Color Plates xvii

Changes in potential productivity of rice

-500 0 +500 (kg/ha)

Tra

nspo

rtA

gric

ultu

re

Indu

stry

Com

mer

ce

Rur

alUrban

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Ave

rage

cos

t fo

r C

O2

redu

ctio

n, y

uan/

t-C

Rate of accumulated CO2 reduction (%)

Color Plate 1. Roadmap of AIM family (see Fig. 1 of Chap. 1)

AIM/Emission

AIM/Database (Chap. 14)

GDP loss due to CO2 andsolid waste constraintswithout countermeasures

Mitigation fromenvironmental investment

Mitigation fromtechnological improvement

Mitigation from taxation policyMitigation from green consumption

GDP loss after mitigation

GDP loss from reference case(Trillion yen at 1995 prices)

1.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2010

2007

Year

Mitigation of GDP loss

WithoutCounterMeasures

Global CO2 emissions and reduction for stabilization

Recycling Society

10

20

30

40

0

10

20

30

40

0

Fossil Intensive Society

550 ppm

750 ppm

2000 2050 21002000 2050 2100 2000 2050 21002000 2050 2100

10

20

30

40

0

10

20

30

40

0

Gt-C

GDP change by the Kyoto with and without USA

-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1

00.1

Japan USA EU FSU

GD

P ch

ange

(%

)

Rate of accumulated CO2 reduction (%)

2 2030

Mt-CO2

5102040

<3

>21

CO2

-500 0 +500 (kg/ha)

CO2 emission per capita(t-C/capita)

AIM/Country

AIM/GlobalAIM/CGE-LinkageAIM/Ecosystem

AIM/LocalInventory activity

Change in potential productivity of rice

CO2 emission in 2030

GDP loss from reference case(Trillion yen at 1995 prices)

AIM family (Chap. 1)

1995

2005

2015

2025

2032

Cam

bodi

aB

huta

nL

aos

Solo

mon

Isl

ands

Kir

ibat

iB

angl

ades

hV

anua

tuPa

pua

New

Gui

nea

Paki

stan

Nep

alM

yanm

arV

ietn

amSr

i Lan

kaM

aldi

ves

Sam

oaIn

done

sia

Taj

ikis

tan

Phil

ippi

nes

Indi

a Fiji

Kyr

gyz

Rep

ubli

cFr

ench

Pol

ynes

iaT

onga

Chi

naT

hail

and Iran

New

Zea

land

Uzb

ekis

tan

Mon

goli

aM

alay

sia

Japa

nT

urkm

enis

tan

Nau

ru　

　　

　　

Tai

wan

Aus

tral

iaK

orea

, Dem

Kor

ea, R

epK

azak

hsta

nPa

lau

Sing

apor

eB

rune

i

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Year

AIM/Trend (Chap. 13)

GDP change by the Kyoto with USA and without USA

AIM/Climate Atmospheric model UD Ocean model Radiative forcing model GCM,RegCM interface

AIM/CGE (Energy) (Chap. 4)

AIM/Impact AIM/Land AIM/Water AIM/Agriculture AIM/Vegetation AIM/Health etc. (Chap. 3, 12)

AIM/Material (Chap. 11)

AIM/Emission-Linkage AIM/Bottom-up AIM/Energy-Economics AIM/Land-Equilibrium (Chap. 2)

AIM/Enduse (Chap. 5 – 10)

xviii Color Plates

Color Plate 2. Framework of the AIM/Impact model (see Fig. 1 of Chap. 3)

-500 0 +500 (kg/ha)

Color Plate 3. Change in the potential productivity of rice from 1990 to 2050 under the climatic conditions projected using the CCSR/NIES GCM (see Fig. 4 of Chap. 3)

OCEANEnergy and carbon budget of ocean

HYDROSurface water balance Routing module

WATERSupply infrastructures Demand

ENERGYEnergy technology and resources

CLIMATERadiation, energy balance, temperature and sea level rise

FOODProduction and demand

LANDLand-use allocation and GHGs emission

CGESupply and demand equilibrium of goods, energy, water, land and labor

VEGVegetation dynamics

POP Population, fertility and mobility

HEALTHHealth impacts of environmental change

ENVEnvironmental pressure and counter-measure

CYCLEChemistry of GHGs

AIM/EmissionAIM/Emission

AIM/ClimateAIM/Climate

AIM/ImpactAIM/Impact

Tropical rainforestSubtropical forestDry tropical forestSavannaHot desert

Cool desertSteppeWarm temperate forestCool temperate forestChaparral

Cool forestBoreal forestTundraPolar desert

Cells are classified to a forest type under the present climate and to a non-forest type under the future climate (diminishment of forest).

