Confronting prevailing myths about warnings and false alarms Lessons from the National Science Foundation Warning Project

Confronting prevailing myths about warnings and false alarms Lessons from the National Science Foundation Warning Project

Eve Gruntfest Summer WAS*IS 2008

Our 2003-2008 National Science Foundation project aimed toOur 2003-2008 National Science Foundation project aimed to

• Evaluate impacts of – Demographic

change– New & different sources of

information

• Test conventional wisdom about– False alarms/– close calls

Evaluate previous trauma experience & warning perceptions

What we know about warnings – Public response components

What we know about warnings – Public response components

• Hear/receive• Understand• Believe• Personalize• Decide to act• Respond

The warning process is complex

Warning project methodologyWarning project methodology

• Survey Development – 1 year– Input from officials & hazards researchers

• Survey format– Likert scale & true/false– Demographic questions– Experience with flash floods & trauma– Surveys in English & Spanish to selected

respondents

– Survey is available – for follow up studies

Mail survey

• 6000 surveys sent to residents in or near the floodplain

• Denver & Austin

• 1017 surveys returned

• Where do people get their weather information?

• Best way for officials to warn you about a flash flood?

All sources of weather information usedAll sources of weather information used

81%

44%

11% 9% 10%

1%

68%

42%

14%

4%

36%

75%

90%

5%

25%

75%

92%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Televi

sion

Enviro

nmen

tal c

ues

Local r

adio

sta

tions

The W

eath

er Chan

nel

Inte

rnet

NOAA wea

ther r

adio

Wea

ther

Bug

Other

Cell P

hone

Denver

Austin

n=935

Most important source of weather informationMost important source of weather information

46%

21%18%

6%2%

5%

49%

15%12% 12%

7% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Local T

V

Enviro

nmen

tal C

ues

Local R

adio

The W

eath

er C

hannel

NOAA Wea

ther

Rad

io

Inte

rnet

DenverAustin

N=945

Thinking about your most recent flash flood experience, where did you find out about the flash flood (in Austin)

Thinking about your most recent flash flood experience, where did you find out about the flash flood (in Austin)

n=519

66%

50%

38% 36% 34% 32%

12% 10%1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Local T

V

Enviro

nmen

tal C

ues

Local R

adio

Natio

nal W

eath

er S

ervi

ce

Family

/frie

nds

The W

eath

er C

hannel

Inte

rnet

NOAA Wea

ther

Rad

io

Offici

al P

hone C

all

A flash flood warning indicates a more serious threat than a flash flood watch

A flash flood warning indicates a more serious threat than a flash flood watch

n=1031

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Agree Disagree

I take flash flood warnings seriously I take flash flood warnings seriously

The best way for officials to warn you about a flash flood?The best way for officials to warn you about a flash flood?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sirens Phone TV Cometo door

Radio NOAAradio

Email Cellphone

2:30 am11:00 am5:00 pm

N=1020

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%AustinDenver

Would I drive through flooded roads? Would I drive through flooded roads?

Flash flood scenarioFlash flood scenario

• Driving in my mid-size car

• The water starts to rise rapidly

• Intersection with at least 18 inches of water

• Hear a National Weather Service flash flood warning on the radio

False alarm questions: Realizing it’s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls

False alarm questions: Realizing it’s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls

N= 1047

Austin by Gender Realizing it’s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls

Austin by Gender Realizing it’s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls

82%

18%

74%

26%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Agree Disagree

Male

Female

Officials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash floodingOfficials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash flooding

N = 1031

86%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Agree Disagree

Warning project limitationsWarning project limitations

• Expectations were too ambitious• Aimed to inform National Weather Service & emergency

managers specifically how to be more effective • Survey

• Sampling response• Demographic representation• Typical survey limitations –learning what people say, not

what they do

• Warning project publications: Environmental Hazards 2007 -- Vol 7

• C. Benight, E.Gruntfest, M. Hayden, L. Barnes Trauma and short-fuse weather warning perceptions

• S. Drobot C. Benight, E. Gruntfest Risk factors for driving into flooded roads

• M. Hayden, S. Drobot, S. Radil, C. Benight, E. Gruntfest, L. Barnes Information sources for flash flood warnings in Denver, CO and Austin, TX

• I.Ruin, J-C. Gaillard, C. Lutoff How to get there? Assessing motorists’ flash flood risk perception on daily itineraries

Warning project findings

•Weather information requirements of each user community are highly specialized

-needs vary according to time of life, time of day, range of responsibilities

•The weather research community has not focused on the individual needs of specific user communities

Behavioral survey project Observe driver’s behavior at low water crossings in Texas

Quantitative survey• Use of video• car counting

Qualitative survey• Use Youtube video, travels

log & in-depth interviews

http://70.253.207.10/view/index.shtml

Proposed new initiative D E L U G E

DELUGE network

Focus on post-event field studies for floods to maximize interactions between social scientists, hydrologists & meteorologists

New guidelines on post-event investigations for use by integrated teams of physical scientists, social scientists, & practitioners

Disasters: Evolving Lessons Using Global Experience

Challenge of confronting ads from car companies

How to convince people they are better Wet than Dead?

Ad says: Warning: use the cup holders at your own risk