company presentation 4th december 2017 - otc.nfmf.nootc.nfmf.no/public/news/17379.pdf · disclaimer...
TRANSCRIPT
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2020 Bulkers LtdCompany Presentation
4th December 2017
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Disclaimer
2
This presentation (the "Presentation") has been prepared by 2020 Bulkers Ltd. (the "Company") and is made available through the N-OTC system on this 4th day of
December 2017 solely for information purposes. The Presentation does not constitute any recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise transact with any securities issued by the
Company.
No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made by the Company and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or
correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein. The Company shall have no responsibility or liability whatsoever (for negligence or otherwise) for any loss
arising from the use by any person or entity of the information set forth in the Presentation. All information set forth in the Presentation may change materially and without
notice. In making the Presentation public the Company undertakes no obligation to provide additional information or to make updates thereto. The information set forth in the
Presentation should be considered in the context of the circumstances prevailing at the date hereof and has not been and will not be updated to reflect material developments
which may occur after such date unless specifically stated in such update(s).
Matters discussed in the Presentation include "forward looking statements". "Forward looking statements" are statements that are not historical facts and are usually identified
by words such as "believes", "expects", "anticipates", "intends", "estimates", "will", "may", "continues", "should" etc. These "forward looking statements" reflect the Company's
beliefs, intentions and current expectations concerning, among other things, the Company's results, financial condition, liquidity position, prospects, growth and strategies.
"Forward looking statements" include statements regarding: objectives, goals, strategies, outlook and growth prospects, future plans, events or performance and potential for
future growth, liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditures, economic outlook and industry trends, developments in the Company's market, the impact of regulatory
initiatives and the strength of the Company's competitors. "Forward looking statements" involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on
circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The "forward looking statements" included herein are based upon various assumptions, many of which, in turn, are
based upon further assumptions. This includes, without limitation, the Company's review of historical operating trends, data contained in the Company's records and data
available from third parties. Although the Company believes that these assumptions were reasonable when the relevant statements were made, they are inherently subject to
significant known and unknown risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other factors which are difficult or impossible to predict and which are beyond the Company's control.
"Forward looking statements" are not guarantees of future performance and such risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors which are inherent thereto could
cause the actual results of operation, financial condition and liquidity position of the Company or the industry in which it operates to differ materially from those results which,
expressed or implied, are contained herein. No representation to the effect that at any of the "forward looking statements" or forecasts will come to pass or that any forecasted
result will be achieved are made.
The Presentation and the information contained herein does not constitute or form a part of and should not be construed as an offer for sale or subscription or of solicitation or
invitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities issued by the Company.
4. December, 2017
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Investment highlights
Opportunistic approach to selling
Fuel efficient vessels with large
cargo intake
Historically low newbuilding prices
Attractive payment structure
and fixed price options
Low costs with no management fees
or salaries
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Summary
4
1) At 12 knots speed, average between laden and ballast consumption. Cape index vessel 43mt/day, 2020 Newcastlemax 25mt/day, HFO price USD 375/ton
2) Assuming USD 5 mill in equity per vessel.
3) Assuming building supervision USD 500k per ship, working capital USD 350k per ship. 60% LTV, 15 year profile, 5% interest. OPEX USD 5,5k/day, G&A USD 0,75kday, 97% utilization. Assumes ships earn TCE equivalent of
25% premium to Baltic Capesize Index 5TC. A 25% premium is in line with recent deals done on a TC+ basis for Newcastlemax
Attractive entry point
✓ Drybulk earnings have recovered and are set to increase further on the back of expected limited fleet growth and
continued robust trade growth going forward
✓ Despite significantly improved drybulk earnings, newbuilding prices have been around the lowest levels seen in modern
times, creating a favorable risk/reward for ordering newbuildings
✓ Newbuilding prices are now starting to show clear signs of recovering driven by relevant yards having filled most of their
orderbooks for 2018/2019, combined with rising steel prices and a weakening USD
Favorable terms for fuel efficient newbuilds
✓ Firm contract for 2 x Newcastlemax drybulk vessels to be built at New Times Shipyard for USD 44.23 million each.
