connect, collaborate, change

Connect, Collaborate, ChangeOpportunities for Information and Communication Technology Opportunities for Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to support a new movement for a sustainable society(ICT) to support a new movement for a sustainable society

A discussion paper by Forum for the FutureA discussion paper by Forum for the Future

O2 is a leading communications company for consumers and

businesses in the UK, with over 22 million mobile customers and

over 700,000 fixed broadband customers, as at 30 June 2011.

Telefónica UK Limited is part of Telefónica Europe plc, a business

division of Telefónica S.A. which uses O2 as its commercial brand

in the UK, Ireland, Slovakia, Germany and the Czech Republic,

and has 57.3 million customers across these markets.

Think Big is O2’s sustainability programme. It is designed to

stimulate social and environmental change in partnership with

employees, customers and other stakeholders.

www.o2.co.uk/thinkbig

2

CONNECT, COLLABORATE, CHANGE

Forum for the Future is a non-profit organisation working

globally with business and government to create a sustainable

future. It aims to transform the critical systems that we all depend

on, such as food, energy and finance, to make them fit for the

challenges of the 21st century. Forum has 15 years’ experience

inspiring new thinking, building creative partnerships and

developing practical innovations to change our world.

The authors are James Taplin, Hugh Knowles and Sejal Mahida

at Forum for the Future.

Forum for the Future is a registered charity and a company limited by guarantee, registered in England and Wales.

Registered office: Overseas House, 19-23 Ironmonger Row, London, EC1V 3QN, UK.

Registered charity no. 1040519. Company no. 2959712. VAT registration no. 677 7475 70.

www.forumforthefuture.org

This report is part of O2’s series of sustainability discussions.

Our business ambition is to grow, but not at any cost. We have an equal responsibility to use our technology and scale to do more for society and the planet. And we are keen to discuss the benefits of technology wherever we can.

O2 commissioned Forum for the Future to review and refresh the current thinking on information and communication technology (ICT) as an enabler of sustainability and also highlight the areas of opportunity.

Our intention is to explore the themes raised in this report with industry peers, customers, suppliers, employees, NGOs, interest groups, government and other bodies.

We value your views and ideas. Please send comments to: [email protected]

CONTENTSINTRODUCTION 5

The challenge 5

Opportunity and risk 6

THE CARBON CONTEXT 7

REVIEWING THE RESEARCH 8

a) By type of impact 8

b) By area of impact 9

c) By sector of impact 9

GETTING BACK TO BASICS: A NEW ICT FRAMEWORK

11

Direct impacts 12

Indirect impactsIndirect impacts 12

Systemic effects 13

APPLYING THE FRAMEWORK 14

NEW OPPORTUNITIES 15

MAKING THE CASE FOR SYSTEMIC CHANGE

16

Redefining ownershipRedefining ownership 16

Rethinking financeRethinking finance 17

The data revolution andThe data revolution and 19 radical transparencyradical transparency

CONCLUSIONS 21

APPENDIX 22

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Our lifestyles today are ultimately unsustainable. Only through a radical shift

in how people’s needs are met across the planet can we hope to confront

the great challenges of our time such as: climate change; poverty; population

growth; and food and energy security.

Opportunities for information and communication technology (ICT) to promote intrinsic

change are many and diverse, but we need to know how and where to look for them.

Research thinking to date naturally tends to look at how ICT can help people do existing

things more efficiently, especially in large organisations and institutions. As a result, in

our view, insufficient focus has been placed on the power of ICT to:

• enable individuals to do things completely differently;

• harness the ingenuity of the connected millions to create change together;

• encourage systemic shifts in the way society operates.

ICT could be one of the most powerful enablers of transformation we possess, and

companies like O2 have potential to support just the kind of disruptive change needed.

They can do this by:

• providing people with the platforms to connect;

• taking good ideas to a scale that fundamentally alters the way we live.


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INTRODUCTIONTECHNOLOGY has always been a key driver of change. Today’s use of ICT, in particular, is causing profound shifts in the way we interact, both with each other, and with the everyday systems that underpin our lives. These include the mechanisms we use to generate and consume energy, to produce our food, to enable us to travel, or to provide us with homes. They are the building blocks of society.

Nowhere has this shift been more keenly felt than in the ubiquitous use of mobile. The roll-out

of mobile networks in sub-Saharan Africa, for example, has had a transformative impact on local

development, and on the ability of people to improve conditions for themselves. Here in the UK,

our ability to be informed in real-time about the world around us – and to pass on comment in

turn – is revolutionising the way we eat, shop, travel and receive services such as healthcare

and banking.

