colorado department of labor and employment looking to colorado’s future alexandra hall director,...

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Looking to Colorado’s Future

Alexandra HallDirector, Labor Market Information

What we’ll cover today:

Basic Industry/Occupation Concepts

Current economic climate

Forecasting Process

Hot Industries

Hot Occupations

0

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Colorado Employment and Recessions 1939 - 2005

"A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy lasting more than a few months."

Industry

Individual companies conducting similar business

Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing

Industry

Individual companies conducting similar business

Tourism

Hi-Tech

Bio-Tech

Occupation

Work in which people engage to earn a living

Accountant Secretary Flight Attendant Surgeon Software Engineer Network Analyst

Occupation

Work in which people engage to earn a living

Customer Service Representative

Administrative Assistant

What is Labor Market Information?

Industry Employment & Wages

Occupation Employment & Wages

Demand for Workers

– Current Demand

– Future Demand

Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado through 2012

Employment Outlook: 2002-12Projections Process

Labor force– Economic growth– Industry employment– Occupational employment

Population growth rates

1.41.7

1.31.0 0.9 1.0 1.1

1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000

2002-12

Annual rates of change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

projected

The civilian labor force will grow by 1.1 percent annually from 2002 to 2012.

1.1

1.7

2.6

1.6

1.1 1.1 1.1

1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 1992-02 2002-12

Annual rates of change

projected


The size of the civilian labor force ages 55-64 will increase significantly

Projected numerical change, 2002-12


2,011

3,210

-2,493

4,429

8,308

1,94165 and over

55 to 64

45 to 54

35 to 44

25 to 34

16 to 24

Labor force participation rate by gender


Percent, 1952-2002 and projected 2002-2012

86.4

73.1

33.9

61.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Total

Men

Women

projected

Labor force participation of men andwomen age 55 and older, 1948-2004

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Men

Women

Percent


21.7

12.014.3

8.7

14.3

10.0

1982-92 1992-2002 2002-12

Women Men

Women’s labor forcegrowth outpaces men’s

Percent change


projected

Women’s share of the labor force continues to edge up

4345 47

48

57 55 54 53

1982 1992 2002 2012 1982 1992 2002 2012

Women Men


Percent of labor force

projectedprojected

Labor force growth rates of minorities outpaces whites

51

33

19

912

Asian Hispanic Black White Total

Percent change, 2002-12


Workers by Race82.9 80.3

12.4 14.7 11.4 12.2

4.1 5.51.5 2.0

White Hispanic Black Asian All other

2002 2012


Percent of labor force

Colorado

3,294.394

4,335.540

5,137.928

1,978.461

2,723.376

3,442.908

1990 2000 2012,Projected

1990 2000 2012,Projected

Population Labor Force

32%

18%

38%

23%

1990-2000 2000-2012 1990-2000 2000-2012

Population Labor Force

Colorado


Labor forceEconomic growth

– Industry employment– Occupational employment

A healthy economy isprojected through 2012

3.0

5.2

2.1


Selected economic variables

GDP(annual growthrate, projected

2002-12)

Unemploymentrate, 2012(assumed)

Productivity(annual growthrate, projected

2002-12)

The 2002-12 projections assume a 3.0 percent real GDP growth rate

4.04.4

3.23.0

3.43.2 3.0

1949-1959

1959-1969

1969-1979

1979-1989

1989-2000

1992-2002

2002-2012

Average annual rate of change

projected

Annualized growth rates of labor productivity during recessions

0.5

2.7

0.1

-1.2

-0.1-1.0

4.4

60Q2-61Q1

69Q4-70Q4

73Q4-75Q1

80Q1-80Q3

81Q3-82Q4

90Q3-91Q1

01Q1-01Q4

Average annual rate of change

5.5

3.5

5.85.3

4.0

5.2

1959 1969 1979 1989 2000 2012,projected

Percent

The 2002-12 projections assume a5.2 percent unemployment rate


Labor forceEconomic growthIndustry output and employment

– Occupational employment

Nationally, total employment is projected to increase by 4.8 percent or 21.3 million. Nonfarm wage and salary employment is

projected to increase by 21.6 million

Millions of jobs

144.0

165.3

131.1

152.7

2002 2012, 2002 2012,projected projected

Total employment

Nonfarm wage and

salary employment


Total employment is projected to increase by23 percent or 551,600.

