computing and the future of the planet

Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad TaylorComputing and the Future of the Planet

Demon or

Deus ex machina?

a talk by Conrad Taylor

Computing and the future of the planet: Demon or Deus ex machina? — Conrad Taylor

Burning fossil fuels

Carbon Dioxide

‘Greenhouse Effect’

Global Warming


Burning fossil fuels

Carbon Dioxide

‘Greenhouse Effect’

Global Warming

Computing currently 3%–5%of all human use of energy…about the same as aviation


The bigger picture…How computing can HARMthe planet

How computing can HEALthe planet

How computing can HELPus understand the planet


On average,about

of the energy involved in a computer’s life cycle goes in resource extraction, manufacture and disposal


National carbon footprint calculation…doesn’t include carbon cost of manufacturing imports

…doesn’t include carbon costs of transporting imports


BBC News5 August 2008


Apple Macintosh iBook G3purchased 2002died 2008


Professor Andy Hopper CBE FREng FRS

“Computing for the Future of the Planet”

On IET.tv: http://tv.theiet.org/technology/infopro/910.cfm


ThinClient

ThinClient

ThinClient

CentralisedComputation

andData StoreAndy Hopper suggests abolishing the Workstation

in favour of thin-client access to computer resources


Disklessworkstation

Disklessworkstation

Disklessworkstation

IBM Blades

Orwell High School, Felixstowe, Suffolk

Workstations boot Linux Terminal Server ◆◆

from IBM Blade servers

KDE desktop, Open Source apps◆◆

Windows apps (e.g. Visual Basic) ◆◆

supported by Microsoft Terminal Server


Evolution of the ‘End User Device’Convergence of computers and mobile phones◆◆

Flash memory replacing hard drives◆◆

Developments in battery & fuel cell technology◆◆

direct methanol fuel cell …

direct formic acid fuel cell …

Formica rufa


Evolution of the ‘End User Device’Convergence of computers and mobile phones◆◆

Flash memory replacing hard drives◆◆

Developments in battery & fuel cell technology◆◆

Hybrid systems e.g. Dell Latitude E3400◆◆

Pre-boot environment built on DeviceVM’s Splashtop …

a Linux stack with Firefox for Web access + Skype …

or continue to boot into full Windows Vista …


Picasa album photo by ‘howard’

Mary Lou JepsenLed the design of the XO laptop◆◆

Focus on redesign of display◆◆

Energy-saving electronics◆◆


sensing and monitoring

environmental data collection

modelling and prediction


Over time, average temperatures have fluctutated

Figure prepared by Robert A Rohde for Global Warming Art.

Overlay of the published reconstructions: most recent at red and in foreground, older ones in blue


Permian–Triassic Extinction event, 251.4 MY BP – a global warming catastrophe

96% of all marine species◆◆

70% of all land vertebrates◆◆

Map of Late Permian (260 MY BP) prepared by Dr Ron Blakey

‘Siberian Traps’ basalt eruptions


Permian–Triassic Extinction eventVolcanic eruptions ◆◆ CO₂ outgassing

Coal, carbonate rocks ◆◆ more CO₂

Release of methane clathrates ◆◆ CH₄

◆◆ ‘Runaway Greenhouse Effect’

Temperature rise ≈ 6˚C at equator, ◆◆

higher towards poles


Permian–Triassic Extinction eventAnoxic conditions in the oceans: ◆◆

mass die-off of marine biota


Permian–Triassic Extinction eventAnoxic conditions in the oceans: ◆◆

mass die-off of marine biota

Oceans dominated by ◆◆ Chlorobiaceæ: anaerobic green sulphur bacteria

Poisonous emissions of hydrogen sulphide gas ◆◆

leading to further extinctions

Ozone layer depleted ◆◆ UV radiation


Marine phytoplankton such as these Antarctic diatoms are responsible for half of the photosynthesis on the planet, converting CO2 and renewing our oxygen supply.

Photo by Professor Gordon Taylor


Antarctic Krill, Euphausia superba

Potential zone where iron seeding may increase phytoplankton blooming and carbon sequestration


Jason-2 satellitemicrowave altimeter◆◆

Sea-Level Anomalies in centimetres


ICESat

LIDAR: laser rangefinder

monitors the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets


The Argo probes


The Argos SystemAmerican–French collaboration◆◆

Data-collection satellites on a polar orbit◆◆

Numerous uses:◆◆

meteorological and oceanographic data …

tracking tagged birds and animals as they migrate …

monitoring water levels, water quality …

ShipLoc maritime security (anti-piracy) …

collecting medical data from Argos public health terminals …


Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)QinitiQ Zephyr: high-altitude, long-endurance

lithium-sulphur cells recharged by solar power


Software and StandardsInstrument operation, mission control, ◆◆

telemetry, data processing, visualisation

GEOSS: Global Earth Observation System of Systems◆◆

74 countries, 51 international organisations, …sharing earth observation data

public data standards and interoperability are key …

worldwide data sharing via Internet and satellite …


Computation and Climate Modelling

Mathematical techniques pioneered ◆◆

by Lewis Fry Richardson

Atmosphere modelled as an array ◆◆

of interacting cells

Differential equations model the ◆◆

fluid dynamic changes for each cell

Iterations take account of each cell’s ◆◆

effect on its neighbours

Lewis Fry Richardson1881–1953


Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Atmosphere General Circulation Model, AGCM◆◆

Ocean General Circulation Model, OGCM◆◆

Carbon Cycle Model◆◆

Atmospheric Chemistry Model◆◆


HadCM3 – Hadley Climate Model 3Integrates Atmosphere General Circulation Model ◆◆

with Ocean General Circulation Model

Includes atmospheric chemistry and ocean ◆◆

thermohaline circulation


Climate modelling is controversial!Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: ◆◆

wide variation in predictions from different climate prediction models


serious hardware for hadley centre


Board mounted with two PowerXCell 8i chips

Roadrunner supercomputer at Los Alamos Laboratories


machine sensing

plus automationpower use optimisation …

aligning solar arrays, shades, daylighting systems …

“intelligent buildings” …

managing drip-feed irrigation systems …

? …

How computers can help the environment


Toyota Prius — Hybrid Synergy Drive


human decision support with machine-provided information

weather forecasting …

predicting and coping with …extreme weather events

transport and logistics management …

? …



with digital alternatives to consuming & moving physical assets



‘Move bits, not atoms’

virtualisation of the workplace

3-way skype conference call


www.slideshare.net

www.iet.tv

virtual meeting presence


Thanks for listening

Email: [email protected]

Blog: http://conradiator.wordpress.com

computing and the future of the planet

Technology