THE CHALLENGE

Sustainability is the challenge of the 21st century. It’s about living in a way that achieves our goals

and aspirations without affecting the ability of others to meet theirs – now and in the future.

There’s now little doubt that our western consumer lifestyles are threatening the future. The

combination of climate change, food and energy security and population growth require a radical

shift in how we meet the needs of all across the planet.

For example, to stand a good chance of avoiding 2 degrees of warming and the resulting climate

change, we must dramatically reduce our global carbon emissions. This means that reduction rates

of approximately 9% per year are needed by as soon as 2015.1

To meet these challenges we must find radical solutions – and fast.

ICT is already demonstrating that, with more information and connectivity, people can start to

do things differently. And in doing so, it has the power to generate and rapidly spread new ideas

that can positively disrupt the status quo. For example, a recent report by Gartner Group estimates

that the peer-to-peer financial-lending market will reach $5 billion by 2013.2 Rachel Botsman has

estimated that the consumer peer-to-peer rental market will become a $26 billion sector.3 Both of

these trends have been driven by developments in ICT.

1 Tyndall Centre: www.transitionculture.org/wp-content/uploads/kevin-anderson-2.ppt2 http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=12723133 What’s Mine is Yours: The rise of collaborative consumption http://www.rachelbotsman.com/book/

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OPPORTUNITY AND RISKOPPORTUNITY AND RISK

There are big opportunities to use ICT to create radical new approaches, but the sector

is still developing fast. So, as with all new frontiers, it’s important to be clear about both

the potential and the risks. Technology is not inherently sustainable after all, and its

deployment can incur significant costs in terms of resources, power and social inequality.

It can also create unintended knock-on effects.

However, since this report was primarily commissioned to look into the opportunities

that ICT presents, we will not be discussing the threats in any detail. Many of the direct

impacts such as e-waste, device accumulation or the rebound effect still require

considerable action to address them, but these are well documented elsewhere. Of

greater concern may be the relatively new or emerging issues that are currently less well

documented and which need urgent attention from the ICT industry. Some of these

risks such as net neutrality, over consumption online, privacy, exclusion and access to ICT

as a human right, could cause systemic change and we welcome further discussion on

these topics.

A number of authoritative reports have started to look at the benefits of ICT for

sustainability, as well as the scale of the potential savings that could be made. We have

used some of these as the foundation for our framework and to provide an overview

of current opinion. We have then applied our own thinking in the areas of systems

innovation,4 future trends and weak signals5 to highlight additional impacts and

opportunities.

We hope to establish that ICT can promote real systemic change. Rather than only

looking at how technology can improve transport systems, for example, we want to

explore how it can change the way we live and work, so that transport needs are vastly

reduced or removed altogether.

Thanks to the excellent work that has gone before, we are by no means starting from

scratch. The potential for change is discussed in earlier research.6 We aim to build on

that, by focusing on new and emerging trends that can inspire change on a scale that’s

commensurate with the challenges we face.

4 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/blog/what-system-innovation5 Refers to new behaviours or emerging technologies that are yet to become mainstream6 For example, SMART 2020 – published by the Global e-Sustainability Initiative and The Climate Group in 2008: see ‘Transform’ section at:

www.smart2020.org/_assets/files/02_Smart2020Report.pdf 6

CONNECT, COLLABORATE, CHANGECONNECT, COLLABORATE, CHANGE

THE CARBON CONTEXTOne of ICT’s most frequently cited sustainability benefits is the role it can play in cutting the carbon emissions that contribute to climate change.

Switching a physical activity for a digital one offers great scope for removing the need for

carbon-intensive travel, for example. And ICT’s ability to process complex data to help humans,

or machines, make intelligent decisions can further increase efficiency.

But ICT itself is not without negative sustainability impacts. Its use of energy in particular is a

source of concern and questions remain about whether savings across society might be negated

by the carbon cost of ICT’s manufacture and delivery.

There is no definitive answer yet. ICT operators have generally been poor at clearly demonstrating

their full carbon budgets and few, if any, can yet demonstrate that an x% rise in the carbon they

emit results in a y% fall in emissions across society.

Various reports try to predict ICT’s future carbon balance. Among the most comprehensive is

Smart 2020, published by The Climate Group for the Global e-Sustainability Initiative in 2008.

This calculates that although ICT emissions will grow to 1.43 GtCO2e7 by 2020, the growth will be

offset by society-wide reductions of five times greater (7.8 GtCO2e).