Nonfarm wage and salary employment is projected to increase by 272,000

2.36

2.91

2.19

2.72

2002 2012, Projected

Total employmentNonfarm wage and salary employment

Millions of jobs

Colorado

Service-providing industriescontinue to lead employment growth

22.0 22.6 23.3

87.5

108.5

129.3

1992 2002 2012 1992 2002 2012

Goods-producing

Service-providing

projected projected


Millions of nonfarm wage and salary jobs

159302

376

444

685688

866951

965

998

1,065

1,290

2,0892,498

3,880

Mining

Utilities

Federal government

Other services

Transportation and warehousing

Leisure and hospitality

Construction

Wholesale trade

Information

State and local government

Retail trade

Education and health services

Professional and business services

Financial activities

Manufacturing

Manufacturing, financial activities and professional and business services accounted

for nearly half of total output in 2002

Billions of dollarsService ProvidingGoods Producing


512600

1,9223,420

5,0505,6416,1056,732

7,8437,851

11,96915,04715,30716,01016,184

Mining

Utilities

Federal government

Information


Wholesale trade

Other services

Construction


State and local government (ex. educ. and hosp.)


Retail trade

Manufacturing



Education and health services and professional and business services accounted for nearly 40 percent of employment in 2002

Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs

Service ProvidingGoods Producing


50

632

638

914

960

964

1,014

2,082

2,135

2,518

4,866

5,145

Federal Government

Information

Wholesale trade


Other services


Construction

Retail trade


State and local government



Education and health services and professional and business services account for nearly half of

projected total employment growth

Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs, 2002-12

Service Providing

Goods Producing


Three of the 10 fastest-growing detailed industries over thru 2012 are computer

related, two are health related.

43

46

46

46

47

54

55

55

55

68Software publishers

Management, scientific and technical consulting servicesCommunity care facilities for the elderlyComputer systems design and related servicesEmployment services

Vocational rehabilitation services

Ambulatory health care servicesWater, sewage and other systems

Internet services and data processing servicesChild day care services


Percent change

60.4%

61.3%

61.7%

62.0%

65.6%

67.7%

70.6%

77.0%

77.7%

106.2%Community Care Facilities for the Elderly

Internet Publishing & Broadcasting

Veneer, Plywood & Engineered Plywood Manufacturing

Drugs & Druggiiests' Sundries Merchant Wholesalers

Computer Systems Design & Related Services

Support Activities for Road Transportation

Other Non-Metallic Mineral Product Manufacturing

Nonscheduled Air Transportation

Management, Scientific & Technical Consulting Services

Other Ambulatory Health Care Services

Of Colorado’s 10 fastest-growing industries thru 2012 2 are health related, 2 are transportation related and

2 are manufacturing related.

638

670

670

759

1,014

1,229

1,337

1,730

1,764

2,082

Wholesale trade

State and local general government

Ambulatory health care services

Educational services

Construction

Office of health practitioners

Food services and drinking places

State and local government education

Employment services

Retail trade


Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs

The 10 detailed industries with the most new jobs, projected thru 2012

Colorado’s 10 detailed industries with the most new jobs, projected thru 2012

9,275

11,275

13,221

14,369

15,877

21,453

22,540

23,717

24,139

55,912

Other Amusement and Recreation Industries

Offices of Physicians

Limited-Service Eating Places

Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services

Services to Buildings and Dwellings

Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals

General Medical and Surgical Hospitals

Full-Service Restaurants

Computer Systems Design and Related Services

Educational Services

Detailed industries with faster than average employment and output growth

Detailed industries with:– employment growth greater than 14.8%

– and average annual output growth rates greater than the overall average of 3.3%.

