Conflict:RootCauses,Consequences,andSolutionsfortheFuture

(PPHA38740)

CourseInformation

UniversityofChicago,HarrisSchoolWinter2018Classtime:Friday9-11:50amRoom:140CInstructor:OeindrilaDube(odube@uchicago.edu)OfficeHours:Wednesday4:30-6pmOfficelocation:HarrisSchool,303ATeachingAssistant:TBA

CourseObjectives

Thegoalsof this courseare to introducestudents tokeyconcepts in thestudyof conflict, and todevelopthepolicyanalysisskillsneededtounderstandandassesskeyargumentsadvancedinthisarena.Effectivepolicymakerstodayareconsumersofdatascience,withanabilitytodiscernwhatmakesempiricalevidencecompelling.Thusamajoremphasisofthecoursewillbelearninghowtothink critically about empirical evidence, and to develop a better understanding of commonmethodologiesusedinempiricalanalysis,suchastheuseoffixedeffects,differences-in-differencesresearchdesigns,andinstrumentalvariablesestimation.Thismethodologicalemphasiswilloccurthrough the examination of fundamental topics in conflict. Drawing on economics and politicalscience,aswellaspsychology,wewillexaminetheroleofeconomicshocksandethnicdivisionsoncivilwar.Wewillalsodiscernwhethersimilarfactorsexplaintheriseofterrorism.Inaddition,wewill study the consequences of conflict on socio-economic development, and examine the role offoreignaidandpost-conflictreconciliationinhelpingcountriesrecoverfromconflict.

CourseRequirements

All studentsmust complete2memo-stylewrittenassignments. In theseassignments, youwillberequiredtocriticallyanalyzethecontentofeitheroneortwoacademicpapers,andarguewhetherthe author has presented sufficient evidence to support the conclusion and policy implicationadvanced in thepaper.Youwillbeaskedspecifically toassessboth theconceptualclaimand thevalidity of the empirical methodology in forming this assessment. Memos should be typed, andshouldnotexceed3pagesinlength(double-spaced,using12pointfont,1-inchmarginsallaround).

Yourgradesonthewrittenassignmentswillbebasedonboththequalityofyourwritingaswellastheclarityandcontentofyourpoints.

Note:TheseshouldbeemailedtomeandtheTAby5pmonthedatetheyaredue.Eachdayanassignmentislate,afullgradeisdeductedfromtheassignment.Startingfrom30minutesaftertheofficialdeadline,yourassignmentisconsideredtobeadaylate,andtwodayslate24hoursaftertheofficialdeadline,etc.

Allstudentswillalsoberequiredtodoanin-classpresentation,20-30minutesinlength.Youwillbeaskedtoselectoneofthepapersdesignatedunderthestudentpresentationsectionofeachtopicin the syllabus below, and present a brief overview, followed by an extensive assessment of thepaper, inwhichyou commenton thenatureof thedata, the empirical strategy andanalysis, andoffersuggestionsforwhatotherevidencewouldbeneededtosupporttheconclusionofthepaper.Thegoalofthepresentationistodeveloptheskillsneededtotranslatethecontentofanacademicpaperintosimpleterms;criticallyanalyzethecontent;andeffectivelycommunicatethisanalysistoanaudience.(Seepresentationguidanceforfurtherdetails).

Note:ThepresentationslidesaredueintomeandtheTAbyWednesday,5pm,theweekinwhichyoupresent.

Finally, you will be required to take an in-class final exam. The final examwill be held Friday,March16,9-11:50am.Thereisnoalternateexamtimeavailable.

CourseGrading

30%-2WrittenMemoAssignments(15%each)20%-ClassPresentation10%-ClassParticipationonnon-presentationdays40%-In-classFinalExamTexts

Allarticleswillbeuploadedonchalk.Linksarealsoprovidedbelowformostreadings.Linkssuchaswww.jstor.orgmayonlyworkfromanon-campuscomputerorIPaddress.Scholar.google.comisgenerallyanothergoodwayoflocatingreferences.

Itisexpectedthatyoudoallthereadingsbeforeclass,includingthepaperslistedunderthestudentpresentationsections.Thepresentationsaremeanttobeinteractivewithallstudentsintheclassparticipating,andnot just thepresenter.Thushavingallstudentsreadthepapers isessential forhavingqualitydiscussionduringclass.

TentativeSyllabus

1. January5th–IntroductionWewillgooverthecourserequirementsandassignments.Wewillalsoreviewhowtoreadacademic papers, and interpret regression tables in these papers.Wewill also cover thecontentofthesetwopapers:Colllier,PaulandAnkeHoeffler.2004.“GreedandGrievanceinCivilWar.”OxfordEconomicPapers.56(2004):563-595.Fearon, James D. and David D. Laitin. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” TheAmericanPoliticalScienceReview,Vol.97,No.1(Feb.,2003),pp.75-90

2. January12th–EthnicDivisionsandCivilConflict

Montalvo,JoseG.,andMartaReynal-Querol.2005.“EthnicPolarization,PotentialConflict,andCivilWars.”AmericanEconomicReview95(3):796–816.

