Conference on Quality in Space and Defense Industries

Robert J. KuperCertified, Lean Six Sigma Black Belt

Dean, Reliability Engineering CompetencyProgram Manager, Reliability for the Future Force

Conference on Quality

in Space and Defense

Industries

2008Probabilistic Technology

The Army Culture Change

Program

Evolving the Army’s PT Culture Change “Background”

1988 Identified the Emerging Value of Probabilistic Technology 1993 Probabilistic Technology research initiated 1994-1996 Technology Demonstrated in Tech Base

Won National Award – “First Insensitive Munitions Container Design” – Design Process Enhancement – A Real Culture Change - A New

Paradigm for the Design Process “Physics-based Probabilistic M&S from Conceptual Design thru

Verification & Validation 2003 Initiated General Application type Training in PT 2004 Re-energized the PT thrust – Congressional Interest Program 2005 Demo T&E cost reduction via adv’d PT M&S – “Black Powder”. 2005-2006 XM982 Characterized internal ballistic loading profiles on

complex MEMS IMU components 2006 Solved Mortar Fin cracking problems PT-Physics-based analysis 2006 Demonstrated PT as value-added R&D Design tool “APOBS” 2006 Developed “Probabilistic Lean Six Sigma” 2007 Probabilistic Technology Community – National Agenda for

Enhanced Competitiveness 2007 Initiated PT LC Enhancements to Tools/Processes

B

System Development& Demonstration

Production & Deployment

Operations & Support

C

Concept & Technology

Development

A

PRE-SYSTEMS AQUISITION SYSTEMS AQUISITION SUSTAINMENT Dis

posa

l/Dem

il

BB

System Development& Demonstration

Production & Deployment

Operations & Support

CC

Concept & Technology

Development

AA

PRE-SYSTEMS AQUISITION SYSTEMS AQUISITION SUSTAINMENT Dis

posa

l/Dem

il

Life

Cyc

le C

ost I

nflu

ence

0%

100%

DFL/6 L/6Greater ROI through Early Detection & Preventive Action

Cos

t of C

orre

ctiv

e A

ctio

n

Costs are Lowto Redesign

Costs are Highto Repair Fleetor Stockpile

Robust DesignsReduce Production& Sustainment Costs

Little Impact w/o Re-design

X

Up To(1000+)X

O V DMAIC/DMALCDC/I

PT-Enhanced DFLSS Influencing the Product Life Cycle

Early, Upfront Investment in Probabilistic Technology:

Drives Identification & Elimination of Failure Mechanisms

Prioritizes Investment

Focuses Design and Process Approach

Yields “Better, Cheaper, and Faster”

Integration of Probabilistic Technology with DFLSS

Critical Role for Probabilistic Technology: “Enhancing Decision-making structures across the LC– Integration with DFLSS, Program Mgt & System Engineering– DFLSS built into Product Development Process (PDP)– PT Becomes a Key Component of LSS – LC Process Focus

• PT- Enhanced DFLSS: Innovation and Conceptual Design – “Rapid Innovation”

• PT- Enhanced DFLSS: Robust Design, Reliability-Based Design Optimization, Axiomatic Design

• PT- Enhanced DMAIC/DMALC: Process and Product Improvement

Customer Customer RequirementsRequirements

Customer Customer ExpectationExpectation

Design for Lean Six SigmaDesign for Lean Six Sigma

Customer Customer RequirementsRequirements

Customer Customer ExpectationExpectation

Design for Lean Six SigmaDesign for Lean Six Sigma

Army Plan

PT

for

Technology Base Reliability Enhancement Thrust Areas

• MEMS Critical Component Reliability Enhancement Initiative

• Embedded PT on a SMARTChip• Composite Technology Maturation & Design for Ultra-

Reliability & Service Life• Probabilistic, Physics-based Integrated M&S

Architecture• “Rapid Innovation” -Tech Base Processes, Tools,

Methods & Best Practices Initiative: Integration of world experts BOK, state of the art tools, methods and processes to provide a world class tech base system.– Advanced Physics-based tools– Seamless Integration of Stochastic/Probabilistic Methods– World class Optimization tools and methods– Phase/Gate: I2DOV & CDOV Process and Axiomatic Design

• EM Gun system platform demonstration project

“Rapid Innovation”• Tech Base Processes, Tools, Methods & Best Practices

Initiative to develop World Class Technology Maturation System

• Addressing actions by the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Providing Probabilistic, Physics-based tools and advanced process management of the tech base

• Supported by World Experts:– Dr. Khalessi – Probabilistic Physics-based Tools, Methods;

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ); Quantitative Risk; Optimization.– Dr. Skip Creveling – DFLSS I2DOV and CDOV processes– Dr. Basem Haik – Axiomatic Design– NASA HQ and Centers– ARDEC LSS Deployment Director: Paul Chiodo– APO Lead: Bob Kuper

• Deliverables: DOD Standard and Guidebook for Technologists Implementation

PT Principles, Tools & Products for TRL 2-4 Maturity Achievement in Early Tech Base

MPP

Probability

Sensitivity

Analyzing ResultsVariableModels

(force, time, etc.)

