concept & techniques for grassroot lng plant cost optimization - lng13 paper

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CONCEPT & TECHNIQUES FOR GRASSROOT LNG PLANT COST OPTIMIZATION Yoga P. Suprapto Engineering Manager -Tangguh LNG Project PERTAMINA Paper presented at the LNG - 13 Conference May 2000, Seoul South Korea

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Concept & Techniques for Grassroot LNG Plant Cost Optimization - LNG13 Paper

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Page 1: Concept & Techniques for Grassroot LNG Plant Cost Optimization - LNG13 Paper

CONCEPT & TECHNIQUES FOR GRASSROOT LNG

PLANT COST OPTIMIZATION

Yoga P. Suprapto

Engineering Manager -Tangguh LNG Project

PERTAMINA

Paper presented at the LNG - 13 Conference

May 2000, Seoul – South Korea

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Abstract

How Grassroots LNG Plant Can Compete With Expansion Project Cost

Screening of LNG Liquefaction Process Technology

Contract Management of Front End Engineering Work for Multiple

Technology Competition

Case Discussion for Tangguh LNG Project

As the Asia Pacific LNG market experiences a sluggish demand in the last 5

years, the competition to find a niche market between LNG projects are getting

tighter and tighter. The new grassroots LNG projects are facing their biggest

challenge for survival unless they can compete head to head with the expansion

project, something that is not easily achieved due to the significant difference in

the project scope.

The changing supply demand balance of the Asia Pacific LNG forced the LNG

producer revisited the basic concept the way a LNG project is being developed.

This paper describes and analyzes the critical change drivers of the business in

order to appropriately address the best strategy to compete.

In the next section, this paper discuss how to put the cost optimization merits to

works in the real world in a grassroots LNG project, which include the

implementation of Multiple technology Front End Engineering Design

competition.

Further discussion focus on the implementation of Multiple FEED execution,

technology screening, and risk management and project coordination. Then, a

detailed discussion on the execution procedures follows, how a Multiple FEED

procedures and evaluation criteria should be properly designed to maintain fair

and equal competition between FEED Contractors. As an example, the Tangguh

LNG project Multiple FEED execution is used as the basis of case discussion.

A grassroots LNG project does have some inherent cost optimization merits,

which an expansion project does not always have. This paper analyzes the project

cost factors and identifies which are the cost optimization merits for a grassroots

LNG project.

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LES CONCEPTS & TECHNIQUES POUR OPTIMISATION

DES COUTS D‟UNE USINE DE GNL “GRASSROOT”

Yoga P. Suprapto

Engineering Manager – Tangguh LNG Project

Presentation pour la conference GNL 13

14 – 17 Mai, 2001, Seoul, Koree

Resume

Comment une unite de GNL “grassroots” peut elle etre competitive avec un projet

d‟extension.

Revue des technologies de procedes de liquefaction de GNL.

Comment specifier des conceptions competitives, niveau de detail et criteres d‟evaluation des

offres pour optimiser le cout du projet.

Discussion sur le projet GNL Tangguh.

A un moment ou le marche du GNL en Asie-Pacifique fait face y une demande lethargique depuis

cinq ans, la competition pour trouver une niche de marche entre les projets de GNL est de plus en

plus serree. Les nouveaux projets “grassroot” de GNL font face y leur plus grand defi pour

survivre, excepte s‟ils peuvent etre competitifs avec les projets d‟extension, ce n‟est pas facile y

realiser compte tenu de la difference significative des cahiers des charges.

Le changement de la balance de la production et de la demande de GNL en Asie- Pacifique force

les producteurs de GNL au revoir le concept de base et la maniere dont le projet de GNL est

developpe. Ce papier decrit et analyse les moteurs de changement critique de l„industrie pour

adresser correctement la meilleure strategie pour etre competitif.

La section suivante de ce papier discute les merites d‟optimisation des couts d‟un projet de GNL

en “grassroot”, qui inclut la mise en ouvre d‟etudes preliminaires qui mettent en comptition

plusieurs technologies et conceptions. (Multiple technology Front End Engineering Design

competition).

La suite de la discussion vise la realisation de plusieurs etudes preliminaires (Multiple FEED),

comparaison technologique, analyse des risques et coordination du projet. En suite il y aura une

discussion sur les procedures d‟execution, dans le cas d‟un “Mutiple FEED”, quelles procedures

et criteres d‟evaluation doivent etre elabores pour maintenir une juste et egale competition entre

les contracteurs pour un “FEED”. Comme exemple de “Mutiple FEED execution” le projet de

GNL Tangguh est utilise comme base de discussion.

Un projet de GNL “grassroot” contient des zones d‟optimisation de cout qu‟un projet d‟extension

n‟a pas toujours. Ce papier analyse les facteurs de cout du projet et identifie les avantages

d‟optimisation des couts d‟un projet de GNL “grassroot”.

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I. Introduction.

Asia Pacific without any doubt has been the center of the world LNG industry for

the last 30 years. Japan, Korea and Taiwan are the main LNG importer with

Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia and Brunei among others are the major LNG

supplier in the region. In the last decade, Qatar and Oman entered the prestigious

LNG Club and in the near future Yemen will join the club. Some other countries

have been trying hard to develop LNG project as the outlet of their large gas

finding but without much success, mainly due to the marginal project economics.

Even major LNG players such as Indonesia and Australia have not been very

successful in developing a new grassroots LNG project, such as Indonesia Natuna

and Australia Gorgon. On the other hand, the existing LNG Plants have been

continuously expanded which give a clear indication that despite the impact of the

recent economic turmoil in the region, there is some niche market that can always

be developed. The new Middle East LNG producers, especially Qatar is of

different case. Their huge gas reserve, the proximity of the gas reserve, and the

gas quality have made the development cost become quite competitive even with

the existing South East Asia LNG expansion project which have a comparative

shipping distance advantage and a competitive low capital for expansion.

As ia Pa ci fic L NG Su pp ly & D em an d Fo re ca st

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L O W D E M A N D F O R E C A S T

H I G H DE M A N D F O R E C A S T

L N G S U P P L Y F O R E C A S T

Figure - 1

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However, beside the issue of grassroots versus expansion competition, there is a

more fundamental issue in the current Asia Pacific LNG competition that is a

clear shift of the supply demand balance in the last decade. From the existing

plant in operation alone, there is at least 10 million-ton/annum excess LNG

production. LNG analyst believe that the situation is not going to be better in the

next 5 year and probably will approaching its supply demand balance later than

the year 2010. Some LNG producers have decided to implement a pre-emptive

marketing strategy by construction of a LNG Plant even before all of the design

capacity is committed. A new project financing strategy is required for this kind

of marketing scheme.

