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Page 1: COMPANY UPDATE BARCLAYS CEO ENERGY-POWER CONFERENCE · barclays ceo energy-power conference royal dutch shell 8 september 2015 . copyright of royal dutch shell plc 8 september, 2015

1 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 8 September, 2015

COMPANY UPDATE BARCLAYS CEO ENERGY-POWER CONFERENCE

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL 8 SEPTEMBER 2015

Page 2: COMPANY UPDATE BARCLAYS CEO ENERGY-POWER CONFERENCE · barclays ceo energy-power conference royal dutch shell 8 september 2015 . copyright of royal dutch shell plc 8 september, 2015

2 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 8 September, 2015

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

BEN VAN BEURDEN CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

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3 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 8 September, 2015

DEFINITIONS & CAUTIONARY NOTE NOT FOR RELEASE, PRESENTATION, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN, INTO OR FROM ANY JURISIDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF THE RELEVANT LAWS OF SUCH JURISDICTION.

The information set out in this presentation is not intended to form the basis of any contract. By attending (whether in person, by telephone or webcast) this presentation or by reading the presentation slides, you agree to the conditions set out below. This presentation (including any oral briefing and any question-and-answer in connection with it) is not intended to, and does not constitute, represent or form part of any offer, invitation or solicitation of any offer to purchase, otherwise acquire, subscribe for, sell or otherwise dispose of, any securities or the solicitation of any vote or approval in any jurisdiction. No shares are being offered to the public by means of this presentation. You should conduct your own independent analysis of Royal Dutch Shell plc ("Shell"), BG Group plc ("BG") and the recommended combination of BG and Shell ("the Combination"), including consulting your own independent advisers in order to make an independent determination of the suitability, merits and consequences of the Combination. The release, presentation, publication or distribution of this presentation in jurisdictions other than the United Kingdom may be restricted by law and therefore any persons who are subject to the laws of any jurisdiction other than the United Kingdom should inform themselves about and observe any applicable requirements. Any failure to comply with applicable requirements may constitute a violation of the laws and/or regulations of any such jurisdiction. This presentation is being made available only to persons who fall within the exemptions contained in Article 19 and Article 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 and persons who are otherwise permitted by law to receive it. This presentation is not intended to be available to, and must not be relied upon, by any other person.

None of Shell, its shareholders, subsidiaries, affiliates, associates, or their respective directors, officers, partners, employees, representatives and advisers (the “Relevant Parties”) makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation, or otherwise made available, nor as to the reasonableness of any assumption contained herein or therein, and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect, consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. Nothing contained herein or therein is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation, whether as to the past or the future and no reliance, in whole or in part, should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information contained herein or therein. Further, nothing in this presentation should be construed as constituting legal, business, tax or financial advice. None of the Relevant Parties has independently verified the material in this presentation.

No statement in this presentation (including any statement of estimated synergies) is intended as a profit forecast or estimate for any period and no statement in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that cash flow or earnings per share for the current or future financial years would necessarily match or exceed the historical published cash flow or earnings per share for Shell or BG, as appropriate.

Statements of estimated cost savings and synergies relate to future actions and circumstances which, by their nature, involve risks, uncertainties and contingencies. As a result, the cost savings and synergies referred to may not be achieved, may be achieved later or sooner than estimated, or those achieved could be materially different from those estimated. For the purposes of Rule 28 of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers (“Takeover Code”), quantified financial benefits statements contained in this presentation are the responsibility of Shell and the Shell directors. Neither these statements nor any other statement in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast or interpreted to mean that the combined group's earnings in the first full year following implementation of the Combination, or in any subsequent period, would necessarily match or be greater than or be less than those of Shell or BG for the relevant preceding financial period or any other period. The bases of belief, principal assumptions and sources of information in respect of any quantified financial benefit statement are set out in the announcement published on 8 April, 2015 in connection with the Combination.

This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell plc and of the proposed combination. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell plc to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions including as to future potential cost savings, synergies, earnings, cash flow, return on average capital employed, production and prospects. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell plc and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell plc’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2014 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov). These risk factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 8 September, 2015. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all.

