cold season 500 hpa cutoff cyclone precipitation distribution and a case study tony fracasso...
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![Page 1: Cold Season 500 hPa Cutoff Cyclone Precipitation Distribution and a Case Study Tony Fracasso Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University at](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042702/56649d4b5503460f94a28f4d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Cold Season 500 hPa Cutoff Cyclone Precipitation Distribution
and a Case Study
Tony FracassoDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
University at Albany, State University of New York
Advisors: Lance Bosart and Dan Keyser
NWS Focal Point: Mike Evans (Binghamton, NY)
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Project Objectives
a) Stratify precip. distribution relative to cutoff cyclone tracks as identified in composites developed by B. Smith (2003)
b) Map/understand cutoff cyclone precipitation characteristics in composites
c) Document mesoscale precipitation signatures in case studies representative of each of the composites
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Project Objectives, cont.
d) Document contribution of upright and slantwise ascent to precipitation in case studies representative of each of the composites
e) Revisit D. Novak (2002) findings on bands/frontogenesis through selectedcase studies
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Cool season composite mean cutoff cyclone tracks
B. Smith (2003)
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Progress to date
• Monthly composites of precipitation where a 500 hPa low was present
• Graphical and textual record of cool season (October – May) 500 hPa cutoff low tracks (1980-1998)– Both sets of tracks are in agreement
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Outer Domain
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in./daymm/day
NOV
MAYMAR
JAN
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1980-1998
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1980-1998
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Progress to Date: Case Studies
• Detailed first pass on 23-30 May 2003 cutoff• Preliminary information on other case studies
– Christmas snowstorm (25-26 Dec. 2002)
– 3-4 January 2003 snowstorm
– 7 February 2003 snowband near Boston
– Presidents’ Day snowstorm (16-17 Feb. 2003)
– 10-14 May 2003 cutoff
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Current Work
• Categorizing cutoffs by individual track– Ex: 11 “Mid-Atlantic Track” cutoffs during
Octobers 1980-1998 (total of 25 days)
• Use simple composite and storm-relative compositing methods
• Build a user-friendly database of cutoffs (1980-1998)
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in./day
mm/day
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in./day
mm/day
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All tracks Octobers 1948-1998
Mid-Atlantic tracks Octobers 1980-1998
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Maximum surface report:
13.19 in. (335.0 mm) at
Greenland, NH (Rockingham
County)19
23
22
21
20
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Accumulated Precipitation (cm) (24 – 29 May 2003)
Dates are 12Z locations
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00Z 24 May 2003 – 500 hPa Heights (dam) and Abs. Vorticity (x10-5 s-1)
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12Z 24 May 2003
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00Z 25 May 2003
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12Z 25 May 2003
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00Z 26 May 2003
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12Z 26 May 2003
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00Z 27 May 2003
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12Z 27 May 2003
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12Z 26
12Z 27
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00Z 28 May 2003
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12Z 28 May 2003
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12Z 27
12Z 28
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00Z 29 May 2003
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12Z 29 May 2003
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12Z 28
12Z 29
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U.S. Radar loop 00Z 23– 23Z 29 May 2003
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Future Work
• Analyze precip. patterns between cutoffs of the same track
• Examine the other cases more closely (synoptic scale and mesoscale)
• Attempt to find a forecasting “heads-up” for cutoff precip.
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Banding to beat the snow…