company presentation | august 2017 · company presentation ... this document contains...
TRANSCRIPT
0.13” / 0.33cm 0.13” / 0.33cm
2 2
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by HelloFresh SE (the “Company“ and, together with its subsidiaries, the “Group”). All material contained in this document is for information purposes only and must not be relied upon for any purpose, and does not purport to be a full or complete description of the Company or the Group. This document does not, and is not intended to, constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, subscribe for or otherwise acquire, any securities of the Company, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with or act as any inducement or recommendation to enter into any contract or commitment or investment decision or other transaction whatsoever. This document is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would require any registration or licensing within such jurisdiction. Persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made by the Company or any other Group company or any other person as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein, for any purpose whatsoever. No responsibility, obligation or liability is or will be accepted by the Company or any of its officers, directors, employees, affiliates, agents or advisers, in relation to any written or oral information provided in this document or in connection with the document. All information in this document is subject to verification, correction, completion, updating and change without notice. Neither the Company nor any other Group company undertakes any obligation to update this document or to correct any inaccuracies in this document. Information contained in this document may be based on estimates or expectations of the Company, and there can be no assurance that these estimates or expectations are or will prove to be accurate. Where any information and statistics are quoted from any external source, such information or statistics should not be interpreted as having been adopted or endorsed by the Company as being accurate. All statements in this report attributable to third party industry experts represent the Company's interpretation of data, research opinion or viewpoints published by such industry experts, and have not been reviewed by them. Each publication of such industry experts speaks as of its original publication date and not as of the date of this document. This document contains forward-looking statements relating to the business, financial performance and results of the Company, the Group or the industry in which the Group operates. These statements may be identified by words such as "expectation", "belief', "estimate", "plan", "target“ or "forecast" and similar expressions, or by their context. Forward-looking statements include statements regarding: strategies, outlook and growth prospects; future plans and potential for future growth; growth for products and services in new markets; industry trends; and the impact of regulatory initiatives. These statements are made on the basis of current knowledge and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. Various factors could cause actual future results, performance or events to differ materially from those described in these statements, and neither the Company nor any other person accepts any responsibility for the accuracy of the opinions expressed in this document or the underlying assumptions. No obligation is assumed to update any forward-looking statements.
0.13” / 0.33cm 0.13” / 0.33cm
3 3
Our mission: we change the way people eat FOREVER!
We believe everyone
deserves honest,
natural, delicious and
healthy food
We celebrate fresh
ingredients and making
magic in the kitchen:
there is a chef in
everyone
Food brings people
together. Good food
allows us to live long.
Great food lets us enjoy
every bite of life
Source: Company information
0.13” / 0.33cm 0.13” / 0.33cm
4 4
#1
#1
#1
#1
#1
We are the largest and the only global player
1.3m active
customers2
Up to 13m meals served per month1
#1 in 7 markets3
>7,500 tons food
handled monthly4
>14.5k recipes in database
53% Q2 YoY
revenue growth
Recently launched5
• Clear market leader in
c.60% of TAM3
representing c.40% of
revenue today
#1
Source: Company information; management estimates 1. As of May 2017. 2. Active customers refers to the number of uniquely identified customers who have received at least one box within the last three months ended June 30, 2017 (including first-time customers, customers who received a free or
discounted box and customers who ordered during the relevant period but cancelled their subscription before period end). 3. Based on management estimate; #1 in markets as indicated on map plus Switzerland. 4. Assuming ~600 grams per meal and up to 13m meals per month, as of May 2017; tonnage might be different from month to month. 5. Within the last 15 months as of June 2017.
• Significantly outpacing
Blue Apron on nearly
every dimension
#2
0.13” / 0.33cm 0.13” / 0.33cm
5 5
HelloFresh's business model combines growth at scale with powerful unit economics
Strong growth with highly predictable consumer behavior
1 From 0.3m active customers in Q1 2015 to 1.3m in Q2 2017 Steady order rate 15% increase in average order value since Q1 2015 Stable retention profile
Attractive target margins at scale through demonstrated operating leverage
2 ~14% points of consistent contribution margin expansion1 over last 6 quarters with significant further upside
Meaningful fixed cost leverage – c. 7pp of Q2 2017 contribution margin2
Mid-term to long-term AEBITDA margin target of 12-15%3
Scalable and cost-efficient customer acquisition model with high marketing ROI
3 Overall constant CACs while significantly scaling customer
acquisitions
>3x ROI on marketing investment within 3 years
Negative working capital with minimal inventory
4 Net source of cash inflow Operating cash flow margin repeatedly higher than
EBITDA margin
Significant top and bottom line growth potential
5 Markets largely underpenetrated
Strong margin potential at scale
Source: Company information 1. Contribution margin is defined as revenue less cost of goods sold and fulfilment expenses, excluding share-based compensation; contribution margin is shown as % of revenue. 2. Relevant expenses represent fixed and overhead expenses. 3. AEBITDA is calculated by adjusting EBITDA for special items and holding fees (special items include share-based compensation); AEBITDA margin is defined as % of revenue; holding fees are eliminated on group level.
0.13” / 0.33cm 0.13” / 0.33cm
6 6
0.3
0.4
0.5 0.6
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9
1.2
1.3
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
As a result of our massive customer growth…
2015 2016 2017
ACTIVE CUSTOMERS1
(M)
Q1 effect
Source: Company information 1. Active customers refers to the number of uniquely identified customers who have received at least one box within the last three months (including first-time customers, customers who received a free or discounted box and
customers who ordered during the relevant period but cancelled their subscription before period end).