Not everyone agrees with these figures, and some have voiced concerns that the ICT sector is

developing without due regard to its own energy efficiency, thus threatening to become part

of the problem. They argue that the actual future carbon savings will be significantly smaller.

Nevertheless, Smart 2020 is often still considered to be a solid benchmark on this subject, and is

most regularly quoted by the industry itself. In reality, however, any haggling over relative projected

savings is probably futile, given the uncertainties about the future and the assumptions we need

to make to overcome them. In particular, we hope that the application of ICT in entirely new and

unpredictable ways means that future opportunities will far exceed anything that can be estimated

and extrapolated from where we are now.

So, while the Smart 2020 findings are as solid and robust as any, future carbon savings will

depend on things that we can easily predict, like the intelligent design and application of

equipment, and on factors we can’t, like the sheer speed and direction of technology change.

Add to that the human element – how people are likely to behave in future – and forecasting

becomes more difficult still.

Not surprisingly then, the standard research paradigm frequently remains how ICT can make

existing operations more efficient. In order to provide credible numbers, most reports rightly focus

on the areas of society where predictions are increasingly certain. They look at the potential carbon

savings predominantly from ‘top-down’ business and policy interventions, or machine-to-machine

exchanges. And whilst this approach undoubtedly focuses on areas where big carbon savings need

to be made, the role of peer-to-peer human interaction in shaping the future is far less clear.

Most studies therefore omit one of the most unpredictable but potentially disruptive trends we see

– the huge opportunities for change that come when exponential numbers of people use ICT to do

things entirely differently, thus causing systemic shifts in how we meet human needs.

7 Gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents: a measure of the total climate change impact of an operation which takes into account all global warming impacts from all emissions and converts them into a standard Carbon Dioxide measure. 7

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REVIEWING THE RESEARCH There are almost as many ways to classify the opportunities for ICT as there are reports on the subject. This makes it understandably difficult for an organisation to clearly identify how and where ICT can be applied for maximum sustainability gain.

Most recent reports agree on the broad areas where ICT interventions could do the most good,

but there is no overall consistency within their findings on which to base decision-making: hardly

surprising, given the complexity of the sector, the almost limitless possibilities and the speed at

which ICT is evolving.

Consequently, reports tend to classify ICT and its sustainability potential on a more manageable

subset of indicators, generally using one or more of the following:

a) type of impact (direct or indirect)

b) area of impact (carbon, for example)

c) systems impacts (change that can be achieved within, say, buildings and transport systems, or

through the smart grid and dematerialisation8)

a) BY TYPE OF IMPACT

Some of the earliest reports use a three-pronged framework to describe, in varying terminologies,

the type of impact ICT has on society. Broadly, they are:

• Direct impacts – also known as ‘Making IT’, ‘first order’ or ‘primary effects’. These are the

social and environmental effects that ICT devices and services create during their lifecycle –

including the materials and energy used in production, the impact of use, disposal, and so on.

• Indirect impacts – also known as ‘Using IT’, ‘second order’ or ‘secondary effects’. These are the

effects of applying ICT to other processes (such as to the production of goods or to transport

systems, for example).

• Systemic impacts – also known as ‘Applying IT’, ‘third order’ or ‘tertiary effects’. These refer to

the longer-term adaptation of economic structures and consumer behaviour, made possible by

ICT and its services.

The advantage of this modus operandi is that it covers all technology and can be applied to all

areas of sustainability opportunity (rather than just carbon, for instance). It also gives an

indication of the relative ease of implementation and the magnitude of impact within each type

of ICT activity. In general terms, it gets harder to instigate initiatives when moving from Direct to

Indirect impacts, and onto Systemic actions, but the sustainable impact gained increases

dramatically as you do so.

But the methodology has limitations too. The possibilities for ICT interventions in society are so vast

that researchers find it useful to divide them into manageable chunks. As a result, most analyses

tend to focus only on one impact (usually carbon, or similar), and on some discrete areas of impact

(for example transport, work and energy).

8 The move from a physical activity to an electronic alternative

B) BY AREA OF IMPACT C) BY SYSTEMS IMPACTS

The ICT sector is responsible for 2%-3% of global carbon emissions: its direct impact.

Focusing attention here is vital, because operators have the power to manage their

absolute impact down.

Clearly, though, there are much bigger potential gains to be made if ICT can be used to

significantly reduce the remaining 97%-98%, via the indirect and systemic impact it can

have on society.