The fierce competition between LNG producing countries, or between projects in

a producing country, have forced Seller and the Buyer parties constantly revisited

the term and condition of a LNG Sales Agreement. A shorter LNG commitment is

not a new issue anymore, and some LNG producers offer a full business chain

development up to the power plant gate. China and India enter the LNG importer

club at this favorable time for LNG Buyers, with additional advantage of not

being severely impacted by the Asian economic crisis. While Indian LNG market

is more or less confined to the Middle East LNG producers, China LNG market is

more open for competition.

Notwithstanding with the importance of competitive LNG Sales contract terms

and comparative advantage of shipping distance, the question that is very

intriguing to be explored is: why some LNG producing countries still pursuing a

grassroots LNG project for a market before the year 2010? Will a 1-train

grassroots LNG plant be competitive with an expansion project? How to manage

the project cost competition while satisfying Buyer and Project Financier

investment risk. The Indonesia‟s Tangguh LNG Project will be used as a case

study for this discussion of optimization of grassroots LNG Plant cost.

It is worth to note that the whatever strategy a LNG producer is taking, the final

objective of a LNG project is to secure LNG Sales Agreement and the Project

Financing Agreement therefore LNG Buyers and Project Financier interest and

concern must become the underlying framework in every strategy discussion.

II. Change Drivers of Asia-Pacific LNG Industry

No LNG project are alike, uniqueness of each business chain contribute to a

complex factors of a LNG Project cost structure. Benchmarking of LNG Project

Cost must be done cautiously and sometime has misled Project Owner or their

Audit Team. However, at the end of the day what really matters to the LNG

Buyer and Project Financier is the Cost of Service of the LNG as received by the

Buyers at their gate or unloading flange. The cost of service gives a simplified

indication of LNG Project strength to return a capital investment. Low cost of

service is a warranty that a project is not only economically attractive but also

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more importantly it will make the project more resilient to any fluctuation in any

of the economics parameter. A very important issue for a long term „take or pay‟

LNG Sales Contract. However, higher cost of service does not necessarily means

the LNG Buyers or Project Financiers will not select that particular LNG project.

If the LNG producer is willing to absorb or share the impact of economics

fluctuation from their revenue then a LNG project with higher cost of service may

still be materialized.

The graph below showed a typical variation of cost of service of LNG in the Asia

Pacific region.

LNG cost of service will very much depend on the cost share of each business

element, starting from the upstream development, the LNG Plant, the LNG

transportation and the receiving & regasification terminal.

A typical cost share for each LNG business chain is as follows:

(1) Upstream Development 10%

(2) LNG Plant 40%

(3) LNG Transportation 30%

(4) Receiving & Regasification Terminal 20%

C os t o f S e r v ic e E x -s h ip To k y o H a r b ou r

0

0.5

1

1.5

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$/M M B tu$/BBL Oil Equivalent

29 $/BBL

25 $/BBL

20 $/BBL

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5 $/BBL

G R A S S R O O TSE X P A NS IO N

Figure - 2 Typical LNG Cost of Service

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In analyzing the potential cost optimization of a LNG project, one must consider

characteristic of each business chain in order to achieve the highest cost impact

items without sacrificing the basic safety, reliability and operability of the whole

system. Methods on Value Engineering are widely used for these purposes.

The cost of the upstream facilities is very much determined by the nature of the

gas reserve, such as the location of the reserve, the depth, and the gas quality, the

size and distances between reserves to the selected gathering station. In some

cases where the gas quality requires reinjection of CO2 to an underground

reservoir, the upstream development cost can become prohibitively high. Typical

process design for upstream facilities is not as complicated as the LNG plant,

unless a large CO2 or sulfur removal unit is required by the process design then it

may become a major cost item. Cost optimization may include a decision to

relocate some facilities from offshore to onshore at the expense of higher pipeline

cost or selection of multiphase single pipeline instead of single phase multiple

pipelines.

The LNG plant is a major cost item in a LNG business chain; its sophisticated

system has become the focus of cost optimization in recent LNG projects. Prior to

the recent cost reduction effort, the LNG plant cost level reflect the characteristic

of the LNG business during the initial stage of the Asia Pacific LNG trades back

in the 70‟s. The oil crisis has forced the Japanese energy users to secure a long

term and reliable energy supply as an alternative to oil. The keyword is security of

supply, safe and reliable LNG plant operation. This leads to conservatism in the

system design and project specification. For better or for worse, the design

philosophy had met its objectives and satisfies the LNG Buyers needs. Many of

plants achieve availability factor as high as 97%, an impressive record compare to

a typical refinery or gas plants. In other plants, the capacity had been

debottlenecked up to 30 – 40% higher than its name plate capacity. Both the LNG

Producers and Buyers had enjoyed this „cheap‟ cost of service of the LNG

produced by the plant capacity improvement or debottlenecking project.

Moreover, at that time, the market absorbed almost all of the excess capacity. The

demand of LNG also has pushed the capacity of the plant to the limit of available

process and rotating equipment technology. The design capacity of a LNG train

has quadruple within 30 years, as shown in Figure 3, below:

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As the LNG train size getting larger, we should expect that the specific costs of a

LNG project will tend to be lower and lower. However, as shown by the cost

trend chart below, that is not the general trend.

L N G Pla nt C ap ital - 1 9 98 U S $/T PA Gra ssro ot Pro ject

Ye ar of S ta rtup

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COST TARGE T OF NEW PROJ ECTS

Figure 4 - Trend of Grassroot LNG Plant Specific Cost

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Figure 3 - Grassroot LNG Plant Cost Trend

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But not until the late 90‟s that the LNG plant cost become the attention of the

industry players, triggered by the LNG Buyers concern on the cost of service of

LNG as a result of extrapolation of the 70‟s LNG price structure. A structure that

was developed post oil crisis that consider LNG as a „premium‟ fuel, which

secure a long term reliable supply of an environmentally friendly energy. While

the premium attribute is still considered valid, especially from the environmental

point of view, the attribute on security of supply is being questioned more and

more frequently. The spring of new LNG producers and the never-ending

expansion of the existing LNG plants have made LNG slowly shift from a

premium fuel towards a fuel commodity. As in any other commodity trading, the

name of the game is product price differentiation, which is in this case, is the cost

of service of the whole LNG chain. Eventhough in some case quality

differentiation strategy such as providing an integrated energy supply up to the

customers gate may very well fit some customer needs.

