commodities & currencies weekly...

Commodities & Currencies

Weekly Tracker

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Weekly Tracker

ContentsReturns

• Non Agri Commodities

• Currencies

• Agri Commodities

Non-Agri Commodities

• Gold

• Silver

• Copper

• Crude Oil

Monday | February 27 2012

Currencies – DX, Euro, INR

Agri Commodities

• Guar

• Chana

• Black Pepper

• Turmeric

• Jeera

• Soybean

• Refine Soy Oil & CPO

• Sugar

• Potato


Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 27 2012

8.1 7.5 6.4 6.1 5.8

3.8 2.9 2.9

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance


(5.5)(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

Monday | February 27 2012

Commodities Weekly Tracker

2.3

1.8 1.7

0.3

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Currencies Weekly Performance


(0.3)(0.6)

(1.3)

(2.5)(3.0)

(2.5)

(2.0)

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)


16.6

12.5 12.0 10.9

9.3 9.0

6.0

3.9 4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Agri Commodities- Weekly Performance


*Weekly Performance for March contract

3.9

1.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1

(1.3) (1.6)(2.0)

(4.4)(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

GoldWeekly Price Performance

• Spot gold prices rose sharply by around 3 percent in the last week.

• On the MCX, the yellow metal prices rose around 2.1 percent as further

gains were capped due to a stronger Rupee last week.

Factors which influenced gold prices

• Weakness in the US dollar helped rise in gold prices, as a weaker dollar

makes dollar-denominated commodities look attractive for holders of

other currencies.

• Moreover, rally in crude oil prices also fuelled inflation-led demand for

gold which provided further support for prices.

ETF Performance


1,530

1,560

1,590

1,620

1,650

1,680

1,710

1,740

1,770

1,800

26,700

27,000

27,300

27,600

27,900

28,200

28,500

28,800

29,100

29,400

MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

ETF Performance

• Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed

exchange-traded fund, rose around 0.3 percent to 1,284.61 tonnes by

24th February 2012 from the previous level of 1,281.28 tonnes on 17th

February.

Outlook

• We expect gold to trade higher during the week mainly on account of

weakness in the US dollar. Additionally, rising crude oil prices will also

boost inflation-led demand for gold which will further support prices for

the yellow metal.

Weekly Technical Levels

• Buy MCX Gold April between 28460-28430, SL-28140, Target -

29020/29300. (CMP: 28,705)

• Spot Gold : Support 1757/1733 Resistance 1798/1825. (CMP: 1773.90)


MCX- Near Month Gold Futures (1 kg)- Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures - $/oz

76.5

77.5

78.5

79.5

80.5

81.5

82.5

1,530

1,550

1,570

1,590

1,610

1,630

1,650

1,670

1,690

1,710

1,730

1,750

1,770

1,790

Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Gold -$/oz US Dollar Index

SilverWeekly Price Performance

• Silver outperformed gold and surged more than 6.5 percent in the

last week.

• The white metal hit a high of $35.70/oz last week and ended its

trading session at $35.37/oz on Friday.

• On a week-on-week basis, MCX Silver March contract rallied almost

4.5 percent and touched a high of Rs58,888/kg.

Factors that influenced silver prices

• Rise in gold prices

• A weaker dollar.

• Upside in base metals.

ETF performance


26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

35.0

36.0

49,500

50,500

51,500

52,500

53,500

54,500

55,500

56,500

57,500

58,500

59,500

MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

MCX- Near Month Silver Futures (30 kg)- Rs/ kg Comex Silver Futures - $/ozETF performance

• Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver-backed

exchange-traded fund, rose sharply by 1.1 percent to 9,692.96 tonnes

on 24th February 2012 from the previous 9,591.72 tonnes on 17th

February 2012. 9,692.96

Outlook

• We expect silver to trade with a positive bias in this week, mainly

taking cues from rise in gold prices and dollar weakness. Silver being

an industrial metal will also take cues from upside in base metals.


• Buy MCX Silver May between 59450-59350, SL-58600, Target -60800.

