Conflict resolution in the Balkans

State of negotiations before the war

Conflict resolution

Věra Stojarová

Main features of Slovenia and the Western/Eastern Balkan states

What is Balkan? Western Balkan, southern, eastern??

Dates: (395, 1054, end of 14, century, 1453)

Dissolution of yugoslavia into what??

Nations, ethnics, religions, language, script, lliteracy, life standard

Conflicts in the Balkans

1989 Kosovo withdrawal authonomy 1991 Slovenia, Croatia and BiH declared

independence, JNA 1991-95 war in Croatia and BiH 1997 rebellion in Albania 1999 Kosovo 2000 Preševo medvedja bujanovac 2001 Macedonia – Ohrid agreement 2003 FRY changed into Serbia and Montenegro 2006 independence of Montenegro 2008 independence of Kosovo

1980´sLiberalisation of slovenia and croatiaKosovo – withdrawal of authonomy, own state institutions, referenda, independence, state of emergency, LDK, ibrahim rugova, 28.6.1989 demonstration at gazimestan, new constitution, albanian language unofficial, emergence of other political parties, alb electionsNationalism – martinovic case, paracinovo, poisoning of albanian children, st. Sava, ustasha, chetnicks

1990s

Conference in Hague - October 1991 kosovo was not mentioned at allBadinter commission25.6.1991 declaration of independence for slovenia and croatia10 days war in slovenia – occupation of the border posts1991-1995 war in croatia, civil war vs. war of two states

EC EC will not recognize independence of slovenia and croatia unless all political means of conflict resolution are used

Countries trying for maintainence of yugoslavia

GBSpainFrance

Countries supporting independence

AustriaItalyGermany

Germany and recognition

• German unification• Germany supporting Croatia (ustashas

independent state)• Economic crisis in germany vs

profilation in the international arena• Breaking the national minorities right• Fear of dominating the continent• Regaining the lost identity• re-evaluation of german demilitarisation,

foreign missions

USA and recognition• Fast recognition of BiH. • Isolation of FRY and recognition of

slovenia, croatia, bih and macedonia• For recognition of croatia they gained

croatian recognition of bih (no partition of bih between croatia and serbia

EU – badinter commission Slovenia and macedonia ok Croatia – status of national minorities BiH – referendum

EU EU did not respect recomendation of

badinter comision and recognized slovenia croatia and bih at the beginning of 1992

Recognition of dead states 27.6- 4.7. 1991 conflict in slovenia Croatian-Serbian war in Croatia till 1995 Croatian-Serbian-Bosniak war in BiH till 1995

Discussion Could EU hinder the conflicts in yugoslavia? Was it right to insist on integrity of yugoslavia and then with the outburst of

the conflict recognize the already dead states? Is CFSP united? Who should intervene into the solution of the european conflicts - EU,

OSN, USA, OSCE? What are the reasons of dissolution of yugoslavia? Is it possible to build multiethnic state? On what basis? Are nation states a solution? Should nation states copy the ethnic

borders? Historical borders? Would the solution be the division of the balkan between greater croatia,

greater serbia, greater macedonia, greater bulgaria, Is it right to recognize state where the civil war takes place? Is it right to recognize state where the rights of national minorities are

violated? Would it not be better to suport the serbian effort to protect the territorial

integrity of yugoslavia by armed force? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FK6Hvtifkrw jasenovac i gradiška stara

thompson

Conflict resolution in the Balkans

State of negotiations during the war in Croatia and BiH

Conflict resolution

Věra Stojarová

War in croatia- serbian iredentism

1989 – official language in croatia – only croatian December 1990 serbian autonomous province krajinafebruary 1991 decision of secession from croatia and staying in fry december 1991 Republika Srbska KrajinaSince Spring 1991 armed clashes

War in croatia – patriotic war vs. ethnic cleansing

Oficial croatian army : Croatian army

Paramilitary groups : HOSovci croatian defence forces, armed wing of _HSP) fiercy stallions etc..

Oficial serbian army: Army of yugoslavia, army of serbia and monte negro, officialy had to withdraw but left the armament

Paramilitary groups Serbian volunteer guard, Tigers, serbian chetnic movement of vojislav šešejl, white eagles of mirko jovič etc..

