commercial aviation safety team (cast) plan & metrics
DESCRIPTION
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Plan & Metrics. Agenda. Executive Overview of CAST Progress Historical Background Progress to Date Annual Safety Plan Inclusion of R & D Business model Action Plan Garner support for continued CAST activities. CAST Origin. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Commercial AviationCommercial AviationSafety Team Safety Team
(CAST)(CAST)
Plan & MetricsPlan & Metrics
AgendaAgenda Executive Overview of CAST Progress
Historical Background
Progress to Date Annual Safety Plan
Inclusion of R & D Business model
Action Plan
Garner support for continued CAST activities
CAST OriginCAST Origin
In the U.S., our focus was set by theIn the U.S., our focus was set by theWhite House Commission on Aviation SafetyWhite House Commission on Aviation Safety
1.1 Government and industry should establish a national goal to reduce the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of five within ten years and conduct safety research to support that goal
1.2 The FAA should develop standards for continuous safety improvement, and should target its regulatory resources based on performance against those standards
5.3-2
The National Civil Aviation Review The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) Commission (NCARC)
on Aviation Safety Provided Additional Directionon Aviation Safety Provided Additional Direction
• FAA and the aviation industry must develop a strategic plan to improve safety, with specific priorities based on objective, quantitative analysis of safety information and data
• Government should expand on their programs to improve aviation safety in other parts of the world
5.3-3
In ResponseIn Response
Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies Initiatives were Combined into CAST
Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic Safety Plan Developed
In place and fully supported by Government and Industry with Worldwide Recognition - “CAST”
Historical Part 121 Fatality Risk (1987-2000)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%To
tal
LOC
Flt
CFIT
Fire
/Exp
losio
nRu
nway
Col
lisio
n
LOC
GND
Mid
air
Crew
Inc
Eng-
UCEF
Sys-
Com
p
Turb
ulen
ce
Evac
Fata
lity
Ris
k
Excluding all security events
HUMAN FACTORSIN OPERATIONS &
MAINTENANCE
Carry-on Baggage
Child Restraint
Passenger Interference
CABIN SAFETY
IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS
GENERAL AVIATION
Loss of Control
Weather
Survivability
Aeronautical Decisionmaking
Controlled Flight Into Terrain Approach and
Landing
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Controlled Flight Into Terrain
Loss of Control
Weather
Uncontained Engine Failures
Runway IncursionPassenger Seat Belt Use
Runway Incursions
Safer SkiesSafer Skies
Turbulence
CAST GoalsCAST Goals
Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007
Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate
Industry
Commercial Aviation Commercial Aviation Safety TeamSafety Team
(CAST)(CAST)
Government
*Representing GE and RR
DODFAA
• Aircraft Certification• Flight Standards• System Safety• Air Traffic Operations• Research
NASAICAOJAATCCNATCA
AIAAirbusALPAAPAATANACABoeingP&W*RAAFSFIATAAAPAATACAPFA
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
• Safety enhancement development
• Master safety plan • Enhancement
effectiveness• Future areas of study
CASTCAST• Data analyses
Joint Safety Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT)Analysis Teams (JSAT)
Joint Safety Joint Safety Implementation Implementation
Teams (JSIT)Teams (JSIT)
Joint Implementation Joint Implementation Measurement Data Measurement Data
Analysis Team (JIMDAT)Analysis Team (JIMDAT)
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
CASTCASTA Three-Stage ProcessA Three-Stage Process
Influence Safety Enhancements -
Worldwide
DataAnalysis
Set SafetyPriorities
Achieve consensus on
priorities Integrate into existing work and distribute
Implement Safety Enhancements -
U.S.