(CMP: 58,693)

• Spot Silver: Support 34.50/33.80 Resistance 36.30/37.30. (CMP:

35.50)


MCX- Near Month Silver Futures (30 kg)- Rs/ kg Comex Silver Futures - $/oz

76.5

77.5

78.5

79.5

80.5

81.5

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

35.0

36.0

Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Silver -$/oz US Dollar Index

CopperWeekly Price Performance

• Copper prices rose sharply by almost 4 percent on the LME last week and touched a high

of $8544/tonne.

• On the MCX, Copper February contract gained around 3.2 percent in the last week as

appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains on the domestic platform.

Copper Inventories

• On a weekly basis, copper inventories on the LME warehouses declined sharply by almost

1 percent to 303,500 tonnes on 24th February 2012 from the previous level of 306,375

tonnes on 17th February 2012 .

• Weekly copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange

dropped around 0.5 percent to 216,086 tonnes in the last week.

Factors that influenced copper prices


385

390

395

400

405

410

415

420

425

430

435

440

7,100

7,300

7,500

7,700

7,900

8,100

8,300

8,500

8,700

8,900

LME and MCX Copper Price Performance

LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)• Deficit in the copper market.

• Fall in copper LME as well as Shanghai inventories.

• A weaker dollar.

News

• According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), world refined copper market

experienced a deficit of 382,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2011 as against a

deficit of 460,000 tonnes in the same period a year ago.

Outlook

• Copper is expected to trade higher during the week taking cues from deficit in the copper

market, a weaker dollar and decline in the metal inventories. However, rising crude oil

prices is a matter of concerns for the growth of global economy which could affect

demand for the industrial metals. This may cap sharp gains in the metal prices.


• Buy MCX Copper February between 419-418, SL-414, Target -426/431. (CMP: 418.70)

• LME Copper: Support 8400/8280 Resistance 8625/8750. (CMP: 8508)


LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

7,100

7,300

7,500

7,700

7,900

8,100

8,300

8,500

8,700

8,900

300,000

310,000

320,000

330,000

340,000

350,000

360,000

370,000

380,000

390,000

400,000

LME Copper Price Movement Vs Inventory

Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)

Crude OilWeekly Price Performance

• Nymex crude oil prices increased sharply by 6.1 percent in the last week

and hit a high of $109.95/bbl.

• On the MCX, Crude Oil March contract rose around 5.5 percent last

week as further gains were capped due to a stronger Rupee.

US Energy Department Inventory

• As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report released last week crude

oil inventories increased by 1.63 million barrels to 340.71 million barrels

for the week ending on 17th February, 2012.

• Gasoline stocks fell by 649,000 barrels to 231.53 million barrels and

whereas distillate stockpiles also declined by 208,000 barrels to 143.51

million barrels for the last week.


92.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

100.0

102.0

104.0

106.0

108.0

110.0

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

5300

5400

5500

Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

Factors that influenced crude oil prices

• Building tensions over Iran created supply concerns for oil.

• Positive economic data from the US also supported further upside in the

commodity.

• A sharp decline in Dollar Index (DX).

Outlook

• Crude oil prices are expected to trade with a positive bias during the

week on account of rising supply concerns from Iran coupled with

weakness in the US dollar.


• Buy MCX Crude March Between 5335-5325, SL-5230, Target -5460/5530

(CMP: 5393)

• Nymex Crude Oil: Support 106.25/102.50 Resistance 111.60/113.60

(CMP: 109.36)


MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl) NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)

320

330

340

350

360

370

380Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)

DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance

• On a week-on-week basis, the US Dollar Index (DX) weakened sharply by 1.3

percent .

• The Indian Rupee (INR) witnessed appreciation of around 0.6 percent last week.

Factors that influenced movement in the DX

• Upbeat economic data from the country led to optimistic sentiments in the US

markets and this decreased demand for the low-yielding dollar last week.

• In addition to this, sharp upside in the Euro also affected demand for the US

dollar.

• The index touched a low of 78.26 last week and closed at below the 79-mark on

Friday.

Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee

• A weaker dollar .


76.5

77.0

77.5

78.0

78.5

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

US Dollar Index

• A weaker dollar .

• Continuously increasing capital inflows in the country .