Options for further 2 + 4 ships, at a fixed price of USD 44.73 million
✓ Favorable payment terms giving significant leverage to an increase in asset values
✓ Newbuild vessels with 17,7 tons per day lower fuel consumption than the reference vessel for the Baltic Capesize Index,
with 15 % greater cargo lifting capacity yields USD 10,400 higher TCE earnings at USD 9,75/ton West Australia-China1)
✓ Vessels will be delivered scrubber ready
Significant equity upside
✓ USD 10 mill initial equity investment gives exposure to USD ~350 mill of asset values (2 firm ships + 6 options)
✓ 200% uplift on the initial equity based on the 2 firm ships if asset values recover 25% 2)
✓ Current Baltic Cape Index 5TC spot rates + 25% premium for modern Newcastlemax would imply TCE of USD
35,000/day, yielding a leveraged cash on cash return of ~40%3)
Lean structure and opportunistic approach
✓ 2020 Bulkers will have a pragmatic and opportunistic approach to realizing profits either through asset sales or taking
part in consolidation when the anticipated recovery in asset values materializes.
✓ Lean corporate structure with all key functions being outsourced to third parties. No salaries and no related party fees
✓ Focus on creating shareholder value
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Ownership Newbuildings
5
Corporate Structure
Contract in place for 2 firm vessels with 2 + 4 options with fixed price
▪ Vessel type: Newcastlemax
▪ Size: 208,000 DWT
▪ Yard: New Times
▪ Design: MARIC – 208KBC-DFOC
▪ Fuel consumption 25,3 tons1) per day @ 12 knots
▪ Price firm vessels USD 44.23 million
▪ Price optional vessels USD 44.73 million
▪ Delivery 2 firm vessels Sept 2019 and Oct 2019
▪ Delivery 6 option vessels Dec 2019 – May 2020
▪ Payment terms: 5%, 5%, 10%, 5%, 10%, 65% on delivery
▪ Ballast water treatment system installed
▪ Reserved space for scrubber installation
2020 Bulkers Ltd[Bermuda]
Vessel owningSPVs
Magni Partners
TitanOpportunities
Fund
SeaquestBuilding supervision
Fredrik Halvorsen2)
50% 20% 20%
Third party technical
manager (tbd)
1) Average between laden and ballast consumption
2) Ownership through Halvorsen’s Fabrikk AS
Otherinvestors
10%
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Sources and uses Assumptions
Uses:
▪ Newbuild price for the initial 2x Newcastlemax vessels of
USD 44.23m each
▪ Fixed supervision cost of USD 500k per vessel payable to
SeaQuest
▪ Working capital of USD 350k to cover pre delivery costs,
legal expenses, accounting and auditors
Sources:
▪ Equity of USD 10 million
▪ Bank debt:1)
▪ 60% LTV
▪ 15 Year profile
▪ 5% interest
6
Sources and uses
Uses Total Per vessel %
Newbuild price 88.46 44.23 98%
Building Supervision 1.00 0.50 1%
Working capital 0.70 0.35 1%
Total 90.2 45,1 100%
Sources Total Per vessel %
Equity raised 10.0 5.0 11%
Future equity required 26.1 13.0 29%
Bank debt (60%) 54,1 27,0 60%
Total 90.2 45.1 100%
1) Company assumtpions.
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Ordering Newcastlemax at historical lows* Asset play with attractive equity upside*
7
Newbuild asset play with asymetric risk/reward
3.0x
6.0x
25.63x
2.0x
3.6x
13.7x
1.7x
2.8x
9.7x
1.5x
2.3x
7.6x
1.0x
10.0x
100.0x
55 70 168
10 year average(excl 2007-08)
10 year average 10 year peak value
Mo
ney m
ult
iple
eq
uit
y i
nv
este
d (
x)
10% equity 20% equity 30% equity 40% equity
* Historical data reflects Clarksons Shipping Intellignece Network Capesize resale values + USD 3 mill to reflect premium for Newcastlemax
Source: Clarksons Platou
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
US
Dm
Newcastlemax, NB, reported * Newcastlemax, NB inf. Adj
2020 Bulkers Newbuild price
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Cash break even Assumptions
▪ Vessel cost and debt as per sources and uses
▪ Opex of USD 5,5k/day payable to third party technical ship
manager
▪ G&A of USD 750/day to cover company overhead, legal,
accounting and auditing costs
8
Cash break even
Key assumptions
All in price USD mill 45,1
Debt (60%) USD mill 27,0
Profile Years 15
Interest % 5,0 %
OPEX USD/day 5 500
G&A USD/day 750
Unlevered break even 6 250
Debt ammortization USD/day 4 940
Interest USD/day 3 705
Cash Break Even 14 895
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FCF to equity yield on various TCE rates
9
Free Cash Flow to Equity Sensitivity
Assumptions: Building supervision USD 500k per ship, working capital USD 350k per ship. 60% LTV, 15 year profile, 5% interest. OPEX USD 5,5k/day, G&A USD 0,75kday, 97% utilization