0.13” / 0.33cm 0.13” / 0.33cm
7 7
..we are now the largest player globally1
9 13 19 29
45
67
86
107
141 150 147
159
205
230
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2015 2016 2017
REVENUE2
(€M)
Source: Company information 1. Compared to BA Q2 2017 revenue of $238m. 2. Revenue post promotional discounts, customer credits, refunds and excluding VAT.
0.13” / 0.33cm 0.13” / 0.33cm
8 8
42.7
44.8 45.0 45.9
46.8
48.3 48.5 49.1 48.8 49.2
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
3.7 3.7 3.5
3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6
3.8 3.6
3.7
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Our strong customer base is characterized by very stable order rates and increasing order value
STABLE ORDER RATES INCREASING AVERAGE ORDER VALUE
AVERAGE ORDER RATES1 AVERAGE ORDER VALUE (€)2
2015 2017 2016 2015 2016 2017
Stable
Source: Company information 1. Average order rate is defined as number of deliveries divided by number of active customers in a given period. 2. Average order value is defined as revenue before refunds divided by number of deliveries in a given period.
0.13” / 0.33cm 0.13” / 0.33cm
9 9
Our business model provides for highly attractive CLV / CAC dynamics and customer economics
€82
6mth 12mth 18mth 24mth 30mth 36mth
>3x
>2x
>1x
Avg. CAC
€82 invested in marketing returns >€250 of cumulative profit contribution after 3 years
CLV1 AND CAC2
Source: Company information 1. The cumulative customer lifetime value (CLV) reflects cumulative revenue per customer and cohort acquired between 2014 and 2016 multiplied by our contribution margin as % of revenue for Q2 2017, adjusted for the level of
discounting in a given period. For a customer to be included in the calculation for a particular column, the length of time that has elapsed since the customer first purchased from us must be at least as long as the time period indicated for such column. Customers acquired after December 31, 2016 are not included in any column calculations because their first purchase occurred less than six months before the end of the second quarter of 2017.
2. CAC (customer acquisition costs) is calculated as total marketing spend excluding customer care and overhead expenses for the period from January 1, 2014 to June 30, 2017 divided by total number of new customers acquired over that period.
0.13” / 0.33cm 0.13” / 0.33cm
10 10
Attractive unit economics with strategic goal to break-even within the next 15 months
2015 2016 2017
CONTRIBUTION MARGIN1
8.2%
14.3%
17.8% 17.4% 18.2%
20.3% 22.1%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Source: Company information 1. Contribution margin is defined as revenue less cost of goods sold and fulfilment expenses, excluding share-based compensation; contribution margin is shown as % of revenue. 2. AEBITDA is calculated by adjusting EBITDA for special items and holding fees (special items include share-based compensation); AEBITDA margin is defined as % of revenue; holding fees are eliminated on group level.
% REVENUE
GROUP AEBITDA1
% REVENUE
2015 2016 2017
(32.1%)
(19.3%)
(12.3%)
(14.0%)
(10.3%)
(14.4%)
(7.4%)
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
0.13” / 0.33cm 0.13” / 0.33cm
11 11
US: industry leading growth and consistent margin expansion
Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Active Customer (m) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8
Average Order Rate 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4
Average Order Value (€) 54.8 56.1 55.7 56.0 57.1 53.5 53.0
OPERATIONAL AND FINANCIAL KPIs
36.1 61.5 71.5 74.3 79.5
120.1 143.3
Source: Company information 1. Revenue post promotional discounts, customer credits, refunds and excluding VAT; YoY stands for year on year and compares the respective quarter with the same quarter of the previous year. 2. Contribution margin is defined as revenue less cost of goods sold and fulfilment expenses, excluding share-based compensation. 3. Contribution margin is shown as % of revenue. 4. AEBITDA is calculated by adjusting EBITDA for special items and holding fees (special items include share-based compensation); AEBITDA margin is defined as % of revenue; holding fees are eliminated on group level.
(20.0) (15.6) (12.5) (11.9)
(7.9)
(22.8)
(8.5)
Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
(4.9)
2.8 9.3 9.5 12.2
22.3 31.4
568% 371% 213% 133% 120% 95% 100% Revenue1
(€m)
%
%
%
YoY revenue growth1
(14%) 5% 13% 13% 15% 19% 22% Contribution margin2 (€m)
(55%) (25%) (18%) (16%) (10%) (19%) (6%) AEBITDA4
(€m)
Revenue2,3
Revenue
0.13” / 0.33cm 0.13” / 0.33cm
12 12
International: operations at scale benefit from unit economics enhancement
Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Active Customer (m) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Average Order Rate 4.1 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.3
Average Order Value (€) 42.4 41.5 43.0 42.7 43.1 43.5 43.9
(13.6) (12.0) (3.9) (6.2) (5.4) (3.9) (4.2)
Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
14.2 17.3 17.9 16.6 17.4 20.3 20.6
70.8 79.9 78.6 72.4 79.3 85.2 86.9
204% 147% 78% 35% 12% 7% 11% Revenue1
(€m)
%
% Revenue2,3
% Revenue
YoY revenue growth1
20% 22% 23% 23% 22% 24% 24% Contribution margin2 (€m)
(19%) (15%) (5%) (9%) (7%) (5%) (5%) AEBITDA4
(€m)
OPERATIONAL AND FINANCIAL KPIs
Source: Company information 1. Revenue post promotional discounts, customer credits, refunds and excluding VAT; YoY stands for year on year and compares the respective quarter with the same quarter of the previous year. 2. Contribution margin is defined as revenue less cost of goods sold and fulfilment expenses, excluding share-based compensation. 3. Contribution margin is shown as % of revenue. 4. AEBITDA is calculated by adjusting EBITDA for special items and holding fees (special items include share-based compensation); AEBITDA margin is defined as % of revenue; holding fees are eliminated on group level.