We use certain terms in this presentation, such as discovery potential, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330. Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions. Organic: Our use of the term "organic" includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact. Resources plays: Our use of the term "resources plays" refers to tight, shale and coal bed methane oil and gas acreage.

The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell plc” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Companies over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and companies over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.

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SUMMARY

Integrated business + performance drive supporting results:

12 months CCS earnings $16.2 billion; CFFO $35.6 billion; dividend + buy-back $14 billion

Dividend + buy-back commitment

$1.88/share 2015; at least $1.88/share 2016

At least $25 billion buy-back expected 2017-2020

Pulling levers to manage returns in prolonged oil price downturn

Reducing operating costs and capital investment

Restructuring; asset sales; deliver new projects

Combination with BG on track for early ‘16 completion

‘Grow to simplify’: a more resilient and competitive Shell

COMPETITIVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY PROJECT DELIVERY

CCS earnings excluding identified items

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OIL PRICE + OUTLOOK

Q3 to date is up to 27th of August

OPEC policy change and non-OPEC growth

Medium-term supply/demand fundamentals remain positive

Responding with urgency + determination

Resilience in today’s oil prices

Addressing Shell’s cost structure

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2010 2015

Oil prices Brent in $ per barrel

Global financial crisis

OPEC policy change

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-5

0

5

10

15

-10

0

10

20

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 20154Q rolling

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

10

20

30

40

50

2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 20154Q rolling

0

10

20

30

0

10

20

2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 20154Q rolling

H1 2015 DELIVERY

CCS earnings + ROACE excluding identified items

Earnings + ROACE $ billion

Cash flow $ billion

Dividend, buyback + gearing $ billion

%

%

Upstream Downstream

Corporate/Other

Dividend announced Buyback

CFFO CFFI ROACE (RHS)

Free cash flow (RHS)

Gearing (RHS)

$ billion

Gearing range Integrated business + results

Performance drive

Balance sheet strength

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

1

2

3

Q113 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q114 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q115 Q20

10

20

30

SHELL INTEGRATED GAS PERFORMANCE

* Shell LNG: includes Shell’s entitled LNG sales through our JV’s and our LNG trading arm

2014 Shell LNG* sales + pricing linkage Million tonnes per annum

Short-term ‘spot’

Gas hubs (e.g. NBP,

HH)

Oil linked:

3-6 months

lag

10-15%

20-25%

65% Term contracts (2-20 years)

2011 2012 2015+ Pluto 2009 2007 Prelude Sakhalin NLNG T6 Pluto Gorgon Qatargas 4

Earnings excluding identified items and excluding AUD deferred tax impact

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

3.5

Integrated gas earnings $ billion $ per unit

Earnings Brent $/bbl (RHS)

LNG JKM $/mmbtu (RHS)

40

60

80

100

120

0

3.5

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FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK AND PRIORITIES