1) Based on Baltic Cape Index 5TC of USD 27,725k/day + 25% premium for Newcastlemax
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
15000 20000 25000 31000 35000 40000
Current avg spot rates
for Newcastlemax1)
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Lower fuel consumption and higher cargo intake drives TCE earnings
TC Earnings for Maric Design Newcastlemax vs Baltic Cape Index reference vessel West Australia-Qingdao
Key assumptions: Freight: USD 9,75 per ton. HFO price USD 375 per mt. Baltic reference vessel avg consumption at 12 knots 43 mt/day at sea and180’tons cargo intake. Maric Design Newcastlemax avg consumption 25,3mt/day at sea and
208’tons cargo intake
30,200
4,809
8,315 -416 -1,147-1,162
40,600
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Baltic Cape IndexReference Ship
Fuel savings Cargo intake Broker cost Port cost Port days Marec DesignNewcastlemax
US
D/d
ay
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Supply / demand history and outlook
11
We expect 3 years of demand outpacing supply – not seen since early 2000s
Source: Clarksons Platou Securities AS
4%
2%2%
6% 6%7% 7%
7%7%
14%15%
13%
6%
5%
3%
2%
4%
3%
2%
6%
3%
9%
8%
6%
7%
14%
6%
1%
14%
10%
9%9%
5%
-1%
2%
6%
4%
4%
-20,000
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16e 17e 18e 19e
USD
/day
Yo
Y g
row
th (
%)
Capesize rates Net fleet growth Demand growth
Rates up 4,8x
Rates up 2,5x
Rates expected to increase
significantly again
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Asset values at historically low levels % of fleet on order around all time lows
12
Attractive entry point – limited supply growth
Limited new ordering (quarterly) Scrapping remains high
0
40
80
120
160
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17
Va
lues
(USD
m)
Capesize, 5y old, reported Capesize, infl. adj.
0 %
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
Jan
96
Ma
r 9
7
Ma
y 9
8
Jul 9
9
Sep
00
No
v 01
Jan
03
Ma
r 0
4
Ma
y 0
5
Jul 0
6
Sep
07
No
v 08
Jan
10
Ma
r 1
1
Ma
y 1
2
Jul 1
3
Sep
14
No
v 15
Jan
17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan
96
Ma
r 9
7
Ma
y 9
8
Jul 9
9
Sep
00
No
v 01
Jan
03
Ma
r 0
4
Ma
y 0
5
Jul 0
6
Sep
07
No
v 08
Jan
10
Ma
r 1
1
Ma
y 1
2
Jul 1
3
Sep
14
No
v 15
Jan
17
mil
lio
n d
wt
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17
mil
lio
n d
wt
Source: Clarksons Platou Securities AS
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13
Iron ore and coal imports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
05.1
06.1
07.1
08.1
09.1
10.1
11.1
12.1
13.1
14.1
15.1
16.1
17.1
Mill tons
Iron ore Coal
Comments
Iron ore:
Year to date, iron ore imports totalled 896.4 mill tons, up
from 843.1 mill tons (+ 6.3 %) in the same period last
year
Coal:
Year to date, coal imports totalled 226.3 mill tons, up
from 201.8 mill tons (+12.1 %) in the comparable period
last year.
Source: GTIS/Clarksons Platou Research Services
Demand growth has been strong…
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Iron ore ex Brazil is 2.5x the distance vs. Australia
Significant expansion plans for Brazilian miners
14
And is expected to remain strong driven by iron ore trade
Rationale for increased Chinese iron ore imports
Australia
China
Brazil
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2017 2018 2019
Australia BrazilMT • Chinese demand for imported iron ore set stay high due to:
• Brazilian and Australian iron ore has iron contents of > 62% vs
domestic Chinese Iron ore < 20%
• Environmental focus, imported iron ore is less polluting
• High quality iron ore is more economic in steel production
• Record steel production in China leading to heightened demand for high
quality seaborne iron ore
• Chinese implied steel consumption at all time high
• Chinese production all time high at 75 MT in September
• Steel inventories at the lowest level in a decade, down 50% from
2017 peak
• Steel exports in September are down 42% year over year
Source: Fearnleys Securities, Arrow Shipping
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Yard installment structure Capital requirement*
15
Capex schedule
53
107
160
214
35
71
107
143
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2 ships 4 ships 6 ships 8 ships
US
Dm
Debt Equity2017 2018 2019 2020
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Firm Ship #1 4.4 - - 4.4 2.2 - 4.4 28.7 - - - -
Firm Ship #2 4.4 - - 4.4 2.2 - 4.4 - 28.7 - - -
