common investment meeting public session...• the drivers of continued strong market returns...
TRANSCRIPT
THE CITY OF NEW YORKOFFICE OF THE COMPTROLLER
December 11, 2017
COMMON INVESTMENT MEETINGPublic Session
PERFORMANCE REPORTINGThird Quarter 2017
Asset Class IndexThird
Quarter 2017Fiscal Year
End 6/30/17 3 Year 5 Year Expected*
Equities - U.S. Russell 3000 4.6% 18.5% 10.7% 14.2% 7.8%Equities - Developed Intl MSCI EAFE 5.4% 20.3% 5.0% 8.4% 8.9%Equities - Emerging Intl MSCI EMF 7.9% 23.8% 4.9% 4.0% 11.0%Debt - US Govt Long Duration Citigroup Treasury 10+ 0.6% -7.4% 4.9% 2.9%Debt - US Government NYC Treas/Agency +5 0.5% -4.6% 3.5% 1.9% 2.8%Debt - Investment Grade NYC IG Credit 1.2% 1.9% 3.8% 3.2% 3.4%Debt - High Yield Citigroup BB & B 2.0% 11.5% 5.3% 5.8% 6.1%
3
Market Returns: Q3-2017
Source: State Street
*Average of consultant long-term arithmetic expected returns, as of 2016
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
• The drivers of continued strong market returns include:1) Strong equity earnings growth
4
Market Returns: Q3-2017
2Q 2017 1Q 2017
Russell 3000 10.6 9.18
MSCI EAFE 12.51 8.55
MSCI EMF 7.81 7.81
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
2) Combination of low inflation, low yields and global quantitative easing
5
Market Returns: Q3-2017
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementFor Investment Evaluation Purposes by Authorized Personnel Only – May Contain Material Non-Public Information
US Europe Japan
Inflation: Q2 1.4% 1.3% 0.4% Q3 1.7% 1.5% 0.7%30 Year Yields: Q2 2.84 1.24* 0.85 Q3 2.86 1.29* 0.86QE: Q2 0 €180B ($200B) ¥16.8T ($146B) Q3 0 €180B ($200B) ¥13.3T ($125B)
*German yieldsUS QE – reinvestment only, both Q2 and Q3
• Aggregate Global Quantitative Easing
6
Market Returns: Q3-2017
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
3) Geopolitical concerns, but limited impact on economic growth and in financial markets
- North Korea, continued concerns.- German election – 9/24, Merkel re-elected, AfD influence.- China economic and political concerns – 19th Party Congress
concluded with President Xi with unprecedented control.Deleveraging continues.
- Washington DC/Trump/Republicans – tax plan negotiations ongoing.- Brexit – negotiations ongoing, EU Summit planned for 12/14-12/15.- Oil – prices stable to higher on back of OPEC/Russia production cuts.
7
Market Returns: Q3-2017
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
• Change in Global QE– Fed announced on 9/21 beginning of balance sheet normalization.– ECB announced on 10/26 reduction of QE program, reducing monthly
purchases from €60B to €30B, beginning 1/1/18 through 9/30/18. No decision on QE post this time period.
• Policy Rate Increases– Fed – raised rates 25bp on 9/21, expected to raise another 25bp on 12/13
FOMC meeting– Bank of Canada – raised rates 25bp in both July and September– Bank of England – raised rates 25bp in November
8
Update on Potential Regime Shift in Interest Rates
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
• Change in amount of Global Quantitative Easing
9
Update on Potential Regime Shift in Interest Rates
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
• Monthly change in Global Quantitative Easing
10
Update on Potential Regime Shift in Interest Rates
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
• Probable impact on growth and markets include– Stronger GDP growth in 2018 and 2019– Higher inflation in ‘18 and ‘19, given economy currently growing above trend and full
employment– Larger budget deficit and increase in UST issuance– Higher interest rates– Higher earnings, particularly for companies who currently pay high tax rates (banks, retailers,
domestic-based manufacturers)
11
US Fiscal Stimulus
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
Source: Morgan Stanley
Net of fees in public asset classes are recorded on an accrual basis.Private markets data is reported on a lagged basis with fees recorded on a cash basis.