Michalopoulos,SteliosandEliasPapaioannou.2015.“TheLong-RunEffectsoftheScrambleforAfrica.”AmericanEconomicReview.

Jha,Saumitra.2013.Trade,InstitutionsandEthnicTolerance:EvidencefromS.Asia,AmericanPoliticalScienceReview

Meier, Gerald M., and James E. Rauch. (2005). “Appendix: How to Read a Regression Table”, Leading Issues in Economic Development, Eight Edition, p. 561-566. (Posted on Chalk)

Papersforstudentpresentations:Yanagizawa-Drott,David.“PropagandaandConflict:TheoryandEvidencefromtheRwandanGenocide,”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics.

JoanEsteban,LauraMayoralandDebrajRay,EthnicityandConflict:AnEmpiricalInvestigationwith,AmericanEconomicReview102(2012),1310-1342.

3. January19th–TheEconomicCausesofCivilConflict

EdwardMiguel,ShankerSatyanathandErnestSergenti,2004.“EconomicShocksandCivilConflict:AnInstrumentalVariablesApproach,”JournalofPoliticalEconomy112(4),119-144.

Dube,OeindrilaandJuanVargas.“CommodityPriceShocksandCivilConflict:EvidencefromColombia.”ReviewofEconomicStudies.(2013)80,1384–1421.

"This mine is mine! How minerals fuel conflicts in Africa", (Nicolas Berman, MathieuCouttenier, Dominic Rohner, and Mathias Thoenig), forthcoming inAmerican EconomicReview.Papersforstudentpresentations:Angrist,JoshuaandAdrianaKugler.2008.“RuralWindfalloraNewResourceCurse?Coca,IncomeandCivilConflictinColombia.”TheReviewofEconomicsandStatistics.90(2):192-215.

Berman,NickandM.Couttenier.Externalshocks,internalshots:thegeographyofcivilconflicts,2015,ReviewofEconomicsandStatisticsvol97(4),pp758-776.

DUEDATEFORASSIGNMENT1:WednesdayJan25th

4. January26th–CanEconomicFactorsExplainTerrorism?

AlanB.KruegerandJitkaMaleckova,2003.“Education,PovertyandTerrorism:IsthereaCausalConnection?”JournalofEconomicPerspectives(17)4,pp.119-144.http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/3216934.pdfBlair,GraemeC.,ChristineFair,NeilMalhotraandJacobShapiro,"PovertyandSupportforMilitantPolitics:EvidencefromPakistan,"AmericanJournalofPoliticalScienceVolume57,Issue1,pages30–48,January2013.

EliBerman,MichaelCallen,JosephH.FelterandJakeShapiro.“DoWorkingMenRebel?EmploymentandInsurgencyinAfghanistan,IraqandthePhilippines.”JournalofConflictResolution(2011)55(4):496-528BenjaminW.Bahney,RadhaK.Iyengar,PatrickB.Johnston,DanielleF.Jung,JacobShapiroHowardJ.Shatz."InsurgentCompensation:EvidencefromIraq,"AmericanEconomicReview:PapersandProceedings,2013,103(3):518-522.

Papersforstudentpresentations:

“RelativePoverty,PerceivedViolence,andSupportforMilitantPolitics:EvidencefromPakistan.”2016byC.CHRISTINEFAIR,REBECCALITTMAN,NEILMALHOTRAANDJACOBN.SHAPIRO.PoliticalScienceResearchMethods

Piazza,James.A."ASupply-SideViewofSuicideTerrorism:ACross-NationalStudy."2008.JournalofPolitics.70(1):28-39.

Benmelech,EfrainandEstebanKlor.“WhatExplainstheFlowofForeignFighterstoISIS?”NBERWorkingPaper22190

5. February2nd–SocialandPsychologicalCausesofConflictLittman,RebeccaandBetsyLevyPaluck.2015.“TheCycleofViolence:UnderstandingIndividualParticipationinCollectiveViolence”AdvancesinPoliticalPsychology36(1):79-99.Victoroff, Jeff. “The Mind of the Terrorist: A Review and Critique of PsychologicalApproaches.”TheJournalofConflictResolution,Vol.49,No.1(Feb.,2005),pp.3-42

ScottAtran,HammadSheikh,andAngelGomez.“Devotedactorssacrificeforclosecomradesandsacredcause.”ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences111(50).17702–17703Papersforstudentpresentations

Whitehouse,Harvey,BrainMcQuinn,MichaelBuhrmest,andWilliamB.Swann,Jr.2014.“Brothersinarms:Libyanrevolutionariesbondlikefamily.”ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences111(50).

JeremyGinges,ScottAtran.WhatMotivatesParticipationinViolentPoliticalAction:SelectiveIncentivesorParochialAltruism?.AnnalsoftheNewYorkAcademyofSciences,Wiley,2009,1167,pp.115-123.