• However, choppy sentiments in domestic markets resisted sharp appreciation in

the currency. (Nifty -2.5% Sensex -2%)

FII Inflows

• For the current month, FII inflows totaled at Rs 17300 crores till 24th February

2012. While on a year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs 27657.50

crores till 24th February.

Outlook

• During the week, we expect the Indian Rupee to trade with an appreciation bias,

on account of dollar weakness coupled with positive sentiments in the global

markets which will also help rise in domestic equities.


• USD/INR MCX Mar: Support 49.13/48.80 Resistance 49.95/ 50.30 (CMP: 49.44)

• US Dollar Index: Support 77.90/77.50 Resistance 79.10/ 82.0(CMP: 78.43)


48.0

49.0

50.0

51.0

52.0

53.0

54.0

$/INR - Spot

Euro

Weekly Price Performance

• On a weekly basis, the Euro appreciated sharply by 2.3 percent on

rising expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will inject

nearly half a trillion Euros into banks in this week's three-year

refinancing operation which is scheduled on 29th February 2012.

• Additionally, weakness in the US dollar also acted as a positive factor

for the currency.

• The Euro hit a two and a half month high of 1.3486 and ended its

trading session at 1.3456 last week.

News and Developments

• Signs of actions from the Group of 20 major economies in order to


1.26

1.27

1.28

1.29

1.30

1.31

1.32

1.33

1.34

1.35

Euro/$ - Spot

• Signs of actions from the Group of 20 major economies in order to

control the Europe’s debt crisis led to rise in risk appetite in the

global markets.

• The G20 may agree to increase financing for the International

Monetary Fund (IMF) in April if Europeans build up their firewall.

Euro zone countries have also pledged to reconsider their bailout

fund in March.

Outlook

• We expect the Euro to trade higher in this week, taking cues from

upbeat sentiments in the global markets along with a weaker dollar.

However, concerns with respect to Euro Zone debt crisis still persist

and any negative news or developments from the Euro Zone front

may lead to downside pressure on the currency.


• EURO/USD SPOT : Support 1.3251/1.3050 Resistance 1.3570/1.3686

(CMP: 1.3445)


63.5

64.5

65.5

66.5

67.5

68.5

69.5

70.5

EURO/INR - Spot

Guar



• The upside rally in Guar complex continued with Guar seed & gum futures

gaining 12.5% & 12% w-o-w on robust exports expectations of tight supplies in

the long run.

• Despite higher margin on buy side prices gained sharply on account of supply

tightness amidst robust overseas demand.

Exports up 194% as on Nov 11- Overseas demand subdued at high prices

• According to Apeda, India exported 670,949 tn guar gum in Apr-Nov 2011-12

fiscal, up 194.1% from 228,113 tn a year ago. Exports till November 2011 was

much higher compared to total exports of 4.03 lakh tn in 2010-11 fiscal.

• Although exports remained subdued since January due to a record high prices,

we expect it to pick up after prices as Guar gum is used as a sealant in fracking or

hydraulic fracturing of wells, and shift in technology from vertical to horizontalhydraulic fracturing of wells, and shift in technology from vertical to horizontal

fracturing has led to manifold increase in demand.

Robust exports and shortage in supplies seen supporting Guar prices

• With lower carryover stocks and drop in output by 8%, the supplies would not be

sufficient in the long run if Guar gum export trend continue to remain the same as

last year, thus supporting the upside rally in the longer term.

• As per traders, farmers in the irrigated areas of Rajasthan and Haryana are

looking at planting intermediate Guar crop in February for harvest in May – June.

However, 60-70 thousand bags may not make much difference on the supplies.

Outlook

• Guar complex may continue to remain firm the current week on the back of

supply deficit in the long run. Although demand is subdued at current high prices

sentiments remain positive as shift in technology from vertical to horizontal

fracturing of oil wells led to manifold increase in demand for guar gum.

Weekly Support and Resistance

• Guar Seed March contract Trend Up: Support: 16500/15800 and Resistance:

18800/19500


Chana



• Estimates of Lower output coupled with negligible carry over stocks led to sharp

rise in Chana prices which settled 9% higher w-o-w.