Nowadays, the LNG Buyers will certainly give more attention to a LNG projects

that can offer lower LNG cost of service, shorter contract period, at smaller

contract quantity, attractive price structure and more flexible Sales Agreement

terms and conditions. However, without sacrificing the industry safety and

reliability standard as well as the selection of a reputable EPC Contractor to

ensure timely production of the constructed plant.

The changing balance of LNG supply and demand is one of the most important

driver for cost optimization. However, it is the extreme down fall of world oil

price in 1997/1998 which triggered owner to ensure that the cash flow of a LNG

project stay in the healthy side of the project economics. Eventhough the low oil

price affected the economics of all LNG projects, but the grassroots project

economics got the worst impact.

In the current LNG business environment, where the LNG supply is well in

excess of the demand, the LNG Buyers investment risk is in fact getting better by

the availability of alternate sources. More spot LNG sales is a clear indication that

alternative LNG is available in the open market.

Therefore, from the project economics perspective, the LNG project financiers

will face higher investment risk than ever before. Especially if the major portion

of the project is funded through non-recourse project financing. On the other

hand, in the case of equity financing, the burden shift to the Owner sides. Shorter

contract period at a smaller contract quantity work against the project economics,

above it all relaxation of the „take or pay‟ clause is a killer for the project

economics.

All this will make the project financiers execute a more stringent due diligent on

the project economics, the feasibility of the design and the technology used, the

EPC Contractor performance (technical and financial), political stability in the

producing country as well as the financial capability of the LNG Buyers. At the

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end of the day, the project financier‟s assessment will be reflected in financing

cost of the project.

All of the above change drivers set a perfect framework for the LNG industry that

a LNG project cost optimization is mandatory for the survival of many LNG

projects and the grassroots project has the highest priority to do so.

III. Cost Optimization Merits in a Grassroots and Expansion LNG Projects

Why a grassroots project? Some owners or producing countries have an option

either to build a grassroots plant or to expand the existing LNG plant. Beside the

project economics there are other consideration that a project owner, a producing

country or in some cases the LNG Buyers and the project financier will promote a

grassroots LNG project instead of an expansion project.

In a country like Indonesia where the state oil company are the single LNG Seller

and where the substantial gas findings are in distance apart, the development of

multiple LNG center will add strength to the security and reliability of supply

aspect. Any production and shipping problem can be conveniently covered by the

other LNG center, which ensure reliable supply to the Buyers and predictable

revenue to the Seller.

For the project financier multiple LNG center of a single Seller will dissipate the

risk of the investment as well as reducing the risk impact on the existing LNG

plant investment if portion of the existing plant is financed by different investor.

The next question will be can a grassroots LNG plant project compete with

expansion projects. There are several factors to be considered before we can

appropriately address this issue. It is generally accepted that a grassroots plant

will never be able to compete with an expansion project. However, since the LNG

cost of service and the LNG sales price are two different things, it is possible that

a project Owner offer a competitive LNG sales price even if the cost of service is

higher, such as for a grassroots plant. In this case, the project Owner is accepting

less revenue margin.

From a technical point of view, several factors may work in favor of a grassroots

LNG plant. The nature of the gas reserve may become the significant advantage

for a grassroots LNG plant, such as the proximity of the gas reserve, access to

deep sea waters, the depth of the reserve as well as the quality of the gas itself.

The existing LNG plant also impose an inherent disadvantage for the cost

optimization of the expansion project. Because of its modular train concept,

safety, operability and maintainability consideration, cause the expansion project

usually a mere duplicate of the existing trains. While this will reduce the design

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and operating cost, a duplicate design will limit the possibility of other potential

cost optimization for an expansion project as follows:

Duplicate capacity causes an expansion train could not enjoy the

economic of scale advantage of a larger train design.

For an expansion project done long after the first train, duplicate

design may find that some equipment or spare parts has become

obsolete and costly.

Duplicate design will limit the EPC Contractor opportunity for a

competitive bidding of each equipment and therefore reduce the

possibility for an optimized project cost.

Duplicate design will limit the opportunity for cost optimization

through latest technology development such as in advanced process

control; computer aided production as well as the newest application

of higher efficiency equipment and material.

Duplicate design may require a design retrofit to comply with the

latest environmental specification, which will be more efficiently done

in a grassroots design.

Figure 5 – Project Cost Optimization Opportunity

On the other hand, an expansion project does not require a new set of full-scale

infrastructures, LNG harbor and utilities, which is a major cost item for a project.

An expansion project with a duplicate design also could not easily enjoy the

opportunity of multiple technology competitive bidding as in a grassroots project.

All of the existing LNG plants have selected the same LNG liquefaction

technology for their expansion project. However, this concept is currently being

questioned by several Owners and a multiple technology trains in a single plant is

not an impossible concept to implement.

Also, a grassroots plant enjoy the possibility for a „fit for purpose‟ design with a

pre-set cost objective which can be determined to meet or exceed the cost

advantage of an expansion project. The following chart shows an estimated

project cost comparison of grassroots and expansion LNG projects.

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Therefore, competitiveness of a grassroots plant versus an expansion project

should be analyzed on a case by case basis and could not be simplistically

generalized. In fact, a recent grassroots LNG plant had successfully prove that a

grassroots plant can be constructed at a competitive cost compare to a typical

expansion project.

IV. Making Competition At Work for a Grassroots LNG Project Cost

Optimization

For many years, the practice in the LNG industry has been a competition in the

EPC (Construction) work. Project Owner pre-selected the main technology, which

include the LNG Liquefaction technology and the Process Driver technology.

Those are the technologies not much dependent on the feed gas composition or

other site-specific condition. In the Asia-Pacific region, the Propane Pre-cooled

Mixed Refrigerant LNG Liquefaction technology has led the market share. It has

a proven track record on safety and reliability, which was and is still the main

consideration of the Asia Pacific LNG Buyers. One LNG plant employs a

Cascade Refrigeration LNG Liquefaction technology, which has equal safety and

reliability records.

