Computer Applications in the Automation ofShipyard Operation and Ship Design, V

Computer Ap plicatiolts in Ship pingandShipbuilding

NORTH-HOLLAND _AMSTERDAM . NEW YORK . OXFORD

Compfier Ap plicatiolr in the Automntion ofShipyard Operation and Ship Design,V

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lFlP/IFAC Fifth International ConferenceTrieste, ltaly,16-20 September, 1985

Edited by

P. BANDAFincant ier iTrieste, ltaly

C. KUOUn iversity of StrathclydeG lasgow, Un i ted Ki ngdom

G. DI FILIPPOFincant ier iTrieste, l taly

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All rights reserved. No part of this pubtication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, ortransmitted, in any form or byanY means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner.

ISBN: 0 444 87820 3

Publ ished by:ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBLISHERS B.V.P.O. Box 19911000 BZ AmsterdamThe Ne the r l ands

Sole distributors forthe U.S.A. and Canada:ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBLISHING COMPANY, INC.52 Vanderbi l t AvenueNewYork, N.Y. 10017U.S.A.

Dur ing the preparat ion o f the t rade ed i t ion o f th is vo lume i t was dec ided to add G. Di F i l ippo,s name as co-ed i torin recogni t ion o f h is work as Chai rman of the Local Organis ing Commit tee.

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PRINTED IN THE NETHERLANDS

FOREWORD

The series of intemational conferences on Computer Applications in the Automatbn of Shipyard Operation and ShipDesign, known as ICCAS Conferences, began in 1973 in Tokyo. ICCAS 73 was followed by thee equally succesfulBtherings in GothenburS, Sweden, in 1976, Glasgow, Scotland, in 1979 and at Annapolis, U.S.A., in 1982. This year wehad great pleasure in welcoming delegates to Trieste, Italy, for ICCAS 85.

The past twelve years have sen many changes in shipbuilding and shipping antl these have had a profound impact on thetwo industries. Ffust there was the shift in shipbuilding activities from Europe to the Far East, with Japan and now Koreadominating the order books. Secondly there has been a series ofirises - notably the oil crisis of 1973, ancl the severeworldwide economic recesion of the past four years. The effects of all this make it very difficult to predic the futuewith any degree of conlidence. What is certain, however, is that everyon associated with shipbuilding and shipping needsto be very flexible and extremely efficient, and the ffective use of the computer is one of the factors that will help usto face the future with mnJidence. It is, therefore, not surprising tlnt the organising committees of all tlre previousICCAS conferences have enjoyed such excellent support, since the basic aim of all four has been to encourage the practicalapplication of computing to all aspects of ship technology.

In the conteK of ICCAS conferences the Intemational Programme Committee for ICCAS 85 achieved one or two "records".The ffust n'as that, regardless of locatbn, its committee meetings attncted the largest attendance so far. A second wasthat it received the laqest ever number of abstracts and it was a very difficult task for the members to limit their choiceto a maximum ofjust over fifty papen for tlle technical sessions. We should like to apologise to those whose papers werenot successful.

The programme contained fifteen technical sessions and three panel discussions and offered a broad range of subjects fortlre interest of the participants. One new session topic was "ship operations and how these affect design". It is hopedthat the papers Presented in this sssion will lead to even greater co{peration between ship designen anit ship operators.Other qpecial features included the exposure of participants to recent advances in the use of expert systems in shipdesign and practical applications of flexible manufacturing techniques and robots.

What of future trends? We have to accept tlat the situation will continue to be difficult and is Ukely to become even moretlemanding. Thb means that tho computer will be required to make an even bigger contntution to advanced productbntechliques and in facilitating the construction of special designs.

The conference was sponsored by IFIP - The International Federation for Information Processing, and IFAC - The Inter.natbnal Federatbn of Automatic Control, to both of which the lnternational Organisrtg Committee would like to ex-press its gratitude. The Committee would also like to thank Fincantiei (Cantieri Nava.li ltalitni 5.P.,4. / ?liesr? for showingits sensitivity to the need for technological improvment in shipbuilding and shippurg activities by making experts andmeans available to help toward the succss of the conference.

Our own grateful thanks 8o to the members of the International Oryanising Committee who devoted time and effort toprovide leadership for the conference, and to the members of the Iocal Organising Committee who worked so hard toensure that every aspect of ICCAS 85 reflected its profesional nature and would be worthy of its participants.

Finally, we should like to express our thanks to the Autonomous Region of Friuli Venezia Giulia, the Province of Trieste,the Chamber of Commerce of Trieste, the Municipality of Trieste, the Public Tourist Oryanisatbn of Trieste and itsCoastal Region, and the Savings Bank of Trieste, all of which contntuted generously torvards the high organisationalexPenses, thus making Possible the padicipatbn of a wide range of technical expeds from all over the world.P. BandaChairman ofICCAS 85, IP.C.

\ r /^\f Iu a /

I

C. KuoChairman of the

IFIP Working Group for Marine Industry

c. Di FitippoChairman of the

Local Organising Committee

FOREWORD

The series of intematbnal conferences on Computer Applications in the Automatbn of Shipyard Operation and ShipDesign, known as ICCAS Conferences, began in 1973 in Tokyo. ICCAS 73 was followed by three equally succesfulgBtherings in Gothenburg, Sweden, in 19?6, Glasgow, Scotland, in 1979 and at Annapolis, U.S.A., in 1982. This year wehad great pleasure in welcoming delegates to Trieste, Italy, for ICCAS 85.

The past twelve years have seen many changes in shipbuilding and shipping and these have had a profound impact on thetwo industries. First there was the shift in shipbuilding activities from Europe to the Far East, with Japan and now Koreadominating the order book. Secondly there has been a sries of crises - notably the oil crisis of 1973, and the severeworldwide economic recession of the past four yean. The effects of all this make it very difficult to predic tle futuewith any degree of confidence. What is certain, however, is that everyone associated with slripbuilding and shipping needsto be very flexible and extremly efficient, and the effective use of the computer is one of the factors that $/ill help usto face the future with conJidence. It is, therefore, not surprising tlat the organising committees of all the previousICCAS conferences have enjoyed such excellent support, since the basic aim of all four bas been to encourage the practicalapplicdion of computing to all aspects of ship technology.

In tJre context of ICCAS conferences the Intematbnal Pmgramme Committee for ICCAS 85 achieved one or two "records".The ffust was that, regailless of location, its committee meetings attmcted ttre largest attendance so far. A second wasthat it received the largest ever number of abstracts and it was a very difficult task for the members to lirnit their choiceto a maximum ofjust over fifty papers for the technical sessions. We should like to apologise to those whos pape$ werenot successful.

The programme mntained fifteen technical sessions and three panel discussions and offered a broad range of subjects fort}re interest of the participants. One new sssion topic was "ship opemtions and how thes affect design". It is hopedthat the papers presented in this sssion will lead to even greater co-operation between ship designers anal slfp operators.Other special features included the exposure of padicipant$ to recent advances in the use of expert systems in shipdesign and practical applications of flexible manufacturing techniques and robots.

What of future trends? We have to accept that the situation will continue to be difficult and is likely to become even moredemanding. This means that the computer will be required to make an even bigger contntution to advanced prcductbntechniques and in facilitating the construction of special designs.

The conference was sponsored by IFIP - The Intematbnal Federation for Information Processing, and IFAC - The Inter-national Federatbn of Automatic Control, to both of which the lntemational Organisng Committee would like to ex-press its gratitude. The Committee would also like to thank Fincantieri (Cantieri Navali ltaliani S.P.A. ) Triestefor show:fflgits sensitivity to the need for technological improvement in shipbuilding and shippurg activities by making experts andmeans available to help toward the success of the conference.

Our own grateful thalks go to the members of the Interiationsl Organising Cornmittee who devotetl time and effort toprovide leadership for the conferenc, and to the members of the Local Organising Committee who worked so hard toensure that every aspect of ICCAS 85 reflected its profesional nature and would be worthy of its participants.

Finally, we should like to express our thanks to the Autonomous Region of Friuli Venezia Giulia, the Province of Trieste,the Chamber of Commerce of Trieste, the Municipality of Trieste, the Public Tourist Organisation of Trieste and itsCoastal Region, and the Savings Bank of Trieste, all of which cortributed generously towards the high organisationalexPenses, thus making Possible the participation of a wide range of technical experts from all over the world.P. BandaChairman ofICCAS 85, IP.C.

N /^\l Iu o /

I

C. KuoChairman of the

IFIP Working Group for Marine Industry

c. Di FilippoChairman of the

Local Organising Committee

vll

COMMITTEES

INTERNATIONAL ORGANISING COMMITTEE

V. Fanfani, Chairman (Italy)

J.A. Belda (Spain)E. Bocchini (Italy)

J. Chirila (Germany)Y. Fujita (Japan)

A. Jacobsson (Sweden)J. Nachtsheim (U.S.A.)H. Johansen (Nonvay)

S. Marsich (Italy)G. Massac (France)

M. Meek (U.K.)M.C. Ramacciotti (ltaly)

J. Vlietstra (The Netherlands)

INTERNAT IONAL PROG RAMME C OMMITTEE

P. Banda, Chairman (Italy)

J.F. Baillot (France)J.W. Brasher (U.S.A.)

B.T. Cheok (Singapore)W.A. Clark (Canada)

L. Garcfa (Spain)Y. Hattori (Japan)

J.M. Hee (Denmark)R. Hestenes (Nonvay)

Y. Horiba (Japan)N. Kaube (Germany)

J. King (U.K.)A. Koops (The Netherlands)

C. Kuo (U.K.)K.W. Kim (Korea)

K.J. MacCallum (U.K.)K.M. Mole (U.S.A.)R.C. Moore (U.S.A.)

B.C. Nehrling (U.S.A.)H. Nowacki (Germany)

A. Pittaluga (Italy)D.F. Rogers (U.S.A.)

c. Sani (Italy)S.Q. Wan (China)

F. Spincic (Yugoslavia)L.B. Vieira (Brazil)Z.D. Wang (China)

E. Wiklund (Fintand)A. Williams (U.K.)

LOCAL ORGANISING COMMITTEE

G. Di Filippo, Chairman (Fincantieri)

A. Cardo (University of Trieste)G. Cominardi (Fincantieri)

S. Crevatin (Fincantieri)R. Diluca (Fincantieri)

F. Flamingo (Fincantieri)M. Maestro (University of Trieste)

A. Minniti (Fincantieri)B. Tamaro (Fincantieri)

I. Zotti(University of Trieste)

1X

CONTENTS

Foreword

Committees

Summing-UpC. Kuo

The challenge of change in shipbuilding Today: Keynote SpeechJ. Parker

Panel Discussion: Changes in Computer TechnologyR.C. Moore (Moderator)

xxll

Panel Dscusion: Arc Robotic Devices Necessary?C.Kuo (Moderator) xxvPanel Discussion: Influence of Computers on Shipyard OrganizationG. Saru(Modemtor) xxvjiExpert Systems TutorialK.J. MacCallum xxix

v

vii

COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN

Structural Producib ility Considerations on a MicrocomputerR.A. Shenoi and A. Emmerson

/ A General Method for Computer Aided Optimum Structural Design of Ocean StructuresO. Hughes

The orthogonal Method for Ship Form and Performance EvaluationShanqin Wu, Yongming Qiu, and Zhehang Chen

HSDP - A Hull Structure Data Processing SystemXing Li-Fan and Xu Gang

Integrated Computer-Aided Design of Fast Patrol BoatsO. Jons, R. Sheldon, and T. Sauer