Chana output may fall even below government's estimates of 7.6 mn tn

• Decline in area by 4.3% and unfavorable climate has led to a fall in Chana output

by 6.8 at 7.6 mn tn compared to 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11 Major drop is output is

estimated in the state of Maharashtra by 42% followed by Karnataka by 19%.

• However, some of the trade participants are expected Chana output to fall much

below government's expectations.

Harvesting pressure failed to cap prices

• Rabi harvesting started in Karnataka, Maharashtra and AP in January. However,

Maharashtra witnessed 42% drop in output and thus failed to cap upside

• However, arrival pressure would built up only after arrivals from MP commence in

full swing. MP markets have started receiving fresh arrivals of Chana in small

quantities. Arrivals' in Rajasthan would commence by mid March.

Despite seasonal pressure prices may stay firm in the current season

• Chana prices follow a seasonality pattern, wherein prices decline sharply with the

commence ment of fresh arrivals in January, bottom out during the peak arrival

period (March – April) and then gradually starts rising thereafter. However, in the

current season, demand supply fundamentals point towards upward pressure on

the prices even during the peak arrival period.

Outlook

• Chana prices are expected to remain firm in the current week on lower output

expectations coupled with negligible carry over stocks. Although prices may

witness some consolidation during peak arrivals period in March, overall trend

remain positive in the long term.

Weekly Strategy

• Buy NCDEX March Chana between 3700-3710, SL-3600, target 3880/4000.


Black Pepper Weekly Price Performance

• Lower arrivals in the domestic market during fresh arrival season amidst demand

from local stockists Pepper Spot prices and Futures to settle 9.6% and 16.75%

higher respectively w-o-w.

• Pepper prices witnessed highest gains amongst the spices in this week.

Global Scenario

• According to International Pepper Community, global Pepper output is projected

to grow by 7 % in 2012 to 3.20 lakh tonnes as against 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011.

• Import of Pepper into U.S during April to November 2011 surged marginally

by1.58 % to 64276 tonnes as compared to 63274 tonnes during the same period

in 2010-11.

• Indonesia remained the largest supplier, supplying 37% to U.S.

Exports of Pepper from Indonesia and Vietnam fell by 56% and 2% respectively


• Exports of Pepper from Indonesia and Vietnam fell by 56% and 2% respectively

while exports from Brazil, India and Malaysia rose by 6%,32% and 10%

respectively in 2011. Exports from major suppliers fell owing to lower availability.

Domestic Scenario

• Production in India is expected to scale down further by 10.4% to 43000 tonnes

in 2012 from 48000 tonnes in 2011.

• Average monthly arrivals in the domestic market till date have declined at around

6.95 MT as compared to 12.39 MT in the last month. On the other hand average

offtakes improved to 36.97 MT as compared to 6.95 MT in January 2012

Outlook

• Demand from the local stockists amidst lower arrivals are expected to keep

Pepper prices firm in the week

Weekly Strategy• Buy NCDEX March Pepper between 36200-36300, SL-34800, Target

38000/38300Source :Agri Watch

Turmeric Weekly Price Performance

• Improved arrivals in the domestic market led Spot turmeric and Futures to settle

3.53% and 0.84% lower respectively w-o-w.

• Supplies in the domestic market overlooked offtakes by the local stockists and

overseas buyers.

Turmeric production to touch historical high in 2012

• Production of Turmeric is expected to touch historical level of 82 lakh bags in

2011-12 season.

• Production of turmeric in Erode in 2011-12 is expected to rise 29% to 45 lakh

bags as compared to 35 lakh bags in 2010-11.

Exports of Turmeric at historical high of 58,000 tonnes

• Exports of turmeric during April to November rose 63% to 58,000 tonnes as



compared to 35,500 tonnes in the same period previous year. However, exports

for the month of November 2011 declined by 5.9 percent.

• The target set by the Spices board have already been achieved and has touched

new historical high of 58,000 tonnes in the eight months of the FY 2011-12.

Outlook

• With arrivals in the domestic market to gain sharply prices may remain bearish in

the coming weeks .