* For assumptions see 2.7 announcement of 8 April, 2015

Grow cash flow from operations + free cash flow

Credit rating a priority: debt pay-down

Dividend policy

At least $25 billion share buybacks expected 2017-2020*

Priorities for cash Financial framework

1. Debt reduction

2. Dividends

3. Buy-backs + capital investment

Cash performance

Investment

Balance sheet

Pay-out

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PULLING LEVERS TO MANAGE SHELL IN THE DOWNTURN

Pulling our financial levers

Balance sheet

Reduce operating costs

Reduce capital investment

Portfolio restructuring

Asset sales

Deliver new projects and free cash flow

0

10

20

0

20

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 15Q2

0

25

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 15Q2

Cash performance

Investment

Balance sheet

CFFO

Pay-out

0

7

14

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 15Q2

Cash dividend Buyback

Gearing

0

20

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 15Q2

CFFI

$ billion

%

$ billion

$ billion

$ billion

Net debt

4Q rolling

4Q rolling 4Q rolling

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0

25

50

BALANCE SHEET

Competitive gearing position %

Cash flow surplus $ billion, 4Q rolling Q2 2015

-10

0

10

20

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Cash flow from operations

Asset sales

Capex + equity acc. invest. + acq

Dividend and buy back

Shell Peer group

Implementing a competitive balance sheet strategy

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95

100

105

110

115

120

125

REDUCE OPERATING COSTS

Operating costs + outlook $ billion

Competitive operating cost performance Index Q4 2010=100; 4Q rolling

Continuous improvement drive

Supply chain re-set

Targeted programmes: Oil Products, North-America onshore, North Sea, others

Lower overheads: finance, commercial + IT

Shell Peer group*

2015 2014 2013 2012 2011

* BP excludes Macondo

Operating cost reduction 2014-15: $4 billion

2015 job reduction 6,500

Further cost reduction 2016

0

25

50

2013 2014 H115 2015 E

Full year actual

-10%

2015 potential

4Q rolling

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0

20

40

60

2013 2014 2015E 2016E0

20

40

60

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

REDUCE CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Capital investment $ billion

Capital investment - sector $ billion, 4Q rolling

Shell Peer group

Revised outlook for Shell 2015: ~$30 billion

2016: Shell + BG ~$35 billion

Continuing to review options

Shell BG

Project re-phasing / deferral

Supply chain savings

Dilutions + exits

Combination

-20%

-20%

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LNG Canada

TAKING STEPS TO MANAGE CAPITAL INVESTMENT

FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES

RESOURCES PLAYS

DEEP WATER

INTEGRATED GAS

UPSTREAM ENGINE

DOWNSTREAM ENGINE

2014 2015 2016

Appomattox

Scotford debottl.

Vito

Bonga South West

Al Karaana

Browse LNG

Arrow greenfield LNG

Majnoon FFD

Elba LNG

Val d’Agri ph2 Bokor

Pennsylvania chemicals

China chemicals

Geismar alpha olefins

Carmon Creek ph3-4

FID Cancelled/divest

ADNOC expiry

Wheatstone LNG

MLNG Dua

Potential FID

2017+

US GTL

2013

Abadi – redesign

Pernis de-asphalting

Carmon Creek ph1-2

Bab

Taking hard choices

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DRIVING LOWER COST IN NEW DEVELOPMENTS

Launched P&T change programme Example: Appomattox FID July 2015

Standardise: Shell’s 7th 4-column host in GOM

20% cost reduction into FID

Upfront planning; fewer wells; supply chain

~$55 per barrel NPV break-even

Appomattox 175,000 boe/d Shell 79%

Goal zero: No harm, no leaks

Improve capital efficiency >$1 billion 2015; multi-billion opportunity

Affordable technology Drives future value creation

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PORTFOLIO RESTRUCTURING

Resources plays Oil Products

Upstream engine

Restructuring $77 billion capital employed

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PROGRESS WITH RESTRUCTURING

ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items; asset sales include MLP

Potential for sustained 10-12% ROACE + $10 billion p.a. CFFO

Self-help + improved joint venture performance

Cost + portfolio drive

2013-14: restructure Americas

2015+: restructure International

Reduced spending

Downstream Resources plays $ billion $ billion %

0

2

4

6

2013 2014 2015E

-30%

-35%

Americas International

0

5

10

15

0

5

10

15

2011 2012 2013 2014 Q2154Q rolling

Cash flow ROACE (RHS)

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0

5

10

15

20

2010 - 2011 2012 - 2013 2014 - 2015E

ASSET SALES

Progressing divestments in 2015 despite weaker market

Asset sales add focus $ billion

Woodside 9.5% Australia DS Wheatstone LNG BC-10 dilution

Woodside 10% Stanlow refinery Shell Chile

Elba LNG UK retail others

Prelude dilution Various DS others

Groundbirch dilution Prelude dilution Nigeria onshore

Haynesville + Pinedale Italy DS MLP Nigeria onshore

Upstream Downstream

~$20 billion asset sales 2014-’15

LPG NWE Various DS others

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DELIVER NEW PROJECTS + FREE CASH FLOW