, The Benefit of Color Graphics in CAD

' E. Deetman, P.G.A. Nieuwendiik, J.G.F.M. Holtackers, and A. versluis

COMPUTER AIDED MANI.JF ACTURING

A Contribution to Computer Simulation Methods - Application in Ship Production ProcessAS. Karpowicz and V. Simone

Intensive Applications of Microprocessors/Microcomputers to Measuring and Recording Tasks in ShipbuildingR. Sasano, M. Fukuchi, H. Kuroda, and K. Takahashi

The Use of the SCHIFFKO CAD-System at BoehverfR. Verhasselt

x11l

43

t3

27

35

57

69

8 1

. '

87

Contents

ACCT.JRACY CONTROL

-{ Facilitating Accuracy Control in ShipbuildingR.L. Storch

ROBOTIC APPLICATIONS

o' Mechan2ation and Automation Developments in ShipbuildingI. Ohno and K. Nishiura

C IM ( C omput er- Int egrat ed M anufactu ring) in Shipbu ildingY. Fujita, Y. Sunagawa, T. Mizutani, and y. Morita

I Towards Integrated Computing in ShipyardsZ- L. Garcia and F. Alonso

lntegrated Steel Structure Production Information System for ShipbuildingS. Gitz

An Approach of Integrated DBMS for CAD/CAM and MISDaozhong Xia

99

r29

139

Computer Ailed Manufacturing for Arc Welding Robots in ShipbuildingD. Mars and H. Gallard U9

\/ Applicatbn Experienc of Robotic Welding in ShipbuildingI A.J. Marsh, C. Kuo, S.E. Duffy, and J.M. Kalogerakis 153

SHIP OPEMTION

CANSY, A Computer System for Safe and Economical Sailing and ManagementM. Fukuda, M. Sudolr, R. Fujimoto, O. Yanumoto, M. Inoue, and y. tlinkawa 167 |Computer Aided on Board Container Mamgemento.P. Sha n7

7, Computer-Aid for Floating Dock OperationS.A. Matosin lE9

Computer Control System for Heavy Uft Monitoring and hedictionA.K. Kippo and J..P. Riihelii Dg i

Computer Aids for Risk Analysis of Ship OperationU. Rabien 2@ :

H(PERT SYSTEMS

v/' Approimate Calculations in Preliminary Design,/ K.J. MacCallum and A. Duffy Zg

Marine Des8n Theory and the Application of Expert Systems in Marine DesignB.A. Bremdal ZZ7

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

fr A" Engineering/Manufacturing Enterprise Integrated Information Control System'" J.S. Malloni and S.E.I. Nusinow 239

247

2s7

265

Content!

APPLICATION OF ADVANCES IN COMPUTTNG

,,/' Modem Hull Structure Design System "COSMOS"Y. Okumoto, Y. Takeda, andK. Iliyoku 275

The Integration of CAD/CAM Systems at Wiirtsilii ShipyardsJ. Ikonen 285

New Integrated Engineering Systems for Hull Structure and pipingH. Kawaguch! R. Matsuda, H. Kakuno, anil M. Shigematsu 293

Use of Computer Graphics for Marine EngineeringE.A. Williams and P.D. Forrest 303

GBIERAL ARRANGHT'ENTS

J/ Fuzzy Set Theory and General Arrangement DesignB.C. Nehrling 319

/. Method for Optimization Engine Room Machinery layout Arrangement' K. Dutlid and M. Senjanovi6 329

7 Interactive Design of Ship CompartmentationU. Schumann-Hindenberg 343

, Desin of Complicated Medunical Equipment Areas v,rith CAD Techniques

/ A.Elo 353

HI,'LL FORM GENERATION

A BSpline Surface System for Ship Hull DesignN. Gjers{e Fog 359Applicatiom of an Advanccd Hull Surface Delinition System in Ship DesignD. Catley, C. Whittle, and P. Thornton 367

. *. The Use of B6zier Surface in the Design of a Ship Hull Surface

Zhou Chaojun and Liu Dingyuan 37gThe Numerical Treatment of General Cones in the Design of Developable Ship HullsP. Skafte Hansen 387

/ Fairing of Ship Lines and Ship SurfacesD. Reese 395

/ RatOnul Cubi" Splines for Ship Hull RepresentationJ.-S. Kouh ard H. Siiding 4O1

SIJRFIT - Interactive Program for Defining Free FormsB. Rosovii 413

./ ComPuter Aided Geometrical Design of Hull Lines and Lifting Surfaces of High Speed Marine VehiclesP.A. Bogdanov and S.L Kovachev 4Zl

rIYI)RODYNAMICSA hocedure for the Prediction of Ship Manoeuvring Response for Initial DesignN.E. Mikelis 437

XU Contents

Evaluation of Seakeeping Performance in Ship Design Based on the Mission Effectiveness ConceptR. Hosoda and Y. Kunitake

LATE PAPERS*

Hull Form Definition and Computer Aided DesignlA. Koops

A Proposal of Computer Aided Inspection in Shipbuilding Based on Laser Dimensional Control System2A.M. Wozniak

computer Applications to Accuracy control in Hull construction2M. Ijichi, S. Kohtake, and H. Kashima

Practical Application of Single curved Hull Definition Background, Application, Software and Experience3O. Ndrskov-Iauritsen

Advanced use of Blzier Surfaces for computer Aided Hull Definition3M. Pommellet

Preliminary ship Design by utilization of Experimental Data Banks4L. Grossi, C. Camporese, and De Stefano

List of Participants

Author Index

477

4s9

467

47s

485

493

503

5 1 5

521

*These papers arrived too late to be included under their appropriate session head.ings. Their correct position is given bythe supsrscript numbering at the end of their titles: l) comp;te; Aided Design;2) Accuracy Control; i) iull Form Gene-ration; 4) Hydrodynamics.

xlll

SI]MMING-UP

Dr Banda, Ladies and Gent lemen

When the part ic ipants in ICCAS 85 return home af ter th is p leasant week in Tr ieste i t wi I I bevery easy to te l l our f r iends what a splendid conference i t has been. We shal l have no di f -f l cu l t y l n desc r ib ing the exce l l en t o rgan isa t ion , the memorab le "Son e t LumlBre " even ing a tM l ramare cas t le , Lhe bu f fe t a t t he Bo t tega de l V lno (san G ius to cas t le ) , t he qua l l t y o f t hebanque t , t he soc ia l p rog ranme - and o f cou rse the g lo r ious sunsh ine .What about the conference i tsel f? What message wi l l you give about i ts achlevements? Thatl s a more d i f f i cu l t ques t ion to answer as the re i s so much one cou ld say . Fo r myse l f , t heh igh l i gh ts can be cons ide red under fou r head ings .

The Role of ICCAS 85

To apprec ia te the ro le o f rCcAS 85 l t i s lmpor tan t to p lace i t i n con tex t i n re la t l on top rev ious rccAs con fe rences . The L973 con fe rence ln t roduced the sh ipbu i l d ing indus t ry to thepotent ia l of the computer and provided many exarnples of how i t was belng used for a var iety ofsh ipbu i l d ing tasks . r ccAs 76 spec ia l i sed in compute r a lded des lgn and ihe conr r ibu t ion o f CADto shlp deslgn work. when rccAS 79 came to Glasgow i t was the turn of computer a lded manufac-tu r lng to rece ive a t ten t ion , and a t tha t t lme cAD/cAM was o f fe r tng so lu t i ons to a number o fp rac t l ca l p rob lems . compute r sys tems and exper ience o f the i r use cons t l t u ted the ma in theme o fICCAS 82 ' t oge the r w i th the bene f i t s o f compute r g raph ics fo r sh lp des igners .

ICCAS 85 has been an extremely important conference because we are at a crossroads in re lat ionto computer appl lcat ions in shipbui ld ing. on the one hand the exist ing computer programs and'systems have not real ly provided whaE they promised in the ear ly y. . r " whi le on the other weare be ing o f fe red advanced deve lopments where techn iques such as a r t i f i c l a l i n te l l i gence andexper t sys tems a re sa ld to be ab le to p rov ide "answers to a l l ou r p rob lems" . However , l n o rde rto avo id m is takes l i ke those o f the pas t we need c lea r -cu t , p ro fe i s lona l gu ldance . r be l i evetha t rCCAS 85 has been a fo rum ln wh ich to cons ide r th i s con f l l c t on a sound bas ls .

Advanced Technl

The conference has given us ample opportunl ty to examine developments ln var ious areas oftechno logy and thus acqu i re a more rea l l s t i c unders tand ing o f the i ; po ten t la l and the i r l lm l -ta t i ons . r re fe r i n pa rE icu la r to Compute r rn teg ra ted Manu fac tu r lng i cn ' , r ) , t he use o f robo t l cdev ices in sh ipbu i l d ing and the economic j us t i f i ca t l on o f compute r sys tems fo r des ign , p ro -duct lon and management. There have been around three hundred part ic ipants in the conferenceand the presence of so many experts has made possib le a h igh level of exchange of vLew. Theexchanges were f rank and f r iendly but a l l new d.evelopments were careful ly studied and c loselyques t i oned .

New In i t iat ives

rccAs 85 has in t roduced two f resh fea tu res to r ccAs con fe rences . The f l r s t i s thag a s lgn i -f i can t pa r t o f t he p rog ranme was devo ted to app l l ca t i ons o f the compute r Eo sh ip opera t ions .The ai rn of the rnternaEional Programme commit tee here was to encourage c loser l inks between theusers and the des igners o f sh ips . r t i s too ea r l y to eva lua te how we l l t h l s ob jec t i ve has beenachieved but a beginning has been made in an area that of fers much for the future.

The second new fea tu re was Ehe spec ia l t u to r ia l sess ion he ld th i s morn ing on Exper t sys tems .we have a l l hea rd abou t the vas t po ten t la l f o r i nc reased e f f i c iency , sav ings in cos t , and so ono f f e r e d b y r e c e n t a d v a n c e s i n " e x p e r t s y s t e m s ' r a n d " a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e , , . I f , h o r " r u . , , "are to benef i t f rom these advances and not to repeat the rn istakes of the ear ly sevent les, wehave urgent need of a real is t ic appreciat lon of what, an "expert systemrr is and what i t can dofo r us . r am g ra te fu l t o my f r i end and co l l eague , Dr Ken Maccar rum, fo r h i s tu to r la l and rfee l su re a l l o f us have bene f i t t ed f ro rn l t . r hope tha t l t means tha t those who a t tended a renow safe f rom the danger of ever having to echo the words of th is mornlngrs sesslon chairman :" I am the mos t fnon-exper t r eve r Eo cha i r an sess ion on exper t sys tems , , !

The ICCAS People

The pa r t l c ipan ts l n r ccAS con fe rence a re i n many ways ve ry spec la l peop le . r t i s ha rd to des -c r ibe the l r " spec ia l " qua l i t y p rec l se l y bu t I sha l l use two fac to rs to i l l us t raEe th i s po ln t .

xiv C. Kuo

F i rs t o f a l l , I have found a t th i s con fe rence and i t s th ree p redecessors tha t on ly abou t ha l fthe part ic ipants have at tended a previous ICCAS conference: the others are newcomers to thecirc le. This means that at each conference new fr iendships are made whi le at the same t imees tab l i shed re la t i onshps a re be ing ma ln ta ined .

