computer services: financial technology · 2013-01-28 · computer services: financial technology |...

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Equity Research LOS ANGELES | SAN FRANCISCO | NEW YORK | BOSTON | SEATTLE | MINNEAPOLIS | DALLAS Wedbush Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see page 13 of this report for analyst certification and important disclosure information. Computer Services: Financial Technology Computer Services: Financial Technology January 27, 2013 Gil Luria (213) 688-4501 [email protected] Aaron Turner (213) 688-4429 [email protected] Connecting the Dots: New Era of Decoupled Debit Biggest Potential Threat to V and MA We believe V and MA own exceptionally strong, well-managed businesses that will continue to grow earnings for years, based on emerging market growth. However, we believe that the emergence of merchant-branded decoupled debit (MBDD) may signal a slowdown in volume growth for V and MA and their developed market issuers. We believe the emergence of MBDD will reduce top line growth for V and MA by 1-2pp a year in the US starting next year, putting pressure on their long-term guidance (page 2). We believe that although investors are aware of retailer frustration, Target’s decoupled debit program, surcharging, improved fraud capabilities and MCX, the connection has not been made regarding the inflection point for decoupled debit. We believe that the threat of decoupled debit is no longer a theoretical risk, but rather a trend to be reflected in V/MA’s prospects. Our industry checks lead us to believe that with only moderate accomplishments in the legislative front and litigation front, retailers are broadly ready to take the fight with the networks to the competitive front. Decoupled debit is already the fastest growing category in Payments, according to industry figures. ACH Debit grew 52% in 2011, based almost entirely on the success of early decoupled debit programs – Target, Nordstrom and Shell. Target has already cracked the code with its Redcard program, which now accounts for 20% of payment volumes in its earliest implementation, all being routed away from V/MA (pages 3-6). Target has reported that these customers spend 50% more at Target stores, more than justifying the 5% off it provides Redcard holders. We believe the possibility of surcharging introduced in 40 states as of today (1/27/13) may be Trojan horse for retailers to attract consumers to MBDD. Surcharging (which was allowed by V/MA’s recent settlement with retailers) may allow a broad set of retailers to replicate Target’s powerful 5% incentive (e.g., 2% surcharge on V/MA and a 3% discount). Our survey implies many consumers don’t require more then 2% off to switch. We see MCX as a tool for retailers to exploit shifting technologies to introduce MBDD products in direct competition with V/MA. Retailers intend to exploit the disruption caused by the shift to mobile payments in order to introduce a new loyalty and payment experience that is different from their behavior with plastic, just as SBUX did. We believe retailers will “rent” the required network functionality from partners such as Discover, PayPal, TSYS, First Data, National Payment Card that all have the decoupled debit functionality available off-the-shelf. Introducing below-consensus forecast for 2014 based on incremental threat from decoupled debit. Our revenue and EPS forecast for Visa is $12.6 billion and $8.28, respectively, and for MA $9.1 billion and $29.64, respectively. We believe that the news flow from the acceleration of decoupled debit could have a similar impact on the introduction of Durbin, especially as V and MA trade above their historical multiples and at a premium to large-cap growth stocks (pages 9,10). Maintain NEUTRAL rating on V and $145 price target. Our target represents a 17x multiple on our FY14 EPS estimate, in line with our long-term growth estimate based on resilience to regulation and litigation. Maintain NEUTRAL rating on MA and $460 price target. Our target represents an 16x multiple on our 2014 EPS estimate, in line with our long-term growth estimate based on resilience to regulation and litigation, with higher likelihood than Visa to see decelerating growth. Risks to the attainment of our PTs include an economic slowdown, bank consolidation and the revaluation of the U.S.dollar. Company Ticker Rating Price Target 1/25/13 Price FYE WS Curr Cons WS Curr Cons WS Curr Cons WS Curr Cons Visa V NEUTRAL $145 $159.84 Sept $11,432 $11,549 $12,595 $12,866 $7.22 $7.27 $8.28 $8.41 Mastercard MA NEUTRAL 460 $519.42 Dec 8,063 8,265 9,103 9,304 25.12 25.64 29.64 30.53 2014E Rev 2014E EPS 2013E Rev 2013E EPS

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Page 1: Computer Services: Financial Technology · 2013-01-28 · Computer Services: Financial Technology | 3 Decoupled Debit Already Fastest Growing Category in Payments According to industry

Equity

Research

L O S A N G E L E S | S A N F R A N C I S C O | N E W Y O R K | B O S T O N | S E A T T L E | M I N N E A P O L I S | D A L L A S

Wedbush Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see page 13 of this report for analyst certification and important disclosure information.