In line with the rapid growth of LNG market in Asia-Pacific in the 70‟s and 80‟s,

larger and larger plant capacity becoming a necessity to fulfill the economic of

scale. The process efficiency and the manufacturing flexibility of the main

equipment to match the higher plant capacity, makes the Propane Pre-cooled MR

the technology of choice in that booming LNG era. The demand for a larger LNG

plant also matched by the development of larger gas turbine technology, which

makes the gas turbine the technology of choice for the process system driver.

Despite the booming of the LNG market, it is quite surprising that the other LNG

O p t im iza t io n O p o rtu n ity - G ra s sro o ts & E x p a n s io n

L N G P ro je ct , 1 T ra in , 3 m m T p a

Gra ssro ots -Ba se Gra ssro ots - Optim ize d Expa nsion - Ba se Expa nsion - Optim ize d

Pr

oje

ct

Co

st

Liq u e fac t io n U t ilitie s

S & L M arine

In fra s tru c t ure EP C

Figure 5 - Optimization Opportunity of Grassroot & Expansion Project

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Liquefaction technology developer did not make significant attempt to advance

their technology for the large capacity LNG plant.

Not until recently that the other LNG Liquefaction, technology developer start to

realize that the LNG market seem to offer enough rooms for more than one

player. As has been described earlier, the key issue in the year 2000 era is a low

cost LNG plant, something that the previous LNG project which happen to apply

the Propane Pre-cooled MR, seem fail to address. Even for a larger capacity,

which could have improved the economic of scale, as shown in Figure 4?

LNG analysts have different assessment as to whether it is the LNG Liquefaction

technology or the other aspect of the plant design is the main factor for the high

LNG cost.

At the LNG 12 Conference in 1997, Shell presented a benchmarking study of

various LNG Liquefaction technologies. The study evaluated 3 LNG Liquefaction

technology which are currently being used in various LNG plant, i.e. the Single

Mixed Refrigerant; the Propane Pre-cooled Mixed Refrigerant and the Cascade

Refrigerant technologies, plus the other 2 newer technology which is the Dual

Mixed Refrigerant and the Nitrogen cycle technologies. The study concluded that

the LNG Liquefaction technology contributed only less than 3% to the specific

cost of a grassroots LNG plant. An excerpt of the study is presented in the table

below.

C3/MR Cascade SMR C3/MR SMR

Specific Power, kW/tpd 12.2 14.1 14.5 15.3 17.0

Fuel Efficiency, % 92.9 91.2 91.6 90.8 90.0

Indexed Capex 100 119 97 100 97

Plant Availability, sd/a 340 336 338 342 340

Indexed Specific Cost 100 143 103 100 101

Figure 6 - Benchmarking of LNG Liquefaction Technologies

Shell Study - 1998 Pertamina 1999

A similar study was done by PERTAMINA confirmed that the different in

specific cost between the Propane Pre-cooled MR and the Single MR

technologies are not more than 1% for the overall LNG project scope.

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However, it will be a misleading conclusion to say that the LNG Liquefaction

technology does not have a significant impact on the real-world LNG project cost

competition. As in any hypothetical study, the result of a study valid only if the

assumption used in the study is still being maintained in the real world. The

assumption are, but not limited to the following:

The same design philosophy, sizing criteria and project specification

are consistently applied for the evaluated technologies

A proven and perfect match of the process driver is available for each

of the technology

A proven and perfect match of main process equipment is available for

each of the technology.

The other process system such as the Acid Gas Removal; the cooling

medium; the heating medium, storage & harbor system are using the

same technology.

No consideration for the additional cost required to compensate

discrepancies on operational and maintenance features of each

technology, such as control or safety system complication

No consideration for the EPC competitiveness impact on cost such as

procurement efficiency and construction efficiency

No consideration or the EPC Contractor bidding strategy impact on

cost

Therefore, in the evaluation of the real world LNG project cost competition, it is

more important to put attention on assumptions and what is not considered in a

hypothetical studies than the hard number conclusion of the studies itself.

The only way to verify the assumption is by executing a Multiple technology

Front End Engineering Design. However, multiple FEED is not cheap and simple

to manage, requires not only technically competent Owner‟s project team but also

require a unique project management plan and control.

It is therefore very important that the selection of the LNG technology to be

involved in a Multiple FEED competition shall be put under the frame work of the

final project objective, that is to secure LNG Sales Contract and Financing

Agreement.

As has been discussed in the earlier section, with shorter contract term and

smaller quantity commitment the risk of a new LNG project lies more on the

project financier rather than on the LNG Buyers side. Therefore, unless a

technology has a clear technical and cost competitiveness that can be justified

later in front of the project financier and Buyer it would not be wise to carry out a

Multiple FEED.

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However, the problem is, the clear technical and cost competitiveness of a

technology can only be verified after the FEED. Unfortunately, even a FEED

cannot be used to verify the cost impact of EPC Contractor‟s procurement and

construction efficiency, and/or bidding strategy which will only be known after

the EPC work bids.

Requesting project financier and/or Buyer opinion prior to execution of Multiple

FEED is not a common practice since what their concern is not how a project

Owner implement the FEED but what is the outcome of the FEED work for the

proposed project and proposed financial plan. In the current LNG producer

competition, a project financier or a LNG Buyer will not have a difficulty to find

alternative LNG project, which fit their requirement or risk criteria.

Justification to include a technology in a Multiple FEED remains in the project

owner‟s hand, and can be addressed by one of the following strategy:

Include only the technology which have been well accepted by the

LNG project financier or Buyers in the region

Include as many viable technology as the FEED cost can be justified

and make decision after the EPC bids is received, evaluated and

offered to the LNG market.

Execution of a Multiple FEED is indeed a unique and challenging undertaking,

the LNG industry is yet to learn the whole process, the constraint and the

complication of doing a Multiple FEED work. However, the potential benefit is so

promising for a grassroots LNG project to simply ignore the concept. For them, it

is more a survival kits rather than great looking outfit.

V. LNG Liquefaction Technology, Is It The Real And The Only Issue On

Project Cost Competition?

As has been discussed briefly in the earlier section, the technology per se is not a

significant factor for the project cost optimization. This means, in theory the

optimization objective could still be achieved with design competition

implemented around a pre-selected LNG technology.