(SSB N, p.7; T, F p.8; P p.9; B p.10)
NYC Pension SystemPortfolio Std
Dev - 1 yr.Fiscal YTD
One Year Trailing
Three Year Trailing
BERS 3.3% 4.5% 15.2% 8.2%TRS 3.1% 3.6% 12.5% 7.2%FIRE 2.9% 3.9% 12.9% 7.4%POLICE 2.8% 3.9% 13.2% 7.7%NYCERS 2.8% 3.7% 12.9% 7.4%Public Mkt Equiv 35 (43/22/35 index) 3.4% 12.0% 6.8%Median Fund - TUCS 3.6% 12.8% 7.3%
12
Total NYC Pension Fund Net Performance as of 9/30/2017
Source: State Street
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
13
Asset Allocation 9/30/2017- Growth
Source: State Street
Relative Mix to Adjusted New Policy Weights
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
14
Asset Allocation 9/30/2017– Inflation Protection
Source: State Street
Relative Mix to Adjusted New Policy Weights
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
15
Asset Allocation 9/30/2017- Deflation Protection
Source: State Street
Relative Mix to Adjusted New Policy Weights
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
16
Treasury Duration Actual Vs. Target as of 9/30/17
TRS, 13.5
NYCERS, 9.6
Police, 14.0 Fire, 14.3
BERS, 9.2
TRS, 17.8
NYCERS, 10.9
Police, 17.8 Fire, 17.8
BERS, 10.8
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
21.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Actual Target
Source: State Street
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
17
Fiscal Year to Date Return as of 9/30/17 – Total Portfolio
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
FYTD Portfolio FYTD Benchmark FYTD Excess
bps
TRS
NYCERS
Police
Fire
BERS
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB F p.12; N p.15; T p.16; P p.17; B p.19)
Source: State StreetOFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
18
Fiscal Year to Date as of 9/30/17 Excess Return – Total Portfolio
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
FYTD Total Excess Return FYTD Asset Allocation FYTD Manager Value Added
bps
TRS
NYCERS
Police
Fire
BERS
Source: State Street
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB F p.12; N p.15; T p.16; P p.17; B p.19)
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
19
Fiscal Year to Date as of 9/30/17 Manager Value Added - Total Portfolio
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
FYTD 3 Year Trailing
TRS
NYCERS
Police
Fire
BERS
bps
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB F p.13; N p.16; T p.17; P p.18; B p.20)
Source: State Street
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
20
Value Added – Total U.S. Equities
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
FYTD 3 Year Trailing
TRS: 30.28%NYCERS: 31.5%POLICE: 35.07%FIRE: 31.88%BERS: 36.28%
Source: State Street
Weights as of9/30/2017
bps
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB F p.24; N p.27; T p.28; P p.29; B p.31)
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
21
Value Added – Total Small Cap
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
FYTD 3 Year Trailing
TRS: 1.51%NYCERS: 2.61%POLICE: 2.52%FIRE: 1.7%BERS: 3.2%
Source: State Street
Weights as of9/30/2017
bps
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB F p.24; N p.27; T p.28; P p.29; B p.31)
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
22
Value Added – Total International Equities
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
FYTD 3 Year Trailing
TRS: 22.78%NYCERS: 22.43%POLICE: 16.16%FIRE: 16.49%BERS: 22.44%
Source: State Street
Weights as of9/30/2017
bps
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB F p.26; N p.29; T p.30; P p.31; B p.33)
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
23
International Equities Manager Level; Excess in Basis Points
Source: State Street
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
For further details on Manger performance please refer to: Overview Appendix B Public Markets Manager Performance Detail.