• However, if farmers hoard the stocks tracking sharp fall in the spice, prices may

find support and strengthen.

Weekly Strategy• Sell NCDEX April Turmeric between 4760-4780, SL-4945, Target 4530/4850


Source: Agriwatch

Jeera Weekly Price Performance

• Expectation of better output of jeera this season along with fresh arrivals in the

domestic led prices to remain bearish for the second consecutive week and

settled 1.53% and 2.15% lower respectively w-o-w.

• Demand from the overseas buyers continues to remain weak.

Jeera production to touch 35 lakh bags in 2012

• Production of jeera this season is expected to touch 35 lakh bags according to the

spot market sources as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2011 (each bag weighs

55kgs).

• Domestic consumption of jeera however hovers around 22-25 lakh bags.

Exports of Jeera rose by 33% month on month




compared to 20,750 tonnes in the same period previous year. Exports for the

month of November 2011 improved 33% month and month to 6000 tonnes.

Outlook

• Jeera prices are expected to remain weak as fresh arrivals in the domestic market

are likely to gain momentum in the coming weeks.

• Technically, if prices consistently trade below 13500 levels prices may witness

further selling pressure.

Weekly Strategy

• Sell NCDEX March Jeera between 14000-14100, SL-14560, Target 13200/13000.


Source: Spices Board of India

Soybean


Weekly price performance

• Improved demand for Soybean in the global market and expectation of lower

global Soybean stocks led CBOT Soybean prices and NCDEX Futures to remain in

the green for the second consecutive week and settled 0.63% and 0.29% higher

w-o-w.

U.S. Soybean weekly sales hit one year high

• U.S. weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 11.59 lakh tn up 214% w-o-w

as compared to 3.68 lakh tonnes in the previous week.

• Large purchases by the Chinese delegation resulted in highest weekly sales in

the year.

Global Soybean updates

• According to the USDA annual agricultural outlook forum held on Thursday, 23rd

February and Friday 24 February U.S. Soybean inventories are forecasted toFebruary and Friday 24th February U.S. Soybean inventories are forecasted to

fall by 25% to 205 million bushels in marketing year 2012-13.

• Further according to International Grains Council World Soybean output is

expected to decline by 8% to 246.5 million tonnes as compared to last year.

World Soy meal trade is expected to surge by 3% to 58.4 million tonnes as

compared to last year.

Indian Scenario

• Indian Soy meal exports during Apr 2011 to January 2012 of surged 4.8% to

30.24 MT as compared to 28.87 MT. However, month on month exports fell by

40.5 percent.

Outlook

• Lower global ending stocks of Soybean and rising demand for the Soybean is

expected to keep Soybean prices firm in the coming week.

Strategy

• Buy NCDEX March Soybean between 2570-2580, SL-2530, target 2665/2680.


Source: USDA

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil


Weekly price performance

• Domestic as well as CBOT soy oil prices extended gains of the previous week on

account of firmness in the entire Edible Oil complex and demand from the domestic

buyers. Prices settled 1.0% and 1.65% higher respectively w-o-w. MCX CPO and BMD

palm Oil also settled 0.40% and 0.82% higher respectively on reports of better

exports figures from Malaysia.

Global Scenario

• Malaysia's palm oil January 2012 production stood at 12.87 tn down 13.8% as

compared to December 2011. Palm oil stocks slipped to a five-month low to 20.07

tn as compared to 20.58 tn in December 2011.

• Malaysian palm oil exports during 1-25 Feb surged 1.1% to 9.92 lakh tn as compared

to 9.81 lakh tn in the same period previous year. China remained major buyer of the

Palm oil from Malaysia importing around 2.58 lakh tonnes as against 1.85 lakhPalm oil from Malaysia importing around 2.58 lakh tonnes as against 1.85 lakh

tonnes in the same period last year.

• Indonesian Crude palm Oil output is expected to rise by 8 % to 4.5 million tonnes in

Quarter 1 2012.

