conducting climate change risk and vulnerability assessments in rural mountain communities in the...
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Conducting Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessments in Rural Mountain Communities in the Columbia Basin Region of Canada. Presented by Jeff Zukiwsky at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change Risk and
Vulnerability Assessment: Examples from Rural Mountain Communities in the
Columbia Basin Region of Canada
Jeff Zukiwsky
Zumundo Consultants
Fernie, Canada
September 28, 2010
Overview
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
2
Columbia Basin Trust (CBT)
Communities Adapting to Climate Change (CACC) Initiative
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
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Adapting to Climate Change
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
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CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
Canada
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1. Get Started
2. Learn About Climate Change
3. Identify Community Priorities
4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities
5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions
6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan
CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
Canada
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1. Get Started
• Appoint a coordinator
• Establish a local steering committee
2. Learn About Climate Change
3. Identify Community Priorities
4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities
5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions
6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan
CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
Canada
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1. Get Started
2. Learn About Climate Change
• Local observations
• Historical patterns
• Future projections
3. Identify Community Priorities
4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities
5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions
6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan
Annual mean temperature, 1961-1990 (left) and CGCM3-A2 / CRCM4 downscaled scenario, 2041-2070 (right)
(Source: Trevor Murdock, PCIC)
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
Canada
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CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
Canada
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1. Get Started
2. Learn About Climate Change
3. Identify Community Priorities
• Engage Community
• Map climate change impacts
4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities
5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions
6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan
Mapping Climate Change Impacts
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
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CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
Canada
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1. Get Started
2. Learn About Climate Change
3. Identify Community Priorities
4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities
• Risk- based Approach
• Combined Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions
6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan
Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
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Risk Management Approach
Risk = Probability x Consequence
Co
nse
qu
en
ce High
Low
Unlikely Likely
Probability
Negligible- No action required
Low- Some actions (public education) may be desirable
Moderate- Some controls required to reduce risk to lower levels
High - High priority control measures required
Extreme - Immediate controls required
Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
13
Combined Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability = Sensitivity x Adaptive Capacity
Risk = Probability x Consequence
Rate each ‘impact’ as low, medium, or high
Low
Vulnerability
High
Vulnerability
High Risk May be priority planning areas Should be priority planning
areas
Low Risk Are unlikely to be priority
planning areas May be priority planning areas
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
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Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
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District of Elkford
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
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• Priorities:
• Flooding
• Wildfires
• 1 day workshop (consultant
facilitated) with City staff, elected
officials, scientific experts, and
community members
• Combined Risk and Vulnerability
Assessment
• Vulnerability = Sensitivity x
Adaptive Capacity
• Risk = Vulnerability x
Probability
Vu
lnerab
ilit
y
Damage to bridge
Flooding of buildings and land
Pumphouse flooding
Death/injury to river users
Stormwater managemen
t stress
Probability (20 year planning period)
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
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City of Kimberley
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
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3 Planning Priorities
1. Water and Forests
2. Municipal Infrastructure
3. Tourism
Climate
stress
+ Non-
climate
stresses
= Potential
impacts
Adaptive capacity Are
we
vulne
rable?
Possible
actions Can we
do it?
Challeng
es/
Barriers
Timeframe – Now + 5 years
Future Timeframe – 2020 to 2050
• Partnership with UBC - Climate
Change Impact Visualization
• Working group approach:
• Working group established for
each priority area (5-8 people)
• Vulnerability assessment based on
worksheets developed by each
working group
• 2-3 working group meetings to
assessment vulnerability
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
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City of Rossland
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
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• Combined Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
• Half day workshop
• 3 different colour dots:
• Present
• 20 years in the future
• 50 years in the future
• Result – Low, medium, or high rating for risk and vulnerability
Planning Area Future Climate Change
Impact/Opportunity
Sensitivity
(High, Medium, Low)
Adaptive Capacity
(High, Medium, Low)
Vulnerability
(Sensitivity x
Adaptive Capacity)
Food Security Extreme events resulting in road
closures and regional food
shortage (filled in for example)
Medium – Highway
crews and transport
trucks are ready to deal
with winter storms; but
temporary road closures
have occurred in the
past.
Medium – There are
several transportation
routes including air in an
emergency; grocery
stores have some
supplies as do individual
households
Medium
CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
Canada
21
1. Get Started
2. Learn About Climate Change
3. Identify Community Priorities
4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities
5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions
6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan
Summary: Challenges
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
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Multitude of methodologies for community-based RVA
Integration of adaptation strategy into existing policy and planning framework
Incorporating climate change opportunities into adaptation strategy - - - “RISK”
Vulnerability assessment approach is overly „academic‟ and complicated Is it valid?
Summary: Lessons Learned
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
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Communities are highly flexible:
Ability to interpret complex assessment criteria and make it work for rural communities
Community-driven approach:
Local steering committees
Community involvement
Mainstreaming:
Increased awareness and understanding of climate change impacts = integrating climate change impacts and adaptations into day-to-day planning and operations
Conclusion
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
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• Process Matters!
• Regardless of outcome, risk/
vulnerability assessment was an
extremely important learning and
capacity building tool
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
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Thank
You
Selected References
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
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• Australian Government (2008) Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government. Retrieved November 22, 2009 from: http://www.climatechange.gov.au/community/local-government/risk-management.aspx
• Black, Bruce, & Egener (2009) Adapting to Climate Change: A Risk-Based Guide for Alberta Municipalities. Retrieved November 22, 2009 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/pdf/176a_e.pdf
• Carter, Parry, Nishioka , & Harasawa (1994) Technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations. University College London, England and Centre for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Japan, 59 pp
• Harford, D. (2008) Climate Change Adaptation: Planning for BC. Retrieved from Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions website: www.pics.uvic.ca/research.php
• Hilson, D (2002) Extending the risk process to manage opportunities. International Journal of Project Management, 20, 235–240.
• Noble, Bruce, Egener, (2005) An Overview of the Risk Management Approach to Climate Change in Canada. Retrieved March 11, 2010 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/pdf/NobleBruceEgener2005_e.pdf
• NRCAN (Natural Resources Canada) (2007) From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate. Chapter 8 –British Columbia. Retrieved November 28, 2009 from http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php
• Parzen, J. (ed). (2008). Chicago Area Climate Change Quick Guide: Adapting to the Physical Impacts of Climate Change. For Municipalities and Other Organizations. Retrieved March 9, 2010 from: http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/filebin/pdf/Chicago_Quick_Guide_to_Climate_Change_Preparation_June_2008.pdf
• Schneider, Semenov, & Patwardhan, (2007) Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Chapter 19, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp
• Snover, Whitely Binder, Lopez, Willmott, Kay, Howell, & Simmonds. (2007). Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments. In association with and published by ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, Oakland, CA.
• Halifax Regional Municipality (2007) Climate Change: Developer's Risk Management Guide.