Agree onproblems and interventions
Additional Safer Skies ActivitiesAdditional Safer Skies Activities
Although the primary purpose of our briefing focuses on CAST, there are other Safer Skies focus areas:– General Aviation Joint Steering Committee
(JSC)– Cabin Safety
Integrated Strategic Safety PlanIntegrated Strategic Safety Plan Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic
Safety Plan Developed– 46 Prioritized Safety Enhancements– 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies
46 safety enhancements optimized to include those actions with the best effectiveness vs. resource relationships - 22 complete/24 committed and underway
Initially combines short-term “liveware”-based enhancements with transition to design change enhancements long term
Projected 73% Risk Reduction by 2007 (75% by 2020) Foundation for U.S-supported continuous improvements
in worldwide aviation safety
CAST Safety PlanCAST Safety Plan
Completed Safety EnhancementsCompleted Safety Enhancements Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) CFIT Standard Operating Procedures Precision approach implementation (PAI) Vertical Angles –
Increase constant angle approaches Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP) CFIT Crew Resource Management (CRM) training CFIT Prevention training Air Traffic Controller CFIT training PAI-VGSI at runway ends PAI-DME at airports RI SOPs
– Ground Operations (General Aviation)– Tow tug operators– ATC
Completed Safety Enhancements (cont’d)Completed Safety Enhancements (cont’d) Safety Culture
– Industry will include essential safety information in the appropriate airline manuals (i.e., training programs)
– FAA inspectors will utilize the Aircraft Flight Manual (AFM) database– CEO and Director of Safety (DOS) more visible
Maintenance Procedures – FAA published guidance on:
Servicing landing struts Surveillance of maintenance subcontractors Minimum Equipment List (MEL) (covers recurring maintenance events)
– Air Carriers’ Directors of Safety completed internal surveys to verify guidance was being followed
ALAR Flight crew training Uncontained Engine Failures
– FAA issued Airworthiness Directives requiring the Inspection of High-Energy Rotating Parts
Committed Plan ElementsCommitted Plan Elements Policies and Procedures
– Industry will develop/implement Risk Management tools– Industry will develop a process to inform personnel/flight crew of critical safety information– Industry will develop a process to enhance flight crew proficiency – FAA/Industry will develop standard operating procedures for loss of control related accidents
Aircraft Design – FAA will issue guidance on Continuing Airworthiness– FAA will issue guidance on Critical System Maintenance– FAA will amend guidance to include recommendations surrounding autoflight designs for
new type designs– Manufacturers will implement Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades for new type designs (i.e.
interactive checklists)– FAA/JAA will amend guidance to include recommendations regarding Displays and Alerting
Systems for new designs– Manufacturers agree to install Vertical Situation Displays in new aircraft– FAA/JAA will issue amended icing certification criteria for criteria for new airplane designs
not equipped with evaporative systems – Manufacturers agree to install Flight Envelope Protection in new type designs
Committed Plan Elements (cont.)Committed Plan Elements (cont.)
Runway Incursions
– Enhanced airport surveillance equipment
– Standard operating procedures (SOPs)• Ground operations (121/135)• Vehicle operators Clearance readback requirements
– Training• Pilots• ATC
- Enhanced Tower Controller Training- CRM
Committed Plan Elements (cont.)Committed Plan Elements (cont.) Flight Crew Training
– Advanced Maneuvers Training will be provided by all operators
– Industry will incorporate a human factors-related training guide into training programs and SOPs
Precision approach implementation (PAI) FAA and Industry will develop:
– Recommended procedures, displays and training that will enable pilots of commercial aircraft to fly a stabilized vertical path to the runway for all instrument approaches
– Criteria and guidance for reduced landing minima– Laterally and vertical guided approach paths to runway
ends not served by Instrument Landing System (ILS)
CAST R&D PlanCAST R&D Plan CFIT – Synthetic Vision Systems
Develop capabilities that permit flight crews to operate in a day VMC-like environment, regardless of visibility
CFIT – FOQA & ASAP Develop low cost analytical tools (including decision
making) and methods that both large and small operators can apply to FOQA and ASAP information
CFIT – DatalinkDevelop datalink capabilities and systems for automatic digital transmission
CAST R&D Plan (cont’d)CAST R&D Plan (cont’d) CFIT Precision-Like Approach
Conduct research necessary to determine human factors guidelines for design of instrument procedures
ALAR - Health & Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) Conduct research and develop technology for detection, prediction and/or annunciation of impending equipment failures
ALAR – Human FactorsConduct research into correcting and eliminating the underlying reasons/causes for procedural noncompliance.
CAST R&D Plan (cont’d)CAST R&D Plan (cont’d)
LOC – Icing For aircraft that incorporate non-evaporative ice protection systems, develop systems that sense the presence of ice accretion on the aircraft, automatically activate and manage the ice protection systems, and provide the pilot with feedback including the effect on measured aircraft performance, stability, and control
LOC - Envelope Protection -Existing Airplanes Complete study and determine feasibility of modifying existing aircraft to include angle-of-attack / low speed protection (e.g., stick pushers/nudgers, column force ramps/gradients, automatic elevator/stabilizer inputs); thrust asymmetry compensation; and bank angle protection using hard or soft limits
CAST R&D Plan (cont’d)CAST R&D Plan (cont’d)
RI - ATC Procedures -Review Capacity Enhancement Program - LAHSO) Complete review of capacity enhancement programs to determine if they are contributory to runway incursions
RI - RI Visual Aids Enhancement and Automation Technology - Airports - Runway occupancy signal
Develop, evaluate and install a visual signal to indicate runway occupancy to flight crews on final approach to that runway
Resource Cost vs. Risk ReductionResource Cost vs. Risk Reduction
APPROVED PLAN
Completed + Plan (2007
Implementation Level)
Completed + Plan (2020
Implementation Level)
All JSIT Proposed Enhancements
(2020 Implementation
Level)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Res
ourc
e C
ost (
$ M
illio
ns)
Risk ReductionTotal Cost in $ (Millions)
2007 2020
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Ris
k El
imin
ated
by
Safe
ty E
nhan
cem
ents
Completed
Safety Plan BenefitsSafety Plan Benefits
Prediction of a 73% risk reduction that also results in approximately $620 million annual savings to the industry– Current accident cost per flight is approximately
$76 cycle– Implementation of the 46 selected safety
enhancements reduces this cost by $56 per flight cycle
Safety is morally required and is also good for business
Dol
lars
/Flt.
