Comparative Science, Technology, and Innovation Systems

in Developing-Country Agriculture

What Can We Measure and What Can We Not?

David J Spielman International Food Policy Research Institute

Washington, DC April 19, 2013

Metrics and measurements

• Technical & economic indicators • Innovation system indicators • Measurement issues

Technical & economic indicators Inputs • Public investment in agricultural R&D

– Pardey & Roseboom (1989); Pardey & Beintema (2000); Beintema et al. (2012)

Outputs • New varieties, practices, technologies, systems • Publications, patents, and variety registrations

Outcomes • Changes in cereal, livestock yields; natural resource stocks • Changes in agricultural total factor productivity change (Coelli & Rao 2003)

Impacts • Rates of returns to agricultural R&D

– Alston, Norton, & Pardey (1995); Alston et al. (2000)

• Contribution of R&D to productivity growth – Evenson & Gollin (2003); Evenson & Rosegrant (2003)

• Contribution of R&D to poverty reduction – Fan, Hazell & Thorat (2000); Hazell & Haddad (2001); Adato, Meinzen-Dick & Suseela (2007)

Input indicators: Public expenditure on agricultural R&D

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

Cons

tant

(200

5) U

S$ m

PPP

Sub-Saharan Africa (45)

China

India

Asia & Pacific (26)

Brazil

Latin America & Caribbean (28)

West Asia & North Africa (13)

Source: Beintema & Stads (2012); ASTI (2012)

Output indicators: R&D on improved nutritional/quality traits

In regulatory

In research articles

Source: Graff, Zilberman, & Bennett (2010)

In initial field trials In advanced field trials

Output indicators: Contributions of genetic improvement to yield growth

51%

83%

56%

23%

66%

88%

69%

28%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Latin America Asia Middle East/NorthAfrica

Sub-Saharan Africa

Share of area to modern varieties (1998)

Total genetic improvement contribution to yield growth (1965-1998, % per year)

Sources: Renkow & Byerlee (2010); Evenson & Gollin (2003)

Outcome indicators: Agricultural TFP index for sub-Saharan Africa (1961=100)

Source: Fuglie & Rada (2012)

Agricultural innovation system

Agroprocessors

Exporters

Producer organizations

Input suppliers

Credit agencies

Land agencies

Government policy and regulatory frameworkInformal institutions, practices, behaviors, and attitudes

Consumers

Standards agencies

FarmersNational extension and business development services

National agricultural research system

National education andtraining organizations

Farmers & entrepreneurs

Bridging and coordination organizations

Science, technology, and innovation systems

Source: World Bank (2012)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Bangladesh

Burkina Faso

Senegal

Ghana

Kenya

India

China

South Africa

Thailand

Brazil

United States

Finland

Index (1-7)

Source: World Economic Forum (2013)

Global competitiveness index

Knowledge economy index

Source: World Bank (2012)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Finland

United States

Brazil

Thailand

South Africa

China

India

Kenya

Ghana

Senegal

Burkina Faso

Bangladesh

Index score (1−10)

ICT Education Innovation Economic Incentive Regime

BE

CZ

DK

DE

EE

HR

ES

FR IE

IT

CY EL

LT

LU

HU MT

NL AT

PL

PT

SI

SK

FI

SE

UK

BG RO

TR

IS

NO

US

JP

CH

LV

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Sum

mar

y In

nova

tion

Inde

x (0

−1)

Average growth rate of SII

Dotted lines show EU25 mean performance.

Innovation Leaders

Catching-up

Followers

Trailing

European innovation scoreboard

Source: Hollanders and Arundel 2004; CEC (2006); Hollanders, pers. comm.

• Epistemological debate – Can quantitative measures adequately explain a system that is highly

complex, context-specific, and endogenous?

• Methodological debate – How robust is the selection, construction, and interpretation of

indicators?

• Policy debate

– Can measurements of innovation influence policy change?

Challenges in measuring science, technology, and innovation

Thank you