X.
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Stock picks
Property Sector
RLC (Php23.05, FV: Php29.60)
• Also a highly defensive property company in the Philippines deriving 77% of EBIT from rental income
• Net D/E is only 0.38X• Already trading at 33.8%
discount to its NAV
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Stock picks
Consumer Sector
DNL (Php7.10, FV: Php8.30)
• A defensive company as most of its products are sold to manufacturers of non-discretionary consumer goods
• Focused on specialized products which minimizes competition and improves its pricing power
• Net D/E is only 0.24X, 28X interest cover
• Currently trading at 18.7X 16E P/E, below the consumer sector average of 23.5X
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Stock picks
Consumer Sector
CNPF (Php15.12, FV: Php21.50)
• Main businesses (fish and meat) which account for 70% of revenues are highly defensive and where it is the market leader
• EPS to increase by a CAGR of 25.2% during the next two years largely due to the acquisition of the coconut business
• Net D/E is only 0.05X, 45X interest cover
• Currently trading at only 12.7X 16E P/E, well below the consumer sector average of 23.5X, despite its above average growth outlook
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Summary of stock picks
Stock picks
Sector Stock Price FV Buy Below Price
High Conviction Buy Price
Power FGEN 18.24 32.70 28.40 16.50
Properties*
SMPH 19.18 21.70 18.90 12.22ALI 27.95 41.67 36.20 24.00
MEG 3.17 5.58 4.70 3.05RLC 23.05 29.60 25.70 19.50
Consumer DNL 7.10 8.30 7.20 6.60CNPF** 15.12 21.50 17.20 14.28
*Limit to only a maximum of 30% of portfolio**Limit exposure to 5% of portfolio due to illiquid nature of stock
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Summary of stock picks
Index Fund
Ticker Current Level
Buy Below Price
High Conviction Buy Price
PSEi 6,135.38 6,400.00 5,600.00Equity FundThe PhilequityPSE Index Fund XPEIF 4.091 4.262 3.729
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Recommended strategy
5. Be defensive - We recommend buying a basket of more defensive companies that have strong balance sheets. You can also choose to buy an index fund which is automatically diversified and less volatile, or you can combine an index fund with a few stock picks.
6. Be mentally prepared to see losses in the short term – This is normal while the market is trending lower.
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Rewards for staying invested even during difficult times
S&P 500 20 year average annual return (1994-2013)
Source: Davis Advisors
9.20%
5.50%
0.90%
-4.40%
-8.60%-10.00%-8.00%-6.00%-4.00%-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%
10.00%12.00%
Stayed thecourse
Missed best10 days
Missed best30 days
Missed best60 days
Missed best90 days
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45