complexity aa sept2015
TRANSCRIPT
Adapting to a complex world:Implications for organisations
Jean BoultonVisiting Senior Research Fellow, DSPS
Director, Claremont Management Consultants Ltd
September [email protected]
www.embracingcomplexity.com
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1. The science of why we need to be adaptive
2. Implications for organisations
02/05/2023
1. The science of why we need to be adaptive
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Section 1: Traditional science
Traditional mechanical science - Newton
Things work like a machine -predictable, clear cause –and-effect links.
The machine view
StandardiseBest practicePlan and define processesCause and effect (measure)Economies of scale
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Evolutionary science
Things emerge when something changes that suits the local conditions –
What sustains is the system /ecologybest adapted to the local situation at the time
And the future builds on what is already there..
The future cannot be known in advance
Change and adaptability require diversity and messinessCooperation
(more than competition)
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Complexity science – how physics explains evolution
The machine view
Complexity – how physics explained evolutionThe science of open evolving adaptive systems
•The world is deeply inter-connected•Local detail and history matters•Events and variation and experiment can tip us into new eras
StandardiseBest practicePlan and define processesCause and effect (measure)Economies of scale
We desire a controllable, predictable and measurable world – but desiring does not make it so
Interlude: has your life gone to plan?
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What gets in the way?The world changedActions of othersThe legacy of the pastLearning
CatastropheUnintended consequencesChance
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3. Implications for organisations
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What is needed to adapt to local and changing circumstances-to a VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous) world?
•Look back: build on the past
•Look around and up and down: look widely and at all the issues and work systemically not thematically
•Look ahead: spot ‘critical junctures’ and be able to modify priorities accordingly
1. Undertake ongoing context analysis
Working with complexity – context analysis
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The future –weak signals of changefore-sighting critical juctures
macro
meso
micro
The past –History – events, culture, what worked, key players
The presentWide-ranging factors – economic, environmental, politicalMacro to micro – up and down
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What is needed to adapt to local and changing circumstances-to a VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous)
2. Be adaptive....but not just reactive...•Be able to seize opportunities, respond to unexpected problems•Look for weak signals of change•Experiment •Share results and learn by sharing – but don’t set approaches in stone
•Weave ‘intentions’ and plan in detail short term, review regularly•Real effort to understand the background and context •Build relationships and work with others and in cognizance of others’ work•A more flexible way of showing effectiveness – emergent as well as pre-set measures•A more devolved organisation•Within broad guidelines and intentions allow local interpretation
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Summary
•Complexity theory is how physics explains evolution – the science of open systems
•It legitimates a more systemic, flexible and adaptive way of working;
•It emphasises that history, context and foresighting are critical aspects of working effectively
•It is a difficult mindset change because it emphasises that we can know less and predict less and attribute less that we hoped.
•However Embracing Complexity , being adaptive, can lead to greater effectiveness, increased efficiency and more engaged and empowered professionals...
•If the world is complex, then acting congruently with that complexity can be simpler and more effective than trying to control a machine that does not exist.