6. February9th–TheRoleofForeignAidIBesley,TimandTorstenPersson.2011.“TheLogicofPoliticalViolence.”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics

Berman,Eli,JacobShapiroandJosephFelter.Forthcoming.“CanHeartsandMindsbeBought:TheEconomicsofCounterinsurgencyinIraq.”JournalofPoliticalEconomy.

PaperforStudentPresentations:

DeRee,JoppeandEleonoraNillesen.“Aidingviolenceorpeace?Theimpactofforeignaidontheriskofcivilconflictinsub-SaharanAfrica”JournalofDevelopmentEconomics88(2009)301–313.

Beath,Andrew,FotiniChristiaandRubenEnikopolov.“WinningHeartsandMinds?EvidencefromaFieldExperimentinAfghanistan.”Workingpaper,MIT.

7. February16th–TheRoleofForeignAidIICrost,Benjamin,JosephFelterandPatrickJohnston.2014.“AidunderFire:DevelopmentProjectsandCivilConflict.”AmericanEconomicReview.Dube,OeindrilaandSureshNaidu.2015.“Bases,BulletsandBallots:theEffectofU.S.MilitaryAidonPoliticalConflictinColombia”withaOnlineAppendixJournalofPolitics.

Papersforstudentpresentations

Nunn,NathanandNancyQian,“USfoodaidandcivilconflict,”TheAmericanEconomicReview,2014,104(6),1630–1666.

CrostB.,J.FelterandP.Johnston.2016.ConditionalCashTransfers,CivilConflictandInsurgentInfluence:ExperimentalEvidencefromthePhilippines.JournalofDevelopmentEconomics118:171-182DUEDATEFORASSIGNMENT2:ThursdayFebruary23rd

8. February23rd–TheEffectofConflictonSocialCohesionBauer,Blattman,Chytilová,Henrich,Miguel,andMitts.“CanWarFosterCooperation?”JournalofEconomicPerspectives—Volume30,Number3—Summer2016—Pages249–274.

Dell,MelissaandPabloQuerubin.2016.NationBuildingThroughForeignIntervention:EvidencefromDiscontinuitiesinMilitaryStrategies.NBERWorkingPaperNo.22395.

Papersforstudentpresentations:

Voors,M.J.,E.E.M.Nillesen,E.H.Bulte,B.W.Lensink,P.Verwimp,andD.P.vanSoest.2012.“ViolentConflictandBehavior:aFieldExperimentinBurundi.AmericanEconomicReview.

Bauer,Michal,AlessandraCassar,JulieChytilová,andJosephHenrich.2014.“War’sEnduringEffectsontheDevelopmentofEgalitarianMotivationsandIn-GroupBiases.”PsychologicalScience25(1):47–57.

Rohner, Dominic, Mathias Thoenig and Fabrizio Zilibotti),"Seeds of Distrust: Conflict inUganda"JournalofEconomicGrowth,2013,18(3):217-252.

9. March2nd–ReconcilingandRebuildingafterConflict

Brouneus,Karen.“TheTraumaofTruthTelling:EffectsofWitnessingintheRwandanGacacaCourtsonPsychologicalHealth.”JournalofConflictResolution54(3)408–437Cillers, Jacobus, Oeindrila Dube and Bilal Siddiqi. 2016. “Reconciling after civil conflictincreasessocialcapitalbutdecreasesindividualwellbeing”Science(PaperandAppendix).

Casey, Katherine, Rachel Glennerster and Edward Miguel. 2017. “Reshaping Institutions:EvidenceonAidImpactsusingaPre-AnalysisPlan.”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics

Papersforstudentpresentations

Paluck,E.L.(2009).Reducingintergroupprejudiceandconflictusingthemedia:AfieldexperimentinRwanda.JournalofPersonalityandSocialPsychology,96,574-587.

Jha, Saumitra and Moses Shayo. 2016. Valuing Peace: The Effects of Stock MarketExposureonVotesandPoliticalAttitudes,StanfordGSBWorkingPaper.

10. March9th-TheEconomicConsequencesofConflict

Abadie,A.andJ.Gardeazabal(2003)."TheEconomicCostsofConflict:ACaseStudyoftheBasqueCountry."AmericanEconomicReview93(1):113-132.

Miguel,TedandGerardRoland.2011.TheLongRunImpactofBombingVietnam.JournalofDevelopmentEconomics

Lind,JoThori,KarlOveMoene,andFredrikWillmusen.2014.OpiumfortheMasses?Conflict-inducednarcoticsproductioninAfghanistan.ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics.

Guidolin,MassimoandElianaLaFerrara.2007.DiamondsAreForever,WarsAreNot:IsConflictBadforPrivateFirms?AmericanEconomicReview97(5):1978-1993.

Forstudentpresentations:

Dube,Arindrajit,EthanKaplanandSureshNaidu.2011.“Coups,Corporations,andClassifiedInformation.”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics.

Leon,Gianmarco,2012.CivilConflictandHumanCapitalAccumulation:LongTermConsequencesofPoliticalViolenceinPerúJournalofHumanResources,Vol.47(4):991-1023.