The second fac to r i s tha t even in the wors t pe r iod o f recess ion fac ing the mar lne indus t ry wef ind peop le f rom every sec to r o f t he indus t ry coming to take pa r t , seek ing ways o f pu t t i ngadvanced technlques into pract ice and exchanging their exper ience unreservedly. \^ le are al lcompet i to rs bu t we a re a l so f r i ends .

Before I f in ish I should l lke to express thanks to a number of people.

F i r s t , on beha l f o f a l l t he pa r t l c ipan ts , and pa r t i cu la r l y thoseI ta l y I shou ld l l ke to thank ou r hos ts i n T r ies te fo r the i r warmICCAS 85 a techn ica l l y reward ing and soc ia l l y en joyab le con fe rence .

r should l ike to acknowledge our grat i tude to everyone, but mynecessary s tandard . so r wou ld say to ou r r ta l l an f r i ends , " r fmen t ioned i t i s no t because we have fo rgo t ten your bu t becauseI ta l i an ! t t

who have come from outs ldehosp i ta l i t y and fo r mak ing

I ta l i an i s no t up to theyou do not hear your name

you cannot understand my

F i rs t o f a l l , ou r thanks a re due to the C i t y o f T r ies te and the Lo rd Mayor o f T r ies te , D rR iche t t i . The luncheon a t you r cas t le was so good tha t we a lmos t dec ided to t rans fe r theaf ternoon technical programme to that venue! On behal f of the northern European part lc ipantsI should l ike to ask how you managed to arranged such good weaLher. We have had more sunnydays in Tr ieste dur ing th is conference than we have had dur ing the whole sunmer in Scot land.Perhaps you can provide me wi th a computer l ink to someone above.

The In te rna t iona l Federa t ion fo r In fo rmat ion Process ing ( IF IP ) i s the body tha t i n i t i a ted theICCAS con fe rence and we a re ve ry g ra te fu l t o F incan t le r i f o r Ehe i r suppor t f o r ICCAS 85 . Wi th -out their generosi ty the conference would not have been what i t is and I should l ike to ask DrBanda to convey ou r thanks to the Pres iden t , Mr Bocch in i , and h l s co l l eagues a t F incan t ie r i .

As many of you wi l l know, ICCAS conferences are served by three commit tees. The Internat ionalOrgan is ing Commi t tee p rov ides d i rec t i on fo r the con fe rence and genera tes he lp i n the hos tcoun t ry . The task o f cha i r l ng th i s commi t tee fe l l on Mr Fan fan i , t he Pres iden t o f L loyd -T r ies t i no . We a re g ra te fu l t o h im fo r h i s ro le i n ICCAS 85 and fo r a r rang ing such an en joyab lerecep t ion on Monday even ing . I t was a wonder fu l way to s ta r t a con fe rence .

The Loca l Organ is ing Commi t tee i s respons ib le fo r imp lement ing po l i c ies and ac tua l l y runn ingthe technical and socia l programme of the conference. I '1r Di Fi l ippo and his col leagues are tobe congratulated for the rnarvel lous job they have done and whaE a great choice of out ingsyou have provided.

The key commiE tee i s , o f cou rse , the In te rna t iona l P rog ramme Commi t tee wh ich , amongs t o the rth ings , se lec ted the venue , p lanned the techn ica l p rog ramme, de te rm lned the soc ia l p rog rammeand a t t rac ted pa r t i c ipan ts . The cha l l enge fac ing th i s pa r t i cu la r commi t tee be fo re each ICCAScon fe rence l s to ma in ta in the h igh s tandard se t by i t s p redecessors . ICCAS 82 was ex t reme lywe l l o rgan ised bu t I am su re thaL even i t s o rgan ise rs , Dave Rogers and Bruce Ner l i ng , w i l lagree that the Ehe Chalrman of ICCAS 85 has not only maintained that standard but carr ied i t tonew heights. I t is an lndicat ion of the achievement of Dr Banda and his col leagues that thecon fe rence has a t t rac ted th ree hundred de legaEes f rom a l l pa r t s o f t he wor ld . We a repar t i cu la r l y apprec ia t i ve o f the work o f D r Banda and o f h i s warm f r i endsh ip .

Fo r many pa r t l c ipan ts th i s has been a f i r s t v i s i t t o T r ies te . To the ave rage fo re igner I t a l ymeans "Rome Ven ice , F lo rence , P lsa . . . t t and one o r two o the r p laces and few o f them wou ld knowwhere to f i nd T r ies te on the map . ICCAS 85 has changed a l l t ha t fo r ou r pa r t i c ipan ts , and alarge number of new ambassadors wi l l put Tr ieste f i r rn ly on the wor ld map.

Thank you a l l f o r suppor t i ng ICCAS 85 , and may I w ish you a sa fe j ou rney home.

Chengi Kuo Fr iday 20 th Sep te rnber 1985

THE CHALLENGE OF CHANGE

KEYNOTE

J o h n P a n k e r

T h e c o n t i n u i n g d e p r e s s e d s t a t e o f t h e w o r l d s h i p -b u i l d i n g m a r k e t h a s b r o u g h t u n p r e c e d e n t e d d i f f i -c u l t y t o s h i p y a r d s w h i c h c o u l d n o t h a v e b e e ne n v ' i s a g e d t e n o r s o y e a r s a g o .

I t i s r i g h t t h a t w e s h o u l d r e m i n d o u r s e l v e s o ft h e d e p t h a n d p e r s ' i s t e n c e o f t h e c r i s i s t h a t h a saccompan ied those o f us who have persevered inweather ing the s to rm s ince the onset o f thec r i s ' i s i n 1 9 7 4 .

D e c l ' i n ' i n g o r d e r l e v e l s a n d s h ' i p p r i c e s h a v ebrought to the marke t an in tens ive contes t fo rt h e f e w n e w o r d e r s a v a i l a b l e - a n d I w i l l r e t u r nt o t h i s a g a i n - b u t l i k e a l l i n d u s t r i a l b a t t l e s ,i t ' i s techno l ogy wh ' i ch has to be advanced rap i d -1y to enab le ne t^ / and more e f f i c ien t p roduc ts tob e b r o u g h t t o t h e m a r k e t w ' i t h ' i n c r e a s e d e f f i c i e n c yi n t h e p r o d u c e r ' s f a c t o r i e s - i n t h i s c a s e t h esh i pyards .

Advanced des ign and produc t ion techno logy are thek e y i n g r e d i e n t s I b e l i e v e i n a s u r v i v a l s t r a t e g y .

I t i s a g a i n s t t h i s b a c k g r o u n d t h a t w e m u s t a d d r e s so u r t h o u g h t s b e c a u s e y o u t h e ' y o u n g ' , d a r e I s a yS o , t e c h n o l o g i s t s a r e t h e f r o n t l i n e t r o o p s j nt h e b a t t l e f o r t h e v e r y e x i s t e n c e o f a s h i p b u i l d -' i n g i n d u s t r y i n a n u m b e r o f t h e c o u n t r i e s t h a tyou represent .

For my par t , I want to o f fe r some thoughts as tot h e p r e s e n t a n d f u t u r e w o r l d m a r k e t s i t u a t i o nand some ' i ssues tha t s tem f rom th is fo r us Euro-peans and fo r the o ther ma jor p roducers , par t i cu-1 a r 1 y i n t h e F a r E a s t . I w i l l t h e n c l o s e w ' i t h abr ie f cons idera t ion o f some o f the changes wea r e i n t r o d u c i n g ' i n m y n a t i v e y a r d ' i n B e l f a s t , t ow h i c h I r e t u r n e d s o m e 2 y e a r s a g o , a s o n e y a r d ' s' in te rpre ta t ion o f the changes and new techno logyr e q u i r e d t o m e e t t h e m a r k e t c h a l l e n g e .

WORLD MARKET SITUATION

I b e l i e v e i t ' i s v e r y i m p o r t a n t f o r t e c h n o l o g i s t sto unders tand the marke tp lace - fo r examp' le :- What has been happen ' ing s t ruc tu ra l ' l y to the

i n d u s t r y o v e r t h e p a s t 1 0 y e a r s ?- Where ' i s i t I i ke ly to go ' in the shor t and med ium

term?

- W h a t a r e t h e m o s t I i k e ' l y i n g r e d i e n t s f o r s u r -v i v a l a n d s u c c e s s ?

In 91oba1 te rms the near fu tu re o f fe rs a b leakp i c t u r e f o r m e r c h a n t s h ' i p b u i l d i n g . I n m y v i e wboth 1985 and 1986 w i l l be very low demand years- e v e n l o w e r t h a n w e h a v e s e e n h ' i s t o r i c a l ' l y .Cer ta ' in1y our own in te rna l fo recas ts and those o fA W E S s u g g e s t t h a t 1 9 8 5 / 8 6 w i l l p r o b a b l y b e l o w e rthan we have seen before and may be even down as

f ig . 1 . Wor l d Newbu ' i1 d i ng Deve l opment : p ro jec-t i o n s t o 1 9 9 5 .

S o w e a r e g o i n g t o s e e f u r t h e r d e c l i n e 9 1 o b a 1 1 yover the nex t two years .

From 1986 to the end o f the decade, I be l ievew e w ' i l l s e e a g r a d u a l l i f t i n t h e d e m a n d f o r m e r -c h a n t s h i p s a s t h e r e p l a c e m e n t f a c t o r b e g i n s t obecome more dom' inant . I be l ieve too tha t one can-n o t b e w i s e l y o p t i m i s t i c a b o u t t h e r a t e o f t h a tu p l i f t u n t i l w e s e e a l o t m o r e o f t h e l a i d u p t o n .a g e b e ' i n g d e a l t w i t h . W e s t i l l h a v e g / 9 % o f t h ew o r l d ' s m e r c h a n t f l e e t l a i d u p , a n d t h a t i s at remendous psycho log ica l overhang in the marke t -p l a c e . E v e n i f t h o s e s h i p s , t h a t a r e s i t t . i n g i nl a y _ u p a r e n o t t e c h n i c a l l y f i t t o s a i l , i t i ss t i l l p s y c h o l o g i c a ' l l y d a m a g i n g i n t h a t i td e p r e s s e s s h i p o w n e r s , d e p r e s s e s f r e i g h t r a t e s ,depresses the pr ice o f second-hand tonnage,and in tu rn depresses the pr - i ce on new b ; . i id -l n g s .

My own v iew there fore ' i s tha t we w i l l on ly be onan upward l i f t in demand a f te r the nex t twolean years ' in the merchanfT iTp marke t . I t w i l ls t a r t v e r y c a u t i o u s l y a n d t h e n g r a d u a l l y g a i nm o m e n t u m a s s c r a p p i n g , h o p e f u l l y , r u n s a t h i g h e rl e v e l s t h a n a t p r e s e n t a n d i f r e a s o n a b l e l e v ; l so f e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l c o u n t r i e sc o n t i n u e s .

I f as I p red ' i c t tha t over the nex t 2 years thedemand cont inues to d rop then c lear ly the down-ward ad jus tment o f capac ' i t y in the Far Eas t and' in Europe w ' i ' l t have to cont i nue.

I N S H I P B U I L D I N G T O D A Y

S PE ECH

. low as an annua l o rder i nqw ' i th wor ld w ide ou tpu t o im i l l i o n .

o f 1 0 m i l l i o n C G R Ta p p r o x i m a t e l y 1 4

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xvi J. Parker

L e t u s n o w l o o k a t s o m e o f t h e m a j o r s h i p b u i l d ' i n ga r e a s o f t h e w o r l d a n d t r y t o a s s e s s t h e p o s s i b l ei m p a c t o f t h e s e p r e d i c t i o n s o n s t r u c t u r e s , e t c .

