COLLECTION, PROCESSING AND DISTRIBUTION OF SHORT-TERM STATISTICS

EXPERIENCE OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS

Head of Main Department of the Industrial Statistics of the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus

Dovnar O.A.

INITIAL DATA

monthly on 4th working day arrives data:

industrial production (works, services of an industrial nature) in terms of value

Production of industrial production in physical quantity

shipment volume of industrial production (works, services of an industrial nature) in terms of value

stocks of finished products in terms of value

stocks of finished products in physical quantity

SCOPE OF RESPONDENTS

Large and medium industrial organizations (average number of employees from 101) monthly

Small organizations - the average number of employees from 16 to 100 quarterly

Micro-organization (the average number of employees up to 15 inclusively) quarterly

Industrial production of non-commercial organizations quarterly

METHODOLOGYClassifier :

Calculation :

Weights for aggregation:

Changing the base year :

Revision of the representative goods

National classifications of economic activities in the 4-digit harmonized with NACE, ed.1.1 and at the level of 2 digits ISIC, ed. 3

based on a set of representative goods

Gross value added by activity for the base year (t-2)

annually

annually

FORMULA FOR CALCULATION OF THE INDICES OF PRODUCTION by elementary type of economic activity (subclass)

Qt, Qt-1, Qb – amount of produced production for

the reporting month (period) in the previous month (period) and a monthly average of base year

Pb – average unit price in the base year

n  – the number of representative goods involved in the calculation of the index in the subclass

it/b - indices in the reporting period t (month or period from the beginning of the reporting year), and a monthly average of produced production of the base year

it-1/b - indexes in the previous period t-1 (the previous month, the corresponding month of last year or relevant period from the beginning of last year), the monthly average of produced production of the base year

it/t-1 - indices in the reporting period t compared to the previous period t-1

100i

nPQ

nPQ

t/bbb

bt

100/1

1

nPQ

nPQ

btbb

bt

i

100/1

/1/

btibti

tti

HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE OF CALCULATION OF THE INDEX OF PRODUCTION

by subclass of "manufacture of luggage, handbags and similar articles"

Title of representative

goods

Production of goods in physical terms

The average

price in the base year

(Pb)

Cost of produced production in the average annual prices in the

base year

Indices of production to the average

monthly value of the base year

The production index for January

2009 as % of January

2008

(it/t-1)

Январь 2009 г.

(Qt)

Январь 2008 г.

(Qt-1)

в сред-нем за месяц

базисного года

(Qb)

Январь 2009 г.

(Qt Pb)

Январь 2010 г.

(Qt-1 Pb)

В среднем за месяц базисного

года

(Qb Pb)

( it/b) (it-1/b)

A 1 2 3 4 5=1*4 6=2*4 7=3*4 8=5/7% 9=6/7 % 10=8/9%

Suitcases, pieces 11725 10841 10750 115300 11725 * 115300

10841 * 115300

10750 * 115300

109,1 100,8 108,2

Briefcases, pieces 13752 12510 12490 48020 13752 * 48020

12510 * 48020

12490* 48020

110,1 100,2 109,9

Handbags, pieces 78674 68520 72592 69410 78674 * 69410

68520 * 69410

72592 * 69410

108,4 94,4 114,8

TOTAL GROUP 104151 91871 95832 (11725 * 115300) + (13752 * 48020) +

(7867 * 69410)

(10841 * 115300) + (12510 * 48020) + (68520 * 69410)

(10750 * 115300) + (12490* 48020) + (72592 * 69410)

108,7% 96,1% 113,1

FORMULA FOR CALCULATION OF GROSS VALUE ADDED

W= V × Dw:100

W – gross value added

V – volume of industrial production

Dw – share of gross value added in a volume of industrial production

HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE OF CALCULATION OF GROSS VALUE ADDED

by subclass "Leather, leather products and footwear"

Title of groups of the NCEA related to the production of

leather, leather products and footwear

Volume of production in the actual sales prices, mln. rubles

share of gross value added, %

Gross value added of the base year, mln. rubles

A 1 2 3=1*2/100

Production of leather, products from leather and footwear 551630 Х 214971

Tanning and leather finishing 115020 32,0 36806

Productionof luggage, handbags and other products from leather 53205 25,0 13301

Production of footwear 383405 43,0 164864

FORMULAE OF CALCULATING AGGREGATE PRODUCTION INDICES

by classes, groups, partitions, sections NCEA and for the whole industry

It/t-1= It/b : It-1/b х 100

It/b, It-1/b - aggregate indices for time periods t and t-1, respectively, compared with average monthly production of the base year