However, execution of a Multiple technology competition is still one of the best

practical ways to promote cost optimized LNG plant design:

Technology competition open the possibility for a performance based

design rather than a specification based design

Technology competition breaks the latent paradigm of outdated project

philosophies and promote design innovation

More Contractors and technology licensors involved, promote higher

level of competition

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In the evaluation of a multiple technology competition, there are several technical

issues that need to be addressed properly even if in the overall project cost

perspective those factors do not greatly impact the competition. Above all, the

basis of the competition shall be a technology that will really works in the real

world not in the process simulation print outs.

In principle, the nature of the LNG Liquefaction technology does not have much

rooms for efficiency difference compare to other process system such as in the oil

refineries or petrochemical industries, where an advanced catalyst can make a

significant difference in the process efficiency. Any LNG liquefaction technology

is based on a simple Carnot refrigeration cycle, which is consist of 4 basic

refrigeration steps: adiabatic compression, cooling & condensation, adiabatic

expansion and evaporation. A refrigeration cycle is a process of transferring heat

from the process side into a heat sink (air, seawater or a cooling tower system).

The process efficiency of a LNG liquefaction technology is therefore depend on

how a technology can closely fit the Carnot cycle, which is the ideal cycle (100%

efficiency). The technology developer approaches the idealistic Carnot cycle

curve in different ways, each with it‟s own merits and constraints:

E n t rop y

Te

mp

., d

eg

.C

F eed Gas In

L NG Out

C ar n ot C yc le I d ea l W or k

F or L N G L iq u e fa ct ion

Are

a o

f P

roce

ss

I ne

ffic

i en

cy

Id eal Carn ot Cycle vs. P u re

C om p on en t R efrigeration

Co

mp

re

ssio

n

D es up er he a t in g & C o n d en sa t i o n

E v ap ora tio n

Ex

pa

nsio

n

Figure 6 – Ideal Carnot Cycle vs. Pure Component Refrigeration

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Employs a multiple refrigeration cycles.

The more the refrigeration cycles the closer it gets to the feed gas

cooling curves. In this regards, a single pure refrigerant cycle has the

lowest efficiency and the triple cascade pure refrigerant cycles give

highest efficiency. More refrigerant cycles will not result much more

process efficiency; instead it will result a diminishing economic return

due to process complication and lost of the economic of scale benefit

on equipment design.

Employs a mixed refrigerant.

If the composition selected properly, a mixed refrigerant can give a

proper fit to the feed-gas cooling curve. However, since the mixed

refrigerant does not have a distinct boiling or dew point temperature,

therefore it requires a more complex process scheme and heat

exchange equipment.

The net impact of a LNG liquefaction technology on a project cost is an

economical balance between process efficiency, number of equipment required

and it‟s best fit to the off the shelf machinery.

Project owners shall cautiously question a LNG technology that claims reduce

project cost more than 5%, simply because the LNG process thermodynamic does

not allow process efficiency improvement in that order of magnitude. If there is a

potential cost reduction as high as 20 – 30%, it must be in the other project aspect

not on the LNG process technological excellence.

Therefore, since the 20 – 30% potential cost reductions are in the other project

aspect, all LNG technology will essentially have the same opportunity to enjoy

the same cost optimization advantage. Then, whether the cost reduction potential

can be materialized or not, will remain on the innovation and excellence of the

FEED and EPC Contractors hands.

In the LNG industry, what is so called „technology competition‟ is actually a

design competition.

E n t r op y

Te

mp

.,

de

g.C

F eed Gas In

L NG Out

C ar n ot C yc l e Id e al W o r k

F or L N G L iq u e fa c tio n

Area

of

Pro

cess

Inef f

ici e

ncy

O p tim ized S in gle M ixed

R efrigera nt Pro cess

F eed Gas InC a rn o t C y c le

I de a l W o rk

F o r L N G

L iq u efa ct i o n

Are

a o

f P

ro

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ss I

ne

ffic

ien

cy

Pro pa ne Pre-co oled M ixed

R efrigera nt Pro cess

3 Sta ges Prop an e

M ix ed

R efrigera nt

-170

-130

-90

-50

-10

30

70

110

150

E n t r op y

Te

mp

.,

de

g.C

L NG Out

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VI. Building A Fair And Accountable LNG Plant Design Competition

Rule No. 1

All design must be based on a workable LNG process technology. This is the rule

no. 1 for project owner because it is also rule no. 1 for the LNG Buyer and the

project financier.

The first critical thing a project owner need to do before embarking into a LNG

design competition is to verify that the basis technology will really work in the

real world. Each owner has a different definition on what is considered a

„workable‟ technology. Some defined as a technology that has a proven operating

unit for the service and capacity in the same order of magnitude. Others apply a

limit on the scale up factor from the existing operating unit. However, to accept a

technology based on the technical simulation print out is not a recommended

approach in the LNG industry.

This rule not only to be applied for the process technology as a whole but also for

the critical equipment such as the main process driver, the refrigeration

compressor, the cryogenic exchanger, and in some cases the control scheme

around those critical equipment. Whatever definition on workable technology is

used, the point is to apply that definition consistently for all technology or design.

Rule No.2

All design must use the same design criteria. This is even a trickier rule to define

than rule no. 1. The design criteria span from a very broad and basic guideline

such as project philosophies, and sizing guidelines down to a very detailed

standards, specifications, recommended practices and even a working procedures.

Project owner shall define at which level of design criteria, a design competition

will be implemented.

C AS CA D E Pro cess

E n t rop y

Te

mp

.,

de

g.C

M E T HA N E

R E F RI G E RA T IO N

ETHYLE NE

REFRIGE RATIO N

PROP ANE

REFRIGE RA TION

Ar

ea

of P

ro

ce

ss In

effic

ien

cy

Ca

rn

ot

Cy

cle

Id

ea

l W

or

k F

or

LN

G L

iqu

efa

ctio

n

F eed Gas In

L NG Out

Figure 7, 8, 9 – LNG Processes Refrigeration Cycle Efficiency

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On a performance based design competition, the Contractors use the same project

philosophies and sizing guidelines. Owner only defines the main characteristic of

the project such the plant capacity, product quality and the plant availability

factor, then the rest of the design would be up to each Contractor. In this case,

owner must prepare to receive a design, which will not be „apple to apple‟ from

the equipment design point of view. In a performance-based design competition, a

cost reduction up to 20 –30% is not uncommon target to achieve, regardless the

technology selected as the basis of the design competition.

