McBride Annex PAC 2016 September 26

Detailed Remarks to School Board on Potential Closing of McBride Annex

0. Overview[0001] We, the Parents Advisory Committee for McBride Annex and concerned residents of the associated neighbourhood respectfully request the Trustees keep McBride Annex open. This is important to our community (see §1). Demographic and zoning data and trends support keeping the school open. Our catchment is growing and growing younger (see §2). We are sympathetic to the challenges faced by the board with but closing McBride Annex saves, at best, less than a tenth of one percent of present operational expenditures. As well we note the report on school has many problems (see §4).1 Looking into the future closing the school will create only further problems for present and future students (see §2). We, respectfully request, the Trustees considered the detailed requests herein (see §5).

1. Community [0002] For us, our community is centered around Grays Park and anchored by the Annex. The Park is north of East 33rd between Knight and Fraser and more particularly between Windsor and Saint Catherines. Grays houses McBride Annex. The school, like us, is part of the community.

[0003] This is a community. This is the place we meet and connect. This is where the kids play and form new friendships. We warn our toddlers only bring your digger toy or a hula-hoop to the park if prepared to share – and it will be shared. This is who we are. Drop by the park on any weekend or afternoon and see how many families are there.

[0004] The Annex is special because it provides gradual transition for the students and their families. The Start Smart Preschool first engages the students at 3 and 4 years. The group and others joining in kindergarten stay together through to grade 3 in a smaller school that is closer to home.

[0005] Charity is part of the spirit of the place. The park was donated by its namesake, Mr. David Grays, a Vancouver pioneer. The Annex has a special memorial playground and tree in memory of James Fraser Darvell, a toddler who passed away at a young (2010 – 2011). Families in the area came together to support his family and fundraise for this playground. The Darvells chose the Annex to receive the playground gift with an expectation that it would be a vibrant legacy in the community for years. 2

[0006] We appreciate the community we have and are building and believe, based on our everyday experiences, that the annex is part of the community.

2. Data & Trends a. Enrollment Annex & Pre-School

[0007] The data shows the Annex is viable. The Annex has held a lottery for Kindergarten since at least 2014. At present there is a full class and a K/1 split.

1 This document support comments to be presented by Ms. T. Laker and Ms. V. Golubov, on behalf of the PAC. 2 Included for completeness in draft. Individual children should be excluded from the debate.

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[0008] The Start Smart Pre-School, a tenant of the VSB, is over-scribed.3 They are running a wait-list for 2019 – 2020. Further, since they started in 2012 – 2013 they have posted impressive enrollments. This is a leading indicator of demand for the Annex. The Pre-School expects 100 person waitlists by January.

Type 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Reg. 70 78 75 78 76 76 64W/L 42 37 72 85 93 68 26 7 1

Table 1: Start Smart Pre-School, located at McBride Annex, enrollment and waitlist data.

b. Demographics[0009] Demographic data and trends support keeping the school open. Demographic trends matters. Given economies of scale the cost per child of education will rise with this demographic trend. This is a separate effect from inflation. In short, why are the present children being faulted for not being Baby Boomers?

[0010] There are fewer children then there used to be and they are as equally deserving of an education as those in pervious and future generations. See Figure 1. According to the 2011 Census, 9.6 million or close to 3 out of 10 Canadians (29%), were Baby Boomers: born 1946 –1965. They were followed by the Baby Busters: born 1966 – 1971 and 2.8 million. The Children of Baby Boomers number 9.1 million people, or 27% of Canadians population: born 1972 – 1992. About 7.3 million people (22% of total population) are Generation Z: born 1993 – 2011. It is important to notice this last cohort is smaller than Baby Boomers and Children of Baby Boomers. Census data on Children born in and after May 2011 to May 2016 will not be available until next year.

[0011] Of note in Vancouver the absolute number of children under 15 has been fairly stable. The peak was in `66 and trough `81. Recently this population has been stable. See Figure 2. (C.f., projections from BC Vital Statistics at Table 5.)