Computer Service

s: Finan

cial Tec

hnology

Computer Services: Financial Technology

January 27, 2013

Gil Luria (213) 688-4501 [email protected]

Aaron Turner (213) 688-4429 [email protected]

Connecting the Dots: New Era of Decoupled Debit Biggest Potential Threat to V and MA • We believe V and MA own exceptionally strong, well-managed businesses that will continue to grow earnings for

years, based on emerging market growth. However, we believe that the emergence of merchant-branded decoupled debit (MBDD) may signal a slowdown in volume growth for V and MA and their developed market issuers.

• We believe the emergence of MBDD will reduce top line growth for V and MA by 1-2pp a year in the US starting next year, putting pressure on their long-term guidance (page 2).

• We believe that although investors are aware of retailer frustration, Target’s decoupled debit program, surcharging, improved fraud capabilities and MCX, the connection has not been made regarding the inflection point for decoupled debit. We believe that the threat of decoupled debit is no longer a theoretical risk, but rather a trend to be reflected in V/MA’s prospects.

• Our industry checks lead us to believe that with only moderate accomplishments in the legislative front and litigation front, retailers are broadly ready to take the fight with the networks to the competitive front.

• Decoupled debit is already the fastest growing category in Payments, according to industry figures. ACH Debit grew 52% in 2011, based almost entirely on the success of early decoupled debit programs – Target, Nordstrom and Shell.

• Target has already cracked the code with its Redcard program, which now accounts for 20% of payment volumes in its earliest implementation, all being routed away from V/MA (pages 3-6). Target has reported that these customers spend 50% more at Target stores, more than justifying the 5% off it provides Redcard holders.

• We believe the possibility of surcharging introduced in 40 states as of today (1/27/13) may be Trojan horse for retailers to attract consumers to MBDD. Surcharging (which was allowed by V/MA’s recent settlement with retailers) may allow a broad set of retailers to replicate Target’s powerful 5% incentive (e.g., 2% surcharge on V/MA and a 3% discount). Our survey implies many consumers don’t require more then 2% off to switch.

• We see MCX as a tool for retailers to exploit shifting technologies to introduce MBDD products in direct competition with V/MA. Retailers intend to exploit the disruption caused by the shift to mobile payments in order to introduce a new loyalty and payment experience that is different from their behavior with plastic, just as SBUX did.

• We believe retailers will “rent” the required network functionality from partners such as Discover, PayPal, TSYS, First Data, National Payment Card that all have the decoupled debit functionality available off-the-shelf.

• Introducing below-consensus forecast for 2014 based on incremental threat from decoupled debit. Our revenue and EPS forecast for Visa is $12.6 billion and $8.28, respectively, and for MA $9.1 billion and $29.64, respectively.

• We believe that the news flow from the acceleration of decoupled debit could have a similar impact on the introduction of Durbin, especially as V and MA trade above their historical multiples and at a premium to large-cap growth stocks (pages 9,10).

• Maintain NEUTRAL rating on V and $145 price target. Our target represents a 17x multiple on our FY14 EPS estimate, in line with our long-term growth estimate based on resilience to regulation and litigation.

• Maintain NEUTRAL rating on MA and $460 price target. Our target represents an 16x multiple on our 2014 EPS estimate, in line with our long-term growth estimate based on resilience to regulation and litigation, with higher likelihood than Visa to see decelerating growth.

• Risks to the attainment of our PTs include an economic slowdown, bank consolidation and the revaluation of the U.S.dollar.

