company confidential/proprietary a regional prototype system for a national problem chesapeake...
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Company Confidential/ProprietaryA Regional Prototype System for a National Problem
Chesapeake Inundation Prediction SystemBridging the Gap from Forecast to Impact
Presented to:MARACOOS Annual Meeting15 December 2011
What Emergency Managers Get NowWhat Emergency Managers Get NowSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1119 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-HARFORD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH1119 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006
...REPORTS OF TIDAL FLOODING ON THE INCREASE...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ANDTIDAL POTOMAC OVERNIGHT.
OFFICIALS IN ALEXANDRIA REPORT THAT WATER FROM THE POTOMAC RIVERHAS REACHED THE INTERSECTION OF UNION AND KING STREETS. THE GAGEAT CAMERON STREET DOCK WAS AT 4.36 FEET AS OF 1048 PM. INGEORGETOWN...THE WISCONSIN AVENUE GAGE WAS READING 6.22 AT THESAME TIME. THE GAGE WILL LIKELY REACH ITS 7 FOOT FLOOD STAGE ATTIME OF HIGH TIDE. WASHINGTON HARBOR HAS RAISED THEIR FLOOD GATESAS A RESULT.
EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED IN LOW LYING SECTIONS OF ST. MARYSCOUNTY DUE TO HIGH TIDES. VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS WERE BEINGCONDUCTED IN CALVERT COUNTY IN LOW LYING SPOTS NEAR THE PATUXENTRIVER. IN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...OFFICIALS WERE CONCERNED ABOUTOVERFLOWS IN LOW LYING SECTIONS OF ANNAPOLIS...PASADENA AND SHADYSIDE.
HIGH TIDE IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUETO RISE UNTIL THAT TIME AND WILL BE UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL INSPOTS. HERE ARE SOME AREA HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR TONIGHT...
ALEXANDRIA VA 302 AM EDT SATWASHINGTON CHANNEL DC 254 AM EDT SATBOWLEY BAR MD 254 AM EDT SATHAVRE DE GRACE MD 514 AM EDT SATBALTIMORE MD 203 AM EDT SATUSNA ANNAPOLIS MD 1225 AM EDT SATINDIAN HEAD MD 228 AM EDT SAT
CurrentText
Storm Surge Forecast
What Emergency Managers WantWhat Emergency Managers Want
Where will it flood?
When will it flood?
How deep will it be?
How long will it last?
What is the uncertainty in the forecast?
Forecast Impact
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1119 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-HARFORD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH1119 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006
...REPORTS OF TIDAL FLOODING ON THE INCREASE...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ANDTIDAL POTOMAC OVERNIGHT.
OFFICIALS IN ALEXANDRIA REPORT THAT WATER FROM THE POTOMAC RIVERHAS REACHED THE INTERSECTION OF UNION AND KING STREETS. THE GAGEAT CAMERON STREET DOCK WAS AT 4.36 FEET AS OF 1048 PM. INGEORGETOWN...THE WISCONSIN AVENUE GAGE WAS READING 6.22 AT THESAME TIME. THE GAGE WILL LIKELY REACH ITS 7 FOOT FLOOD STAGE ATTIME OF HIGH TIDE. WASHINGTON HARBOR HAS RAISED THEIR FLOOD GATESAS A RESULT.
EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED IN LOW LYING SECTIONS OF ST. MARYSCOUNTY DUE TO HIGH TIDES. VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS WERE BEINGCONDUCTED IN CALVERT COUNTY IN LOW LYING SPOTS NEAR THE PATUXENTRIVER. IN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...OFFICIALS WERE CONCERNED ABOUTOVERFLOWS IN LOW LYING SECTIONS OF ANNAPOLIS...PASADENA AND SHADYSIDE.
HIGH TIDE IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUETO RISE UNTIL THAT TIME AND WILL BE UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL INSPOTS. HERE ARE SOME AREA HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR TONIGHT...
ALEXANDRIA VA 302 AM EDT SATWASHINGTON CHANNEL DC 254 AM EDT SATBOWLEY BAR MD 254 AM EDT SATHAVRE DE GRACE MD 514 AM EDT SATBALTIMORE MD 203 AM EDT SATUSNA ANNAPOLIS MD 1225 AM EDT SATINDIAN HEAD MD 228 AM EDT SAT
From Forecast…
To Impact
MATURING TECHNOLOGY • Regional scale atmospheric wind
forecast model• Very high-resolution hydrodynamic
models with land flooding• Very high-resolution land elevation
data (LIDAR)• Emerging GIS and visualization
capabilities for integrated, high-resolution pictures and products
Bridging th
e Gap
Company Confidential/Proprietary
Project Management: • Chesapeake Bay Observing System (CBOS)/Old Dominion University• Chesapeake Research ConsortiumAtmospheric Modeling and Validation:• NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices
– Wakefield, VA; Sterling, VA; Mt. Holly, NJ• WeatherFlow, Inc.Hydrodynamic and Hydrologic Modeling and Validation:• Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary• University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES) Horn Point
Laboratory• NOAA NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast CenterOverland Inundation Validation:• USGS Water Science Centers in VA and MD• USGS Office of Surface Water, Reston, VAVisualization and Validation: • Noblis, Inc.Economic Valuation and User Engagement: • UMCES Chesapeake Bay Laboratory• CBOS/Old Dominion UniversityData Management and Communications: • NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System (CIPS) Partners
CIPS ComponentsCIPS ComponentsForecast
wind fields
Forecast major river discharge
Forecaston-land flooding
Visualize on-land flooding
NWS Weather Forecast
Office
NWS officesWeatherFlow
Middle Atlantic River Forecast
Center
VIMSUMCES
Noblis
Guidance to brief emergency
management
Dat
a M
anag
emen
t S
yste
m –
NO
AA
CB
O, A
SA
Transmit forecast
Transmit forecast
Retrieve wind field andriver discharge forecasts
Transmit flooding forecast
Retrieve flooding forecast
Transmit visualized flooding forecast
Retrieve visualized flooding forecast
Validate land
floodingUSGS
Eco
no
mic
Eva
luat
ion
- U
MC
ES
Alexandria
Richmond
Norfolk
AnnapolisWashington
Hampton
Baltimore
CIPS Forecast Demonstration
Veteran’s Day Nor’easter11-13 November 2009
Veteran’s Day Nor’easter11-13 November 2009
Potomac River
James River
Ch
esa
pe
ake
Ba
y
Delaw
are
BaySusquehanna River
Nor’Ida Storm Tide - NOAACO-OPS Data Nov 10-13, 2009
Watch Issued
Warning Issued Minor
ModerateMajor
Tue Wed Thu Fri
Coastal Flood WatchIssued 4 AM Tue Nov 10, 2009
Coastal Flood WatchIssued 4 AM Tue Nov 10, 2009
408 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
A COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND REMNANTS OF IDA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL ALLOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
THE APPROACHING NEW PHASE OF THE MOON...IN TANDEM WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING TIDAL ANOMALIES OF AROUND 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE IN THE WEEK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.