3 Contact: Rebecca Bauman, CEO. Telephone: 604-441-6363, E-Mail: rebecca@startsmartpreschool.ca, Website: www.startsmartpreschool.ca

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Figure 1. Canada’s population pyramid with a well-established contracting shape. (2015 Statistics Canada)

Figure 2. Vancouver’s under 15 population. (2015 Statistics Canada)

Kensington-Cedar Cottage

Vancouver w.o. KCC KCC %/Van%

Total 47,470 100% 557,595 100%0 to 4 years 2,440 5.1% 22,420 4.0% 22%5 to 9 years 2,215 4.7% 20,265 3.6% 22%10 to 14 2,365 5.0% 21,905 3.9% 21%15 to 19 2,665 5.6% 26,545 4.8% 15%Rest 37,785 79.6% 466,460 83.7% (5.1%)Table 2: Kensington-Cedar Cottage versus Vancouver (without KCC), both sexes

(City of Vancouver – Census Local Area Profiles)

[0012] McBride Annex is in Kensington-Cedar Cottage (KCC) which runs from 41st and Fraser to Broadway and Nanaimo – boundaries 41st, Nanaimo, Broadway, Clarke, 16th, and Fraser. In 2011 the total population here was 47,470. Or, one in thirteen (1 in 13) Vancouverites lives here. It is comparable to, but larger than, the West End and only smaller than Renfrew Collingwood and Downtown.

[0013] Kensington-Cedar Cottage has more young people than the city as a whole. In KCC 22% (better than 1 in 5) of the population was 19 or under. In Vancouver, without KCC, this was 16.5% (1 in 6).4 See Table 2.

4 Time restrictions did not allow us to compute mean ages per area and compare the same.

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Figure 3: Census Tract 9330033.01. A – Annex, E – Elementary. Gray is out of tract, darker shade in tract out of catchment. (2011 Census)

[0014] The McBride Catchment is younger still than KCC. The McBride Catchment is rectangular bounded by Fraser and Knight plus Kind Edward and E 33rd. See Figure 3, Figure 4, Figure 7, Figure 8. The catchment is largely conterminous with Census Tract 9330033.01 (CMA/CT format). See Figure 3. This census tract (CT) within the Vancouver census metropolitan area (CMA) includes the McBride Catchment and land immediately to the east as bounded by Fleming Street. This Census Tract is even younger than KCC. This is specially so at the lowest ages in 2011. See Table 3, c.f. Table 2.

CT 9330033.01 Vancouver w.o. CT CT %/Van%Total 4,640 100% 598,860 0 to 4 years 270 5.8% 24,500 4.0% 30%5 to 9 years 225 4.8% 22,175 3.6% 24%10 to 14 245 5.3% 23,925 3.9% 24%15 to 19 260 5.6% 28,840 4.8% 14%Rest 3,640 78.4% 499,420 83.4% (6.3%)Table 3: Census Tract 9330033.01 versus Vancouver, both sexes (2011 Census)

Request 1: Need for better data[0015] Since 2011 there have only been more young children arriving in the CT / catchment. The 2016 census data is not available until 2017. The Trustees of the Vancouver School Board, alone or in association with trustees of other districts, can take two separate actions.

1. Request Statistics Canada break-out populations by year for ages 0 to 4. (This is done for 14 to 19 which might be useful for conscription or forecasting workforces but doesn’t help schools.)

2. Seek so called administrative data – may be more error prone but as a higher “sampling rate”. For example, request the province’s Vital Statistics Agency to release birth registration data.

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(The geographic and temporal distribution of births is of great public interest than then most popular boys and girls names.)

c. Zoning & Density[0016] The McBride Catchment is dense or zoned for increased density. There are a lot of single family homes (RS-1) in the area bounded by Fraser and Knight plus Kind Edward and E 33 rd. But there is a mix of zoning, e.g., one- and two-family dwelling, commercial, and comprehensive development, i.e., RS-1, RT-1, RT-2, RT-10, C-1, C-2, and CD-2.5 Its western edge (CD-1) and north east corner (RT-10) are dense and /or density is increasing there. See Figure 4.

Figure 4: Catchment with zoning overlaid. A – Annex, E – Elementary. Desaturated is out of catchment. (Zoning Map - July 21 2016 - Bylaw 11541 - City of Vancouver)

[0017] Density has increased since 2011. For example, Ledingham McAllister’s Century project, with well over 100 units, was not completed until after the 2011 Census. Sales continues until well into 2012. There is a new townhouse complex on Knight Street. Density will likely increase in RT-X zones – e.g., duplexes and laneway houses. The City seems amendable increasing density along Knight Street. As well, Holborn Properties will develop the 6.1 Hectare Little Mountain Complex which has sat empty or virtually empty for last 10 years. Once complete there 1400 units there. The site formerly contained BC Housing rental stock and was, by clear gerrymandering, classified as an eastside location; falling into the catchments of Brock and John Oliver. The City has already rezone adjacent land with single family homes. The experiences of Yaletown, Olympic Village, Lower Lonsdale, and Port Moody, yes Port Moody, have soon us children live in condominiums with micro dens and tastefully appoint three bar