EUROPE AND THE EEC

I w i l I t a k e E u r o p e f i r s t s i n c e ' i t i s c l o s e r t ohome and there fore I shou ld know ' i t bes t .

T h e w o r l d ' s s h ' i p p i n g c r i s i s h a s t a k e n a m a s s ' i v et o l I o n t h e E E C s h i p b u ' i l d i n g i n d u s t r y . B e t w e e n1 9 7 6 a n d 1 9 8 3 o u t p u t d r o p p e d f r o m 7 . 7 M G R T t o 2 , 9GRT. The wor ld share o f new orders has droppedf rom 17.2% to 10 .9% and the capac i ty ' in CGRT hasbeen reduced by 48%. Fur ther res t ruc tu r ing s ince1 9 8 3 h a s ' i n c r e a s e d t h e a b o v e s t a t ' i s t i c s o fd e c l ' i n e .

B e h i n d t h e s e g r i m s t a t " i s t i c s a r e t h e e q u a l l ygr im reduc t ions in empl oyment . Fur ther po ten t ' ia1r e s t r u c t u r i n g i s n o w p r o v ' i n g e v e n m o r e d i f f i c u l ts ' ince many EEC sh i pyards and the i r supp l i e rsa r e l o c a t e d i n a r e a s o f v e r y h i g h l o c a l u n e m p l o y -m e n t .

T h e l o s s o f d i r e c t s h i p y a r d j o b s b e t w e e n 1 9 7 6 a n d1 9 8 3 i s n o w i n e x c e s s o f 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 . T h e u n e m p l o y -ment consequences fo r the EEC mar ine equ ' ipments u p p l y i n d u s t r y m a y a l s o h a v e b e e n a s h ' i g h o reven more severe than the job losses f rom thesh i pyards themse l ves .

Employment p ressures c rea te po f i t i ca l i ssues fo reach communi ty government . I t cannot be over -l o o k e d t h a t t h e h e a v y s o c i a l p r i c e t h a t i s b e i n gpa ' id by the communi ty sh ' ipyards has resu l ted no to n l y f r o m t h e s h i p p i n g c r i s i s i t s e l f , b u t a l s of rom the expans ion is t po i i c ' ies o f par ts o f theAs ian sh i pbu i 1 d i ng i ndus t ry . The ' inc rease o f theAs ' ian marke t share has o f ten been ach ieved v iap r e d a t o r y p r i c i n g p o l j c i e s w h i c h h a v e l e d t os e v e r e f i n a n c i a l l o s s e s ' i n t h e i r o w n s h i p y a r d s .S u c h s h i p p r i c e s t o o o f t e n r e p r e s e n t l e s s t h a nE u r o p e a n c o s t s o f m a t e r i a l s a n d t o t a l l y d ' i s t o r tt h e m a r k e t f o r s h i p b u i l d e r s a n d s h i p o w n e r s a l i k e .A s a r e s u l t , t h e w o r l d m a r k e t c o m m e r c i a l s t r u c -tu re ' i s now in to ta l d ' i sar ray . As a resu l t o fsuch I ow pr ic ing the va l ua t ' ion o f owners 'f leets have suffered far too many downwardr e v ' i s j o n s o r d e v a l u a t i o n s b e c a u s e o f s u c h a g g r e s -s i v e p r i c i n g t o b u y a n e x p a n d e d s h a r e w h i c hi n f l i c t s b a l a n c e s h e e t d a m a g e o n t h e c u s t o m e r .S u c h p o l i c i e s a l s o n o w t h r e a t e n t h e v e r y e x i s -tence o f many o f the rema ' in ing European and' i ndeed Far Eas t sh i pbu i 1 ders and the i r supp l i e rs .

F o r e c o n o m i c , s o c i a l a n d s t r a t e g i c r e a s o n s ,th roughout the EEC, there appears to be a g row-ing reluctance among a number of member statest o l e t t h e i r i n d ' i g e n o u s s h i p b u i l d i n g c a p a c i t yf a l l b e l o w w h a t m i g h t b e r e g a r d e d a s a ' C r i t i -c a l M a s s ' . T h e ' C r i t i c a l M a s s ' s i z e f o r m a n yn a t i o n a l s h i p b u ' i ' l d i n g i n d u s t r i e s h a s p r o b a b l ynow been reached.

I n c r i t i c a l m a s s t e r m s s h i p b u ' i 1 d ' i n g ' i s a n a m a l -g a m o f a d m j n i s t r a t i v e , t e c h n i c a l , i n d u s t r i a ' l ,f inanc ia l sk ' i l I s and fac i I i ta tes fo rm' ing a we l Ii n t e g r a t e d h u m a n a n d ' i n d u s t r i a l i n f r a - s t r u c t u r e .I n d i v i d u a l s h i p y a r d s a n d t h e ' i r s u p p ' l ' i e r s h a v e am i n ' i m u m t h r e s h o l d l e v e l b e l o w w h i c h t h e y c a n n o t ,fo r bo th techn ica l and economic reasons , ma in-t a i n t h e i r o p e r a t ' i o n a l i n f r a - s t r u c t u r e . F o rexampl e , a sh' i pyard wi 1 1 cea se to ex i st when

t h e m a j o r i t y o f i t s n a v a l a r c h i t e c t s , m a r i n ee n g i n e e r s o r o t h e r k e y s k i 1 1 g r o u p s h a v e t o b ed ' i s m i s s e d b e c a u s e o f l a c k o f w o r k . A n e q u i p -m e n t s u p p l i e r m r r s t a 1 s o , f o r e x a m p l e , a m o n go t h e r t h i n g s , c o v e r t h e e x p e n s e s o f a n a f t e r -s a l e s s e r v i c e v v o r l d w i d e . I n t u r n t h e m a r i n es u p p l y i n d u s t r y w i t h i n a c o u n t r y c a n o n l ys u r v i v e w h i l s t t h e r e r e m a i n s a m ' i n i m u m o r' C r i t i c a l M a s s ' i n d ' i g e n o u s s h ' i p b u i l d i n g c a p a -c i t y . T h e h e a l t h o f b o t h s e c t o r s i s c u r r e n t l yu n d e r c o n s i d e r a b l e e c o n o m i c a n d d i s t o r t e dm a r k e t p r e s s u r e s . T o b e i n a c o m p e t i t ' i v e p o s i -t ion when new sh ip demand re tu rns to more nor -m a l l e v e l s , b o t h i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s n e e d t o b es u s t a i n e d a n d n u t u r e d a t o r a b o v e ' C r i t i c a lM a s s ' I e v e l s .

The commun ' i t y ' i t se l f accounts f o r 30% o f wor ld' impor ts and 10% of wor ld expor ts . I t s t radew' i th th ' i rd wor ld count r ies represents 20% ofw o r l d t r a d e , c o m p a r e d w i t h J a p a n ' s B % a n d t h eUn ' i ted Sta tes and Canada jo ' in t1y w i th 15%. Some85/90% of community t rade with non-memberss t a t e s ' i s c a r r i e d b y s e a a n d a p p r o x ' i m a t e l yha l f o f tha t ' i s car r ied by sh ips owned bycommun ' i t y sh ' ipowners . A ne t con t r i bu t i on f romcommuni ty f lag sh ips to the ba lance o f payments' in the communi ty amounts to a mass ' i ve surp l uso f 9 b i l l i o n d o l l a r s i n 1 9 8 1 . T o n n a g e o f m e m b e rs t a t e ( s ) f l a g s i n D e c e m b e r 1 9 8 3 w a s a l m o s t o n eq u a r t e r o f t h e w o r l d f l e e t a n d i t i s b e l ' i e v e dt h a t a f u r t h e r 1 0 - 1 1 % w e r e o p e r a t e d b y c o m m u n i t ys h i p o w n e r s u n d e r f l a g s o f c o n v e n ' i e n c e . S h i p -p ' ing there fore w i th in the communi ty i s no to n l y a b ' i g a n d i m p o r t a n t b u s i n e s s , b u t i t i sa l s o o f s i g n i f i c a n t s t r a t e g i c i m p o r t a n c e . R e -g r e t t a b l y , h o w e v e r , a d e c l i n e o f 2 4 % 1 n t h es ize o f the communi ty share o f the wor ld f lee th a s t a k e n p l a c e o v e r t h e p a s t 7 y e a r s a n d t h i sdrop is modest compared to the mass ive cont rac-t i o n o f a l m o s t 5 0 % o f t h e s ' i z e o f t h e U K s h i p -p i n g f l e e t o v e r t h e s a m e p e r i o d

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F i g . 2 . E E C F l e e t a s % o f W o r l d F l e e t .

There are dangerous t rends ' in the v i ta l ands t ra teg ' i c a rea o f t ranspor ta t jon . In exam. in . ingt h e n e w s h i p s u p p l y s i d e , t h e l e v e l o f t o d a y ' scommun i ty sh' i pbu i ' l d i ng capac i ty i s now onl ycapab le o f rep lac ing about 25% o f the commun-i t y ' s o w n s h i p r e q u j r e m e n t s n e e d e d f o r i t sown t rade.

L e t u s h o p e n o w t h a t a g a i n s t t h e b a c k g r o u n d o ft h e m a s s i v e a n d p a i n f u l r e s t r u c t u r i n g w h ' i c h h a s

The Challenge of Change in Shipbuilding Today XVII

t a k e n p l a c e , a n d t h e ' C r i t ' i c a l M a s s ' i s s u e t h a rn o v l f a c e s m o s t o f t h e c o m m u n i t y s h i p b u i l d i n ga n d m a r i n e e q u i p m e n t s u p p l y ' i n d u s t r i e s , t h a t t h eo p p o r t u n i t y t o d e v e l o p p o 1 i c ' i e s w h ' i c h w i l l l i n kthe fu tu re o f the EEC yards more c lose ly to theEEC sh i powners w i I I be tack l ed w i th ' in the com-m u n i t y .

Many communi ty sh ipowners cou ld in the nex t de-c a d e f a c e t h e s a n e d e g r e e o f d e c l i n e a s t h e s h i p -yards have in the pas t decade i f the ' i r fu tu re i sn o t f u l l y t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t ' i n d e v e l o p i n g a n' in tegra ted mar ine indus t r ia l po l i cy fo r thecommun' i ty .

JAPAN AND KOREA

T u r n i n g n o w t o t h e F a r E a s t :

Japan w i th about 50% o f wor ld marke t share andS o u t h K o r e a n o w w i t h a b o u t 1 8 % i n 1 9 8 4 f r o mabout 5% f ron 5 years ear l ie r a re undoubted lyt h e d o m i n a n t s h i p b u i ' l d i n g c o u n t r i e s o f t h ew o r l d .

F i g . 3 . l 4 a r k e t S h a r e s 1 9 7 4 - 1 9 8 4 .

A g a i n s t t h e b a c k g r o u n d o f t h e g l o b a i f o r e c a s t st h e n , w h i l s t t h e r e s t i l l n e e d s t o b e m o r e r e -t r e n c h m e n t i n E u r o p e , t h e r e m u s t s t ' i l l I b e l i e v ebe very much more retrenchment in the next 2y e a r s ' i n t h e F a r E a s t s h ' i p y a r d s b e c a u s e t h o s ew h o h a v e t a k e n a c o m b i n e d 6 5 - 7 0 % o f t h e w o r l d ' sorder book today - Japan and South Korea - mustaccept tha t th is marke t share has been ga ' inedover the pas t few years on the back o f somevery low pr ices indeed. Indeed, we are in fo rmedthat the major i t y o f South Korean yards are mak-i ng fa i 11y ' la rge I osses . I cannot there f o re seet h a t J a p a n a n d K o r e a w i l l c o n t i n u e t o ' b u y ' t h evo lume o f o rders to sa t is fy cur ren t capac i tya t s u c h 1 o w p r i c e s - i t w o u l d b e c o m m e r c i a ls u i c ' i d e f o r u s a l l .