These industries accounted for:– 21.3% of employment in 2002– and are projected to account for 45% of

employment growth from 2002-2012

National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment and output growth

If you include industries with:– faster than average employment growth – and average annual output growth of at least 2%

per year:

These industries accounted for:– 38% of employment in 2002– and are projected to account for 65% of

employment growth thru 2012

National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth

greater than 2% per yearManufacturing

– Plastics product manufacturing (128,000)*– Animal slaughtering and processing (80,000)– Architectural and structural metals mfg (77,000)– Pharmaceutical and medicine mfg (68,000)– Other wood product mfg (67,000)– Other general purpose machinery mfg (51,000)– Cement and concrete product mfg (48,000)– Metalworking machinery mfg (34,000)– Veneer, plywood mfg (21,000)– Forging and stamping (18,000)

* Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12

National


greater than 2% per year

Utilities and waste management– Water, sewage and other systems

(23,000)*

Transportation and warehousing– Truck transportation, couriers and messengers

(507,000)– Scenic and sightseeing transportation

(100,000)


National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater

than 2% per yearInformation

– Internet services, data processing (244,000)*– Software publishers (174,000)– Motion picture and sound recording industries

(116,000)

Financial activities– Non-depository credit intermediation (196,000)– Consumer goods and general rental centers (131,000)– Securities, commodity contracts (124,000)– Commercial and industrial machinery rental (41,000)


National


greater than 2% per year

Education and health services – Offices of health practitioners (1,229,000)*– Ambulatory health care services (670,000)– Hospitals (632,000)– Individual, family, community and voc rehab

services (597,000)– Nursing care and residential mental health

facilities (559,000)– Child day care services (382,000)


National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater

than 2% per yearLeisure and hospitality

– Food services and drinking places (1,337,000)*– Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries

(410,000)– Traveler accommodation (293,000)– Performing art companies, promoters, agents,

managers, and independent artists (37,000)– Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions

(24,000)– RV parks, recreational camps, and rooming and boarding

houses (8,000)


National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year

Other services– Religious, grant making and giving services,

and social advocacy organizations (428,000) *– Automotive repair and maintenance (149,000)– Personal care services (144,000)– Other personal services (51,000)– Commercial and industrial equipment (except

automotive and electronic) repair and maintenance (29,000)

State and local government– State and local electric utilities (14,000)


National

1142,179

3,432

9,407

13,679

13,96715,432

17,496

20,127

21,078

23,663

24,01027,700

29,355

35,738

48,249

50,96155,912

61,023

-397Utilities -397

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting

Mining

Management of Companies & Enterprises

Real Estate & Rental & Leasing

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation

Information

Wholesale Trade

Other Services

Construction

Transportation & Warehousing

Manufacturing

Finance & Insurance

Self-Employed and Unpaid Family Workers, P rimary J ob

Government

Administrative, Support, Waste Management & Remediation Services

Accommodation & Food Services

Retail Trade

Educational Services

P rofessional, Scientific & Technical Services

Health Care & Social Assistance

78,480

Colorado Employment Growth thru 2012

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year

Colorado

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (61,023)– Computer Systems Design and Related Services (24,139)– Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services (7,658)– Specialized Design Services (977)– Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services (14,369)– Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (3,866)– Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services (3,456)– Scientific Research and Development Services (2,518)

ColoradoDetailed industries with faster than average

employment growth greater than 2.3% per yearHealth Care & Social Assistance (78,480)

–Community Care Facilities for the Elderly (7,758) –Other Ambulatory Health Care Services (1,811)–Home Health Care Services (4,898)–Outpatient Care Centers (5,082)–Individual and Family Services (5,670)–General Medical and Surgical Hospitals (22,540)–Offices of Physicians (11,275)–Offices of Other Health Practitioners (3,225)–Child Day Care Services (4,329)–Offices of Dentists (4,039)–Vocational Rehabilitation Services (1,033)–Nursing Care Facilities (4,775)

