confocal microscopy and striated tool marks: a statistical study and
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Confocal Microscopy and Striated Tool Marks: A Statistical Study and Potential Software Tools For Practitioners. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Confocal Microscopy and Striated Tool Marks: A Statistical Study and
Potential Software Tools For Practitioners
3 2 1 0 1 2 3
Carol Gambino, Patrick McLaughlin, Loretta Kuo, Peter Diaczuk, Gerard Petillo, Frani Kammerman, Lauren Claytor, Peter Shenkin, Nicholas
Petraco, James Hamby and Nicholas D. K. Petraco
Outline• Introduction
• Details of Our Approach• Data acquisition• Confocal Microscopy for Surfaces
• Surface/Profile Pre-processing
• Results of Statistical Discrimination/Error Rate Estimates for Primer Shears
• Suggested Operating Guidelines
Introduction• DNA profiling the most successful application of
statistics in forensic science.• Responsible for current interest in “raising standards” of
other branches in forensics…??
• No protocols for the application of statistics to comparison of tool marks.• Our goal: application of objective, numerical pattern
comparison to tool marks
Caution: Statistics is not a panacea!!!!
• All impressions made by tools and firearms can be viewed as numerical patterns– Machine learning trains a computer to recognize
patterns • Can give “…the quantitative difference between an
identification and non-identification”Moran • Can yield identification error rate estimates
Background Information
• Obtain striation/impression patterns from 3D confocal microscopy
• Store files in ever expanding database• Data acquisition is labor
intensive and time consuming
• Data files will be made available to practitioner community through web interface
Data Acquisition
Five Consecutively Manufactured Chisels
Lead impression media
Striation patterns generated at 32o
70 striation patterns total:• 20 for traditional comparison• 50 for confocal microscopy
G. Petillo
G. Petillo
Craftsman Screwdrivers
Striation patterns in lead
Striation patterns in wax
Experimental Research Design
Experimental Research Design
• Software can detect edges of significant “lines”:
• Or software can turn any profile into a “barcode”:
profile
barcode
Experimental Research Design
Website
• 3D surfaces– ImageJ visualization
• 2D and 3D
– ImageJ measurements
• R scripts/programs for statistical analysis
• Preprints of papers
Downloadable
• Form removal
• Register and optionally shift skewed profiles
• Use max CCF
• Optional filter surface into waviness and roughness components
• Cubic spline filter:
• Striation pattern processing: Hamby 4
Claytor 1
• Statistical pattern comparison!
• Modern algorithms are called machine learning
• Idea is to measure features that characterize physical evidence
• Train algorithm to recognize “major” differences between groups of featureswhile taking into account
natural variation and measurement error.
What Statistics Can Be Used?
• Primer shears (82-91 profiles)– PCA-SVM, CPT at the 95% level of confidence
• Empirical error rate was 4.7%• No “uninformative” intervals were returned
– PCA-SVM, HOO-CV• Error rate estimate is 0.0%-4.4%, depending on the number of replicates
– PLS-DA, Bootstrap (>10 replicates only)• 95% confidence interval for error rate: [0%, 0%]
– PLS-DA, HOO-CV• Error rate estimate is 0.0%-4.3%, depending on the number of replicates
• Results so far are on par with expectations• More samples are being prepared for analysis
Primer Shear
Preliminary suggested operating guidelines• Visualization is MOST important
– Trained examiner assessment– 3D microscopy and visualization
• For statistical analysis:– # of replicates VERY important. – Train “machine learning method” on suspect tool and
tools producing “similar marks” (close in data space)• SVM, PLS-DA
– Get I.D. error rate estimates from various methods• Large test sets, bootstrap, cross-validation
– Classify an unknown form a crime scene• Use CPT for a level of confidence for the “association”
References• Biasotti AA. A statistical study of the individual characteristics of fired bullets. J Forensic Sci
1959;4(1):34-50.
• Efron B, Tibshirani RJ. An introduction to the bootstrap. 1st ed. Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC, 1993.
• Geradts Z, Keijzer J, Keereweer I. A new approach to automatic comparison of striation marks. J Forensic Sci 1994;39(4):974-80.
• AFTE. Theory of Identification as it Relates to Toolmarks. AFTE J. 1998;30(1):89-8.
• Moran B. A report on the AFTE theory of identification and range of conclusions for tool mark identification and resulting approaches to casework. AFTE J 2002;34(2):227-35.
• Vovk V, Gammerman A, Shafer G. Algorithmic learning in a random world. 1 ed. New York: Springer, 2005.
• Neel M, Wells M. A comprehensive statistical analysis of striated tool mark examinations. Part 1: Comparing known matches to known non -matches. AFTE J 2007;39(3):176-98.
• Gammerman A, Vovk V. Hedging predictions in machine learning. The Computer J 2007;50(7):151-77.
References• Schafer G, Vovk V. A tutorial on conformal prediction. J Machine Learning Research 2008;9:371-
421.
• Howitt D, Tulleners F, Cebra K, Chen S. A calculation of the theoretical significance of matched bullets. J Forensic Sci 2008;53(4):868-75.
• Chumbley LS, Morris MD, Kreiser MJ, Fisher C, Craft J, Genalo LJ Davis S, Faden D, Kidd J. 2010. Validation of Tool Mark Comparisons Obtained Using a Quantitative, Comparative, Statistical Algorithm. J Forensic Sci 2010;55(4):953-961.
• Bachrach B, Jain A, Jung S, Koons RD. A statistical validation of the individuality and repeatability of striated tool marks: Screwdrivers and tongue and groove pliers. J Forensic Sci 2010;55(1):348-57.
• Chu W, Song J, Vorburger T, Yen J, Ballou S, Bachrach B. Pilot study of automated bullet signature identification based on topography measurements and correlations. J Forensic Sci 2010;55(2):341-7.
• Petraco N. Color Atlas of Forensic Toolmark Identification. 1st ed. Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2010.
• Petraco NDK, Shenkin P, Speir J, Diaczuk P, Pizzola PA, Gambino C, Petraco N. Addressing the National Academy of Sciences’ Challenge: A Method for Statistical Pattern Comparison of Striated Tool Marks. J Forensic Sci 2011, (accepted).
• Gambino C, McLaughlin P, Kuo L, Kammerman F, Shenkin P, Diaczuk P, Petraco N, Hamby J, Petraco NDK. Forensic Surface Metrology: Tool Mark Evidence. Scanning, 2011 (accepted).
Acknowledgements
• Research Team:
• Mr. Peter Diaczuk
• Ms. Carol Gambino
• Dr. James Hamby
• Dr. Thomas Kubic, Esq.
• Off. Patrick McLaughlin
• Mr. Jerry Petillo
• Mr. Nicholas Petraco
• Dr. Peter A. Pizzola
• Dr. Jacqueline Speir
• Dr. Peter Shenkin
• Mr. Peter Tytell
• National Institute of Justice
• New York City Police Department Crime Lab
• John Jay College of Criminal Justice
• Ms. Alison Hartwell, Esq.
• Ms. Lauren Claytor
• Helen Chan
• Manny Chaparro
• Aurora Ghita
• Eric Gosslin
• Frani Kammerman
• Brooke Kammrath
• Loretta Kuo
• Dale Purcel
• Stephanie Pollut
• Rebecca Smith
• Elizabeth Willie
• Chris Singh
• Melodie Yu
• Greg Frasier
Website Information and Reprints/Preprints: