confused and scared and deeply in denial
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Confused and Scared and Deeply in Denial. Improving climate change communication and facilitating social change. Susanne C. Moser, Ph.D. & Lisa Dilling, Ph.D. ESIG Coffee Talk, February 24, 2004. The Not-so-lucky Clover Leaf of Communicating Urgency, Need for Change. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Confused and Scared and Deeply in Denial
Improving climate change communication and facilitating social change
Susanne C. Moser, Ph.D. & Lisa Dilling, Ph.D.ESIG Coffee Talk, February 24, 2004
The Not-so-lucky Clover Leaf of Communicating Urgency, Need for Change
Complexity & time lag in climate system
Climate change no longer just
a science problem
Peopleperceive no
urgency
Societalstructuresand valuesresistant to
change
Whatnow?
The Difficult Character of Climate Change Global Complex system (with lags and thresholds) Defined and perceived as slow/gradual or as
occurring in the far future Difficult to detect Causes pervasive >> solutions challenging
(we have found the scapegoat and it is us) Impacts dispersed; not all bad; many
“creeping” phenomena Cumulative, synergistic Uncertainty pervasive Politically very controversial
Public Perceptions of Climate Change
~90% of American public aware of “global warming” For ~30% it is personally serious, urgent, worth
worrying about Still confusion about causes of global warming Global warming is inevitable and unfixable Related to irreversible deterioration of moral values Few know about solutions; most are (believed to be)
ineffective or irrelevant Few if any studies have looked at adaptation; climate
variability
“The typical global warming news story overwhelms and immobilizes people.” (Frameworks Institute 2003)
Societal Resistance to Change
Some examples… A power plant has a design life of 30+ years A dam is built to last for decades to 100 years Dominant economic paradigm and supporting
social structures last decades to centuries Values change at generational timescales
“The conditions that brought us climate change, as well as the conditions surrounding future options for dealing with it, are embedded in socioeconomic structures and value systems, embracing material advancement and fossil fuels – structures and values that are highly resistant to change.”
Trumbo and Shanahan, 2000
Confused and Scared and Deeply in Denial
OUTLINE1. The communication – social change
interface2. Communication needs3. Social change at all levels4. A bottom-up framework for
communication and social change5. Challenges and outcomes of
initial project
Why the Communication – Social Change Interface? What is not seen does not exist
Detection and naming of problem Public agenda setting
What is not understood is dismissed, denied, or polemically discussed Facilitation of informed public discourse about issue and
solutions How something is framed determines response
Influence on “issue culture” What is not talked about exerts no political pressure
Link between public discourse and political stage Without accessible solutions we will do nothing
Critical R&D, promotion>> Critical role for science/scientists
(educator, supporter, ally/adversary, engineer)
Climate Change Action & Communication Needs
Anticipatory, planned, strategic action
Actions taken by governments, public decision-makers, and business leaders
Legislation, regulation, incentives
Convincing causality, need for action recognized, need for probablistic climate information, for advance planning
Autonomous, reactive, instantaneous action
Actions taken by individuals, private decision-makers, agencies
Behavioral changes, administrative actions
Need for present-time weather or near-term climate information for response to extreme events, variability
PREVENTION, MITIGATION
(ADAPTATION)
ADAPTATION
(MITIGATION)
The Need for Tailored and Effective Communication
COMMUNICATING… What? How much? In what format? When? How often? To what end?
And most of all… To whom?
Social Change: Where to begin? Individuals? – all, specific ones Businesses? NGOs? Government?
International National State Local
Theories of Social Change: structure vs. agency – still…
IndividualsSmall
InformalCollectives
PrivateNot-for-Profits
PrivateBusinesses
Public Institutions
> > > > > Society at large < < < < <
•Theories of social (counter)movements (mobilization, opportunities, resources)•Diffusion of innovation theory
•Belief model•Deficit model •Theory of reasoned action•Stages of change model•Consumer information processing•Deliberative, inclusionary processes & procedures (e.g., social marketing) •Social learning theory
•Altruism, empathy, pro-social behavior models•Community organization theories (e.g., social network theory)
•Organizational change theories (e.g., stage theory)
•Rational actor paradigm•Qualitative choice theory•Diffusion of innovation theory
•Policy windows model•Regulatory approach•Advocacy coalition approach
A Bottom-Up Framework: Communication-Behavior Change Continuum
Unwieldy problem
MentalModels
Message Framing
MessengerChoice
CommunicationChannelChoice
MessageReception
BehaviorChangeSought
Identificationof
Barriers
Program Design &Planning
BehaviorChangeTools
Maintenance
Termination
Behavior Change
Communication
AudienceChoice
Challenges for Project/Workshop
Walking Our Talk Communicating across disciplinary boundaries Communicating across professional boundaries Raising awareness of climate impact and keeping it to a
minimum Theoretical Integration/Complementarity
Different disciplines Levels of social change
Maintaining credibility for academics and relevance for practitioners Balance of research and action agendas
Expected Outcomes of MacArthur Project
1. Edited volume and synthesis paper2. Research agenda
What aspects are we currently neglecting? Which do we overstate?
3. Action agenda What kinds of practical expertise
would be most useful to draw on? How do we hold the line between
research and advocacy?4. Proposal to NSF (HSD or Biocomplexity)
Explore communication/social change further in regional context (Northeast)
And useful lessons for NCAR…
“What is done with information is as important as the information itself.”
H. Jesse Smith (2004)
Workshop website: http://www.esig.ucar.edu/changeworkshop/index.html