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  • ATTACHMENT A

    COMMUTER RAIL SYSTEM

    RIDERSHIP TRENDS

    April 2013

    Prepared by the Division of Strategic Capital Planning

    June 2013

  • COMMUTER RAIL RIDERSHIP TRENDS April 2013

    I. OVERVIEW

    Reported system ridership (including free Benefit-Access trips) in April 2013 increased by 1.3% compared to April 2012. Compared to March 2013, reported system ridership in April 2013 increased by 1.1%. April 2013 had one additional weekday, the same number of Saturdays, and one less Sunday than April 2012. After adjusting for calendar differences, April 2013 ridership was 0.4% higher than April 2012 ridership.

    April 2011 2012 2013 11vs13 12vs13

    Reported 6,367 6,617 6,699 5.2% 1.2% Free Trips 352 77 84 -76.1% 9.6% Total (Reported & Free) 6,719 6,694 6,783 1.0% 1.3%

    Free Trips & Calendar-Adjusted 6,741 6,723 6,749 0.1% 0.4% February-April (Last 3 months) 19,766 19,922 19,819 0.3% -0.5% January - April (Year-to-Date) 26,314 26,559 26,231 -0.3% -1.2% Last 12 Months 81,371 82,903 80,942 -0.5% -2.4%

    System Ridership Percent Change(in 000s)

    Figure 1 (below) presents system ridership adjusted for calendar differences by month since 2003. The twelve-month rolling average is included to display the underlying trend in passenger use.

    Figure 1: Calendar-Adjusted System Ridership (in thousands)

    5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013

    Calendar-Adjusted 12-Month Rolling Average

    Table 1 and Figure 2 (pg. 2) present calendar-adjusted monthly ridership totals for the Metra system.

  • 2010 2011 2012 2013 10 vs. 11 11 vs. 12 12 vs. 13 January 6,649 6,586 6,677 6,330 -0.9% 1.4% -5.2%

    February 6,366 6,349 6,296 6,359 -0.3% -0.8% 1.0% March 6,676 6,738 6,862 6,796 0.9% 1.8% -1.0% April 6,667 6,741 6,723 6,749 1.1% -0.3% 0.4% May 6,811 6,886 6,746 1.1% -2.0% June 7,195 7,330 7,077 1.9% -3.5% July 7,154 7,250 7,065 1.3% -2.6%

    August 7,143 7,399 7,077 3.6% -4.4% September 6,795 6,946 6,841 -0.8% -1.5%

    October 7,050 7,249 7,039 2.8% -2.9% November 6,737 6,955 6,744 3.2% -3.0% December 6,174 6,376 6,156 3.3% -3.4%

    YTD 26,357 26,414 26,558 26,235 0.2% 0.5% -1.2% Annual Total 81,417 82,806 81,302 1.3% -1.6%

    Year-to-Year Percent ChangePassenger Trips (in 000's)

    Table 1 Metra System Passenger Trips by Month

    (Adjusted for free trips & calendar differences)

    Figure 2: System Ridership Adjusted for free trips & calendar differences

    5,000

    5,500

    6,000

    6,500

    7,000

    7,500

    8,000

    8,500

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    T ho

    us an

    ds

    2010 2011 2012 2013

    -2-

  • II. RIDERSHIP INFLUENCES Many different factors influence day-to-day and year-to-year ridership trends. Some factors are within Metra’s control, such as service improvements, new stations, and marketing promotions. However, many more factors (such as weather, gas prices and the economy) that are outside of Metra’s direct control can influence ridership in a positive or negative manner. The following pages detail some of the factors believed to have influenced recent changes in year-to-year Metra ridership levels. Calendar Differences – As shown in the table (below), April 2013 had one additional weekday, the same number of Saturdays, and one less Sunday when compared to April 2012.

    Weekday Saturday Sunday/Holiday All Days 2012 2013 Diff 2012 2013 Diff 2012 2013 Diff 2012 2013 Diff

    Jan 21 22 1 4 4 0 6 5 -1 31 31 0 Feb 21 20 -1 4 4 0 4 4 0 29 28 -1 Mar 22 21 -1 5 5 0 4 5 1 31 31 0 Apr 21 22 1 4 4 - 5 4 -1 30 30 0

    YEAR-TO-DATE 85 85 0 17 17 - 19 18 -1 121 120 -1

    ine Upgrades/Extensions and Service EnhancementsL ents to report. Minor schedule There are no significant line upgrades or service enhancem

    time adjustments are not included in this section.

    cCormick PlaceM – During April, McCormick Place staged several public events which

    wn Activities

    may have contributed to Metra Electric and other line ridership. The events include the Black Women’s Expo (April 5-7), the Diabetes Expo (April 13), and the C2E2 Chicago Comic and Entertainment Expo (April 26-28). McCormick Place also hosted the Global Shop (April 16-18) and the BIO Conference (April 22-25) trade shows. Although these organizations did not opt-in for a Zone-A Metra show pass, their events may have contributed to Metra Electric ridership between downtown hotels and the conference center.