Company Ticker RatingPrice

Target 1/25/13

Price FYE WS Curr Cons WS Curr Cons WS Curr Cons WS Curr ConsVisa V NEUTRAL $145 $159.84 Sept $11,432 $11,549 $12,595 $12,866 $7.22 $7.27 $8.28 $8.41Mastercard MA NEUTRAL 460 $519.42 Dec 8,063 8,265 9,103 9,304 25.12 25.64 29.64 30.53

2014E Rev 2014E EPS2013E Rev 2013E EPS

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Computer Services: Financial Technology| 2

Connecting the Dots: New Era of Decoupled Debit Biggest Potential Threat to V and MA

We believe the emergence of merchant-branded decoupled debit (MBDD) will reduce top-line growth for V and MA by 1-2pp a year in the U.S. starting next year and eventually other developed markets, thus putting pressure on their 11-14% CAGR long-term guidance. Our analysis (Figure 1) assumes a gradual deployment of MBDD by top retailers in the US, then other retailers in the lifestyle categories, up to 15% peak penetration.

We believe that although investors are aware of retailer frustration with the payment networks, the early success of Target’s decoupled debit program, the new possibility of surcharging, improved fraud capabilities and the emergence of the MCX merchant JV, the connection has not been made that combined these foretell the inflection point for decoupled debit. We believe that the threat of decoupled debit is no longer a theoretical risk, but rather a trend to be reflected in V/MA’s prospects.

The background to this trend is retailers’ mounting frustration with the cost of card acceptance, which they broadly see as one of their highest-cost categories. Our industry checks lead us to believe that with only moderate accomplishments in the legislative front (Durbin amendment to Dodd Frank) and litigation front (class settlement), retailers are broadly ready to take the fight with the networks to the competitive front.

In the meantime, over the last couple of years, Target has been able to crack the code of decoupled debit with its Redcard program, which now accounts for 20% and growing of payment volumes (Credit and Debit) in its earliest implementation, with debit representing 3 of every 4 Redcards issued. Target reports a 50% uplift for these customers, more than justifying the 5% off it provides Redcard holders. We believe that although Target has deep financial expertise and a well-differentiated merchandise mix, and that retailers can’t all simultaneously have a 50% uplift, the compelling economics will drive more retailers to go down the MBDD path going forward.

We believe the possibility of surcharging made possible in 40 states today may be Trojan horse for retailers to attract consumers. We believe the newly established ability by retailers to incent consumers away from some payment types, opens the door for retailers to charge consumers for using V/MA credit cards, while providing a discount for their own MBDD product. This may allow abroad set of retailers to replicate Target’s powerful 5% incentive (e.g., 2% surcharge on V/MA and a 3% discount).

We see MCX as a platform and a tool for retailers to exploit shifting technology to introduce MBDD products in direct competition with V/MA. The limited communication from MCX has been abundantly clear on this point – retailers see it as a way to break the Visa MasterCard hegemony on payments. They intend to exploit the disruption caused by the shift to mobile payments in order to accomplish this upheaval. As consumers adapt to paying with their phones, merchants believe they will be open to a new loyalty and payment experience that is different from their behavior with plastic. If MBDD products are implemented as Target has and MCX has promised, these transactions would happen entirely away from existing card networks Visa & MasterCard.

Figure 1: Potential Impact of MBDD on Visa and MasterCard’s US Market Growth

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGRCredit 2,052 2,256 2,493 2,755 3,044 3,364 3,717 4,108 10.5%Debit ex. EFT 1,386 1,545 1,624 1,707 1,795 1,887 1,984 2,085 5.1%EFT 262 302 352 411 480 560 654 763 16.7%

Decoupled DebitTarget Decoupled Debit 0.3 1 3 7 11 12 13 13MCX Consortium 5 18 47 105 161Lifestyle Retail (ex MCX) 6 24 62 138 213

Current V/MA US Credit/Debit Growth Trajectory 10.5% 8.3% 8.4% 8.4% 8.5% 8.6% 8.6%

Growth Potentially Eliminated by Decoupled DebitTarget DD 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%MCX DD 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 1.1% 1.0%Lifestyle Retailer ex MCX DD 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 1.4% 1.3%

Total Volume Growth Eliminated if Decoupled Debit Rolled Out Broadly 0.4% 0.8% 1.4% 2.5% 2.3%

Downside for V/MA US Credit/Debit Growth Trajectory 10.5% 8.3% 8.0% 7.7% 7.1% 6.0% 6.3%

Source: Nilson, Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc.