Manager Name Investment Mandate Benchmark Strategy TRS NYCERS Police Fire Board of Ed
ACADIAN Developed Small Cap S&P EPAC Small Cap USD NET Active 180 297 335 335 335 Baillie Gifford Developed Growth MSCI EMERGING MARKETS Active 541 429 731 731 731 Sprucegrove MTA Developed Value NYC Developed Value Benchmark Active 244 202
PYRAMIS Developed Small Cap S&P EPAC Small Cap USD NET Active (179) (177) (167) (172) -
Q3 2017 Excess in Bps:
24
Value Added – High Yield
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
FYTD 3 Year Trailing
TRS: 5.08%NYCERS: 4.14%POLICE: 4.57%FIRE: 4.8%BERS: 4.82%
Source: State Street
Weights as of9/30/2017
bps
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB F p.30; N, T p.33; P, B p.35)
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
25
Value Added – Bank Loans
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
FYTD 3 Year Trailing
TRS: 2.45%NYCERS: 1.76%POLICE: 1.58%FIRE: 1.54%BERS: 2.07%
Source: State Street
Weights as of9/30/2017
bps
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB F p.31; N, T p.33; B p.35; P p.36)
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
Value Added- Hedge FundsBasis Points of Excess Return
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
FYTD 3 Year Trailing
TRS: 0%
NYCERS: 0.15%
POLICE: 5.21%
FIRE: 5.25%
BERS: 0%
Source: State Street
Weights as of9/30/2017
26
bps
Value Added - Hedge FundsBasis Points of Excess Return (SSB F p.55; N p.56; P p.58)
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
27
Hedge Fund Partnership Snapshot; FYTD 9/30/17 Excess in Basis Points
Source: State Street
Portfolio Fund Name Strategy 3 Month
3 Month HFRI FOF Composite
Index + 1%
3 Month Excess amount
3 month Excess in
Bps NYC FIRE/POLICE CCP Quantitative Fund LP Tactical Trading 11.40% 2.52% 8.88% 888 NYC FIRE/POLICE SRS Partners US, LP - Class B - 1 Long/Short Equity 10.46% 2.52% 7.94% 794 NYC FIRE/POLICE Pharo Gaia Fund, LTD. Tactical Trading 7.29% 2.52% 4.78% 478
NYC FIRE/POLICE AlphaQuest Original LLC Tactical Trading -4.09% 2.52% -6.60% (660) NYC FIRE/POLICE Key Square Partners LP Tactical Trading -1.86% 2.52% -4.38% (438) NYC FIRE/POLICE Altimeter Partners Fund LP Long/Short Equity -1.74% 2.52% -4.26% (426)
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
Fees Compression ChartAsset Weighted Performance and Management Fees
Man
agem
ent F
ee
Perf
orm
ance
Fee
Source: Aksia
28
PRIVATE MARKET DATA
30
Value Added – Private Equity
(600)
(400)
(200)
-
200
400
600
Excess Return Since Inception; The PE Benchmark is the Russell 3000 + 300 bps as of 6/30/17
TRS - 07/08/99
NYCERS - 03/29/99
Police - 03/29/99
Fire - 03/29/99
BERS - 07/20/06
Inception Date
300bps Target
Source: StepStone Group & Hamilton Lane
Basis Points of Cumulative IRR above Public Market Equivalent
bps
The PME Spread is the difference between the IRR and the PME Benchmark.
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
31
Value Added – Opportunistic Fixed Income (OFI)
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Excess Return Since Inception; PME Benchmark: 50% JP Morgan Global High Yield 50% CS Leveraged Loans as of 9/30/17
TRS - 10/24/2007
NYCERS - 10/24/2007
Police - 10/24/2007
Fire - 10/24/2007
BERS - N/A
Inception Date
300bps Target
Source: State Street
Basis Points of Cumulative IRR above Public Market Equivalent
bps
The PME Spread is the difference between the IRR and the PME Benchmark.
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
32
Value Added – Private Real Estate - Core
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Excess Return Since Inception; Core = 40% Equities- Russell 3000 /60% BarcAgg as of 6/30/17
TRS - 12/6/2002
NYCERS - 12/6/2002
Police - 12/6/2002
Fire - 12/6/2002
BERS - 12/13/2010
Inception Date
Source: State Street
Basis Points of Cumulative IRR above Public Market Equivalentbp
s
The PME Spread is the difference between the IRR and the PME Benchmark.
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
33
Value Added – Private Real Estate – Non-Core
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Excess Return Since Inception; Non-core = 60% Equities- Russell 3000/40% BarcAgg as of 6/30/17
TRS - 12/6/2002
NYCERS - 12/6/2002
Police - 12/6/2002
Fire - 12/6/2002
BERS - 12/13/2010
Inception Date
Source: State Street
Basis Points of Cumulative IRR above Public Market Equivalentbp
s
The PME Spread is the difference between the IRR and the PME Benchmark.
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
34
Value Added - Infrastructure
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
Excess Return Since Inception; PME Benchmark: 50% R3000 & 50% Barclays Agg. as of 6/30/17
TRS - 11/19/2013
NYCERS - 11/19/2013
Police - 11/19/2013
Fire - 11/19/2013
BERS - 11/19/2013
Inception Date
Source: StepStone Group
Basis Points of Cumulative IRR above Public Market Equivalentbp
s
The PME Spread is the difference between the IRR and the PME Benchmark.
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
QUESTIONS?