It/t-1 – aggregate index for the period of time t, as a percentage of the time period t-1

it/b, it-1/b – indices by subclasses (classes, groups, partitions, sections NCEA), included into classes (groups, sections, sections of the NCEA and the whole industry) for the period of time t and t-1, respectively, compared with average monthly production of the base year

W –  gross value added of the base year by subclasses (classes, groups, partitions, sections NCEA), included into classes (groups, sections, sections of the NCEA and the whole industry)

m –  amount of subclasses (classes, groups, divisions, sections NCEA), included respectively in classes (groups, sections, sections of the NCEA and the whole industry)

,/1

1I

m

W

mWbti

/bt

m

W

mWbti

t/bI/

FORMULA OF CALCULATING OF THE TOTAL INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION BY FULL

RANGE OF ORGANIZATIONS, engaged in industrial production :

Ifull_range — production index by type of economic activity by the full range of organizations engaged in industrial production

Iprod. — production index of big and middle industrial organizations

Dprod.—  share of production volume auxiliary industrial production in total industrial production in the base period

Iauxil.— industrial production index by auxiliary industrial productions

 Dauxil. —  share of total industrial production auxiliary industrial production in total volume of industrial production in the base period

Isb — production index of subjects of small business

Dsb — share of volume of industrial production small business subjects in total volume of industrial production in the base period

sbsbauxilauxilprodprodrangefull DIDIDII ...._

HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE OF INDEX CALCULATION by subsection "Production of leather, products from leather and

footwear manufacturing"

Name of groups related to the

production of leather, products from leather

and footwear manufacturing

Indices of production to the average monthly value

of the base year

Gross value added of the base year, mln. rubles

(W)

Irrational value The production index to the average

monthly value of the base year

The production index for January 2009

as % of January

2008

(It/t-1)

January2009

(it/b)

January 2010

(it-1/b)

January2009

(it/b*W)

January2010

(it-1/b*W)

January 2009

(It/b)

January 2010

(It-1/b)

A 1 2 3 4 5 6=4/3 7=5/3 8=6/7Production of leather, products from leather and footwear manufacturing

х х 214971 (103,6 * 36806) +

(108,7*13301) +

(95,2 * 164864)

(100,4 * 36806)+

(96,1 * 13301) +

(102,3 * 164864)

97,5 101,6 96,0

Tanning and leather finishing

103,6 100,4 36806 103,6 * 36806 100,4 * 36806

Manufacture of luggage, handbags and other products from leather

108,7 96,1 13301 108,7 * 13301 96,1 * 13301

Footwear manufacturing

95,2 102,3 164864 95,2 * 164864 102,3 * 164864

FORMULA OF CALCULATING THE VOLUME OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

by auxiliary industrial production and subjects of small business by each type of economic activity

Vauxil.+sb—  volume of industrial production of auxiliary industrial production and subjects of small businesses in the reporting period

V prod. — volume of industrial production of large and medium industrial organizations in the reporting period

К — ratio between the volume of industrial production of auxiliary industrial production and subjects of small businesses, and the volume of industrial production of large and medium industrial organizations

KVV prodsbauxil ..

FORMULA OF CALCULATING OF THE RATIO on each activity

Ifull_range—  production index of by full range of organizations engaged in industrial production in the reporting period

Iprod..— production index of large and medium industrial organizations in the reporting period

Dprod..— share of volume of industrial production of large and medium Industrial organizations in the total volume of industrial production in the base period

..

.._ 100prodprod

prodprodrangefull

DI

DIIK

FREQUENCY OF CALCULATION

The first estimate (preliminary data) – monthly on the 11th day

The second estimate (specified data) -once a year on the 11th day of January of a year following the reporting

The third estimate (final data) – once a year in July of a year following the reporting

PUBLICATIONS

monthly report "Socio-economic situation of the Republic of Belarus“

statistical collections and bulletins issued by Belstat

“Statistics of Belarus” magazine

official website of Belstat: www.belstat.gov.by

site of the International Monetary Fund in accordance with the Special Data Dissemination Standard of the International Monetary Fund

Data provided by government agencies, other entities, academic institutions, international organizations, individuals

Seasonally adjusted gross domestic product by using

X-12-ARIMA

СЕЗОННАЯ КОРРЕКТИРОВКА ВАЛОВОГО ВНУТРЕННЕГО ПРОДУКТА

Seasonally adjusted gross domestic product

Seasonally adjusted gross domestic product excluding agriculture

THANK YOU!