Colorado

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation ( 13,679 )– Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers (381)– Promoters of Performing Arts, Sports, and Similar Events (440)– Gambling Industries (1,775)– Other Amusement and Recreation Industries (9,275)– Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institution (552)– Amusement Parks and Arcades (537)– Spectator Sports (480)


Colorado

Transportation & Warehousing (21,078)–Support Activities for Road Transportation (784)–Nonscheduled Air Transportation (595)–Local Messengers and Local Delivery (586)–Freight Transportation Arrangement (847)–Warehousing and Storage (4,146)–Scheduled Air Transportation (5,145)–Urban Transit Systems (225)–Specialized Freight Trucking (2,605)–Interurban and Rural Bus Transportation (137)


Administrative, Support, Waste Management & Remediation Services 35,738 – Services to Buildings and Dwellings 15,877 – Investigation and Security Services 4,089 – Business Support Services 5,625 – Waste Collection 866 – Other Support Services 1,735

Educational Services 55,912

ColoradoDetailed industries with faster than average

employment growth greater than 2.3% per year


Labor forceEconomic growthIndustry employmentOccupational employment

There are 22 major occupation groups

Of these, 14 are projected to grow faster than average. Together, they:

– Accounted for 45% of employment in 2002

– And are projected to account for 65% of employment change thru 2012

National

Major occupational groups projected to grow faster than average (14.8%)

21

25

25

26

26

35

35

Business and financialoperations

Protective service

Education, training andlibrary

Healthcare practitioners

Community and socialservices

Healthcare support

Computer andmathematical

Percent change, projected thru 2012


Major occupational groups projected to grow faster than average (14.8%)

15

16

16

16

17

17

21

Construction and extraction

Food preparation andserving

Legal

Building and groundscleaning and maintenance

Art, design, media

Life, physical and socialscience

Personal care and service



Major occupational groups projected to grow slower than average (14.8%)

3

3

7

9

12

13

13

14

Production

Farming, fishing, and forestry

Office and administrative support

Architecture and engineering

Management

Sales and related

Transportation and material moving

Installation, maintenance, and repair



11 major occupations are projected to have a net employment increase of more than 1 million


Thousands of jobs, projected thru 2012

1,051

1,096

1,143

1,162

1,221

1,282

1,607

1,613

1,708

1,971

2,109

Computer and mathematical


Healthcare support

Business and financial operations

Management


Food preparation and serving related


Healthcare practitioners

Sales and related

Education, training and library

Percent change projected to be greater than average (14.8%)Percent change projected to be less than average

.8 1.3

1.1 1.5

3.0

1.3 2.2

2.4 2.9

2.0 4.9

1.6 5.9

6.5 5.3

5.3 7.6

Farming, fishing, and forestry

Installation, maintenance, and repair


Production


Management, business, and financial

Sales and related


Professional and related

Service

Change in employment

Net replacement needs

Job openings from replacement needs exceed those from employment growth


Millions of jobs, projected thru 2012

13.0

11.8

7.5

6.9

5.3

3.5

2.5

3.4

.3

2.1

Six of the ten fastest growing detailed occupations are health related, three are computer related


45

45

46

46

47

48

49

49

57

Medical assistants

Network systems and data communications analysts

Social and human service assistants

Home health aides

Medical records and health information technicians

Physical therapist aides

Computer software engineers, applications

Computer software engineers, systems software

Physical therapist assistants

59

Physicians assistants


Top ten occupations generally requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher that are projected to

grow faster than average, by earnings2002 average annual earnings

$86,110

$86,280

$87,170

$90,440

$95,440

$105,890

$107,430

$122,230

$134,960

$151,153Physicians and surgeons

Chief executives

Podiatrists

Lawyers

Optometrists

Computer/information system mgrs

Marketing managers

Health diagnosing and treating

Sales managers

Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers


Top ten occupations generally requiring an associate degree that are projected to grow

faster than average, by earnings2002 average annual earnings

$39,380

$40,590

$40,700

$42,320

$43,280

$49,840

$52,260

$57,790

$57,960

$60,110Radiation therapists

All other computer specialists

Nuclear medicine technologists

Registered nurses

Diagnostic medical sonographers

Forensic science technicians

Computer support specialists

Respiratory therapists

Paralegal and legal assistants

Dental hygienists


Top ten occupations generally requiring long-term on-the-job training that are projected

to grow faster than average, by earnings2002 average annual earnings

$42,630

$42,820

$43,120

$43,390

$43,750

$43,910

$45,750

$48,240

$50,460

$53,549Elevator installers and repairers

Flight attendants

Transit and railroad police

Electricians

Fine artists (painters, sculptors, illustrators)

