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  • Communism’s Shadow: Historical Legacies and Contemporary Political Attitudes

    Grigore Pop-Eleches Princeton University gpop@princeton.edu

    & Joshua A. Tucker

    New York University joshua.tucker@nyu.edu Twitter: @j a tucker

    Fullbright Ukraine

    May 8, 2017

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • The Book!

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Outline of Remarks

    Background on overall project

    Theoretical framework

    Methodological approach

    Results from one chapter

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics

    Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa

    Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter

    However, literature characterized by:

    Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters

    Mainly single country “just so” stories

    Comparative work only within region

    Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and not on individual-level behavior

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics

    Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa

    Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter

    However, literature characterized by:

    Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters

    Mainly single country “just so” stories

    Comparative work only within region

    Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and not on individual-level behavior

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics

    Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa

    Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter

    However, literature characterized by:

    Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters

    Mainly single country “just so” stories

    Comparative work only within region

    Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and not on individual-level behavior

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics

    Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa

    Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter

    However, literature characterized by:

    Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters

    Mainly single country “just so” stories

    Comparative work only within region

    Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and not on individual-level behavior

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics

    Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa

    Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter

    However, literature characterized by:

    Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters

    Mainly single country “just so” stories

    Comparative work only within region

    Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and not on individual-level behavior

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics

    Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa

    Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter

    However, literature characterized by:

    Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters

    Mainly single country “just so” stories

    Comparative work only within region

    Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and not on individual-level behavior

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Project Motivation II: Stylized Facts

    Systematic Variance in Political and Economic Attitudes between Post-Communist Citizens and Non-Post-Communist Citizens

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Goals of the Book Manuscript

    1 Demonstrate that these differences in opinions do/do not exist

    2 Provide a theoretical explanaiton for these differences that allows us to assess the extent to which these differences are legacies of Soviet communism

    3 To evaluate which legacies are most important

    4 To develop a methodological approach for doing so

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Goals of the Book Manuscript

    1 Demonstrate that these differences in opinions do/do not exist

    2 Provide a theoretical explanaiton for these differences that allows us to assess the extent to which these differences are legacies of Soviet communism

    3 To evaluate which legacies are most important

    4 To develop a methodological approach for doing so

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Goals of the Book Manuscript

    1 Demonstrate that these differences in opinions do/do not exist

    2 Provide a theoretical explanaiton for these differences that allows us to assess the extent to which these differences are legacies of Soviet communism

    3 To evaluate which legacies are most important

    4 To develop a methodological approach for doing so

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Goals of the Book Manuscript

    1 Demonstrate that these differences in opinions do/do not exist

    2 Provide a theoretical explanaiton for these differences that allows us to assess the extent to which these differences are legacies of Soviet communism

    3 To evaluate which legacies are most important

    4 To develop a methodological approach for doing so

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Chapters of Book Manuscript

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Chapters of Book Manuscript

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Theoretical Explanations for Post-Communist Divergence: General Argument

    Divergence could be due to living in a post communist country.

    Divergence could be due to living through communism.

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Post-Communist Divergence: Living in a Post-Communist Country

    Demographic Factors

    Economic Factors

    Political Institutions and Outcomes (PR vs. SMD; Pres vs. Parliamentary; Level of Democracy, Corruption, etc.)

    All of these factors could explain why post-communist citizens hold different views without recourse to idea that people’s minds were changed by actually living through communism

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Post-Communist Divergence: Living in a Post-Communist Country

    Demographic Factors

    Economic Factors

    Political Institutions and Outcomes (PR vs. SMD; Pres vs. Parliamentary; Level of Democracy, Corruption, etc.)

    All of these factors could explain why post-communist citizens hold different views without recourse to idea that people’s minds were changed by actually living through communism

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Post-Communist Divergence: Living in a Post-Communist Country

    Demographic Factors

    Economic Factors

    Political Institutions and Outcomes (PR vs. SMD; Pres vs. Parliamentary; Level of Democracy, Corruption, etc.)

    All of these factors could explain why post-communist citizens hold different views without recourse to idea that people’s minds were changed by actually living through communism

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Post-Communist Divergence: Living in a Post-Communist Country

    Demographic Factors

    Economic Factors

    Political Institutions and Outcomes (PR vs. SMD; Pres vs. Parliamentary; Level of Democracy, Corruption, etc.)

    All of these factors could explain why post-communist citizens hold different views without recourse to idea that people’s minds were changed by actually living through communism

    Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

  • Living in a Post-Communist Country and Legacies

    Question: Which of these factors are “legacies” of communism?

    Pre-communist factors are definitely not legacies of communism

    Contemporaneous indicators are result of both communism and post-communism

    Some more communism than post-communism (e.g., % Urban)

    Some more post-communism than communism (e.g. use of

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