5 Hyperlinks to documents associated with Vancouver, 2016, "Zoning & Development Bylaw No. 3575"http://vancouver.ca/your-government/zoning-development-bylaw.aspx

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stool kitchen tables. Little Mountain will create significant southward and eastward pressure on General Brock, General Wolfe, David Livingstone, McBride Annex, McBride, Etc.

[0018] The eastside is very much denser than the westside. See Figure 5. Note the desaturation on the SW of the city. Changes in the eastside will have domino effect with greater range than on the westside.

Figure 5: Vancouver’s population density per census tract. Note density east of Ontario and lack of residents in south west. The Catchment is east and north of the north end

of the cemetery. (City of Vancouver)

3. Outlook[0019] Closing McBride Annex:

– negatively affects the associated community

– saves little money

– creates an overcrowding problem at McBride

– risks making the school difficult to reopen

a. Grays Park Community[0020] Closing McBride Annex creates uncertainty for community near Grays Park. If the school closes, there will be a huge detrimental impact to our community:

– Lack of education opportunities for families within our catchment, including a lack of specialty programs close to our homes.

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– Losing the school will just be another blow to the chronic underfunding of public education in East Vancouver. This furthers the “bank run” on eastside schools – tell depositors a bank is unstable it will be unstable; underfund eastside schools and you will have no funds for eastside schools.

– Gaining a boarded up building in our neighbourhood. Not only do we lose a school but we gain a vacant building with associated crime and illegal dumping. Our community is being doubly punished by lack of proper resourcing.

b. Overcrowding at McBride Elementary[0021] Closing McBride Annex school will create further problems, and soon. Once combined the main school will be full with 402 out of 411 seats taken.6 And 17 of 18 classrooms used. The school would have room for about 10 more students. These additional students would have to be spread out over K-7 and not interfere any class size limits. Further, the combined populations exceeded McBride Elementary in 9 of the last 10 years. See Error: Reference source not found, which also shows the Annex is near capacity when adjusted for existence of the preschool.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

100

200

300

400

500

600

McBride & Annex Enrollment & Capacity by Year

Annex Elem TotalCapacity E Capacity A'

Figure 6: Enrollment and capacity by year. Annex’s capacity adjusted (A’) to reflect fact Vancouver Start Smart Preschool rents room 118.7 (VSB8)

[0022] In view demographic trends and development in the catchment this does not seem like a good idea. Parents may want to, or half to, send their kids to Dickens, Dickens Annex, Selkirk, Selkirk Annex, and Mackenzie, each respectively with 2, 1, 3, 1, and 1 major road(s) between school and catchment.

[0023] Kindergarten classes, for example, are different. Smaller class size, proximate to toilets, with cubbies, etc. Indeed the Ministry of Education, "Area Standards" prescribes greater physical space for Kindergarten classes.9 Will the all Kindergarten students fit? The report says “operating capacity [of 6 Vancouver School Board, 2016 "Administrative Report Schools Considered for Potential Closure McBride Annex School", Appendix 2, Page 21, Figure 18. 7 Vancouver Start Smart Preschool, room 118, McBride Annex. Running waitlist for 2018.8 Vancouver School Board, 2016 "Administrative Report Schools Considered for Potential Closure McBride Annex School", Appendix 1, Page 21, Figures 4 & 5.9 Ministry of Education, 2012 "Area Standards" Web Document, Version 05/2012, §2.3.1, 2.3.3.

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McBride] elementary can fluctuate slightly subject to the number of classrooms used for Kindergarten” but no range of numbers is listed.

c. Effect on Other Elementary Schools[0024] Closing McBride Annex will create pressure on other elementary schools. This affect needs a proper analysis including collecting data from parents of children of McBride and McBride Annex.

