colette l. heald noaa climate and global change postdoctoral fellow
DESCRIPTION
Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change. Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow University of California, Berkeley ([email protected]) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future
climate, emissions, and land-use change
Colette L. HealdNOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow
University of California, Berkeley([email protected])
Daven Henze, Larry Horowitz, Johannes Feddema, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Alex Guenther, Peter Hess, Francis Vitt, Allen Goldstein, Inez
Fung, John Seinfeld
International Union of Geodesy and GeophysicsJuly 9, 2007
ORGANIC CARBON AEROSOL
Semi-Volatiles
Oxidation by OH, O3, NO3
Direct Emission
Fossil Fuel Biomass Burning
MonoterpenesSesquiterpenes
Partitioning (non-linear)
Aromatics
ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCESBIOGENIC SOURCES
Isoprene
Secondary
Organic
Aerosol
Primary
Organic
Aerosol
WHY WE SHOULDN’T FOCUS EXCLUSIVELY ON SULFATE…
Organic carbon aerosol is the green part of the pie globally more than sulfate
[Zhang et al., in press]SulfateOrganics
MODELING FRAMEWORK
Community Land Model (CLM3)Datasets: Lawrence and Chase [2007]
Feddema et al. [2007]
LAI (MODIS)Plant Functional Types
Soil moistureVegetation Temperature
BVOC Algorithms[Guenther et al., 1995; 2006]
Monterpenes: GEIAIsoprene: MEGAN
Community Atmospheric Model (CAM3)
ChemistryTransportRadiation
BVOC Emissions
VegetationMeteorology
RadiationPrecipitation
SOA production2-product model from oxidation of:1. Monoterpenes [Chung and Seinfeld, 2002]2. Isoprene [Henze and Seinfeld, 2006]3. Aromatics [Henze et al., 2007]
AnthropogenicEmissions,
GHG concentrations,SST
PRESENT-DAY (2000) SOA
Isoprene is the largest SOA source in this simulation, and also the longest lived dominates burden
PRESENT/PROJECTED BIOGENIC EMISSIONS
496 TgC/yr2100:607 TgC/yr
43 TgC/yr2100:51 TgC/yr
22% increase primarily driven by global temperature increases (1.8°C)
PRESENT/PROJECTED ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS
45 TgC/yr
16 TgC/yr
2100:A1B: 20 TgC/yrA2: 35 TgC/yr
2100:A1B: 72 TgC/yrA2: 96 TgC/yr
Large increases predicted, especially over Asia
CHANGES IN TOTAL SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 (A1B) FROM PRESENT-DAY
Surface SOA
Zonal SOA
Δ AnthropogenicEmissions
Δ BiogenicEmissions
Δ Climate
+7%Global Burden +26% +6%
CHANGES IN SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 FROM PRESENT-DAY DUE TO LAND-USE CHANGE (A2)
SOA (TOTAL)BVOC emissions
Feddema et al. [2007] Projections
Expansion of croplands (low BVOC emitters) at the expense of broadleaf trees OVERALL SOA BURDEN: -14%
Isoprene
Monoterpenes
TOTAL EFFECT OF EMISSIONS & CLIMATE ON SOA
Climate and Emission: +36%
Anthropogenic Land-use: -14%Natural Vegetation: ??
TOTAL SOA
SOA SENSITIVITY SIMULATIONS: REGIONAL SOA SOURCES
South America is the largest SOA source in
present-day but significant growth expected for Asia
by 2100 (and may overtake South America as the
largest SOA source region under an A2 scenario).
CHANGES TO SOA PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY
SOA production efficiency likely increase in EU and NA due to NOx ↓but will decrease in urban regions of SH/tropics.
2000 2100-2000
SOA production is less efficient under high NOx conditions.
SurfaceNO/HO2
INCREASING SOA: CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS?
Present-Day Burden: 0.5-0.7 TgS1
Projection:↓ by > 50% by 2100?
SULFATE
SOA
1 [Koch et al., 1999; Barth et al., 2000; Takemura et al., 2000]
Present-Day Burden: 0.59 TgCProjection: 36%↑
SO
A B
urd
en
Andreae et al. [2005] suggest ↓ sulfate will accelerate greenhouse gas warming, but SOA may compensate