In a specification based design competition, the outcome of the design will looks

more „apple to apple‟, but since the Contractors do not have too much degree of

freedom to design, Owner shall be prepared to accept a cost reduction in the order

of 10 – 15% only. In the LNG industry, it is advisable that owner at least define

the safety and reliability specifications at a detailed enough level to maintain the

current proven track record of the LNG industry.

Those two basic rules set the cost optimization objective in a fair and accountable

LNG plant design competition. Furthermore, owner require to define and describe

to the Contractor the EPC bid evaluation criteria in order to maintain a fair and

accountable design competition:

If owner pre-selected the process driver and its available power, will

owner allow the Contractors to utilize the available power beyond the

plant capacity specified by owner and receive a merit score in the EPC bid

evaluation

In the case the EPC bid evaluation is done on a „life cycle cost‟ basis,

owner to define how the fuel or feed gas saving will be valued.

A „life cycle cost‟ EPC bid evaluation will also require owner to define the

value used for imported fuel, chemicals and refrigerant.

Owner is also require to define Net Discount Rate as well as the Break

Even Capex $ for every $ of Opex saving.

A clear definition of EPC bid evaluation criteria will not only ensure that the

owner will receive an EPC Bid Proposal which met the owner project objectives,

but also enable Contractor concentrate on the design competition and feel

comfortable that the EPC bid evaluation will be done fairly according to the

prescribed criteria known to the EPC Bidders and the public.

VII. Real World Dilemma In LNG Plant Multiple FEED Competition

Real World Factors in LNG Technology Competitiveness:

1. Specified LNG Plant Capacity

2. Specified Driver Type and Configuration

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3. Allowed Supplemental Driver Power

4. Value of Potential Excess LNG Capacity

5. Value of Fuel Gas

6. Feed Gas Composition

In the concept of multiple FEED competition for LNG plant cost optimization

described above, it is concluded that the LNG technology does not really have a

significant impact to the overall project cost. However, since every concept is

developed based on idealistic approach, its real world application may lead to a

completely different conclusion. One of the important factor which cause a LNG

technology may has a noticeable merit in a project cost reduction is the specified

plant capacity. Most recent LNG projects were designed based on the gas turbine

drivers fixed off the shelf available power, this constraint will cause certain

technology will enjoy an optimum driver power utilization. All available power is

used and match will Owner requirement for the specified plant capacity. For a

more fair competition, it is recommended to allow Contractor select from several

approved type of gas turbine drivers. Other way is to allow Contractor to utilize

starter/helper driver (motor or steam turbine) supplement in the gas turbine trains.

Plant capacity specification and the limitation of approved gas turbine type to be

used for the design may also impose a particular LNG technology must apply

refrigeration compressor size beyond what is considered „proven‟ by the LNG

industry. This constraint will certainly lower the technical confidence of those

particular technology and if technical confidence in this critical part of the plant

had a significant weight factor on the overall technical evaluation, a particular

technology may not become attractive to compete.

Other impact of the specified plant capacity to the competitiveness of a LNG

technology is how Owner valued the „excess‟ LNG production or limitation on

the allowed supplemental power from the helper driver. Excess LNG capacity has

no valued if the plant is under utilized. However, many LNG producers have been

successfully market their excess capacity. Some LNG plants even enjoyed a

repetitive debottlenecking projects. On the other hand, if the potential excess

capacity is valued too high, Contractor may design a high capacity plant, which

may not be actually marketable, when the plant is in operation.

The gas composition may also has considerable advantage to a particular

technology. A rich feed gas or a feed gas with adequate heavier components

content will advantage a LNG technology using all refrigerants from the available

feed gas component, while other LNG technology may need to import the

refrigerants which will require additional investment for the receiving and storage

facilities.

While some factors such as feed gas composition are beyond Owner control, other

factors can be devised to promote maximum competition on LNG technology.

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Factors on LNG Plant Design Competition:

1. Contractor competition within a particular technology

2. Definition of „Fit For Purpose‟ design

3. Level of details of design deliverables

4. Limitation on bid documents deviations, exceptions and alternatives

proposal.

5. Bidding Processes

As has been discussed earlier in the concept of fair and equal LNG Plant design

competition, it is of utmost important to apply the same principle and criteria for

all competing LNG technology and competing EPC Contractors. In other words,

ideally what left for the competition are: (a) the intrinsic characteristic of the

technology, (b) Contractors innovation in facilities design, (c) Contractor

efficiency in procurement and (d) Contractor efficiency in the construction of the

facilities.

However, strict application of the same design principle and criteria will greatly

reduced Contractors flexibility in the interpretation of the principle and criteria,

match them with their past experiences, best practices, company policy and

procedures and working environment. Each of which is unique for every

Contractor and may contribute to considerable potential cost reduction of project

cost if applied properly.

One case in point is how a process licensor market their LNG technology to the

EPC Contractors. Many of the process licensor make their technology available

for any interested Contractor, some has a closer relationship and preferences to a

particular Contractor and a process licensor may decide to have an exclusive

alliance with only one Contractor to improve their competitiveness in the LNG

industry. Exclusive alliance of a process licensor to a particular Contractor is not a

new concept in other industry such as in the oil refinery, petrochemicals and

fertilizer industries. In fact, in those industries exclusive alliance may become a

necessary business strategy to protect the intellectual property rights of the

technology. Exclusive alliance of a process licensor and a Contractor is not a

common concept in the LNG industry, until recently. LNG technology is more a

physical processes and apply very similar refrigeration principles. However, an

exclusive alliance or any close relationship of a process licensor to a Contractor

may have a considerable advantage in project cost reduction due to the potential

improvement in the working efficiency and will foster design innovations.

Alliance or not to alliance, both have their own merit and disadvantage. Exclusive

alliance will not work for single FEED concept where Owner pre-selected a LNG

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technology. The best way for Owner is to leave this business decision to the

process licensor and the EPC Contractors community. In a multiple FEED

competition, all parties have the same opportunity to win the competition and

therefore benefit Owner objective for project cost reduction. However, Owner

must be very careful in accessing the impact of exclusive alliance for the project

expansion case. In a multi trains LNG project, any technology or contractor

successfully won the initial train development will have a clear advantage over

other competing technology or contractor for the expansion project even if the

expansion project is opened for different technologies.