Request 2: Delaying in anticipation of better data[0025] Closing a school in late 2016 view of 2011 census data when 2016 census data will be available in May 2017 is most unfortunate timing. We respectfully request the Trustees delay making a decision on McBride Annex until the 2016 Census data is available.

d. Cost Savings are Small[0026] The operational savings of closing the Annex are small. They are, absent implementation costs, $285,621 on a $21.80M shortfall or $479.99M operating budget – 1.3% and 0.06% respectively.10

e. Marihuana Dispensary[0027] Does the board have a plan to preserve school sites for future use? Vancouver allows marihuana dispensaries under certain conditions if further than 300 m from schools and other facilities. If a school is closed and shuttered, the City of Vancouver will allow a dispensary within 300 m of the former school. The owner of the dispensary will likely sue the Trustees and/or the city if school is reopened. This will negatively affect students and your future freedom as Trustees.

Request 3: Work with City to preserve options [0028] We respectfully request that the Trustees of the Vancouver School Board approach and request Mayor and Council amend the Zoning and Development By-law No. 3575 to at §11.28.2 to read as follows or words to the same effect (underlined as addition):

A Medical Marijuana-related business is not permitted: … (b) within 300 meters of a the nearest property line of a set containing a School - Elementary or Secondary, a former (or approved) School that operated (or is scheduled operate) within 5 years of present, or Community Centre, or Neighbourhood house;

4. Issues with Report[0029] There are many issues in the Vancouver School Board report "Administrative Report Schools Considered for Potential Closure McBride Annex School". The document is silent on implementation

10 Data is known to Trustees better than anyone. Numbers taken from VSB, 2016 “Vancouver Board of Education 2016/2017 Revised Preliminary Budget Proposals” 2016 June 9, link.

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costs, and details of seismic analysis. The map is wrong. The demographic data is outdated. The metrics are opaque or improperly applied. The projections are suspect.

a. Implementation Costs[0030] The report does not provide cost associated with moving students and staff from the Annex to McBride Elementary. There are clear implementation costs for:

– Moving the library books, audio visual, moving sports equipment– Preparing kindergarten spaces – Shuttering the AnnexThe report isn’t clear or lacks details on implementation costs. Given this deficiency a decision based on the report alone cannot be regarded as reasonable. If these costs are known then not sharing them is an act of obfuscation.

Request 4: Provide implementation costs [0031] We respectfully request that the Trustees of the Vancouver School Board direct staff to create an estimate of implementation costs to move McBride Annex student body into McBride, and the Trustee share the same with the public.

b. Seismic Analysis[0032] The report is silent on seismic upgrade costs. It lists McBride Annex as "High 3 (H3) – Isolated failure to building elements such as walls are expected". The Provincial Government has two more vulnerable ratings – H2 and H1. One of our parents, an architect, notes the building would be relatively straightforward to upgrade, given its simple one story structure of a standard construction type.11 The report does not state what the actual cost would be. Wouldn’t the Trustee need to know this cost before deciding to close the school?

Request 5: Seismic upgrade costs [0033] We respectfully request that the Trustees of the Vancouver School Board direct staff to create an estimate of seismic upgrade costs for McBride Annex building, and the Trustee share the same with the public.

c. The Map is wrong[0034] The map of the catchment area is also incorrect – it omits 5 blocks of homes – on Harriet, Ringwood, and Glen. The map includes other errors. See, Figure 7, c.f., Figures 4 and 5 which are more detailed in every material respect.

11 Source: Kai W. Hotson, architect, resident of catchment, parent of McBride student.

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Figure 7: Map provided by VSB omits Harriet, Ringwood (“RING”), and Glen in orange. Mohawk, north of McBride, is missing but has no addresses. Errors of commission

shown in yellow. (PAC McBride Annex)

d. Demographic data is outdated[0035] The demographics data is outdated. The last census data we have is 2011. The neighbourhood has changed in demographic composition. Since 2011 we see strollers and kids everywhere.

[0036] The report does not consider how Ledingham McAllister’s Century project has changed the neighbourhood. The project not completed until after the 2011 Census. Further, sales continues until well into 2012. Figure 8 taken from Figure 5 illustrates the catchment and shows between 46 and 68 people12 on a 2.3 hectare site with 197 strata condominiums, 32 townhouses, and 11 free standing houses.13 Clearly more people live there now.

Request 2 (repeated): Delaying in anticipation of better data[0037] Closing a school in late 2016 view of 2011 census data when 2016 census data will be available in May 2017 is most unfortunate timing. We respectfully request the Trustees delay making a decision on McBride Annex until the 2016 Census data is available.