Kashagan ph1

Gorgon

Prelude

Appomattox

Schiehallion

Cardamom

Mars B

Bonga NW

Gumusut-Kakap

High-margin production

Capex to free cash flow growth

-10

-5

0

5

10

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-10

-5

0

5

10

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-10

-5

0

5

10

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

$70 oil price

Capex

Potential FCF $70 oil price

$90 oil price

Top 10 Shell project start-ups 2014+ Potential cash flow in $ billion

Clair ph2

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DEEP WATER GULF OF MEXICO INVESTING IN ATTRACTIVE GROWTH

~50 kboe/d FPSO delivery to Gulf in Q1 2016

Initial two subsea wells drilled to TD

2016 start-up

~175 kboe/d

650 million boe resources

Start-up end of decade

Upside potential with Rydberg + Gettysburg tie-backs

Stones FID 2013 Appomattox FID 2015

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SHELL + BG SUMMARY

Further reduces our cash breakeven Enhances dividend potential + delivers buy-backs

Accelerates our strategy Value uplift from Shell capabilities at larger scale

‘Grow to simplify’ More resilient and more competitive company

Enhanced free cash flow

LNG & deep water leader

Springboard to change Shell

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SHELL + BG: TRANSACTION UPDATE

Transaction Announcement

US FTC approval

Integration planning team established

CADE approval

<< 2015 2016 >>

Early 2016 Complete transaction

On track for completion in early 2016, as planned

Good progress on anti-trust and regulatory filing processes

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Portfolio + divestment planning

Market strategy update

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Combination 2020

SPRINGBOARD TO CHANGE SHELL: ‘GROW TO SIMPLIFY’

1 Iraq, Nigeria onshore (SPDC), Kazakhstan, Arctic, heavy oil, resources plays

$ billion

0

50

100

150

200

2014Shell

capital employed

Integrated Gas

Deep Water

Longer term1

Downstream +

upstream engine

20 10 0 $ billion

Shell 2014

CFFO/potential in $ billion

Other ~$10 billion p.a.

3 pillars ~$15-20 billion each

Simpler, more

focused company

More resilient + competitive Shell

Predictable + structured growth funnel

Longer term1

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0

200

400

600

2014 Combined potential ~end of decade

SHELL + BG: DEEP WATER AND LNG

Deep water: Brazil LNG thousand boe per day

Shell BG Combination

Shell and Petrobras: leading global deep-water

companies

Strategic + profitable position in giant oil province

Shell deep-water and oil trading capabilities

New LNG supply: Atlantic basin + Australia

Combination of two world-class trading + marketing portfolios

Potential to re-shape next generation growth

QCLNG

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DIVIDEND TRACK RECORD + COMMITMENT

Managing dividend through cycle

Balance sheet capacity

More levers to pull if macro conditions deteriorate

Shell portfolio development to drive break-even lower over time

BG combination further enhances Shell’s dividend capacity

Dividend track record $ billion

0

4

8

12

2006 2009 2012 2015

Dividends announced

Dividend commitment: 2015 $1.88 per share 2016 at least $1.88 per share

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0

20

40

60

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-10

0

10

20

30

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0

10

20

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

CONTINUED DRIVE TO IMPROVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

Free cash flow: cash flow from operations less cash used in investing activities ROACE underlying: European companies: CCS basis excluding identified items. US companies: reported earnings excluding special non-operating items. Capital employed on gross debt basis

Cash flow from operations $ billion

Free cash flow $ billion

ROACE - underlying %

Shell Peer group Q215

4Q rolling

Driving competitive performance

Q215 4Q rolling

Q215 4Q rolling

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SUMMARY

Integrated business + performance drive supporting results:

12 months CCS earnings $16.2 billion; CFFO $35.6 billion; dividend + buy-back $14 billion

Dividend + buy-back commitment

$1.88/share 2015; at least $1.88/share 2016

At least $25 billion buy-back expected 2017-2020

Pulling levers to manage returns in prolonged oil price downturn

Reducing operating costs and capital investment

Restructuring; asset sales; deliver new projects

Combination with BG on track for early ‘16 completion

‘Grow to simplify’: a more resilient and competitive Shell

COMPETITIVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY PROJECT DELIVERY

CCS earnings excluding identified items

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QUESTIONS & ANSWERS BARCLAYS CEO ENERGY-POWER CONFERENCE ROYAL DUTCH SHELL 8 SEPTEMBER 2015

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COMPANY UPDATE BARCLAYS CEO ENERGY-POWER CONFERENCE

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL 8 SEPTEMBER 2015