The EPC of a LNG project consist of approximately 10 – 15% detail engineering

cost. The contractor who won the contract for the initial project facilities will

enjoy a minimum cost for the design of the expansion project. This factor need to

be considered or incorporated in the evaluation criteria for the expansion project

to ensure that the bid processes and environment for the expansion project will

still be attractive for competing contractors and promote project cost reduction.

The other three factors in the design competition, (a) definition of the „fit for

purpose‟ design, (b) level of details of the design deliverables, and (c) limitation

on the allowed design deviation, exception or alternative proposal are interlinked.

It is not very simple to define and agree on what is considered a „fit for purposes‟

design. Figure – 10 below illustrate the basic components of a LNG plant design.

It is well understood that a project shall has a consistent project philosophies

applied in all project design basis, specification and data sheets. In the

development of project design basis, specification and data sheets, requirement

Project Strategy(Mission Statement, Project Economics, Execution Plan,

Marketing, Contracting, Organization)

Project Philosophy(Commitment statement, RFP, Basis of Design, Corporate EHS Policy, TIICS, Preinvestment)

Technology & System Industrial Standard Design Margin Life Cycle Cost

Licensor Technology,Process Scheme

API, ASME, NFPA, etc.EPC Contractor Margin

Licensor MarginOwner Margin

Capital Cost vs Operating Cost

Exi

stin

g LN

G P

lant

Prac

tice

s

Oth

er L

NG

Pla

nt

Oth

er I

ndu

stry

New

Dev

elop

ed

INNOVATION

EPC BID Alternative

OVERALL “FIT FOR PURPOSE” MATRIX

“Must and Shall” for LNG Plant

Must have for general Industry

“Should” (Optional)

EHS Aspect

EPC BID Alternative

Maintenance &Operational Aspects

Capital Cost

Operating Cost

Expected EPCCost from FEEDContractor

Figure 10

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for a very detail design deliverables is an assurance of what will be purchased,

built and constructed. Detail project description also makes the bid evaluation

much easier and accountable. On the other hand, detail description means the

qualified manufacturers, supplier or vendor list are getting narrower which will

certainly limit contractor leverage with the sub-contractor or vendors. The cost of

the project may become adversely impacted.

Therefore, the key of the issue is to find an acceptable balance between the level

of details of the design deliverables to ensure a clear main contractor commitment

to the project owner, but not to details as to limit the subsequent competition in

the sub-contractor and vendor level.

Another dilemma is how owner will evaluate or treat a non compliance bids. A

near perfect bid documents shall lead to a minimum number of clarified items,

none or minimum number of bid exception, deviation or alternative proposal.

However, the EPC contractor community does not have as high concern as the

owner side to fully comply with a bid requirement. For the contractor, an

alternative proposal may be the only way to win a bid. Therefore, it will be very

naïve to expect that all contractors will fully comply with the bid requirement. On

the other hand, if a project description and specification is to broad and give so

much freedom for an interpretation and alternatives, the bid evaluation may

become the second FEED work. Before defining what is expected, allowed or not

allowed, owner may want to explore each potential bidders intention and

interpretation of the bid documents.

Due to the complication of the multiple FEED bid processes and evaluation, it is

almost impossible to execute a multiple FEED bid processes in a single bid

proposal submittal system. Separate submittal of technical bid, followed by

clarification and revision is likely to be more manageable and ensure that all

bidders meet owner expectation on technical requirement. Submission of the

commercial proposal and the Lumpsum fixed price is then be done only if all

technical matters have been clarified. The downside of this separate submittal of

technical and commercial bid is the longer time required to reach a bid winner

decision. Here again, the key is to find a balance between the available time for

bid evaluation and a consistent „apple to apple‟ technical bid evaluation.

VIII. Contracting Strategy For A LNG Project Cost Competition

Beside a consistent design and bid evaluation criteria, a well defined contracting

strategy is another essential factor for a fair and accountable LNG plant design

competition. The contracting strategy for a Multiple technology design

competition can be either:

An integrated bidding process of FEED work and EPC work.

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In this case, the pre-qualification process is intended to qualify

Contractors for the EPC bid. The qualified EPC Bidders are also the

qualified FEED Bidders. The integrated bid process is intended to

shorten the whole bid process by eliminating the pre-qualification

phase in the EPC bid process. Owner may also apply a so-called „drip

FEED‟, in which the Contractors not winning the FEED contract will

receive the FEED deliverables, as they are available from the

Contractor executing the FEED work. By doing so, the time to prepare

the EPC bid proposal can be reduce by 50%. While this contracting

strategy does have a merit to speed up the project schedule, it is a

complex process and therefore requires a careful planning, proper

technical quality assurance as well as adequate project control and

administration.

A separate FEED work and EPC work bidding process.

This is the conventional way of executing the FEED and EPC bid and

can be done only if the time is available. In this case, the qualified

FEED bidder does not necessarily become a qualified EPC bidder.

Another pre-qualification using different criteria will be done for the

EPC bid phase.

IN T EG R A T ED F EE D & EP C B ID

B D EV E LO P F E E D

- T E CH NO LO G Y X

F EE D BID DE RS :

A , B, C

B

E PC BID DE RS :

A, B, C

E D EV E LO P F E E D

- TE C H N O L O G Y Y

F EE D BID DE RS :

D , E, F

E

E PC BID DE RS :

D, E, F

G D EV E LO P F E E D

- TE C H N O L O G Y Z

F EE D BID DE R:

G

G

E PC BID DE R:

G

EPC

Contract

W inner

D

X -

E PC BI DP ACKA GE

Y -

E PC BI D

P ACKA GE

Z -

E PC BI D

P ACKA GE

M ultiple F EED

F EE D BID DE RS :

A , B, C , D ,

E, F, G

Figure 10 – Contracting Strategy for Multiple Technology Competition

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In the multiple FEED design competition with „drip FEED‟, owner must pay

adequate attention to the quality of the FEED work. There is a possibility that due

to the need to be competitive in the EPC bid the FEED contractor will not

completely disclosed all of their design innovation to their „would be

competitors‟. If the FEED work is done properly, there should not be much

exception; clarification or alternative bid items in the EPC bid proposal.