Cells are classified to a forest type under the present climate and to a different forest type under the future climate, but the shift cannot occur smoothly (replacement of the forest type with the risk of diminishment).

Cells are classified to a non-forest type under the present climate and to a forest type under the future climate, but the shift cannot occur smoothly.

Color Plate 4. Forest collapse under low, mid, high-climate change scenarios (IS92c emissions with low climate sensitivity, IS92a emissions with medium climate sensitivity, IS92e emissions with high climate sensitivity) (see Fig. 6 of Chap. 3)

IS92c scenario with low climate sensitivity

IS92a scenario with medium climate sensitivity

IS92e scenario with high climate sensitivity

Color Plates xix

xx Color Plates

Color Plate 5. Expansion of the area affected by malaria (Upper: current climate, Lower: 2xCO2 climate change, GCM: GFDL q-flux equilibrium experiment) (see Fig. 8 of Chap. 3)

Color Plate 6. Water demand per unit area in 1990 and 2050 (see Fig. 11 of Chap. 3)

0.3 3 30 300 (mm/year)

Present (1xCO2)

Expected future (2xCO2)

Present (1xCO2)

low receptivity endemic

1990

2050

Color Plates xxi

Color Plate 7. Changes in runoff calculated based on the results of the transient experiments of the CCC, ECHAM4, and CCSR/NIES climate models (mean runoff for the 10 years from 2050 to 2059 minus mean runoff for the 10 years from 1980 to 1989) (see Fig. 12 of Chap. 3)

-100 -10 0 10 100 (mm/year)

CCC

ECHAM4

CCSR/NIES

xxii Color Plates

Color Plate 8. Change in winter wheat productivity from 1990 to 2100 (see Fig. 16 of Chap. 4) 　

Color Plate 9. Change in population living in area at high malaria risk from 1990 to 2100 (see Fig. 18 of Chap. 4)

Reference

WRE550

WGI 550

MID 550

-100

-90

-80

-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

0

Cha

nge

of p

rodu

ctiv

ity

(%)

Scenario

Myanm

ar

Cambodia

Malaysia

Philippines

Thailand

Lao PDR

Bangladesh

Nepal

Viet N

am

Sri Lanka

India

Indonesia

Bhutan

Taiwan

Korea D

PR

China

Korea Republic

Japan

China

Nepal

Taiwan

Indonesia

Sri Lanka

Thailand

Myanm

ar

India

Viet N

am

Bhutan

Lao PDR

Korea D

PR

Korea Republic

Japan

Bangladesh

Cambodia

Malaysia

Philippines

Reference

WRE550

WGI 550

MID 550

0

50

100

150

200

250

Cha

nge

of m

alar

ia r

isk

(%)

Scenario

c

Color Plate 11. SO2 emission intensity in China for 2010 　 (see Fig. 6 of Chap. 5)

Color Plate 10. CO2 emission intensity in China for 2010 (see Fig. 5 of Chap. 5)

0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00800.00900.001000.001100.001200.001300.001400.001500.00>=1600.00

0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500

≧1,600<t-C/km2>

0.001000.002000.003000.004000.005000.006000.007000.008000.009000.0010000.0011000.0012000.0013000.0014000.0015000.00>=16000.00

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,000

≧16,000<kg-SO2/km2>

Color Plates xxiii

2000

2030

0

5

10

15

20

40

15 - 18

18 - 21

> 21

12 -15 9 - 12 6 - 9 3 - 6 < 3

Million Ton Million Ton

Color Plate 12. Regional distribution of CO2 emissions in India for 2000 and 2030 in reference scenario (see Fig. 4 of Chap. 6)Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources.

Mt-CO2 Mt-CO2

xxiv Color Plates

Color Plate 13. Regional distribution of SO2 emissions in India for 2000 and 2030 in reference scenario (see Fig. 5 of Chap. 6) Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources.