Domestic Scenario

• India imported 6.54 lakh tn edible oil in Dec 2011, down 20.9% from a month ago

and 10.3% a year ago. In Nov-Dec 2011, the first two months of the current oil year,

edible oil imports were at 14.8 lakh tn, as against 13.8 lakh tn a year ago. Nov-Dec

CPO imports 1.05 mn tn against 1 mn tn y-o-y, while December imports stood at

4.36 lakh tn against 5.24 lakh tn y-o-y.

• Imports in 2011-12 are expected to turn costlier as Indonesia hiked export duty on

crude palm oil (CPO) by 1.5% to 16.5% and lowered duty on refined Palmolein (RBD)

from 15% to 8%. India imports about 50% of its total requirement .

Strategy: Refine Soy Oil

• Buy NCDEX March Refined Soy Oil between 708-710, SL-698, target 730/735.

Strategy : Crude palm Oil (CPO)

• Buy MCX March CPO between 542-545, SL-534, target 560/565.


Sugar



• Sugar futures which declined initially on higher supplies, rebounded after

government on Thursday notified additional 1 mn tn Sugar exports. Overall,

NCDEX futures settled marginally higher 0.25%. Liffe sugar futures settled 4.8%

higher w-o-w after Kingsman lowered its 2012-13 surplus forecast by half.

Notification to additional exports deferred

• Indian government issued a notification to mills detailing terms for the export,

wherein it asked mills exporting sugar from their own production to submit

applications to authorities within 30 days from Feb. 23 while those sourcing the

sugar from another factory, in order to minimize transportation costs, were asked

to submit applications no later that 45 days from the date of the circular.

Decisions awaited for week- Monthly Sugar quota & Sugar decontrol

• Government is expected to release monthly quota for march in the current week• Government is expected to release monthly quota for march in the current week

which may be lesser to protect the interest of the millers.

• Government is also trying to give some relief to the millers, which are suffering

from continuous decline in sugar prices which squeeze the profit margins.

• Millers are selling sugar below cost of production due to tight control of govt over

sugar release mechanism. The decision on sugar decontrol is awaited.

Sugar surplus to shrink 43% in 2011-12- Kingsman

• A sugar glut that drove prices down the most in a decade last year is set to shrink

by 43% next season as consumption growth exceeds the 10-year average. Surplus

will drop to 5.5 mn tn in the 2012-13 season from 9.7 million tonne this season.

Outlook

• Sugar prices may remain firm in the current week on expectations of lower

monthly quota and permission to export additional sugar. Further supportive

global Sugar fundamentals may also support Indian Sugar prices.

Strategy

• Buy NCDEX March Sugar between 2870-2875, SL-2840, target 2920/2950.


Potato



• Potato prices which remained range bound in the last 3-4 weeks, gained sharply

after reports of bight disease in some part of the country coupled with improved

demand.

Blight disease may lower yield and damage standing crop.

• UP is the largest Potato producing state contributing 35% in total production

followed by West Bengal- 22%, Bihar-14%, Punjab- 5%., Gujarat and MP- 3% each

• Going by horticulture dept figure, India was expected to harvest record crop of

potato for the second consecutive year. However, there are reports of blight

disease across UP which may hamper the crop.

Ongoing demand to support price

• Increasing demand due to ongoing marriage season coupled with decline in the

quantum of arrivals from the producing regions is expected to support prices.quantum of arrivals from the producing regions is expected to support prices.

Current output estimates by NHRDF - higher by 8.3% at 43 mn tn

• According to National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation

(NHRDF), Potato output in the season 2011-12, is estimated higher at 43.6 mn tn

compared to 40 mn tn last year.

PepsiCo to increase purchase by 20% under collaborative farming

• Global beverages and snacks major PepsiCo procured 2 lk tn of potatoes from

farmers through three plants in West Bengal, Punjab and Maharashtra last year .

This year our target is to procure 20 per cent more than the last year.

Outlook

• Potato prices are expected to remain firm on reports of blight disease and

improved demand due to ongoing marriage season. Although, potato output is

currently estimated higher by 8.3%, it may decline below last years levels.

Strategy

• Buy NCDEX March Potato between 775-780, SL-745, target 850/880.

• Buy MCX March Potato between 805-815, SL-770 target 870/900.


Thank You!

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 27, 2012

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.

Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.

Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000

MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

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