408 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
A COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND REMNANTS OF IDA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL ALLOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
THE APPROACHING NEW PHASE OF THE MOON...IN TANDEM WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING TIDAL ANOMALIES OF AROUND 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE IN THE WEEK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.
Company Confidential/Proprietary
Forecast Impact
10
Flooded AreaAll three forecasts
Two of three forecastsOne of three forecasts
Hampton
New
port New
s
Norfolk
Virginia Beach
James River
Poquoson
Portsmouth
Langley AFB
Chesapeake
Hampton
Roads
Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel
Chesapeake Bay
Atlantic Ocean
Naval Base Norfolk
Nor’Ida Maximum Flooding
Company Confidential/Proprietary
Forecast Validation
11
Poquoson
Flooded AreaAll three forecasts
Two of three forecastsOne of three forecasts
Company Confidential/Proprietary
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
12
Flooded AreaAll three forecasts
Two of three forecastsOne of three forecasts
Langley AFB
Company Confidential/Proprietary
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
13
Flooded AreaAll three forecasts
Two of three forecastsOne of three forecasts
Company Confidential/Proprietary
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
14
Flooded AreaAll three forecasts
Two of three forecastsOne of three forecasts
Poquoson
Hampto
n
Newport New
s
Company Confidential/Proprietary
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
15
Flooded AreaAll three forecasts
Two of three forecastsOne of three forecasts
Company Confidential/Proprietary
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
16
Flooded AreaAll three forecasts
Two of three forecastsOne of three forecasts
Company Confidential/Proprietary
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
17
Flooded AreaAll three forecasts
Two of three forecastsOne of three forecasts
Company Confidential/Proprietary
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
18
Flooded AreaAll three forecasts
Two of three forecastsOne of three forecasts
Where Jay Titlow
Lives
Jay’s Home
Poquoson High School
Public Works Dept
Police Dept
Fire Dept
Public Works DeptFire Dept
Company Confidential/Proprietary
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
20
Jay’s Home
Public Works Dept
Fire Dept
Police Dept
Poquoson High School
Flooded AreaAll three forecasts
Two of three forecastsOne of three forecasts
Company Confidential/Proprietary
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
21
Jay’s Home
Public Works Dept
Fire Dept
Police Dept
Poquoson High School
Flooded AreaAll three forecasts
Two of three forecastsOne of three forecasts
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1119 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-HARFORD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH1119 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006
...REPORTS OF TIDAL FLOODING ON THE INCREASE...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ANDTIDAL POTOMAC OVERNIGHT.
OFFICIALS IN ALEXANDRIA REPORT THAT WATER FROM THE POTOMAC RIVERHAS REACHED THE INTERSECTION OF UNION AND KING STREETS. THE GAGEAT CAMERON STREET DOCK WAS AT 4.36 FEET AS OF 1048 PM. INGEORGETOWN...THE WISCONSIN AVENUE GAGE WAS READING 6.22 AT THESAME TIME. THE GAGE WILL LIKELY REACH ITS 7 FOOT FLOOD STAGE ATTIME OF HIGH TIDE. WASHINGTON HARBOR HAS RAISED THEIR FLOOD GATESAS A RESULT.
EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED IN LOW LYING SECTIONS OF ST. MARYSCOUNTY DUE TO HIGH TIDES. VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS WERE BEINGCONDUCTED IN CALVERT COUNTY IN LOW LYING SPOTS NEAR THE PATUXENTRIVER. IN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...OFFICIALS WERE CONCERNED ABOUTOVERFLOWS IN LOW LYING SECTIONS OF ANNAPOLIS...PASADENA AND SHADYSIDE.
HIGH TIDE IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUETO RISE UNTIL THAT TIME AND WILL BE UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL INSPOTS. HERE ARE SOME AREA HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR TONIGHT...
ALEXANDRIA VA 302 AM EDT SATWASHINGTON CHANNEL DC 254 AM EDT SATBOWLEY BAR MD 254 AM EDT SATHAVRE DE GRACE MD 514 AM EDT SATBALTIMORE MD 203 AM EDT SATUSNA ANNAPOLIS MD 1225 AM EDT SATINDIAN HEAD MD 228 AM EDT SAT
From Forecast…
To ImpactBridged the Gap