War in croatia- serbian iredentism

Croatian serbian war 1991-1995 dayton peace agreement Territory fully under the croatian control in 1998 Serbian minority drop – from 12 % to 5 %

Ethnic composition of BiH

44 % Bosniaks (Muslims)

31 % Serbs

17 % Croats

Serbs Croats Bosniaks I. Bosniak II.

Internal actor Political party Serbian democratic party (SDS BiH)

Croatian democratic community (HDZ BiH)

Party of democratic action (SDA)

Persona Radovan Karadžić Davor Perinović, Stjepan Kljuić, Mate Boban

Alija Izetbegović Fikret Abdić

Armed formation Army of Republika srpska

Croatian council of defence (HVO)

Army of Republic BaH Army of Fikret Abdić

State 9.1.1992 Republika srpska BaH, 12.8. renamed Republika srpska, Pale

3.7.1992 Croatian community Herzeg Bosna, 24.8.1993 Croatian republic Herzeg Bosna, Grude

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH, Sarajevo)

Athonomous region Western Bosnia, renamed Republic of Western Bosnia, Velka Kladuša

External actor Political party Socialistic party of Serbia (SPS)

Croatian democratic community (HDZ)

Support of islamic countries

Cooperation with Croats as well as Serbs

Persona Slobodan Milošević Franjo Tudjman

Armed formation Yugoslav Peples Army (JNA), Yugoslavian army

Croatian army (HV)

State Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), Belgrade

Croatia. Zagreb Support of islamic countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Libye)

Paramiliary formations

Serbian volunteer guard (Tigers) – Arkan; Chetniks- Šešelj; White Eagles- Jović

Croatian defence forces (HOS)

El-Mudžahid

Green Berets

I. Phase of the war (6. 4. 1992 beginning 1993)

II. Phase of the war (1993 -March 1994)

III. Phase of the war (March 1994 -1995)

IV. Local episode (29. 9. 1993 - 7. 8. 1995)

Serbs x Bosniaks + Croats

Serbs x Bosniaks

Serbs x Croats

Bosniaks x Croats

Serbs x Bosniaks + Croats

Bosniaks x Bosniaks (Army of the Republic BaH x Army of Fikret Abdić)

Dayton Peace Agreement

Negotiated in Dayton, signed in Paris 14th December 1995, signed by Milošević, Tudjman and Izetbegović, The Constitution of BiH was included in

Annex IV. Of the Dayton Peace Agreement

BiH – composed of 2 Entities

the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (51 %) and the

Republic of Srpska (49 %). All citizens of either Entity are thereby

citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

 ANNEX 7Agreement on Refugees and Displaced

Persons

All refugees and displaced persons have the right freely to return to their homes of origin. They shall have the right to have restored to them property

Annex 10. Article V. Dayton Peace Agreement. : Final Authority to Interpret

The High Representative is the final authority in theater regarding interpretation of this Agreement on the civilian implementation of the peace settlement.

Valentin Inzko since 2009 Miroslav Lajčák July 2007 -2009Christian Schwarz-Schilling 31 January 2006 – July 2007 Paddy Ashdown 27 May 2002 - 31 January 2006 Wolfgang Petritsch August 1999 - 27 May 2002   Carlos Westendorp June 1997 - July 1999 Carl Bildt December 1995 - June 1997  

•Conflicts between the International Community and the local leaders have been quite frequentAll elections in BiH were dominated by the parties, which were at the break of the war

Serbia

Republic of Srpska

Serbia Monte Negro

Serbia: the plain tricolour as the national flag, the tricolour with coat of arms as the state flag

Sarajevo Agreement signed 27th of May 2002: unprecedently modified

the Dayton Peace Agreement:

The Article 4: The national representation in all the institutions must reflect the

proportion of the population according to the census from 1991.

This article is unrealistic and is ignored by all sides.

Political system in BiH according to the Sarajevo agreement, which modified the Dayton Peace agreement:

BiH: Presidency: each entity shall have 1

representative, 4 years. Government: Council of ministers appointed by

the Presidency. Powers: foreign policy, foreign trade, tawes, monetary politics, financing of the institutions of BiH, foreign obligations, immigration, refugees, international law, penal law inbetween the entities, common infrastructure, air space control.