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Decoupled Debit Already Fastest Growing Category in Payments

According to industry figures from Nilson, the ACH Category (subset of EFT; see above Figure 1) grew 52% in 2011, based almost entirely on the success of early decoupled debit programs – first and foremost Target, but also Nordstrom and Shell. We believe the success of these early programs together with retailer motivation and shared tools from MCX will draw other retailers to this category. Figure 2 below illustrates the potential trajectory of MBDD if MCX retailers and then other lifestyle retailers (grocery, drug store, gas, general merchandise) also introduce MBDD.

We believe the main hurdle for retailers to introduce MBDD has been the fear of dealing with fraud and chargebacks – core elements of the V/MA network functionality. However, we believe the limited level of fraud in debit (Figure 3) and advances in technology have changed their perspective.

We believe these retailers will not all choose to implement this product in house as Target did and are more likely to “rent” the required network functionality (i.e., fraud control, chargebacks) from partners such as Discover, PayPal, TSYS, First Data, National Payment Card, or combination thereof. We would point out that TSYS, FDC and NPC all have the decoupled debit functionality available off-the-shelf (Figure 4) and that PayPal manages fraud and chargeback for card-not-present payments between 190 countries.

MBDD should not to be confused with other previously failed forms of decoupled debit, in our opinion. We believe financial entity-driven decoupled debit (e.g., Capital One, Tempo) were doomed by interchange economics and Durbin. Unlike MBDD, they relied on maintaining the financial intermediary (as well as the payment networks in some cases), while MBDD practically eliminated the intermediary and creates the savings necessary to pay for the consumer benefit.

We fully expect decoupled debit’s challenges to cause an escalation of conflict with banks. We believe that the inherent drawbacks of decoupled debit (dispute hierarchy, clearing delay and lack of real time visibility) may end up becoming a burden on the financial institution holding the checking account, prompting them to attempt a wedge between MBDD and consumers. However, we believe this would risk banks’ consumer relationships and that MBDD may cause meaningful damage before banks are successful addressing it.

Figure 2: Potential Trajectory of MBDD

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172012-16 CAGR

Target VolumesDebit Penetration 0.5% 1.8% 4.7% 10.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%Credit Penetration 4.8% 6.4% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%Merchandise Volume 67 68 71 73 76 80 87 88 5%Redcard Debit Volume 0 1 3 7 11 12 13 13 41%Redcard Credit Volume 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 5%Total Volume Routed Away from Networks 4 6 9 13 17 18 20 20 23%

MCX Consortium US VolumeMerchandise Volume 901 929 956 985 1,015 1,045 1,076 3%Decoupled Debit Penetration 0% 0.5% 1.8% 4.7% 10.0% 15.0%Decoupled Debit Volume 5 18 47 105 161

Lifestyle Retail - Grocery, Drug Store, Gas, General Merch (Beyond MCX)Merchandise Volume 1,187 1,223 1,259 1,297 1,336 1,376 1,418 3%Decoupled Debit Penetration 0% 0.5% 1.8% 4.7% 10.0% 15.0%Decoupled Debit Volume 6 24 62 138 213

Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc.

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Computer Services: Financial Technology| 4

Figure 3: Debit Fraud Losses

Signature PINTotal Fraud Loss $1.15 B $0.2 B Incidence 0.06% 0.01%$ Loss per Trans $0.05 $0.01Dollar Loss (bps) 12.71 3.19

Signature PINLoss $0.02 $0.01Loss (bps) 6.41 2.41

Mean Fraud Costs per Transaction (Issuers and Merchants)

Mean Fraud Costs per Transaction (Issuers Only)

Source: Federal Reserve, Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Figure 4: From TSYS Website

Decoupled debit is interesting for several reasons:

1. The issuer is not required to be a bank in order to offer an account and issue a card 2. The products can exist as private label products or co-branded products 3. The products can potentially build significant loyalty 4. The products reduce costs when delivered and managed correctly 5. The products leverage the existing payments infrastructure and standards

Retail Business Case

Retailers have a different mindset when it comes to alternative or decoupled products because they are stakeholders in the product, not just the transaction. They look at the product as a way to help them:

• Reduce cost of payments • Build loyalty • Offer merchant-designed promotions • Drive more store sales • Segment and target customer groups • Leverage ‘spend information’

Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc.