Process Models

(stress, life, etc.)

Pred

ictiv

e M

odel

sg=

(all.

Res

p.)-

(Est

. Res

p.) Probabilistic

Analysis• FORM• SORM• SM• ISM• RSM• MVBMSy

stem

Def

initi

on &

Dat

a G

athe

ring

PL

PH

System

Subsys.K

Subsys. K-1

Subsys. K-2

Subsys. 2

Subsys. 1

Comp. JComp. J-1Comp. 2Comp. 1

Notional System

c: Define safe and failure domains

Safe Domainx

Mean Point

x2

x1

FailureDomain g4

g3

g1 g2M&S

BayesianPhysics

ProbabilisticAnalyses

Results of M&S, Advanced Physics ToolsConcepts & Technology emergeBayesian Approaches; PredictionModel conceptsConcepts Simulated in war fight Derive Performance ReqtsApply Probabilistic Physics in

Notional applications Determine RMS DriversDetermine Limit state functionsEarly KPP evolutionLC Cost Modeling/implications

Innovation & Conceptual Design Approach

Principles, Tools & their Productsfor RMS TRL 5-8 Maturity Achievement

• TRLs 5-8: Framework for identifying RMS Drivers – defined Operational Environments, imposed stresses, desired performance, define reqts for RMS

• Best Practices for component/technology research begin with Advanced Physics-based Probabilistic and multi-physics M&S.

• Tools:– Finite Element Analyses– Computational Fluid Dynamics– Dynamic Simulations– Multi-Body Physics– Thermal and Fatigue Analyses– Probabilistic Analyses– Reliability/RMS Analytics

Performance level = C1

Products of Tools

IMPACT of Tools

Most probable

points

Identify Most Likely Failure Modes/Mechansims Determine Uncertainty/Risk in ALL parameters Model the multi-physics of all Performance Quantitative Risk Assessments of all failure prob. Understand Sensitivities of all key parameters Quantitative TRL maturity measures “Design-in”better inherent performance & RMS

Related Initiatives - Composite Materials and Structures -

• Objective: Developing Reliability-Based Design Optimization system for all Composites Technology Programs.

• Phase I SBIR – transitioning to Phase II Fast Track Program in FY08. – Understand, characterize and micromechanically model these damage

modes based on rigorous mechanics and predictive framework.• Interfacial fiber/matrix de-bonding• Inter-laminar penny-shaped delamination micro-cracks,• Matrix micro-cracking (in-plane or transverse) • Fiber breaking, buckling, and crushing

– Failure models will be used in Phase 2 and 3 to develop a Probabilistic, Physics-based Design Optimization

• Key Partnerships – Technical Excellence Initiative & Pilot Programs with NASA on Return to

Moon Heavy Lift Vehicle (ARES).– Working with World Experts at PredictionProbe, Inc., UCLA, NASA, and

others– Pursuing partnerships and leveraging with Homeland Security and Army

Corps of Engineers

B

No Failure Observed

A

Reliability Without Part Replacement

Minimum Acceptable Reliability

SmartChip™ Technology Allows for the Evaluation of System Reliability on The Fly

SmartChip™ Updates Reliability Model at A , based on sensor data

SmartChip™ Recommends Part Replacement at B & Upgrades Reliability upon Part ReplacementReliability,

R(t)

Time (t)

Planned Repairs by SmartChip™

SmartChip™ Technology Provides For Highly Reliable Diagnostics & Prognostics

Decision-making

SmartChip™ Technology maximizes system availability by providing for properly timed/planned downtime and eliminating unexpected failures

Related Initiatives- Probabilistic M&S -

Structural FEAANSYS

Dynamic M&SLS-DYNA

Solid ModelingPRO-E

IntegratedPhysics Environment

for Armaments

Reliability, Safety, Optimization & Risk Environment

Cost EnvironmentLogistics Environment

RequirementsEnvironment

EffectivenessEnvironment

ManufacturingEnvironment

Business ProcessEnvironment

ProbabilisticEnvironment

Integrated Probabilistic ComputationalEnvironment

PropulsionIBHVG

Intermediate Calculations &Simulations

Matlab, Excel

Aero-ballisticsPRODAS

KnowledgebaseNotebook Eqns. and

Rules of Thumb

Initial Focus“Physics Environment”

DistributedSimulation

Environment

Probabilistic Technology Enhancement to DFLSS

Prob. TechnologyStandards

Guidelines

ARMY Probabilistic TechnologyBOK, Training &

Sustaining System

Lean Six SigmaDeployment

StrategyDesign For

Lean Six SigmaDFLSS

Integrating PT Awareness

ASQ/PTC

Probabilistic Technology Certification Program – Independent 3rd partyASQ

Implem

entation In A

rmy

Programs

Feedback & Success Stories

LSS Infrastructure

BOK4 Level

ProbabilisticTechnology Certification

Program