Police and sheriff patrol officers

All other media and communication workers

Actors

Plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters

Musicians and singers


Top ten occupations generally requiring moderate-term on-the-job training that are projected to grow

faster than average, by earnings

2002 average annual earnings


$35,610

$35,700

$36,350

$37,580

$37,620

$39,530

$40,550

$42,350

$51,130

Sales reps, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific

Sales reps, wholesale and mfg, non technical and scientific

Tapers

All other communication equipment workers

Sheet metal workers

All other mechanics, installers and repairers

Drywall and ceiling tile installers

Painters, transportation equipment

Hazardous materials removal workers

All other sales and related

$63,4600

Colorado computer and mathematical occupations will continue to grow at the

highest rate

30.2%

29.6%

29.1%

28.9%

28.5%

27.6%

25.4%

25.1%

24.5%

35.6%

39.1%

40.9%

41.5%Computer & Mathematical

Healthcare Support

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical

Education, Training, & Library

Protective Services

Community & Social Services

Personal Care & Service

Business & Financial Operations

Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance

Life, Physical & Social Science

Management

Architecture & Engineering

Food Preparation & Serving Related

-20

-30

-40

-80

-120

-150

-160

-180

-190

-230

-240

-290

-300

-470

-630

Radio Mechanics

Communications Equipment Operators, All Other

Nuclear Engineers

Meter Readers, Utilities

Prepress Technicians and Workers

Bindery Workers

Order Clerks

Travel Agents

Brokerage Clerks

Loan Interviewers and Clerks

Data Entry Keyers

Telemarketers

Computer Operators

Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers

Word Processors and Typists

Source: Colorado Labor Market Information

Colorado most job losses 2002-2012

70%

8%

22%

68%

8%

24%

2002 2012

In Colorado expect a slight increase in the proportion of jobs requiring

Bachelor's degrees or higher

896 thousand jobs

683 thousand jobs

1,937 thousand jobs1,614 thousand

jobs

168,900

83,660

31,270

39,510

22,580

30,780

105,190

29,010

8,400

10,896

5,510 First professional degree

Doctoral degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experienc

Bachelor's degree

Associate degree

Postsecondary vocational training

Work experience in a related occupation

Long-term on-the-job training

Moderate-term on-the-job training

Short-term on-the-job training

Bachelor's degree or higherPost-secondary education less than B.A.Work related training

In Colorado, about 30% of job growthwill be from positions requiring a

post-secondary education

80

80

90

120

170

180

190

200

210

250

290

300

340

500

1420

Advertising and Promotions Managers

Vocational Education Teachers, Secondary School

Education Administrators, Postsecondary

Human Resources Managers

Marketing Managers

Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary School

Chief Executives

Administrative Services Managers

Medical and Health Services Managers

Engineering Managers

Computer and Information Systems Managers

Sales Managers

Financial Managers

Management Analysts

General and Operations Managers

Source: Colorado Labor Market Information

Most job openings: Bachelor’s degree or higher 2002-2012

Web sites

• Colorado Labor Market Informationhttp://www.coworkforce.com/lmi

• Occupational Outlook Handbook http://www.bls.gov/oco/

• Career Guide to Industrieshttp://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/

• Occupational Outlook Quarterlyhttp://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm

For More Information:

303.318.8852

303.318.8870

[email protected]

www.coworkforce.com/lmi

colorado department of labor and employment looking to colorado’s future alexandra hall director,...

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