2000

2030

0

0.03

0.07

0.11

0 .15

0.20

0.044- 0.053

0.053- 0.060

> 0.060

0.035- 0.044 0.026- 0.035 0.017- 0.026 0.01- 0.017 < 0.01

Million Ton Million Ton Mt-SO2 Mt-SO2

Color Plates xxv

xxvi Color Plates

Reference Scenario

Million Ton

18 – 21

> 21

15 – 18 12 – 15 9 – 12 6 – 9 3 – 6 < 3

550 ppmv Scenario

Coal Power Plant Gas Power Plant

Color Plate 14. Comparison of CO2 emissions from large power plants in reference and 550 ppmv stabilization scenarios in 2030 (see Fig. 7 of Chap. 6)

Mt-CO2

550 ppmv scenario

Reference scenario

Coal power plant Gas power plant

Korea

ThailandThailandThailand

China India Japan

Narrative Scenarios

Input

Renewable Energy

Population Growth

Economic Growth

Energy EfficiencyImprovement

Narrative scenarios

Input

Renewable energy

Population growth

Economic growth

Energy efficiencyimprovements

past economic trend

past environmentaltrend

AIM-TREND

past economic trendpast economic trend

past environmentaltrendpast environmentaltrend

AIM/TrendDiscussion

Future EstimatesFutureeconomic trend

Futureenvironmental trend

Future estimatesFutureeconomic trendFutureeconomic trend

Futureenvironmental trendFutureenvironmental trend

Out

put

Asian QuantitativeScenarios Future

economic trend

Futureenvironmental trend

Asian quantitativescenarios Future

economic trendFutureeconomic trend

Futureenvironmental trendFutureenvironmental trend

Feedback

Scenario generation & AIM/Trend

Korea

ThailandThailandThailand

China India Japan

Narrative Scenarios

Input

Renewable Energy

Population Growth

Economic Growth

Energy EfficiencyImprovement

Narrative scenarios

Input

Renewable energy

Population growth

Economic growth

Energy efficiencyimprovements

past economic trend

past environmentaltrend

AIM-TREND

past economic trendpast economic trend

past environmentaltrendpast environmentaltrend

AIM/TrendDiscussion

Future EstimatesFutureeconomic trend

Futureenvironmental trend

Future estimatesFutureeconomic trendFutureeconomic trend

Futureenvironmental trendFutureenvironmental trend

Out

put

Asian QuantitativeScenarios Future

economic trend

Futureenvironmental trend

Asian quantitativescenarios Future

economic trendFutureeconomic trend

Futureenvironmental trendFutureenvironmental trend

Feedback

Scenario generation & AIM/Trend

Color Plate 15. Framework of AIM/Impact [Country] (see Fig. 1 of Chap. 12)

Color Plate 16. Concept of AIM/Trend model (see Fig. 1 of Chap. 13)

Global GIS data GIS data scaled down for national scale assessment

Input GIS data for impact assessment models

GIS

tool for trimm

ing away

ex-focused areaG

IS tool for spatial interpolation

GIS

tool for input data developm

ent(S

cenario Creator)

Socioeconomic and GHG emissions scenarios

GIS output data of the impact assessment model

Penman-PET modelThornthwaite-PET model

Potential crop productivity modelSurface runoff model

River discharge modelWater demand model

Malarial potential modelHoldridge vegetation classificationKoeppen vegetation classificationVegetation shift potential model

Model parameters

Interface tool for visualizing data on ID

RID

I

Interface tool for visualizing data on plain spatial data view

er

GIS

tool for sub-national aggregation

PREF.ID NAT REG PREF VALUE392010100 J PN Hokkaido Hokkaido 12392020100 J PN Tohoku Aomori -10392020400 J PN Tohoku Akita -5392020200 J PN Tohoku Iwate -5392020400 J PN Tohoku Akita 2392020500 J PN Tohoku Yamagata 3392020300 J PN Tohoku Miyagi -13392040100 J PN Hokuriku Niigata -2392020600 J PN Tohoku Fukushima 8392040300 J PN Hokuriku Ishikawa -6392030200 J PN Kanto Tochigi -7392030300 J PN Kanto Gumma 15392050200 J PN Chubu Nagano 17392040200 J PN Hokuriku Toyama 12392030100 J PN Kanto Ibaraki -1

GIS data for sub-national spatial aggregation

(1) Development of input GIS data for model (2) Impact/A

daptationassessm

ent

(3) Analysis of GIS data and outputs

Color Plates xxvii

xxviii Color Plates

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(Mt-

C)

Historical data

Market First

Policy First

Security First

Sustainability First

Color Plate 17. Energy related CO2 emissions in the Asia-Pacific region (see Fig. 9of Chap. 13)

Color Plate 18. Energy related CO2 emissions in sub-regions of the Asia-Pacific region (see Fig. 10 of Chap. 13)