My v iew ' i s , there fore , tha t Japan w i I I have tore t rench much fu r ther than cur ren t ly announcedp l a n s s u g g e s t a n d t h a t t h e K o r e a n e x p a n s ' i o n i s tp l a n s w i l l h a v e t o b e a b a n d o n e d a c c o m p a n i e d b yc u t b a c k s i n t h e n e x t c o u p l e o f y e a r s .

Th is message seems to be ge t t ing th rough - re -' in fo rced by marke t fac to rs tha t have seen thet h r u s t i n g K o r e a n y a r d s f a c e h u n g e r . N o w i 1 d 1 ysevere pangs ye t : back l og 1 i s ts a re s t ' i l In u m e r i c a l l y i m p r e s s i v e w i t h s o m e d e l i v e r i e s

schedu l ed we l ' l i n to 1986/87 bu t repor ted de f e r -ments ' in p roceed ' ing w i th new orders must be o fg rea f , c0ncern .

B u t n e w o r d e r s h a v e d r i e d u p d r a m a t i c a l l y . T h era te at wh' ich the fac ' i I ' i t ' ies of Daewoo , Hyunda. iand o ther Korean years have h j ther to been fedj u s t c a n n o t b e s u s t a i n e d . C h e a p p r i c e s a r e' i r re l evant when there s ' imp1y are so few con-t r a c t s t o b i d f o r .

Meanwhi le , the Korean yards are hav ing to ' l i vew i t h t h e l o w l e v e l o f p r i c e s b e i n g r e - e i v e d f o rwork a l ready on the order book . They are a lsoh a v i n g t o l i v e w i t h t h e f a c t t h a t p r o g r e s s i o nup-marke t in to more complex types o f sh . ipsand o f fshore s t ruc tu re - has been very rap id .

Management changes and s ideways moves a t someof the Korean yards s t rong ly suggest tha t , fo rt h e i m m e d i a t e f u t u r e , t h e e m p h a s i s i s n o t g o . i n gt o b e o n g e t t i n g o r d e r s a t a n y p r i c e . t t w i l lb e o n c o n s o l i d a t ' i o n , g e t t i n g y a r d s m a n a g e d m o r ee f f e c t i v e l y , a n d i n c r e a s ' i n g p r o d u c t i v i t y .

The ra te a t wh ich South Korea moves w i th in thenex t decade to reac t iva te expans ion p lans o f af e w y e a r s b a c k w i l l , I b e l i e v e , a l s o b e m u c h1 n f l u e n c e d b y t h e s u c c e s s o f C h i n a i n p e n e -t r a t i n g f u r t h e r i n t h e i r e x p o r t d r i v e .

T H E S U R V I V O R S

C 1 e a r 1 y , t h e r e f o r e , a n y m e r c h a n t y a r d i n E u r o p eor indeed ' in any o ther par t o f the wor ld tha ti s r e l y i n g f o r i t s o r d e r s o n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a lm a r k e t , i s g o i n g t o h a v e a r o u g h t i m e o v e r t h enex t 2 /3 years .

I d o n o t b e l i e v e o n e c a n h i d e t h a t f a c t f r o ml o o k i n g a t t h e 9 1 o b a 1 f o r e c a s t s - i t s b e t t e r t ok n o w j t n o w a n d g e a r o u r s e l v e s a c c o r d i n g l y t of a c e i t . H o w e v e r t h e r e a r e a l w a y s p a r t j i u i a rmarke t n ' i ches wh ich yards can be s teered to -wards and those w ' i th the ' inherent techn ica lf l e x i b i l i t y a n d s t r e n g t h t o t a c k l e a w i d e p r o -d u c t r a n g e w i l l b e i n a s t r o n g e r p o s i t i o n t osurv ' i ve bu t ' i t w i I I be marke t fo rces , coup l edw i t h g o v e r n m e n t p o i i c i e s , w h i c h w . i l I d i c t ' a t ewh ich yards go to the wa l I ' i n the nex t fewy e a r s b u t t h e s u r v i v o r s w i l l , I b e l i e v e ,e m e r g e l e a n e r a n d f i t t e r a n d w i t h a h i g h - t e c hb a s e .

Y a r d s a n d s u p p l i e r s t h a t w i l l s u r v i v e m u s t n o whowever be seek ing improved compet i t i venesst h r o u g h t h e a p p l i c a t i o n a n d d e v e l o p m e n t a n d a d -vanced techno l ogy ' in the des i gn and produc t . ionprocesses

, whether f o r so-ca l I ed I ow or h . iqh-!9.h sh i ps . The ' important requ . i rement , I b;-l i e v e , i s t o h a v g _ a h i g h t e c h n o l o g y d e s i g n a n dp r o d u c t i o n c a p a b i l i t y t h a t c a n b e - a p p l i e d t oa w ' i d e r a n g e o f s h i p t y p e s .

A s t h e i n d u s t r y b e c o m e s s m a l l e r , c o n s i d e r a b l es c o p e a l s o e x i s t s t o p r o m o t e j o i n t r e s e a r c h a n ddevel opment programmes on an r- nternat i onalS c a l e .

S c o p e a l s o e x i s t s t o s h a r e t h e d e v e l o p m e n te f fo r t and cos ts o f b r ing ing on s t ream more ad-vanced CAD/CAM sys tems. In our own yard weh a v e r e c e n t l y r e a c h e d s u c h c o - o p e r a t i v e u n d e r -s tand i ng w ' i th Wa r ts i I a i n F i n l and and Kockums i n

XVIlI

S w e d e n , w h i l s t c o n t ' i n u i n g o u r c o - o p e r a t i o n w j t hI H I i n J a p a n .

I be l ieve scope a l so ex i s ts , as i n the ' in te rna-t i o n a l a i r c r a f t b u s ' i n e s s , f o r m u l t ' i n a t ' i o n a lc o - o p e r a t i o n i n t h e b u ' i l d ' i n g o f c o m p l e x s h i p sand o f fshore s t ruc tu res . Modern commun ' ica t iontechnol ogy comb' ined w' i th ' interchange on CAD/CAMa n d c o m p u t e r b a s e d p l a n n i n g s y s t e m s d a t a w i l la l I a i d s u c h ' i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o - o p e r a t i o n .

INGREDIENTS FOR SURVIVAL - THE HARLAND ANDW O L F F E X P E R I E N C E

DIRECT IMPACT ON SHIP PRODUCTION COSTS

. A D V A N C E D s H I P B U I L D I N G M E T H O D S

. ADVANCED PRODUCTION TECHNIQUES

. ldoRK STATION ORGANISATION

F i g . 4 . D i r e c t I m p a c t o n S h i p P r o d u c t i o n C o s t s .

INDIRECT IMPACT ON SHIP PRODUCTION COSTS

. IMPROVED PLANNING AND CONTROL

. IMPROVED PROCEDURES & INFORMATION FLOI^J

. I M P R O V E D F A C I L I T I E S

. INCREASED APPLICATION OF CAD/CAM

. IMPROVED MATERIALS MANAGEMENT

. IMPROVED MANAGEI' IENT CAPABILITY

. IMPROVED TRAINING & COMMUNICATING

F ' i g . 5 . I n d i r e c t I m p a c t o n S h i p P r o d u c t ' i o n C o s t s .

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I t ' i s a g a i n s t t h i s b a c k g r o u n d t h a t w e a t H a r l a n dand l , lo l f f have se t ou t to become an advanced tech-n o l o g y s h ' i p y a r d . 0 u r c o r p o r a t e o b j e c t ' i v e ' i s t obe one o f the most p rogress ' i ve yards ' in Europe.To ach ieve tha t s ta tus we have and are inves t -i n g h e a v i l y i n t h e m o s t m o d e r n s h i p d e s i g n , p r o -duc t ion and cont ro l techn ' iques we can ident i f y .L i n k e d w i t h t h e s e t e c h n i q u e s h a s c o m e a n e wsty le o f management wh ich moves bo th respon-s i b ' i l ' i t y a n d a c c o u n t a b i l ' i t y f u r t h e r d o w n t h ecompany s t ruc tu re and in t roduces ' in fu l l aded ica ted Pro jec t Management Team approach ona l I ma jo r p ro jec ts . These changes are a ' imed no to n l y a t i m p r o v e d a n d m o r e e f f i c i e n t s h i p b u i l d -i n g a n d d e s i g n i n g , b u t a l s o a t a m o r e h ' i g h ' l yc o n t r o l ' l e d o r g a n i s a t i o n t o p r o v i d e u s w i t h agreater degree o f marke t f lex ib ' i f i t y wh ichw i l l a l l o w u s t o t a c k l e a w i d e r a n d m o r e s o -ph i s t ' i ca ted produc t base.

I t h a s b e e n s t r e s s e d t h a t w e a r e a n i n d i v i d u a lyard and the on ly remain ing one in the UK wh ' ichc a n c l a i m t o b e a f u l i y ' i n t e g r a t e d s h ' i p b u i l d -i ng , repa' i r i ng and eng' i neer i ng company .

Al though we are government owned, we are not asubs ' id i a ry company o f the na t i ona l i sed yards i nB r i t i s h s h i p b u i 1 d e r s . W e o p e r a t e q u i t e i n d e p e n -d e n t l y f r o m B S b u t e n d e a v o u r t o m i n i m i s e p r o d u c to v e r l a p a l t h o u g h o n o c c a s i o n s a d e g r e e o f c o m p e t i -t i v e n e s s m a y a r i s e .

f i h ' i l e o u r r e o r g a n j s a t i o n a n d d e v e l o p m e n t p l a n sf o r t h e s h i p y a r d a n d i t s e n g i n e e r i n g f a c i l i t i e shave been pu t in to mot ion , vve have had to sur -v i v e a n d a g a i n s t t h e p r e s e n t g l o o m y s h i p p ' i n gmarke t background we have won an order bookw h i c h t o d a y t o t a l s i n e x c e s s o f 1 2 0 0 m i l l i o n( U S $ 2 6 2 m i l l ' i o n ) w h i c h w ' i l l s e e s h i p s c o n t i n u -i n g t o b e d e l ' i v e r e d t h r o u g h t o 1 9 8 i . T h i s d e -gree o f re la t ' i ve marke t success has been bu ' i l ta round the merchant , nava l and o f fshore marke ts e c t o r s a n d t h u s c r e a t e s c o n s i d e r a b l e t e c h n i c a lc h a l I e n g e s . I t a l s o p r o v ' i d e s t h e c r u c j a l b a s e -l o a d t o t e s t o u r n e w s h i p b u i l d i n g t e c h n ' i q u e sand management systems now com' ing on stream.

The key techno logy and management o f change' ingred ien ts we have ident ' i f ied are shown inF i g s . 4 a n d 5 .