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Computer Services: Financial Technology| 5

Target Redcard Has Cracked the Code for Decoupled Debit in a Major Way We believe that although Target has some specific characteristics that made it more fertile ground for MBDD, the magnitude of its success will make it impossible for other retailers to ignore going forward, especially as Target touts its success to its investors as a key strategic initiative (Figures 6,7). Target is on track to making its MBDD represent 15% of its payment volume (and growing) driven by a 5% off loyalty program (Figure 5). Target has reported a 50% volume uplift for its store-branded Redcard (credit and debit) and in its earliest roll out has achieved 20% penetration, with ¾ of new activations coming from debit. The 5% discount applies to practically every item in the store, including competitive items such as the in-store Starbucks.

Figure 5: Redcard Benefits

Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc.

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Figure 6: Target Household Example

$ % of Sales $ % of Sales $ % of Sales $ % of SalesSales $1,000 $950 $550.0 $1,500.0Gross Margin 301 30.1% 251 26.4% 137.5 25.0% 388.5 25.9%SG&A 201 20.1% 191 20.1% 46.8 8.5% 237.8 15.9%EBITDA 100 10.0% 60 6.3% 90.8 16.5% 150.8 10.1%D&A 30 3.0% 30 3.2% 0.0 0.0% 30.0 2.0%EBIT 70 7.0% 30 3.2% 90.8 16.5% 120.8 8.1%

Baseline before 5% Rewards

Baseline after 5% Rewards

Incremental SalesHousehold after 5%

Rewards

Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Figure 7: Redcard Strategic Positioning for TGT

Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Figure 8: Target Redcard Penetration

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

Oct-09

Feb-10

Jun-1

0

Oct-10

Feb-11

Jun-11

Oct-11

Feb-12

Jun-1

2

Oct-12

Redcard Debit Redcard Credit

Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc.

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Computer Services: Financial Technology| 7

MCX not a Network in Itself, Rather an Accelerant for Decoupled Debit

We see MCX as a platform for retailers to exploit shifting technology to introduce MBDD products in direct competition with V/MA. We believe the limited communication from MCX has been abundantly clear on this point – retailers see it as a way to break the Visa MasterCard hegemony on payments. We believe they intend to exploit the disruption caused by the shift to mobile payments in order to accomplish this upheaval. As consumers adapt to paying with their phone, merchants believe they will be open to a new loyalty and payment experience that is different from their behavior with plastic. The most compelling proof lies in the success of the mobile app at Starbucks – by tying loyalty (every 13th coffee free) to the use of the app, SBUX has been able to train 3 million of its consumers to pay in an entirely new way.

Figure 9: US Revenue by Current MCX Consortium Members

In MillionsDom Intl

Wal Mart $264,186 $125,873CVS/Caremark 107,100Shell 91,946 378,225Target 68,466Sam's Club 53,795Lowe's 50,208Sunoco 46,824Best Buy 37,615 13,090Publix 26,967Sears 26,282K-Mart 15,285Meijer 14,6307-Eleven* 12,000Shop Rite 10,100Bed Bath & Beyond 8,759Starbucks 8,038 2,626Darden 7,999Wawa 6,990HyVee 6,900Dillard's 6,264Old Navy 5,282 392Sheetz 5,230Dick's Sporting Goods 5,212Michaels 4,210GAP 3,664 2,001HMS Host 2,700Hobby Lobby 2,280Banana Republic 2,060 378Dunkin Donuts 438 15Baskin Robbins 42 109Alon (part of 7-Eleven)Buy Buy Baby (bed bath sub)Christmas Tree Shops n/aHarmon Face Values (BBBY sub)Price RiteQT QuikTripTotal $901,471 $522,709

2011

Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc.

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Consumers Don’t Require Much More Then 2% Off to Switch

In a previous survey we conducted, 31% of consumers indicated they would switch away from their current debit card for a 2% discount on cash. We believe it is possible to extrapolate from this that a similar or larger discount could generate the same results for a MBDD product.

Figure 10: How Often Would You Use Your Debit Card Based on the Following?

Coffee Groceries JeansBaseline 23% 52% 42%2% Cash Discount 10% 21% 18%

Decline (13%) (31%) (24%)

$0.10/tx Fee on Debit 10% 21% 17%Decline (13%) (31%) (25%)

$0.50/tx Fee on Debit 8% 15% 12%Decline (15%) (37%) (30%)

Source: Wedbush Decision Metrics Survey, Wedbush Securities, Inc.