It’s on this area – the role of ICT to change the global carbon budget by reducing more

emissions than it produces – that most reports concentrate.

Where studies diverge, however, is in how they try to classify the opportunities. Table 1

(below) looks at seven recent studies, drawn from the ICT business, NGOs and analysts.

Table 1: Classification of ICT sustainability opportunities in a number of recent

representative reports

Report

Broad categories of impact area

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Saving the climate at the speed of light9 X X X

Smart 202010 X X X X X X

Impacts of ICTs on Energy Efficiency11 X X X X X

Carbon Connections12 X X X X X

Reducing GHGs through intense use of ICT13 X X X X X X

Using ICTs to tackle Climate Change14 X X X X X X X

Make IT Green15 X X X X X

Our table shows that none of the findings precisely match, so extrapolating a set of

guiding principles to help shape future action is somewhat challenging.16

9

99 WWF & ETNO, (2005). Saving the Climate @ the speed of light – First roadmap for reduced CO2 emissions in the EU and beyond (WWF & ETNO, (2005). Saving the Climate @ the speed of light – First roadmap for reduced CO2 emissions in the EU and beyond (http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/ict/))

1010 The Climate Group on behalf of the Global eSustainability Initiative (2008) Smart2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age The Climate Group on behalf of the Global eSustainability Initiative (2008) Smart2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age ((www.smart2020.org/))

1111 bio Intelligence Service (2008) Impacts of Information and Communication Technologies on Energy Efficiency – final report to the European bio Intelligence Service (2008) Impacts of Information and Communication Technologies on Energy Efficiency – final report to the European Commission DG INFSO (Commission DG INFSO (www.ifap.ru/library/book373.pdf))

1212 Vodafone & Accenture (2009) Carbon Connections: Quantifying mobile’s role in tackling climate change (Vodafone & Accenture (2009) Carbon Connections: Quantifying mobile’s role in tackling climate change (www.vodafone.com/content/dam/vodafone/about/sustainability/2011/pdf/carbon_connections.pdf))

1313 IDC (2009) Reducing Greenhouse. IDC (2009) Reducing Greenhouse Gases Through Intense Use of Information and Communication Technology IDC (2009) Reducing Greenhouse. IDC (2009) Reducing Greenhouse Gases Through Intense Use of Information and Communication Technology ((http://download.intel.com/pressroom/archive/reference/IDCWP31R.pdf))

1414 International Telecommunication Union (ITU) & Global eSustainability Initiative (2010) Using ICTs to Tackle Climate Change (International Telecommunication Union (ITU) & Global eSustainability Initiative (2010) Using ICTs to Tackle Climate Change (www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-t/oth/4B/01/T4B010000010001PDFE.pdf))

1515 Greenpeace International (2010) Make IT Green: Cloud computing and its contribution to climate change (Greenpeace International (2010) Make IT Green: Cloud computing and its contribution to climate change (www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/reports/make-it-green-cloud-computing/))

1616 It should be noted, however, that the classifications of opportunity are our own, based on the areas of impact that each report identifies. It should be noted, however, that the classifications of opportunity are our own, based on the areas of impact that each report identifies. It would be possible for other commentators to reclassify them, but the findings would be the same: there is still insufficient commonality It would be possible for other commentators to reclassify them, but the findings would be the same: there is still insufficient commonality between them to guide action.between them to guide action.

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One commonly identified opportunity is dematerialisation, found in all of the reports in Table 1. But

even here, different prospects are identified by different reports (Table 2).

Table 2: Elements of dematerialisation opportunities in a number of recent

representative reports

Report

Broad categories of impact area within dematerialisationV

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Saving the climate at the speed of light X X X X X X X

Smart 2020 X X X X X X

Impacts of ICTs on Energy Efficiency X X X X

Carbon Connections X X X X

Reducing GHGs through intense use of ICT X X X

Using ICTs to tackle Climate Change X X X

Make IT Green X X X X X X

The table also reveals that – for simplicity – reports tend to include a mix of technologies

(videoconference, hardware virtualisation); many types of implementation (e-billing, mobile office,

e-commerce, route planning); and several types of sector (e-Government, e-Health, e-Education).

The difficulty for those who want to use ICT for sustainability is the lack of a common approach.

What is needed, we believe, is a simple framework that enables us to more clearly identify future

opportunities and risks, and more readily pinpoint where action is likely to lead to most gain.