In adopt ing an advanced techno logy approach theo r g a n i s a t i o n o f t h e c o m p a n y h a s a l s o t o b eadapted to ' inc lude a s t ruc tu re more compat ib lew i t h t h e n e w t e c h n o l o g i e s a n d i n c r e a s e da c c o u n t a b i ' l i t y . T h u s , f o r e x a m p l e , t h e o l d S h i pProduc t ion ou t f i t and Stee l depar tments havebeen rep laced by a shop manufac tur ing organ isa-t i o n a n d a s h i p c o n s t r u c t i o n o r g a n ' i s a t i o n ,coup l ed w i th a zone management respons i b ' i1 i t y( s e e F i g . 6 ) .

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I n t h e t e c h n ' i c a l o f f i c e s t o o s i m i l a r z o n e g r o u p -i n g s h a v e b e e n ' i n t r o d u c e d i n p l a c e o f t h e t r a d i -t i o n a l s y s t e m b y s y s t e m r e s p o n s i b ' i l i t y ( s e eF i g . 7 ) .T h i s h a s e s t a b l i s h e d t e c h n i c a l a n d p r o d u c t i o ns t ruc tures compat ib le w i th each o ther and thei n f o rmat ' ion f I ow, new methods o f cons t ruc t ' iona n d t h e c o n t r o l a n d a c c o u n t a b i l i t y b e i n g s o u g h t .

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F i g . 7 .

F i g . B . P r o j e c t M a n a g e m e n t I n t e r f a c e w i t h0 f p a r t i c u l a r i m p o r t a n c e h a s b e e n t h e i n t r o d u c -t ion o f a ded ica ted Pro jec t Management Teama p p r o a c h o n e a c h m a i n c o n t r a c t ( s e e F i g . B ) .The pro jec t manager and h ' i s team have overa l lcon t rac tua l respons ' ib i l j t y fo r each ma ' in cont rac ta c r o s s a l I c o m p a n y f u n c t i o n s , f r o m t h e s i g n ' i n go f the cont rac t to vesse l de l i very . They arerespons ib le fo r the cus tomer in te r face and tot h e E x e c u t i v e B o a r d f o r b r i n g i n g e a c h c o n t r a c tw j t h i n t i m e s c a l e a n d b u d g e t . T h i s o r g a n ' i s a t i o n -a l a p p r o a c h i n a s t r o n g l y f u n c t i o n a l ' l yo r i e n t a t e d o r g a n i s a t i o n , s u c h a s a s h i p y a r d ,i n e v i t a b l y b r i n g s o n o c c a s i o n s a c o n f r o n t a t ' i o n -a l s ty le o f management . However , as a company,we are conv inced tha t th is fo rm o f p ro jec tm a n a g e m e n t ' i s a v i t a l i n g r e d i e n t i n i n c r e a s i n gcont ro l where a range o f complex pro jec ts a reb e i n g p r o d u c e d . I n t o d a y ' s m a r k e t i t i s p a r t o fthe management key to ' inc rease f lex jb i l i t y ' i n

F u n c t i o n a l S h i p b u i 1 d i n g 0 r g a n i s a t i o n .

the produc t base.

The s t ra teg ic p lann ing depar tment has been se t upto p rov ' ide resource and key da te p lann. ing acrossa l l c o m p a n y f u n c t i o n s . I t a l s o p r o v i d e s a b u i l ds t ra tegy fo r each vesse l and prov . ides pro jec tserv ices to each pro jec t management team, coup ledwi th computer based ne twork ana lys . i s . We haverecent ly adopted the IBM A S Sys tem.

These are key e lements to inc rease cos t con t ro la n d w o r k p l a n n i n g t h r o u g h o u t t h e l i f e c y c l e o fthe cont rac t inc lud ing the pro jec t per iod be forethe cont rac t ' i s s ' igned. The bu . i l d s t ra tegygoverns the approach made by a1 1 departments tot h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f e a c h s h i p a n d i s n o w a p p l . i e dt o a l l c o n t r a c t s .

I n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h e a c h p r o j e c t m a n a g e m e n t t e a m ,t h e S t r a t e g i c P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t h a s d e v e ' l o p e d

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a d e t a ' i l e d " F r o n t E n d P l a n n i n g a n d C o n t r o l "sys tem to b r ing together a l1 key depar tmentsa t c r i t ' i c a l s t a g e s d u r i n g a c o n t r a c t , i n c l u d i n gt h e i n i t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e B u i l d S t r a t e g ywh ' ich i nvo l ves a l I key sen i o r managers o fd e p a r t m e n t s a n d p r o d u c t i o n . O n c e t h e d e f i n ' i t i v eb u i l d s t r a t e g y i s d e t e r m ' i n e d a n d a g r e e d , n ofur ther change is perm' i t ted w i thout s ' igneda p p r o v a l a t d i r e c t o r l e v e l . T h i s g i v e s T e c h n ' i c a land P lann ing depar tments conf idence to p roceedwi th deta i I ed work drawi ngs and pa1 ' let I ' i s tsand thence to work ins t ruc t ' ions and de ta i ledp l a n n ' i n g s c h e d u l e s w o r k e d o u t b y t h e S h ' i p P r o -duc t ion Scheduf ing and Work Prepara t ion Depar t -ment .

As a Company we are comm'i t ted to the appl ' icat ' iono f the most advanced computer based techno logyw e c a n i d e n t i f y . I n p a r t ' i c u l a r , w e a r e n r a k i n gs ign i f i can t inves tments ' in CAD/CAM graphs andr e l a t e d c o m p u t i n g s y s t e m s . D i a g r a m m a t i c a l ' l y ,o u r c o m p u t ' i n g s y s t e m i s s h o w n i n F i g . 9 .The CAD/CAM systems are based on the Kockunrsdeve loped s teerbear sys tems and w ' i th i t s s t rongm a n u f a c t u r i n g b i a s , c o m p l e m e n t s o u r a d o p t i o n o fnew and advance i j p roduc t ' ion methods . The sys temcovers on the s t ruc tu ra l s ide f rom scant l ingdes ' ign th rough work ing drawings , mater ia l take-o f f and manufac tur ing ' in fo rmat ion fo r shopf l o o r i n c l u d i n g b u r n ' i n g m a c h i n e c o n t r o l i n f o r -mat ' ion , vve igh ts and Q C D imens ' iona l check in fo r -m a t i o n , e t c .

0 n t h e o u t f i t s i d e , p ' i p e w o r k d e s ' i g n a n d r o u t ' i n gp ' lus manufac tur ing ' in fo rmat ion to the computercont ro l 1 ed p ' ipe benders i n the new p i pe shopcreates a t ru ly CAD/CAM env i ronment . The Medusas y s t e m t o i n c r e a s e a p p l i c a t i o n o f g r a p h i c s y s -tems to genera l d raught ing (genera l a r range-ment , mach' inery

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t i o n s a t a l I I e v e l s . C A D / C A M i s a l s o e n a b l i n qt h e i n c r e a s e d a p p f i c a t i o n o f m o d u l e a n d p i p eb a n k d e s i g n s a n d e x t e n d e d o u t f i t t i n g t e c h n i q u e sa t u n i t a n d b l o c k s t a g e , c o u p l e d w i t h u n d e rc o v e r c o a t i n g ' i n o u r g i a n t p a i n t h a l I s , p r . i o rt o d e l i v e r y f r o m t h e s h o p o r g a n ' i s a t i o n t o t h esh i p cons t ruc t i on organ ' i sa t ' ion a t the dock . Thust h e s h o p o r g a n i s a t i o n i s r e g a r d e d a s a s u p p l i e ro f o u t f i t t e d a n d p a i n t e d b l o c k s i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t hthe bu i I d s t ra tegy to the sh i p cons t ruc t . iono r g a n i s a t i o n a t t h e d o c k . T o a c h i e v e t h i s i n t h em o s t e c o n o m i c a l w a y r e q u ' i r e s d e t a i l e d s h o p s c h e d -u 1 i n g , c o u p l e d w i t h d e t a i l e d w o r k p a c k a g e d e f i n i -t i o n o f m a t e r i a l s , p r o c e s s e s a n d m a n h o u i s b a s e don es t imates o f work conten t measurement aqa inb y c o m p u t e r a s s i s t e d m e t h o d s .

W ' i t h t h e t ' i g h t m a r k e t c o n d i t j o n s a l r e a d y o u t -I i n e d , t h ' i s a d v a n c e d t e c h n o l o g y s h i p b u i i a i n ga p p r o a c h p r o v i d e s u s w ' i t h t h e u t m o s t f l e x - i b i l i t y' i n o u r m a r k e t a p p r o a c h a n d h e n c e ' i n o u r a b i 1 i t yt o r e s p o n d t o p o t e n t ' i a l b u s ' i n e s s o f a s o p h i s t i -ca ted na ture f rom e i ther the merchant , nava lo r o f fshore sec tors .

A l l t h e i n g r e d i e n t s o f t h e n e w t e c h n o l o g y a n da d v a n c e d s h ' i p b u i l d i n g m e t h o d s a n d c o n t r o l , e t c .a r e c o m ' i n g t o g e t h e r i n t h e d e s ' i g n i n g a n d b u i l d -i n g o f t h e B P S W O P S v e s s e l d e s c r i b e d a s t h ew o r l d ' s m o s t t e c h n o l o g i c a l ' l y s o p h i s t . i c a t e ds h i p ( s e e F i g . 1 0 ) .

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The Challenge of Change in Shipbuitding Today XX1

F o r e x a m p l e :- A ded ica ted pro jec t management team has been

s e t u p o n a j o i n t v e n t u r e b a s i s w . i t h t h e c u s _t o m e r , t h a t i s b e t w e e n H & W a n d B p , a n d t h e i re n g i n e e r i n g c o n s u l t a n t s M a t t h e w H a l l , a n d n o wc o m p r i s e s s o m e 2 5 p e r s o n n e l ;

- Network ana ' l ys is se t up on a 3 t ie r sys tema n d c o m p r i s i n g 3 , 5 0 0 e v e n t s ;

- D e f i n i t i v e b u i l d s t r a t e g y i n d e n t i f y i n g 1 6 0m o d u l e s a n d p ' i p e b a n k s a n d s e v e r a l e l e c t r i c a lc a b l e f r a m e s , e t c . ;

- F u l l C A D g r a p h i c s i n s t r u c t u r a l d e s i q n a n dmanufactur i ng i nformat i on ;

- Fu l I CAD/CAM ' in p ' ipework des ign and manufac-t u r e ;

- F u l l C A D l a y o u t o f s y s t e m d r a w i n g s ;- Computer based cont ro l o f rE ter ia l s and pro-

d u c t j o n s c h e d u l e s , j o b c a r d s , w o r k c o n t e n td a t a , v i a 2 0 0 t e r m i n a l s a r o u n d t h e w c r k s t oIBM common databases ;

- E l e c t r o n i c j o b t i m e r e c o r d i n g .T h e H & W E n g i n e e r i n g D i v i s i o n w i l l a l s o m a k eheavy use o f the CAD/CAM sys tems . in cont r ibu t -

i n g s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o t h e c c n s t r u c t . i o n o f t h i sv e s s e l t h r o u g h t h e p r o v i s i o n o f g e n e r a t i n ge n g i n e s , t h r u s t e r s , c o n s o l e s a n d - t h e m o d u i a ri n s t a l l a t i o n o f s w ' i t c h b o a r d s , o t h e r p r i m em o v e r s a n d c o n t r o l r o o m s . T h e d i v i s i o n w i l l a l s ob e r e s p o n s j b l e f o r t h e i n s t a l l a t i o n o f t h e o n -b o a r d p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t f a c i l i t y . T h i s i n t e g r a -t i o n o f e l e c t r i c a l a n d m a r j n e e n g i n e e r i n g i s u n' impor tan t con t r ibu t ion to such a comp' lex"sh i pand cou l d on ly be car r - ied ou t w i th fu l I e f fec ti n a _ f u 1 1 y ' i n t e g r a t e d s h i p b u i l d i n g / e n g i n e e r i n gc o m p l e x s u c h a s w e h a v e a t H & W i n - B e l i a s t .