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Acceleration of Decoupled Debit Could Strain High Valuation

We believe that the news flow from the acceleration of this trend could have a similar impact to the introduction of the Durbin amendment (Figure 11), especially as V and MA trade above their historical average multiples (Figures 12,13) and at a premium to large-cap growth companies (Figure 14).

Figure 11: MA & V Share Price Relative to S&P 500 (pre-Durbin – current)

Visa Mastercard

Price% Chg

(absolute)

% Chg (ref to S&P

500) Price% Chg

(absolute)

% Chg (ref to S&P

500) Price% Chg

(absolute)

04/23/10 - High 96.59 12.7% 8.8% 267.22 14.9% 11.0% 1217.28 3.9%06/2/10 - V Low 69.88 (18.4%) (10.4%) 1077.04 (8.1%)06/9/10 - MA Low 194.17 (16.5%) (8.5%)

S&P 500

Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Figure 12: V Trailing P/E

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

Nov

-08

Feb-

09

May

-09

Aug

-09

Nov

-09

Feb-

10

May

-10

Aug

-10

Nov

-10

Feb

-11

May

-11

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Feb-

12

May

-12

Aug

-12

Nov

-12

Average 22x

Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Figure 13: MA Trailing P/E

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35xJa

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Jan-

10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Average 21x

Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc.

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Figure 14: Large Cap Growth Comp Table (>$25 billion market cap and >15% EPS growth)

2014/13Symbol Name Price Market Cap (B) Fwd P/E EPS Growth PEGAAPL Apple Inc. $514.01 $483.7 10.7x 18% 0.60xGOOG Google Inc. $738.11 $196.5 16.1x 18% 0.88xBAC Bank of America Corporation Com $11.42 $123.1 11.7x 31% 0.37xAMZN Amazon.com, Inc. $268.11 $121.4 154.4x 127% 1.22xSLB Schlumberger N.V. Common Stock $77.95 $103.8 16.2x 23% 0.70xCMCSA Comcast Corporation $40.00 $84.8 18.0x 16% 1.14xUTX United Technologies Corporation $88.07 $80.7 14.6x 15% 0.95xEBAY eBay Ord Shs $53.38 $69.1 19.4x 17% 1.17xAMGN Amgen Inc. $83.07 $63.7 11.9x 16% 0.76xGILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. $76.84 $58.2 17.6x 30% 0.58xBMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Co $34.90 $57.6 19.1x 20% 0.96xBA Boeing Company (The) Common Sto $74.40 $56.0 14.4x 23% 0.63xF Ford Motor Company Common Stock $13.80 $51.9 9.5x 25% 0.38xTWX Time Warner Inc. New Common Sto $50.82 $48.1 13.9x 16% 0.88xMS Morgan Stanley Common Stock $22.44 $44.8 11.2x 20% 0.57xESRX Express Scripts, Inc. $53.80 $43.9 12.8x 17% 0.77xLOW Low e's Companies, Inc. Common S $37.88 $42.6 22.0x 21% 1.05xNWSA New s Corporation $27.41 $42.4 16.2x 17% 0.95xCELG Celgene Corporation $98.22 $41.5 17.5x 20% 0.87xDOW Dow Chemical Company (The) Comm $34.08 $40.9 14.2x 25% 0.56xSBUX Starbucks Corporation $54.46 $40.5 25.3x 22% 1.17xAPC Anadarko Petroleum Corporation $78.79 $39.4 19.5x 28% 0.71xTXN Texas Instruments Incorporated $33.08 $37.1 18.5x 22% 0.84xHAL Halliburton Company Common Stoc $37.88 $35.1 12.8x 32% 0.40xBIIB Biogen Idec Inc $143.55 $34.0 19.7x 22% 0.90xEOG EOG Resources, Inc. Common Stoc $124.75 $33.8 19.6x 30% 0.65xPCLN priceline.com Incorporated $672.26 $33.5 18.0x 18% 0.99xDTV DIRECTV $53.13 $32.1 10.3x 17% 0.59xFDX FedEx Corporation Common Stock $99.64 $31.3 15.7x 23% 0.67xAMT American Tow er Corporation Comm $78.97 $31.2 37.1x 22% 1.67xTWC Time Warner Cable Inc Common St $100.42 $30.3 14.6x 21% 0.70xYUM Yum! Brands, Inc. $66.10 $29.9 18.4x 16% 1.18xPCP Precision Castparts Corporation $186.28 $27.1 18.8x 20% 0.96xETN Eaton Corporation Common Stock $56.56 $26.3 12.8x 17% 0.74xAverage 20.7x 24% 0.8xMedian 16.2x 20% 0.8x

V Visa Inc. $159.05 $85.17 21.9x 16% 1.39xMA Mastercard $517.41 $61.73 20.2x 19% 1.05x

Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc.