IX. Cost Optimization Of Indonesia’s Tangguh LNG Project

The Tangguh LNG is developed to be the third LNG center in Indonesia. Located

in the eastern part of Indonesia, it enjoys the proximity to China, Japan, Korea

and Taiwan LNG market. For PERTAMINA, Tangguh LNG is the next

grassroots plant almost 30 years after the grassroots facilities were built in Arun

and Bontang LNG Plants.

However, the LNG business environment today is completely different from the

business set-up back in the 70‟s. The future is no longer a linear extrapolation of

our experiences.

Bontang LNG plant still hold the world record for the shortest time required for

the first LNG shipment counted from the first gas well discovery. Both Arun and

Bontang grassroots LNG Plants were built as a fast track project on reimbursable

fee EPC contract.

On the contrary, Tangguh LNG project is being developed in a fierce LNG market

competition, as a grassroots plant that has to compete with many LNG expansion

projects. Therefore, Tangguh LNG project must do things differently in order to

survive the competition.

The Tangguh LNG Project was originally planned for a two trains launch, with

Owner pre-selected the Acid Gas Removal technology and the LNG Liquefaction

technology on a single FEED contract strategy. The project economics started to

deteriorate when the industry experience a record low on crude oil price in 1998,

amplified by the difficulties to find prospective Buyers for a 2 trains production

quantity. Since then, the project economics was thoroughly re-evaluated, crude oil

price assumption revised, and the launch quantity revised to one train. It was

concluded that the only way to achieve such a massive cost reduction was by

executing a multiple technology competition on an integrated FEED and EPC

bidding processes. Lesson was learned from the Trinidad LNG Project, in which

British Gas is also one of the partner in the project.

FEED/EPC Bidders pre-qualification completed in August 1999, and the FEED

bid process completed in February 2000. The FEED work started in April 2000

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for a 12 months schedule . The FEED applies a „drip FEED‟ concept, in which the

FEED Contractor will drip the deliverables to the EPC Bidders participant.

The Multiple FEED strategy had been implemented in Atlantic LNG (Trinidad &

Tobago), and had achieved a very significant project cost reduction. The plant has

been commissioned and operated successfully. The „drip FEED‟ had been

implemented in Oman LNG Project and has reduced the project cycle time

significantly. Tangguh LNG Project will implement both concept, a Multiple and

„drip‟ FEED. To the best of our knowledge, no other LNG project has ever

embarked into such kind of integrated project management concept.

PERTAMINA had executed two grassroots LNG projects in the 70‟s, since then

PERTAMINA had successfully managed 7 (seven) LNG Expansion Projects. The

last project was completed in 1999. No other oil majors have similar experiences.

Despite the previous project were managed in a ‟conventional‟ way, our

commitment to execute Tangguh LNG project in a different way prove

PERTAMINA ability to meet the changing LNG industry demand, business

practices and competition.

X. Conclusion

The world LNG industry is changing but the Asia Pacific LNG industry is facing

even more business pressure to change. With the sluggish LNG demand forecast

and more players entering the LNG industry, LNG will become more a

commodity rather than premium energy alternative.

Eventhough analysts forecasted that the supply demand gap would disappear past

the year 2010, but that forecast itself is a signal that more LNG project will be

developed to anticipate the narrowing gap. Competition for the LNG market will

not going to be easier in he future. Consequently, the LNG producers started to

accept the need to restructure the business, the contract term and condition, the

project management and the project-financing scheme.

Any grassroots LNG project has obvious cost disadvantage compare to an

expansion project, owing to larger scope and complexity. However, a grassroots

project has its own merit of higher opportunity for cost optimization since it does

not limited by the existing design, specification or contracting strategies. If

managed properly a grassroots LNG project would be able to compete head to

head with any expansion project, even at a smaller LNG sales quantity.

The need and the opportunity to do things differently in a grassroots LNG project

has generated a numbers of project management concept, design philosophies and

contracting strategies. Multiple FEED and „drip‟ FEED emerges as a promising

concept to achieve the specified target cost.

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Execution of Multiple and „drip‟ FEED requires Owner to clearly pre-scribe the

competition boundary and the evaluation criteria. Level of detail on design

competition should be appropriately set to meet Owner project cost objective. All

of the competition aspect, including bid procedure should be planned thoroughly

to achieve a fair and accountable design competition.

The LNG industry has a varied understanding on what is called a LNG

Liquefaction technology competition. Many studies revealed that the LNG

Liquefaction technology is not a significant contributor to the project cost

optimization. Recent PERTAMINA study also confirmed the previous study

finding. Other aspect such as design innovation, project specification and

contracting strategy contribute more than the feature of the technology itself. The

so called „technology competition‟ is more appropriately called as „design

competition‟.

PERTAMINA considers a design competition is a necessary tool for a survival of

a grassroots project like the Tangguh LNG Project. In the future, it would not be

impossible to expand the concept for an expansion project.

In doing any effort to optimize project cost, Owner must always remember that

the end result of any LNG project competition is to secure LNG Sales Purchase

Agreement and Project Financing Agreement. Buyer requirement to meet safety

and reliability standards shall not be overlooked or relaxed by the need to reduce

cost.

The trend to have a smaller contract quantity, for a shorter period and at a less

rigid contract term and condition has put a LNG project as a higher investment

risk for Project Financier. Owner should consider this aspect by designing

countermeasures in the project cost optimization effort. FEED/EPC Bidders must

be pre-qualified and selected not only based on their technical performance but

also the financial strength.

The LNG industry will continue to change. The players that will survive in the

long run is the one that can adjust to and anticipate new demand and situation.

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XI. Reference Cited

1. “Asia Pacific LNG Demand and Supply Forecast”, Gas Matters, April 1998

2. “LNG Project Cost Benchmarking, Multi Client Study”, Poten & Partner,

Internal Report to ARCO, April 1999

3. R. N. DiNapoli, C. C. Yost III, “LNG Plant Costs: Present and Future

Trends”, 12th

International Conference on Liquefied Natural Gas, Perth, May

1998

4. K. J. Vink, R. K. Neigelvoort, “Comparison of Baseload Liquefaction

Processes”, 12th

International Conference on Liquefied Natural Gas, Perth,

May 1998

5. PERTAMINA, “LNG Processes Evaluation Report”, PKP, Processing

Directorate Internal Study, November 1999

6. “Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Fact Sheet”, U.S. Energy Information

Administration, October 1998

7. Institute of Gas Technology, “Delay Seen For New Projects”, LNG Observer

Vol. IX No.6, November – December 1998