Option ship #1 - 4.5 - - 4.5 2.2 - 4.5 29.1 - - -
Option ship #2 - 4.5 - - 4.5 2.2 - 4.5 - 29.1 - -
Option ship #3 - 2.2 2.2 - 4.5 - 2.2 4.5 - 29.1 - -
Option ship #4 - 2.2 2.2 - - 4.5 2.2 - 4.5 29.1 - -
Option ship #5 - 2.2 2.2 - - 4.5 2.2 - 4.5 - 29.1 -
Option ship #6 - 2.2 2.2 - - 4.5 - 2.2 4.5 - 29.1 -
2 ships 8.8 8.8 8.8 17.7 22.1 22.1 31.0 59.7 88.5 88.5 88.5 88.5
4 ships 8.8 17.8 17.8 26.6 40.0 44.5 53.3 91.0 148.8 177.9 177.9 177.9
6 ships 8.8 22.3 26.7 35.6 53.4 62.4 75.7 117.9 180.2 267.4 267.4 267.4
8 ships 8.8 26.7 35.7 44.5 62.4 80.3 95.8 140.2 211.5 298.7 356.8 356.8
* Assuming 60% debt financing
Founding shareholders are committed to take part in future equity offerings
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Conclusion
16
✓ Newbuild orders placed at historic lows for Newcastlemax ships
✓ Significant leverage through fixed price options and attractive yard terms
✓ Newbuild prices are already rising
✓ Clean and low cost structure with no employees or management fees
✓ Founders are largest shareholders and committed to creating shareholder value
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APPENDIX
17
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Management
18
• The Company and its subsidiaries will initially be managed administratively by its directors.
• Quorum Ltd. has been engaged to provide corporate secretary services in Bermuda.
• Seaquest Marine Project Management Ltd. ("Seaquest") has been engaged to provide newbuilding supervision services.
• NRP Procurator AS has been angaged to provide accounting services.
• PricewaterhouseCoopers AS has been appointed as the Company's auditor.
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Board of Directors
• May 2017 – current: Magni Partners
― Partner, focus on investments within shipping, energy and commodities
• October 2009 – April 2016: Clarksons Platou Securities / Platou Markets
― Partner and Head of Capital Markets
― Member of Executive committee
― Lead USD 8bn of equity capital raisings in the shipping and energy
sectors
• March 2003 – March 2009: Pareto Securities
― Partner, Head of US Sales
― Chairman of the Board for Nordic Partners - Pareto’s US Operations
Magnus Halvorsen
Chairman
John DellaNoce
Director
Jens Martin Jensen
Director
• November 2016 – current: Pillarstone Europe
― Partner, main responsibility shipping portfolio/investmets
― May 2017 – current – Premuda Spa – Board Member
• September 2004 – November 2015: Frontline Ltd / Fredriksen group
― November 2014 – November 2015: Director, Frontline Corporate Svcs. Ltd
― April 2008 – November 2014: CEO and Managing Director, Frontline Mgmt AS
― September 2004 – April 2008: Commercial Director, Frontline Mgmt AS
― Previous Board Member of: Frontline Ltd, Frontline 2012 Ltd, Flex LNG Ltd,
Frontline Shipping Pte Ltd, Frontline Mgmt (Bermuda) Ltd, Seateam
Shipmanagement Pte Ltd
• September 1996 – September 2004: Island Shipbrokers Pte Ltd Singapore
― Partner / Director
• April 1985 – September 1986: A.P Moller / Maersk Group
― Various positions and postings within the group in Copenhagen, Mexico City,
Tokyo and Singapore
• May 2016 – Current: Titan Capital Management Ltd.
― Partner and portfolio manager
― Titan Opportunities Fund hedge funds make credit and equity
investments in shipping, energy, and other cyclical sectors
• July 2006 – October 2015: Goldman Sachs & Co
― Vice President, Distressed Products Group
― Lead analyst globally on investments in energy and financial sectors
― Investments and restructuring included Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc,
Energy Future Holdings and LyondellBasell
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Company Facts
20
• 2020 Bulkers Ltd. Is incorporated as a limited company in Bermuda.
• The Company's authorised share capital is USD 75,000,000, represented by 75,000,000 ordinary shares of USD 1 par value.
• The Company's issued share capital is USD 5,001,000, represented by 5,001,000 shares.
• The Company is resident in Bermuda for tax purposes and has been granted tax exempt status by Bermuda authorities.
• The Company's share is listed on the Norwegian OTC list and can be traded within the Norwegian VPS system.
• The Company has incorporated two subsidiaries, 2020 Bulkers I Inc. and 2020 Bulkers II Inc. in Liberia. Each of these is party to a
shipbuilding contract with New Times Shipbuilding Co. Ltd. For the construction and delivery of one Newcastlemax drybulk vessel.