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Public Companies Mentioned (closing Prices 1/25/13)

Company Ticker Rating Price Price TargetVisa V NEUTRAL $159.84 $145MasterCard MA NEUTRAL $519.42 $460

Analyst Certification I, Gil Luria, Aaron Turner, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal opinion and that I have not and will not, directly or indirectly, receive compensation or other payments in connection with my specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Disclosure information regarding historical ratings and price targets is available at http://www.wedbush.com/ResearchDisclosure/DisclosureQ412.pdf Investment Rating System: Outperform: Expect the total return of the stock to outperform relative to the median total return of the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team) coverage universe over the next 6-12 months. Neutral: Expect the total return of the stock to perform in-line with the median total return of the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team) coverage universe over the next 6-12 months. Underperform: Expect the total return of the stock to underperform relative to the median total return of the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team) coverage universe over the next 6-12 months. The Investment Ratings are based on the expected performance of a stock (based on anticipated total return to price target) relative to the other stocks in the analyst’s coverage universe (or the analyst’s team coverage).* Rating Distribution (as of December 31, 2012)

Investment Banking Relationships (as of December 31, 2012)

Outperform:53% Neutral: 42% Underperform: 5%

Outperform:14% Neutral: 2% Underperform: 0%

The Distribution of Ratings is required by FINRA rules; however, WS’ stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform most closely conform to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively. Please note, however, the definitions are not the same as WS’ stock ratings are on a relative basis. The analysts responsible for preparing research reports do not receive compensation based on specific investment banking activity. The analysts receive compensation that is based upon various factors including WS’ total revenues, a portion of which are generated by WS’ investment banking activities. Wedbush Equity Research Disclosures as of January 27, 2013

Company Disclosure

Visa 1 MasterCard 1

Research Disclosure Legend

1. WS makes a market in the securities of the subject company. 2. WS managed a public offering of securities within the last 12 months. 3. WS co-managed a public offering of securities within the last 12 months. 4. WS has received compensation for investment banking services within the last 12 months. 5. WS provided investment banking services within the last 12 months. 6. WS is acting as financial advisor. 7. WS expects to receive compensation for investment banking services within the next 3 months. 8. WS provided non-investment banking securities-related services within the past 12 months. 9. WS has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services within the past 12 months. 10. The research analyst, a member of the research analyst’s household, any associate of the research analyst, or any individual

directly involved in the preparation of this report has a long position in the common stocks. 11. WS or one of its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of the common equity securities. 12. The analyst maintains Contingent Value Rights that enables him/her to receive payments of cash upon the company’s meeting

certain clinical and regulatory milestones.

Price Charts Wedbush disclosure price charts are updated within the first fifteen days of each new calendar quarter per FINRA regulations. Price charts for companies initiated upon in the current quarter, and rating and target price changes occurring in the current quarter, will not be displayed until the following quarter. Additional information on recommended securities is available on request.

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* WS changed its rating system from (Strong Buy/Buy/Hold/Sell) to (Outperform/ Neutral/Underperform) on July 14, 2009. Please access the attached hyperlink for WS’ Coverage Universe: http://www.wedbush.com/services/cmg/equities-division/research/equity-research Applicable disclosure information is also available upon request by contacting Ellen Kang in the Research Department at (213) 688-4529, by email to [email protected], or the Business Conduct Department at (213) 688-8090. You may also submit a written request to the following: Business Conduct Department, 1000 Wilshire Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90017.