T h e p l a c i n g o f t h i s c o n t r a c t a t t h e y a r d i s s e e nby u : no t on ly as a means o f demonst ra t ing ourt o t a l N e w T e c h n o l o g y c a p a b i l i t y , b u t a l s o a s a ne n t f y i n t o m o r e s o p h i s t i c a t e d s h i p d e s . i g n a n db u i l d i n g f o r t h e o i l a n d g a s i n d u i t r y i n t h .f u t u r e . T h e r e ' i s e v e r y - i n d i c a t i o n t h i t m o r e - o ft h e s e c o m p l e x v e s s e l s o r t h e i r d e r i v a t i v e s w i i lbe requ ' i red in the coming years and we in tend tor e m a i n ' i n a s t r o n g p o s i t i o n t o s e c u r e s u c ho r d e r s .

I am conv inced there fore tha t the key ingred- ien tst o s u r v i v e a n d " i n d u e c o u r s e f r o u r i s h w i i r r i l r eo t h e r s u r v i v o r s o f t h e c u r r e n t s h i p b u i l d i n gc r i s ' i s a r e n e w t e c h n o ' l o g y , c o u p l e d w i t h a n a d _v a n c e d s h i p b u i l d i n g o r g a n . i s a t . i o n , c o n t r o l s a n dm e t h o d s .

xxl l l

PANEL DISCUSSION: CHANGES IN COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY

Modera tor : R . C. Moore - Newpor t News Sh i pbu i ' l d i ng

T h e p a n e l s e s s i o n c o n s i s t e d o f t w o l e c t u r e s o nt h e s t a t e d t o p i c s f o l l o w e d b y a n o p e n d i s c u s s i o n .T h e I e c t u r e s a r e s u m m a r i z e d a s f o l I o w s :" T h e M a r i n e I n d u s t r y ' s N e e d f o r C a n o n i c a l D a t aTrans fer " by R.C. Moore - Newpor t News Sh ip-b u i 1 d i n g .

T h i s l e c t u r e d e s c r i b e d t h e a c t i v i t i e s o f c u s -t o m e r , d e s i g n a g e n t , b u i l d e r , v e n d o r , o p e r a t o r ,a n d m a i n t a ' i n e r i n t h e ' l i f e c y c l e o f a M a r . i n eV e h i c l e . T h e u s e o f c o m p u t e r a i d s i n t h e s ea c t i v i t i e s p r o v i d e s s p e c ' i f . i c b e n e f . i t s t o e a c harea. Cur ren t ' l y , shared benef i t s by a ' l 1 ac t i v i -t ies f rom data w i th in the computer sys tem aren o t a v a i l a b l e .

A s tandard ' i zed se t .

o f recogn i zed ru1 es , descr i p -t i o n , a n d f o r m a t , i . e . a c a n o n i c a l f o r m , w o u ' l da l I ow d i f fe ren t computer sys tems to share . in fo r -m a t i o n . C a n o n ' i c a l f o r m s a r e p r o d u c t s e n s i t . i v e ,t h e r e f o r e , t h e M a r i n e I n d u s t r y m u s t e s t a b l i s ha s e t o f p r o d u c t d e f i n i t i o n s f o r . i t e m s s u c h a sp i p e , v e n t i l a t i o n , p l a t e s , s t i f f e n e r s , a n dm a c h i n e r y c o m p o n e n t s . P r o d u c t d e f i n . i t i o n s m u s tserve the needs o f each ac t iv . i t y . Documentsr e q u i r e d f o r t h e p r o d u c t s m u s t a l s o h a v e a c a n o n -i c a l f o r m .

Requ i rements fo r da ta exchange are more . impor -t a n t f o r n a v a l s h i p s a n d s p e c i a ' l t y s t r u c t u r e sp e r h a p s t h a n c o m m e r c i a l v e s s e l s . N a t i o n a l a n din te rna t jona l e f fo r ts a re in p rogress to es tab-l i s h a n d d o c u m e n t r e q u i r e d c a n o n i c a l f o r m s f o rC A D / C A M d a t a . I G E S ( t n i t i a l G r a p h i c s E x c h a n g eS p e c i f i c a t i o n s ) , P D E S ( P r o d u c t D e f - i n i t i o nE x c h a n g e S p e c i f i c a t i o n ) , p D D i ( p r o d u c t D e f i n i -t ' i on Data In te r face) , and IS0 s tandard representsuch e f fo r ts . The Mar ine Indus t ry shou ld es tab-I i sh spec i f i c work g roups ' in these e f fo r ts toa d d r e s s M a r i n e P r o d u c t R e q u i r e m e n t .

The need fo r da ta in te rchange s tandards ,

T h e i m p a c t o f i n t e l l i g e n t g r a p h i c s w o r k

a ncl

s ta t i ons on CAD/CAM in t he Mar i ne i ndus t r y

" W o r k S t a t i o n s - T r e n d s a n d p e r s p e c t i v e s i nHardware and Sof tware" by K. Eus tace. S t ruc tura lD y n a m i c s R e s e a r c h C o r p o r a t i o n .

Mr . Eus tace covered the fo l l ow ing top ics . in th isp re sen ta t ' i on :- I m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n s i n s e l e c t i n g a w o r k

s t a t ' i o n ;

- W o r k s t a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t . i c s ;

- Needed improvements ;- C u r r e n t a n d 1 9 8 7 w o r k s t a t i o n t r e n d s ;- G r a p h i c s c a p a b i l i t i e s ;- Ma jor vendor s t ra tegy .In summary , work s ta t ' ions by 1987 w i l l be morei n t e l l i g e n t a n d c a p a b l e . T h e y w i l l r u n a w i d erangg_ o f compl ex appf i ca t i ons i nc l ud i ng so1 i dm o d e l l i n g . a n d g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e t h e a U i i i t y o f as ing le ma ' in f rame computer to serv ice la rge num_b e r s o f u s e r s .

C o m m u n i c a t i o n s a n d c o n t r o l w i l l m a t u r e a n d p r o -v ide techno logy requ i red fo r d is t r ibu ted ne iwor rp r o c e s s i n g . B o t h I B M a n d D E C w i l l b e m a j o r s u p _p l i e r s o f t h e s e t y p e s o f w o r k s t a t i o n s . I

T h e d i s c u s s i o n t h a t f o l l o w e d f o c u s e d o n m a n yq u e s t i o n s a b o u t w o r k s t a t . i o n t e c h n o l o g y a n da p p l i c a t ' i o n .

l .

PANEL DISCUSSION: ARE RoBoTIc DEVICES NECESSARY?

Moderator : CHENGI KUO

Summary of the Dlscussion

The aud ience , w i th the a id o f a sma l l pane l cons is t i ng o f p ro fesso r Fu j i t a and Mr Maccoy ,addressed the fo l l ow ing ques t ions :

What are Shipbui ld ing Robots ?

A number o f sugges t ions were made , rang ing f rom "a numer i ca l l y con t ro l l ed mach ine , , t o , radev ice w i th a r t i f i c i a l i n te l l i gence" bu t the re was so rne d i f f i cu l t y i n reach ing a s ing le ,comprehens ive de f in i t i on o f a robo t . A f te r d i scuss ion , however , i t was ag reed tha t asp rec ise de f in i t i on was no t too impor tan t p rov ided i t was accep ted tha t a robo t wou ld beab le to pe r fo rm repe t i t i ve opera t ions w i th an accep tab le degree o f accu racy .

Why Use Robo ts?

A number o f t asks were iden t i f i ed , the key ones inc rud ing :

a ) To do dangerous tasksb) To do unsoc iab le workc ) To adop t f l ex ib le manu fac tu r ing techn lquesd) To ach ieve cons is tency and h igh p rec i s ione) To reach fo r more cos t e f fec t i veness and econorn lc pe r fo rmancef ) To irnprove des igns .

Wha t a re the i r A reas o f App l i ca t i on in Sh ipbu i l d ing?

)

3 .

4 .

The fo l lowing range of appl icat ions was

Welding

Handl ing

Assenb l ing -

Pa in t i ng

Trans po r ta t i on

Cut t i ng

Inp roved p roduc t ione f f i c i e n c y

Grea te r accu racy

Decreas ing losses

Improved environment

o u t l l n e d :

Bending

Ins pec t ion

Non-des t ruct ive Tes t ingSho t -b las r l ng

C lean ing

Prepar ing p ipes

Improved qual i ty of workou tpu t

Savings in labour

G r e a t e r s a f e t y

Improvements in design

xxvl

5. What are the Problems?

C. Kuo

A number o f p rac t i ca l p rob lems were d i scussed , i nc lud ing :

ve ry h igh cos ts sens ing

need o f sk l l l ed work fo rce - soc la l p rob lems

spec ia l t oo l i ng ro . t t o t . " a t t i t udes

In teg ra t ion w i th compute r - l n teg ra ted manu fac tu re

Need of b lack box to l ink technlques to the "real" wor ld

Inc reas ing d l f f l cu l t i es w i th the re l l ab i l i t y o f dev lces as the degrees o ff reedom inc rease .

6 . Wha t Wi l l be the Robo t i c Fea tu res o f the Fu tu re?

Those sugges ted inc luded :

Robo ts w l th i n te l l i gence

More degrees o f f redom

Bet te r l n teg ra t ion w l th p roduc t ion

Reduc t lon o f o f l ead t ime ln p roduc t lon

Be t te r sens ing , wh ich w l l l i nc rease the leve l o f accu racy

L lnk lng w i th f i f t h -genera t l -on compute rs

Be t te r and s imp le r p rog ranmlng

7 . Do We Need Robo ts?

The resu l t o f a vo te was as fo l l ows :

N 0 3

T: : - "no lo" . ,50

The c lea r message i s tha t robo ts w l l l de f ln l te l y p lay a ma jo r ro le i n the fu tu re bu t tha tg reaE ca re mus t be taken to ensure tha t the i r use i s j us t i f i ed on economic g rounds as we l las fo r pu re l y techn ica l reasons .

xxvii

PANEL DISCUSSION: INFLUENCE OF COMPUTERS ON SHIPYARD ORGANIZATIONM o d e r a t o r : G . S a n i - C E N T E N A , S . p . A . , I t a l y

T h e u s e o f c o m p u t e r s h a s s p r e a d t o p r a c t i c a l ' l ya l I t h e a c t i v i t i e s o f s h . i p y a r d s i n t h e I a s td g g g A g , a i m ' i n g t o o b t a i n a f i n a l p r o d u c t ( s f r i p ;w i t h h i g h e r q u a l i t y ' l e v e l s a n d l o w e r c o s t s . H o w -ever , another impor tan t aspec t , beyond the tech_n ' i c a l o n e , h a s m a r k e d t h i s e v e n t b y c h a n g . i n gt h e t r a d i t i o n a l w a y o f m a n a g i n g s h i p y a r d i , i e -s o u r c e s i n t e r m s o f m e n a n d m a c h i n e s .

The present pane l dea l t , i n e f fec t , w . i th someo r g a n i z a t i o n a l a s p e c t s e n t a i l e d b y t h e . i n c r e a s e dr e s o r t t o t h e c o m p u t e r i n t h e d a i l y a c t i v i t j e so f t h e s h i p y a r d .