12 130 m 176 m 20 people / 10000 m2 46 people and 130 m 176 m 20 people / 10000 m2 68 people. Linear distances down centre of road taken on 2016 September 26. 13 Data provided by Daniel Golubov, real estate agent, resident of catchment, personal communication 2016 September 26.

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Figure 8: Enlargement of catchment from Figure 5 of showing 1) a dense neighbourhood and 2) incomplete 2.3 ha condominium site on western border.

e. Opaque metrics[0038] The metrics used in the report are opaque to a member of the public. For example, why is enrollment a whole number? Students are discrete units but are inter-school transfers forbidden? A helpful report would have included a definition of the metric .

[0039] Why isn’t capacity defined? The report makes reference to Ministry of Education definitions of operating capacity and utilization. However, these are not defined nor is a link or reference includes.

f. Improper metrics[0040] It appears that the report improperly states operating capacity. The Ministry of Education defines a school’s nominal capacity as “a base line capacity which will remain fixed, subject only to changes being made in physical space”.14 Operating capacity is the nominal capacity adjusted for grade structure and class room student capacity. That is, the mix of grades and the class size limits. Examples of nominal versus operating capacity for various grades is reproduced in Table 4. Thus it is wholly improper for the operating capacity to be expressed as a fixed round number. For a report to properly state school’s operating both the makeup of students it houses need to be considered. This is a small effect but a reasonable numerically literate person would gave grounds to distrust the report.

14 Ministry of Education, 2012 "Area Standards" Web Document, Version 05/2012, §2.2.1.

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Years Nominal Operating

K 20 191 – 3 25 214 – 7 21 25

Table 4: Ministry of Education, 2012 "Area Standards" Web Document, Version 05/2012 (Ministry of Education, s. 2.2.2, 2.2.3, 2.4.1)

g. Improper projection[0041] The report includes a projection of enrollment provided by a third party. This is used to reach the conclusion that "[p]rojected future student enrolment within the McBride Annex and McBride Elementary School catchment area can be accommodated at McBride Elementary." (p. 8)

[0042] This projection is highly suspect. The third party “uses VSB enrolment data and the following factors to project future enrolment" consisting of "Number of births", "Migration, Housing Yield", and "Participation rate". (Appendix 1, Section D, p. 17) The projection model is not shared nether are the assumptions. The date of the projection was made was not shared. As well, and most importantly, as projections the ranges and confidence intervals are not included.

[0043] “Projections provided without precision are useless”.15 One cannot make a prediction absent of uncertainty. One would expect projections to have ranges. It is reasonable for these ranges to grow over time – small ranges in the short term and larger ranges in the long term. This report includes projections over 14 years to the student. This is an impossible level of accuracy over an extraordinarily long period. Further, the track record of the third party mooted in the report.

[0044] The Ministry of Education and Vital Statistics BC forecasts growth in elementary students. Housing costs suggests this growth will occur on the eastside. The forecast growth is about 4600 elementary students in Vancouver School District 39 between 2014 and 2025. Table 5 shows growth. Of note, the current capacity surplus of the District 39 is about 5300. These numbers are well matched.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20250 -115 79 222 428 705 1276 1825 2338 3043 3810 4593Table 5: Calculated from Ministry of Education, 2015 “Report 1558A Projection Report

for Public School Headcount Enrolments” Online Report, p. 19.

15 Dr. Gavin A. M. W. Steininger, applied statistician, uncle to McBride Annex parent, personal communication 2016 September 26.

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5. Requests

[0045] We, the Parents Advisory Committee for McBride Annex and concerned residents of the associated neighbourhood, respectfully request the Trustees:

0. keep McBride Annex open. (¶[0001])1. request and seek more granular and additional population data from Statists Canada and/or BC

Vital Statistics. (¶[0015])2. delay making a decision on McBride Annex until the 2016 Census data is available. (¶s [0025],

[0037])3. approach and request Mayor and Council amend the Zoning and Development By-law No. 3575

to at §11.28.2 to best preserve the option to reopen schools. (¶[0028])4. direct staff to create an estimate of implementation costs of combining McBride Annex and

Elementary, and the Trustee share the same with the public. (¶[0031])5. direct staff to create an estimate of seismic upgrade costs for McBride Annex, and the Trustee

share the same with the public. (¶[0033])

6. Valediction

[0046] We, the Parents Advisory Committee for McBride Annex and concerned residents of the associated neighbourhood, thank you, Trustees for their time and attention this matter in particular and for your public service.

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