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

South East AsiaSouth Asia East Asia Central Asia

Cha

nge

in e

nerg

y-re

late

d C

O2

emis

sion

sby

203

2 re

lati

ve to

200

2 (%

)

Afghanistan Bangladesh

Iran Maldives

Nepal Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Brunei Cambodia

Indonesia Lao

Malaysia Myanmar

Philippines Singapore

Thailand Vietnam

China Korea, Dem

Korea, RepJapan

Mongolia Taiwan, China

Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic

TurkmenistanTajikistan

Uzbekistan

Australia New Zealand

Fiji Kiribati

Nauru Palau

Papua New Guinea French Polynesia

Tonga Vanuatu

Samoa Solomon Islands

IndiaBhutan

South Asia

Southeast Asia

East Asia

Central Asia

ANZ and South Pacific

MK

PO SC SU

MK: Market FirstPO: Policy First

SC: Security FirstSU: Sustainability First

MK

PO SC SU MK

PO SC SU MK

PO SC SU

MK

PO SC SU

ANZ andSouth Pacific

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

South East AsiaSouth Asia East Asia Central Asia

Cha

nge

in e

nerg

y-re

late

d C

O2

emis

sion

sby

203

2 re

lati

ve to

200

2 (%

)

Afghanistan Bangladesh

Iran Maldives

Nepal Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Brunei Cambodia

Indonesia Lao

Malaysia Myanmar

Philippines Singapore

Thailand Vietnam

China Korea, Dem

Korea, RepJapan

Mongolia Taiwan, China

Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic

TurkmenistanTajikistan

Uzbekistan

Australia New Zealand

Fiji Kiribati

Nauru Palau

Papua New Guinea French Polynesia

Tonga Vanuatu

Samoa Solomon Islands

IndiaBhutan

South Asia

Southeast Asia

East Asia

Central Asia

ANZ and South Pacific

Afghanistan Bangladesh

Iran Maldives

Nepal Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Brunei Cambodia

Indonesia Lao

Malaysia MyanmarMalaysia Myanmar

Philippines Singapore

Thailand Vietnam

China Korea, Dem

Korea, RepJapan

Mongolia Taiwan, China

Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic

TurkmenistanTajikistan

Uzbekistan

Australia New Zealand

Fiji Kiribati

Nauru Palau

Papua New Guinea French Polynesia

Tonga Vanuatu

Samoa Solomon Islands

IndiaBhutan

South Asia

Southeast Asia

East Asia

Central Asia

ANZ and South Pacific

MK

PO SC SUMK

PO SC SU

MK: Market FirstPO: Policy First

SC: Security FirstSU: Sustainability First

MK

PO SC SUMK

PO SC SU MK

PO SC SUMK

PO SC SU MK

PO SC SUMK

PO SC SU

MK

PO SC SUMK

PO SC SU

ANZ andSouth Pacific

Laos

Color Plates xxix

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

SO2

emis

sion

s (M

t-S

O2)

Historical data

Market First

Policy First

Security First

Sustainability First

Color Plate 19. Energy related SO2 emissions in the Asia-Pacific region (see Fig. 11 of Chap. 13)

Color Plate 20. Energy related SO2 emissions in sub-regions of the Asia-Pacific region (see Fig. 12 of Chap. 13)

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

South East AsiaSouth Asia East Asia Central AsiaANZ and

South Pacific

MK: Market FirstPO: Policy First

SC: Security FirstSU: Sustainability First

MK

PO SC SU MK

PO SC SU MK

PO SC SU MK

PO SC SU

MK

PO SC SU

Cha

nge

in e

nerg

y-re

late

dSO

2em

issi

ons

by 2

032

rela

tive

to 2

002

(%)

Afghanistan Bangladesh

Iran Maldives

Nepal Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Brunei Cambodia

Indonesia Lao

Malaysia Myanmar

Philippines Singapore

Thailand Vietnam

China Korea, Dem

Korea, RepJapan

Mongolia Taiwan, China

Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic

TurkmenistanTajikistan

Uzbekistan

Australia New Zealand

Fiji Kiribati

Nauru Palau

Papua New Guinea French Polynesia

Tonga Vanuatu

Samoa Solomon Islands

IndiaBhutan

South Asia

Southeast Asia

East Asia

Central Asia

ANZ and South Pacific

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

South East AsiaSouth Asia East Asia Central AsiaANZ and

South Pacific

MK: Market FirstPO: Policy First

SC: Security FirstSU: Sustainability First

MK

PO SC SUMK

PO SC SU MK

PO SC SUMK

PO SC SU MK

PO SC SUMK

PO SC SU MK

PO SC SUMK

PO SC SU

MK

PO SC SUMK

PO SC SU

Cha

nge

in e

nerg

y-re

late

dSO

2em

issi

ons

by 2

032

rela

tive

to 2

002

(%)