    owntoD – Navy Pier hosted several public events and one trade show

    as the site of the annually held Shamrock Shuffle

    during April which may have generated some ridership along all Metra lines. The events included the Hospitality Sales and Marketing Association show (April 3-4), the Shamrock Health Expo (April 5), the Chicago Business Opportunity Fair (April 18), the Pinto Days Wine Festival (April 20), the Concierge Preferred showcase event (April 23), and the World Sport Wrestling Festival (April 27). Along with the Regional Transportation Authority, Metra Marketing personnel staffed a booth at the April 23 Concierge Preferred event, promoting Metra services to hotel concierges from throughout the region.

    n April 7, Downtown Chicago wO fundraising race. This year the race attracted 60,000 participants and spectators which generated ridership across all lines that offer Sunday service. Finally, bats were swinging on the South Side as the Chicago White Sox hosted 16 home games (April 1, April 3-7 and April 19-28). Downtown Chicago offered museums, theaters, shopping, dining and more which attracted visitors from the region and beyond throughout the month.

    -3-

  • Marketing Promotions – A traditional commuter campaign was implemented at the beginning of March and continued as planned throughout April. Metra makes Life Easier is an integrated campaign across multiple tactics, which include radio, digital outdoor, and online components. As an additional element of the campaign, Metra is offering a “test drive” sweepstakes where 500 winners are selected weekly to receive two free Metra tickets. Through April, the number of email addresses collected to sign-up and qualify for the promotion exceeded 11,000, and 4,500 winners have been mailed tickets. The offer to test ride Metra will conclude June 3rd, with a total of 7,000 winners to be selected. Tickets are valid for 90 days. At the cut off period of each weekly ticket batch, an online survey will ask if the recipients used the tickets, how the tickets were used (work, business, leisure), employment/home location, past and current usage patterns of Metra, and if the ticket program influenced future usage. Gas Prices – As shown on the table and graph (below), the average gas price for April 2013 was -$0.31 lower than April 2012. The average retail price for a gallon of gasoline in March 2013 ($4.06) has remained nearly the same since February 2013 ($4.01).

    Month 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan $2.02 $2.96 $3.37 $3.69 $3.53 Feb $2.02 $2.83 $3.42 $3.71 $4.01 Mar $2.10 $2.93 $3.78 $4.33 $4.07 Apr $2.21 $3.16 $4.20 $4.37 $4.06 May $2.60 $3.21 $4.50 $4.20 Jun $2.98 $3.00 $4.28 $3.95 Jul $2.76 $2.95 $4.15 $3.83 Aug $2.82 $3.03 $4.01 $4.30 Sep $2.74 $3.11 $3.96 $4.32 Oct $2.63 $3.06 $3.64 $3.95 Nov $2.62 $3.16 $3.64 $3.71 Dec $2.56 $3.20 $3.51 $3.56

    YTD Average $2.09 $2.97 $3.69 $4.03 $3.92

    Cook County Average Gas Prices

    $1.00

    $1.50

    $2.00

    $2.50

    $3.00

    $3.50

    $4.00

    $4.50

    $5.00

    03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Reported Rolling 12-Month Avg

    Economy – As shown in the table and graph (below), the number of persons employed in the six-county Chicago Region in April 2013 remained nearly unchanged from April 2012 by decreasing just -0.1%.

    Month 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 11 vs. 12 12 vs. 13 Jan 3,925 3,784 3,853 3,834 3,896 -0.5% 1.6% Feb 3,891 3,806 3,862 3,886 3,890 0.6% 0.1% Mar 3,878 3,833 3,887 3,881 3,884 -0.1% 0.1% Apr 3,887 3,876 3,889 3,896 3,893 0.2% -0.1% May 3,894 3,879 3,868 3,915 0 1.2% -100.0% Jun 3,934 3,886 3,913 3,954 0 1.1% -100.0% Jul 3,951 3,903 3,892 3,961 0 1.8% -100.0%

    Aug 3,902 3,889 3,889 3,928 0 1.0% -100.0% Sep 3,860 3,905 3,894 3,984 0 2.3% -100.0% Oct 3,862 3,907 3,867 3,989 0 3.1% -100.0% Nov 3,882 3,946 3,880 3,951 0 1.8% -100.0% Dec 3,835 3,938 3,890 3,960 0 1.8% -100.0%

    YTD Average 3,895 3,825 3,873 3,874 3,891 0.0% 0.4%

    3,600

    3,700

    3,800

    3,900

    4,000

    4,100

    4,200

    4,300

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    Th ou

    sa nd

    s

    Reported 12-Month Average

    -4-

  • Office Occupancy - The graph (below) provides occupancy rates for Downtown Chicago and suburban locations. In the First Quarter of 2013, Downtown Chicago posted an 85.1% office occupancy rate, which signifies no change from the previous quarter. The suburbs posted a 78.5% office occupancy rate, which is slightly up from last quarter (78.2%).

    75%

    80%

    85%

    90%

    95%

    02 03 04 05 06 0