T h e p a n e i w a s b a s e d o n t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f t h ee x p e r i e n c e o f f o u r q u a ' l j f i e d i n v i t e d p e r s o n sf rom sh i pyards i n d ' i f fe ren t count r i es :- Mr . Edoardo Cob ' ianco

F i n c a n t i e r j S h i p y a r d s ( I t a ' l y ) ;- Mr . Ar t tu Suonn la inen

V i c e P r e s i d e n t o f W d r t s i l a H e l s i n k iS h i p y a r d ( F i n l a n d ) ;

- M r . R o g e r V e r h a s s e l tB o e l w e r f S h i p y a r d ( B e l g i u m ) ;

- Mr . Yuhzoh Yamaguch iOppgma Sh ipyard , Sumi tomo Heavy Indus t r . ies( J a p a n ) .

In a l l the , represented sh ipyards computer app ' l . i -

ca t ions had advanced ' in such a vvay as to causea s t rong impact on the organ iza t ion o f the res-p e c t i v e c o m p a n i e s .

Severa l aspec ts were presented and d iscusseda n d w i l l b e b r i e f l y s u m m a r i z e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g :- D o e s t h e d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n o f c o m p u t e r r e s o u r c e s

cause any@the way o f work ingw i t h i n t h e s h i p y a r d ?

T h e a n s w e r o f t h e B e l g i a n a n d I t a l . i a n s h i p -y a r d s w a s a f f i r m a t i v e : i n t h e i r o w n e x p e r i e n c e ,resor t ing to loca l hardware /so f tware in smal ls e c t i o n s o f t h e s h i p y a r d i n p l a c e o f u s i n g acentral system has proved to be very ef fe i -t i v e i n a l l t h e a r e a s i n v o l v e d , b o t h i n t h et e c h n i c a l o f f i c e s a n d i n t h e s h o p s a n d a l s owhen app' l ied to the management of men andmater ia l resources .

T h i s i s b a s ' i c a l l y d u e t o m o r e f l e x i b l e m a n /computer in te rac t ion and to a consequen i lymore favourab le a t t i tude on the par t o f t i repersonne l who fee l more invo lved in the pro-d u c t i o n p r o c e s s .

There are a l so fee l ings tha t th . i s pa t te rn

c o u l d b e f r u i t f u l l y e x t r a p o l a t e d t o t h e u s e o fP C ' s i n s ' i n g 1 e o f f i c e s .

- Does the use o f the computer have any impacto n ! ! e s e q u e n c e o f t h e s h i p y a r d ' s a c t i v i t j e s ,t r a d i t i o n a l ' l y v i e w e d u n d e r t h e d o m i n a n t c o n -cept o f 'opera t ' ion type ' ?

A n o n g o ' i n g J a p a n e s e p r o j e c t a i m s a t u s i n g t h ea l t e r n a t i v e c o n c e p t o f , . i n t e g r a t i o n '

, w h i c hmeans that every ship zon6- iTTuT[ bu. i1t ,t . i . h u l l , o u t f i t t i n g a n d r e l a t e d a c t i v - i t . i e s ,b e f o r e a f o l l o w ' i n g z o n e i s c o n s i d e r e d . T h i s i sthe oppog i te concept to tha t o f des ign ing /f a b r j c a t ' i n g t h e e n t i r e h u l 1 , t h e n o u [ f i t l i n g' i t , e t c .

T h i s ' i s p o s s i b l e d u e t o t h e a v a i l a b i l i t v o fcomplex computer da ta banks (wh ich per r i t theuse o f every type o f ins t rumenta t ion a t anyt i m e , n o m a t t e r h o w c o m p l e x t h e s h i p a r e a ) ,' in wh ich a l I the d i f fe ren t components a rei n t e g r a t e d .

- C h a n g e s a r e l i k e l y t o o c c u r a l s o i n t h e f u n c -t iona l o rgan iza t iona l schemes o f the sh . ipyards ;i n t h e V a r t s i l a S h i p y a r d s t h e t r a d i t j o n a i - O e -pendence on hu l l p roduc t ion documenta t ion bythe techn ica l o f f i ces has been superseded i ;favour o f an in tegra ted produc t . ion func t ionwh ' ich i nc I udes bo th the ac t i v . i t i es o f the oro-d u c t i o n I i n e a n d t h e o r i g i n a t . i o n o f t h e r e i a -t ' i v e d o c u m e n t s .

- An educat iona l p rob lem is ra ised by the needfoFi" n6il-Fl6Tessionat profite coveri;g i l ;.i n t e g r a t e d w o r k ' i n g f u n c t i o n s t h a n . i n t i e p a s t .T h e t r a d i t i o n a l

_ e x p e r t i s e i n d e a l i n g w i t h s h i ps t ruc tu res shou l d match tha t o f da t i p rocess_i n g e x p e r t i s e , i n o r d e r t o c o p e w i t h a m o d e r nq p p r o a c h t o t h e d e s i g n / p r o d u c t i o n s h i p p r o b -I e m s .

The ava i l abi ' l i ty of separate resources i sne ' i ther econom' ica l nor p rac t ica l l y use fu l ; th ismeans tha t a new eng ineer /employee is t ra . inedto bear in mind bo th exper . iences and shou ldb e a b l e t o l o o k a t t h e s h i p a s a s y s t e m .

T h i s f a c t n a t u r a l l y e n t a i l s a h i g h e r d e g r e e o fd i f f i c u l t y i n t h e c o n t r o l o f t h e e n s u i n g c o m -p1 ex sys tems.

The above nBnt ioned and o ther minor p rob lemswere d i scussed.

xxix

EXPERT SYSTEMS TUTORIAL

Dr K J MacCal lum

Department of Ship and Mar ine TechnologyUn ive rs i t y o f S t ra thc l yde , G lasgow

I. A DEFINITION OF EXPERT SYSTEMS

It is d i f f icul t nowadays to read the tech-n i ca l p ress , and somet imes even the popu la rp ress , w i thou t coming ac ross some re fe renceto i n te l l l gen t compute r sys tems , know ledge-based sys tems , o r exper t sys tems . Fo r many ,the emot ive s ignl f icance of words such asln te l l i gence , know ledge and exper t i se l ead toa sense o f d i squ ie t when they a re app l i ed tomach ines and may resu l t i n ou t r i gh t re jec t l onw i thou t su f f i c ien t founda t ion . However , f o rmany who have watched the rapid developmento f comput ing sys tems over the years , i t i shard not to be exci ted by the new ideas andthe apparen t po ten t ia l o f a new genera t ion o fsys tems . Perhaps su rp r i s ing ly the exc i te fnen tof some is not based on any f i rmer foundat ionthan the susp ic ion o f oEhers . So wha t a reexpert systems which we hear so much about?

An exper t sys tem cou ld be desc r ibed as a sys -tem which aims to exhiblr a BEHAVIOUR whichcan be cons ide red inEe l l l gen t , by tack l l ng aspec ia l l sed p rob lem doma in and demons t ra t i ngexper t i se a t so l v ing p rob lems in th i s doma in .I t depends on heur lst ics ( ru les of thurnb) tomode l human exper t i se .

Such a def in i t ion is lncomplete and probablyunsa t i s fac to ry because i t i s a sub jecE ivedesc r ip t i on and because i t does no t d i s t i n -gu ish c lea r l y be tween exper t sys tems ando the r sys tems . However , i t does emphas iseone important ethos ln the expert systemsapproach , l _ .e . l t l s behav iou r i n a l im i tedand spec ia l l sed doma in wh ich l s the f i na lm e t r i c f o r l t s s u c c e s s .

Persona l l y , I p re fe r a de f in i t i on wh ich ,a l though a l so incomp leEe , says someth ingabou t the s t ruc tu re o f the sys tem.

An exper t sys tem i s a compute r sys tem wh ichis able to enact the ro le of a human expert ,i . e . has a spec ia l i sed body o f know ledge andis ab le to app ly l t t o so l ve p rob lems , to ad -v i se , to ac t as a consu l tanE and to commun i -ca te know ledge to o the rs . A ma jo r d i f f e rencef rom conven t iona l so f tware i s the EXPLIC ITREPRESENTATION OF KNOWLEDGE.

These de f in i t i ons wh l le i n i t i a l l y use fu l on lyte l l us a l imi ted amount about expert sys-tems ; they don ' t rea l l y beg in to improve ou runders tand ing .

2 .

Par t o f Ehe d i f f i cu l t y i s tha t a ce r ta in mys_t ique has developed round the idea of anexpert . system. Let us look at some of thethlngs which have been said about expert sys-tems ln rhe techn ica l p ress . F i r s t t hepromis es !

" the sys tem wou ld con ta in experc sys tem

type modu les fo r a reas l i ke tax adv ice sotha t sma l l bus inesses cou ld avo id theexpense o f an accoun tanE. He cou ld bu i l da useful l ibrary of h is exper iences whichcou ld be s to red e l sewhere"

"one of the f i rs t Japanese new-generat ionproducts could be a hand-held f i le pro-cess lng compute r w l th so f tware h igh lyin te l l i g ib le to Ehe use r . The use r wou ldbe able to demand an explanat ion f rorn themachine as to what it was doing and why,and change i t i f need be"

I tExpert systems have a market p lace est i -

mated at many hundreds of mi l l ions of Sover the next . few years"

"A doctor could feed his computer wl tha l l t he ln fo rmat ion abou t a pa r t l cu la rcancer , and then ques t ion i t t o f i ndenswers to a pa t ien t rs spec i f i c p rob lems t t

' rwhen an oi l b l t gets stuck in rock, an

exper t sys tem fed w i th a l l t he re levan tfac ts cou ld so r t t ha t ou t much morequlckly and cheaply than an exist ingcomputerr l

"Exper t sys tems cou ld be ins ta l l ed in

ca rs fo r d r i ve rs to de te rm ine fau l t s ,when ac t i va ted by vo ice recogn i t i on " .

Need less to say , some peop le have some rese r -va t lons abou t the poss lb i l i t y o r even the de_s i rab i l i t y o f t hese p ro rn l sed sys tems .

"Expert systems are designed wi th a con-

sensus of knowledge. How accurate isthat consensus? How do we assess thelegi t i rnacy of one body of knowledge overano the r?

"There i s a l ready cons lde rab le p ressureon doctors to learn habi ts of thoughtthaE a re e f f i c ien t , sw i f t and as super -

XXX

f i c l a l as sa fe ty w l l l pe rm l t . Doc to rs asa group are prone to take advanLage ofany short cuLs Ehat they can convl-ncethemse lves a re au tho r l t a t l ve . In sho r tthey a re ap t to be suckers fo r exper ts ys tems . Will their o\^ln diagnos ticsk l l l s , t he l r deepes t unders tand ing o frned ic ine be jeopard ised by the w ideadop t ion o f exper t sys tems?"

I t might wel l seem somet imes that we are al lsuckers fo r exper t sys tems . I f so r l t wou ldprovLde a mot lve for perpetuat ing the mys-t ique! I f we examine th is myst lque just ab i t more ca re fu l l y we can see th ree aE t i t udest o e x p e r t s y s t e m s :

A - TI{E SALESMANIS DREAMHere l ies much of the source of the popu-la r i s l -ng o f the po ten t ia l o f exper t sys -tems . Tha t i s , t he sa lesman p rov ides theVIS ION. Fo r many sa lesmen