Cyc
Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents100
80
60
40
20
0
Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle
73% Risk reduction
Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or
~ $620 Million Dollars/Year
Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels
2002 2007
Cost SavingsCost Savings
U.S. Hull Loss & Fatal AccidentsPortion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan
(2007 Implementation Values)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Tota
l
LOC
Flt
CFIT
Fire
/Exp
losio
nRu
nway
Col
lisio
n
LOC
GND
Mid
air
Crew
Inc
Eng-
UCEF
Sys-
Com
p
Turb
ulen
ce
Evac
Port
ion
of R
isk
Risk EliminatedRisk Remaining
CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Database – Security events excluded
All Regions Combined Worldwide Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide AccidentsPortion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted Worldwide
(2007 Implementation Values)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%To
tal
CFIT
LOC-
I
SCF-
PP
SCF-
NP ICE
Mid
air
FIRE
-NI
FUEL RI
ARC RE
USO
S
WST
RW
ADRM
OTH
ER-B
IRD
Por
tion
of R
isk
Risk EliminatedRisk Remaining
Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy
The CAST Process is FlexibleThe CAST Process is FlexibleIt may be used to analyze:
• Suggestions from outside industry
• Regulatory initiatives
• Accident lessons learned
• Incident data
• Other
Safety MetricsSafety MetricsPurpose: Measure to determine if program is resulting in desired
risk reduction. Identify issues needing more detailed analysis if desired result is not occurring
Assumption: Measurement of accident rate is not effective means of identifying program success
Concentrate on using reporting systems currently in existence (ex: FOQA, Partnership programs, SDR, NAOMS, etc.)
Direct link is through the problem statements identified by data analysis
–Identify events that reflect the problem–Identify available method for measuring the event frequency–Establish event baseline–Identify trend
Safety Metrics ExamplesSafety Metrics ExamplesSafety Enhancement Indicator
1. Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS)
Reduction in MSAW alertsReduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)
4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7-11,18)
Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approaches
Continuous reduction in selected metrics
21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades – New Type Designs (1-3)
Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below decision height
23. ALAR Flight Crew Training – one project
Continuous reduction in the number of busted approach gates
Continuous reduction in altitude busts
27. LOC Policies and Procedures – Risk Assessments and Management – one project
Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in place
Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems
Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals
CAST Links to International Safety CAST Links to International Safety ActivitiesActivities
Asia/Pacific– ICAO COSCAP
(Cooperative Development of Operational Safety and Continuing Airworthiness)
– NARAST, SARAST, SEARAST
– Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
Europe– JSSI: JAA Safety Strategy
Initiative Central / South America
– PAAST: Pan American Aviation Safety Team
East Africa– African Airlines Safety
Council, AFRASCO West Africa
– ASECNA (Agence pour la Securite de la Navigation Aerienne en Afrique et a Madagascar)
Flight Safety Foundation– CAAG (CFIT & Approach
and Landing Action Group) ICAO
– Global Aviation Safety Plan (GASP)
Future VisionFuture Vision
Execute the CAST-approved Safety Plan
Measure Plan effectiveness and modify Plan based on metrics and results
Continue the development of a proactive incident-based risk mitigation methodology
Improve the CAST process
Expand CAST influence on worldwide safety programs
Integrate safety program with R & D initiatives
Catalog the many on-going safety initiatives that dilute limited resources and identify opportunities for program integration and efficiency improvements
Safety Plan DevelopmentSafety Plan Development
AccidentJSAT’s
AccidentJSIT’s
SafetyEnhancements
CASTPlan
IncidentAnalysisProcess
Metrics JIMDATProcess
EmergingRisk
ChangingRisk
SafetyEnhancements
AviationSystem
ChangesPresent
In MasterFactors
Yes
NoDemographic
ChangesIdentifyHazards
IdentifyFactors
DevelopContributing
Factors(new or
emerging)
SafetyEnhancements
IdentifyHazards
IdentifyFactors
MasterContributing
Factors
6-11-03 CAST-051
CAST Plan Rev.
FAST Hazards
Metrics
Metrics
ConclusionsConclusions CAST has an effective data-driven process CAST has become the model for US Industry/Government
consensus building on safety CAST brings together all the key players
– Air Carriers – Manufacturers – Employee Groups – Government
Predicted 73% risk reduction by 2007 Industry is voluntarily implementing CAST
recommendations CAST is committed to worldwide participation CAST is moving to develop proactive processes to
identify changing and emerging risks