Afghanistan Bangladesh

Iran Maldives

Nepal Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Brunei Cambodia

Indonesia Lao

Malaysia Myanmar

Philippines Singapore

Thailand Vietnam

China Korea, Dem

Korea, RepJapan

Mongolia Taiwan, China

Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic

TurkmenistanTajikistan

Uzbekistan

Australia New Zealand

Fiji Kiribati

Nauru Palau

Papua New Guinea French Polynesia

Tonga Vanuatu

Samoa Solomon Islands

IndiaBhutan

South Asia

Southeast Asia

East Asia

Central Asia

ANZ and South Pacific

Afghanistan Bangladesh

Iran Maldives

Nepal Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Brunei Cambodia

Indonesia Lao

Malaysia MyanmarMalaysia Myanmar

Philippines Singapore

Thailand Vietnam

China Korea, Dem

Korea, RepJapan

Mongolia Taiwan, China

Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic

TurkmenistanTajikistan

Uzbekistan

Australia New Zealand

Fiji Kiribati

Nauru Palau

Papua New Guinea French Polynesia

Tonga Vanuatu

Samoa Solomon Islands

IndiaBhutan

South Asia

Southeast Asia

East Asia

Central Asia

ANZ and South Pacific

Laos

xxx Color Plates

Sum of Value Energy_Device Removal

CK1 CK2 COLBLR

Year NON NON NON SFGD

_bas e 4,700 ,000 1 ,300 ,000 24 ,528 ,000 1 ,752 ,000

1995 4 ,700 ,000 1 ,300 ,000 24 ,528 ,000 1 ,752 ,000

1996 6 ,000 ,000 26 ,134 ,533 1 ,664 ,400

1997 6 ,180 ,000 27 ,624 ,834 1 ,584 ,466

1998 6 ,365 ,400 29 ,010 ,707 1 ,510 ,876

1999 6 ,556 ,362 30 ,301 ,836 1 ,442 ,662

2000 6 ,753 ,053 31 ,506 ,418 1 ,379 ,091

2001 6 ,955 ,645 32 ,631 ,543 1 ,319 ,587

2002 7 ,164 ,314 33 ,683 ,447 1 ,263 ,694

2003 7 ,379 ,244 34 ,667 ,680 1 ,211 ,035

2004 7 ,600 ,621 35 ,589 ,232 1 ,161 ,300

2005 7 ,828 ,640 36 ,452 ,618 1 ,114 ,226

AIM/Enduse

Database

AIM/EnduseGAMS program

AIM/Enduse GIS System (IDRISI 32)

AIM/Enduse Database System (MS Access)

AIM/Enduse GAMS Program (GAMS)

User interface

Display of output with pivot table and

chart

User

Input file of GAMS Program

Output file ofGAMS Program

Input fileof GIS System

Export moduleExport

module

Import module

0.0012.50

25.0037.50

50.0062.50

75.0087.50

100.00112.50

125.00137.50

150.00162.50

175.00187.50

>=200.00

0.00

12.50

25.00

37.50

50.00

62.50

75.00

87.50

100.00

112.50

125.00

137.50

150.00

162.50

175.00

187.50

>=200.00

0.006.2512.5018.7525.0031.2537.5043.7550.0056.2562.5068.7575.0081.2587.5093.75>=100.00

MS Access: Database management software designed by Microsoft CorporationGAMS: General algebraic modeling system designed by GAMS Development CorporationIDRISI 32: Geographical information system and image processing software designed by Clark Labs, Clark University

Color Plate 21. AIM/Enduse database system, optimization system and GIS (see Fig. 1.4 of Part IV)

Color Plate 22. User interface for technology table (see Appendix C of Part IV )

Color Plate 23. Display of output with pivot table and chart (see Appendix C of Part IV)

Color Plates xxxi

Color Plate 24. The Seventh International AIM Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Tsukuba, Japan

Color Plate 25. Photos from the AIM Training Workshop, 5-6 September 2002, Tsukuba, Japan

xxxii Color Plates