conferinta “romania in tabloul de bord european” 13 mai 2013
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CONFERINTA “ROMANIA IN TABLOUL DE BORD EUROPEAN” 13 MAI 2013. POATE TABLOUL DE BORD AJUTA LA PREVENIREA VIITOAREI CRIZE? Dr. Aurelian DOCHIA. TABLOUL DE BORD IN STRUCTURA GUVERNANTEI ECONOMICE EUROPENE. PROCEDURA DEZECHILIBRELOR MACROECONOMICE. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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CONFERINTA “ROMANIA IN TABLOUL DE BORD EUROPEAN”
13 MAI 2013
POATE TABLOUL DE BORD AJUTA LA
PREVENIREA VIITOAREI CRIZE?
Dr. Aurelian DOCHIA
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TABLOUL DE BORD IN STRUCTURA GUVERNANTEI ECONOMICE EUROPENE
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Procedura Dezechilibrelor Macroeconomice este un mecanism de supraveghere care urmareste sa previna si sa corecteze dezechilibrele macroeconomice in UE.
Se bazeaza pe un sistem de alerta care foloseste un tablou de indicatori (scoreboard) si analize de profunzime, reguli mai stricte sub forma Procedurii Dezechilibrelor Excesive si o aplicare ce include sanctiuni financiare pentru membrii care nu respecta recomandarile.
Primele analize de profunzime au fost finalizare in 2012 pentru un numar de 12 tari.
PROCEDURA DEZECHILIBRELOR MACROECONOMICE
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Un numar de 11 indicatori urmaresc tendintele economiei: deficite, somaj, competitivitate externa, preturile activelor, dinamica sectorului financiar.
Pentru fiecare indicator se stabilesc praguri de alerta – pentru unii indicatori acestea sunt diferentiate pe membri si nemembri ai zonei euro.
O imagine grafica sintetica asupra pozitiei unei tari poate fi obtinuta prin calcularea nivelului cu care sunt depasite pragurile de alerta.(v. Elisa-Parisi Capone - Economonitor)
O IMAGINE DE SINTEZA
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TOATA LUMEA GRESESTE – DAR UNII MAI MULT!
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GERMANIA – REABILITARE REUSITA
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AUSTRIA – SPECTRELE REVIN
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OLANDA – DISCIPLINA, DAR CU MASURA
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BELGIA – DEZECHILIBRE MODERATE DAR PERSISTENTE
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FINLANDA – O SURPRIZA NEPLACUTA
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FRANTA – MAI RAU, MAI BINE
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ITALIA – CONSECVENTA CU SINE INSASI
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SPANIA – ERA ATAT DE FRUMOS!
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IRLANDA – A FOST CUM A FOST
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PORTUGALIA – TOATE RELELE LA UN LOC
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GRECIA – CUM POTI PIERDE OLIMPIADA
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ROMANIA – AM STIUT DAR N-AM CREZUT!
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
Sectorul financiarCreditul privatRata de schimb efectivaPozitie investitionala netaSoldul cont curent
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BULGARIA – EXUBERANTA BALCANICA
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
Sectorul financiarRata somajuluiDatoria guvernamentalaDatoria privataCreditul privatCost unitar forta de muncaRata de schimb efectivaPozitie investitionala netaSoldul cont curent
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POLONIA – SA INVATAM DE LA NEMTI
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Sectorul financiarRata somajuluiCost unitar forta de muncaRata de schimb efectivaPozitie investitionala netaSoldul cont curent
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Tabloul de bord nu aduce informatii fundamental noi; Tabloul de bord nu este intotdeauna un bun predictor al crizelor; Pragurile de alerta nu au o fundamentare si pot fi contestate; Nu este stabilit nivelul cu care pragurile de alerta pot fi depasite
inainte ca procedura de dezechilibru excesiv sa se declanseze; Ramane deschisa chestiunea selectarii tarilor care sunt supuse
analizei aprofundate – Comisia isi propune sa interpreteze “calitativ” informatiile din tabloul de bord astfel ca apare un element de arbitrar.
Comunicarea publica legata de performanta macroeconomica:◦ Va influenta pietele financiare;◦ Va fi preluata in disputele politice, generind tentatia de a rastalmaci
informatiile.◦ Va crea rezistenta politica si sociala.
Nu este clar cum va fi preluat “tabloul de bord” in procesul de decizie politica, fara de care ramane un exercitiu steril
CONCLUZII