Legislative: bicameral:

House of nations – 15 MPs, 5 from each entity, delegates elected by the parliaments of RS and FBiH

House of representatives: 42 MPs, 2/3 (28) elected directly in FBiH, 1/3 (14) in RS

Both chambers elect their common presidency, system of rotation.

Constitutional court: 9 members, 4 are nominated by the House of representatives FBiH, 2 by national assembly RS, 3 by the chair of the European court for human rights (must not be the inhabitants of BiH or the neighbouring state, nominated for 5 years)

FBiH: President rotates with 2 vice-presidents, elected by the House of

representatives, president nominates the government, he is consulted with the nominationof ombudsman and judges, sighns laws and international treaties, grants amnesties ( with exclusion of the war crimes and genocide)

Government: prime minister and deputy prime minister, ministers and their deputy prime ministers which must not be from the same nation as the prime ministers. 8 Bosniacs, 5 Croats, 3 Serbs.

Legislative: House of representatives : 98 MPs, 4 Years, direct vot, 73 proportional systém, 25 compensatory mandates.

House of nations: 58 MPs, 17 from each nation and 7 seats for the minorities)

Constitutional court 9 judges

RS: President with 2 vice-presidents from all nations,

direct vote, president proposes the prime minister, the NAtional assembly approves the government

Government 8 Serbs, 5 Bosniacs 3 Croats. National assembly 83 MPs, direct vote, 4 years. The Council of Nations consists of 28

representatives delegated by the National Assembly (eight Croats, eight Bosniacs, eight Serbs, and four others).

Constitutional court: 7 judges, elected for 8 years, once.

Challenges for BiH New constitution Anthem in Serbia, use of flag Mission Althea Institutional building, justice, organized

crime, civil society, state of law… EU Main challenge is to find COMMON AIM IN

1 STATE

Questions:

Is the endeavour of the international community to build the multiethnic society right/feasible?

Does BiH in its current shape have a future? Would not be better to divide Bosnia? If Yes – How?

Would not be better to build nation states in the Balkans – Greater Serbia, Greater Croatia etc.?

Should the international community withdraw from BiH or stay?What do u think about the US – stepping into the war, ending it and

then withdrawing leaving the job on the EU?

Seminar Who is guilty? Who was right? What happened? Who attacked whom? Who is victim and who is culprit? Who is good and who is bad? What is just and what is unjust? How did you behave in WWII? How did you behave in the Balkan wars 1912-

1913? Istina/truth

Seminar – conflict management in BiH Cutilheiro plan

The cantons will have certain authonomyBih will remain unitary state with high centralisation BaH – common parliament, central economy planning, central bank, common currency, flag, one representation in international organisations etc. Muslim and croatian opštiny 56,27% of BaH, Serbian opštiny 43,7%. Out of 106 opština – only 10 were ethnically monolitical (90 and more percent of one nations) the rest ethnically mixedKeeping the borders, veto on division of bih

Vance-Owen plan 10 autonomous ROUGHLY

accoding to the ethnic situation before the war provinces

Serbs – 3 cantons, Croats – 2 and 1 together with Muslims, Muslims – 3. Sarajevo – all communities together.

Government of the provinces – wide autonomy, composition regarding the national composition of the province

BiH led by presidency – 9 members, 3 from each nation.

Presidency shall name common government which shall last till the first elections

BiH as integral state, UN units shall guarantee the free movement of people and rights of national minorities

Provincies with Muslim-Croat inhabitants 52,33% BaH, serbian provincies 42,23%, mixed province Sarajevo 5,5% of the land.

Plan Owen-Stoltenberg

Loose union of 3 Bosnian republiks made on national principle

Muslim + Croat republics - 44,91% of the land BaH

Republic of Serbs - 52,09%. Sarajevo under UN - 3% of hte

land Mostar and Muslim enclaves

in eastern Bosnia – under EU supervision

Creation of corridors muslim republic had

corridor to reach the sea and to the sava river and the conection with the muslim enclaves Goražde, Srebrenica, Žepa and bihač