OTHER DISCLOSURES

RESEARCH DEPT. * (213) 688-4505 * www.wedbush.com EQUITY TRADING Los Angeles (213) 688-4470 / (800) 421-0178 * EQUITY SALES Los Angeles (800) 444-8076

CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS (213) 688-8000 The information herein is based on sources that we consider reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The information contained herein is not a representation by this corporation, nor is any recommendation made herein based on any privileged information. This information is not intended to be nor should it be relied upon as a complete record or analysis; neither is it an offer nor a solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security mentioned herein. This firm, Wedbush Securities, its officers, employees, and members of their families, or any one or more of them, and its discretionary and advisory accounts, may have a position in any security discussed herein or in related securities and may make, from time to time, purchases or sales thereof in the open market or otherwise. The information and expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without further notice. The herein mentioned securities may be sold to or bought from customers on a principal basis by this firm. Additional information with respect to the information contained herein may be obtained upon request.

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RETAIL AND CONSUMER TECHNOLOGY, INTERNET, MEDIA & SOCIAL MEDIA LIFE SCIENCES

Consumer Products Communications Equipment Biotechnology/Biopharmaceuticals/BioDefenseRommel T. Dionisio (212) 938-9934 Rohit Chopra (212) 668-9871 Gregory R. Wade, Ph.D. (415) 274-6863Kurt M. Frederick, CFA CPA (415) 274-6822 Sanjit Singh (212) 938-9922 David M. Nierengarten, Ph.D. (415) 274-6862

Ryan Flanagan (212) 938-9942 Christopher N. Marai, Ph.D. (415) 274-6861Footwear, Apparel and AccessoriesCorinna Freedman (212) 668-9876 Computer Services: Financial Technology Cardiovascular, Hepatic and Devices

Gil B. Luria (213) 688-4501 Akiva Felt (415) 263-6648Healthy Lifestyles Aaron Turner (213) 688-4429Kurt M. Frederick, CFA CPA (415) 274-6822 Emerging Pharmaceuticals

Enterprise Software Liana Moussatos, Ph.D. (415) 263-6626Restaurants Steve Koenig (415) 274-6801 Richard Lau (415) 274-6851Nick Setyan (213) 688-4519 Christopher N. Marai, Ph.D. (415) 274-6861Colin Radke (213) 688-6624 Entertainment: Retail

Michael Pachter (213) 688-4474 Healthcare Services - Managed CareSpecialty Retail: Hardlines Nick McKay (213) 688-4343 Sarah James (213) 688-4503Joan L. Storms, CFA (213) 688-4537 Alicia Reese (212) 938-9927 Daniel Patt (212) 938-9937John Garrett, CFA (213) 688-4523

Entertainment: Software Medical Diagnostics and Life Sciences ToolsSpecialty Retail: Softlines Michael Pachter (213) 688-4474 Zarak Khurshid (415) 274-6823Betty Chen (415) 273-7328 Nick McKay (213) 688-4343Alex Pham (415) 273-7315

Internet and E-CommerceRETAIL/CONSUMER MARKET RESEARCH Michael Pachter (213) 688-4474

Nick McKay (213) 688-4343Gabriella Santaniello (213) 688-4557 Alicia Reese (212) 938-9927

INDUSTRIAL GROWTH TECHNOLOGY MediaJames Dix, CFA (213) 688-4315

Clean Technology Alicia Reese (212) 938-9927Craig Irwin (212) 938-9926

Movies and EntertainmentEnvironmental Services Michael Pachter (213) 688-4474Al Kaschalk (213) 688-4539 Nick McKay (213) 688-4343

Alicia Reese (212) 938-9927Industrial BiotechnologyLiana Moussatos, Ph.D. (415) 263-6626 SemiconductorsChristopher N. Marai, Ph.D. (415) 274-6861 Betsy Van Hees (415) 274-6869

Ryan Jue, CFA (415) 263-6669Water and Renewable Energy SolutionsDavid Rose, CFA (213) 688-4319

MANAGER, RESEARCH OPERATIONSEllen Kang (213) 688-4529

EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT(213) 688-4529

DIRECTOR OF RESEARCHMark D. Benson (213) 688-4435

EQUITY SALES EQUITY TRADINGLos Angeles (213) 688-4470 / (800) 444-8076 Los Angeles (213) 688-4470 / (800) 421-0178San Francisco (415) 274-6800 San Francisco (415) 274-6811New York (212) 938-9931 New York (212) 344-2382Boston (617) 832-3700 Boston (617) 832-3700

CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS1000 Wilshire Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90017-2465

Tel: (213) 688-8000 www.wedbush.com