commodity prices - volatility - satınalma€¦ · volatility 99 %-38%. soft commodities? 193 %-56%...
TRANSCRIPT
Commodity prices -volatility
Chief Analyst
Tom BundgaardMSTA, MFTA
Why are we interested in commodity prices?
163 %
163 %
-61%
163 %
-61%
99 %
-38%
163 %
-61%
99 %Volatility
-38%
Soft commodities?
193 %
-56%
131 %Wheat
You
The market
Two questions for you…
Spend: 200 mio EUR
Spend: 200 mio EUR
Hedging
1. Contractual
2. Physical
3. Financial
4. Budgettering
(kundepriser, internt budget mv.)
1. Contractual
2. Physical
3. Financial
4. Budgettering
(kundepriser, internt budget mv.)
1. Contractual
2. Physical
3. Financial
4. Budgettering
(kundepriser, internt budget mv.)
1. Contractual
2. Physical
3. Financial
4. Structural hedging
(customer prices, internal budget etc.)
7 good = 63 %
4 bad = 36 %
7 good = 63 %
4 bad = 36 %
7 good = 63 %
4 bad = 36 %
7 good = 63 % 81%
4 bad = 36 %
7 good = 63 %
4 bad = 36 %
How to forecast? When to hedge?
Steel prices
Steel prices
Price bubbles
Price bubbles
”Anti-bubbles”
Steel price (HRC)
Moving average
Steel price (HRC)
Moving average
Steel price (HRC)
Moving average
Steel price (HRC)
Moving average
Steel price (HRC)
Moving average
Evidence stacking
Hedge
Hedge
Hedge
Steel price (HRC)
Moving average
Top 5 things:
1. You need to have two strategies
2. You need to have a hedging policy
3. You need to monitor your own track record
4. You need to have an updated view on allyour commodities, at least top 5-10.
5. You need to have a one-pager for your hedging decisions
I hope you got some inspiration
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