10

DIRECTMaking – IT1st OrderPrimary

INDIRECTUsing – IT 2nd Order Secondary

SYSTEMICApplying – IT 3rd Order Tertiary

ICT Equipment

Information & Analysis Communicate

CollaborateConnectEducateData as product

SimplifyOptimise

Predict Automate

Integrated Systems and New Cultural Norms

GETTING BACK TO BASICS: A NEW ICT FRAMEWORKTo better spot opportunities for ICT, we need to return to basics. In doing so, it becomes easier to establish where ICT can achieve the biggest sustainability gains by enabling entire system change (in energy and finance, for example).

Our framework in diagram 1 (below) attempts this. It charts the essential functions of ICT

equipment and maps the basic uses and applications they support.

Diagram 1

88 ICT may have a role to play in the three remaining fundamental needs – freedom, subsistence and protection – but less clearly than for the ICT may have a role to play in the three remaining fundamental needs – freedom, subsistence and protection – but less clearly than for the other six.other six. 11

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DIRECT IMPACTS

ICT equipment has a direct impact on wider society, stretching from the supply chain to end-of-

life. Impacts include raw materials (sourcing, toxicity, supply chain management); energy (in

manufacturing, logistics and device use); and disposal (recycling and e-waste).

INDIRECT IMPACTS

ICT is, of course, the acronym for Information and Communication Technology. The ‘Technology’

part comes under direct impacts. The ‘Information and Communication’ part forms the two main

uses of ICT (see diagram 1). These are responsible for the indirect impact that ICT has on society

and, in order to distinguish between them, we’ve termed them a) ‘Information and Analysis’, and

b) ‘Communicate’.

a) Information and analysis

This is the area of ICT that has data at its heart.

On the one hand, data can be a product in its own right – a digital substitute for physical goods,

such as music or photographs.

On the other, it can be used for computational analysis, predominantly by machines, and is the

branch of ICT where machine-to-machine (M2M) activities take place. When humans do get

involved they are presented with data on which to act, such as when drivers are presented with

real-time traffic information so as to avoid congestion and make better routing decisions.

Information and analysis is used for two inter-related purposes: a) to simplify complex data and

b) to optimise decision-making by assessing a range of variables in order to predict the best or

most efficient next course of action. The financial industry has been using these ICT skills to

trade more rapidly for decades, and businesses increasingly employ optimising software to look

for efficiencies.

b) Communicate

This category refers to person-to-person (P2P) communication. We’ve split it into three main

areas: education; connection; and collaboration.

Education is essentially the one-way flow of communication. It includes the sharing of

information from many sources to a single recipient (such as an individual gaining expert

knowledge from the internet), or from one source to many recipients (such as e-learning, when

a teacher informs a number of pupils over a wide geography).

Collaboration involves the two-way flow of information and ideas. It is supported by technology,

such as video-conferencing, and can be used to find innovative new ways of doing things, to share

goods and services, and to bring people together around a common cause.

Connect recognises that – aside from aspiring to be educated or involved with others

collaboratively – people always need to keep in touch. A whole raft of human needs is satisfied

by making simple connections. Chilean economist Manfred Max Neef identified nine fundamental

human needs, some of which – like understanding, creation and participation – are met by

education and/or collaboration tools. Others – such as identify, leisure and affection – fall within

our Connect17 category.

17 ICT also has a role to play in the three remaining fundamental needs – freedom, subsistence and protection – but less clearly than for the other six.

HEALTH Sharing of data in hospitalsPreventative measure

e.g. exercise and fitness

Indirect/2nd Order (INCREMENTAL)

Systemic/3rd Order (BEHAVIOUR CHANGE)

TRANSPORTBetter logistics/more

efficient enginesEnabling car sharing or

rural work hubs

SYSTEMIC EFFECTS

Systemic change can occur when technologies are taken to such a scale they transform

social systems. Bearing this in mind, it may seem a little misleading that our framework

clearly separates systemic effects from indirect impacts, when the two can in reality be

viewed as a continuum. We have opted to make this distinction because not all indirect

impacts can scale-up to create systemic change. Conversely, systemic change can also

occur when a technology facilitates a change that was not its primary purpose.18

We’ve chosen two main types of systemic change: ‘integrated systems’ and ‘new

cultural norms’.

Integrated systems emerge when ICT is applied to one or more sectors of society to

optimise and/or simplify a process. One example is the smart grid of the future, which will

use dynamic technology to predict the actions of users connected to it through transport

and infrastructure systems to deliver more reliable, economic and sustainable electricity.

New cultural norms occur when a technology or idea has reached such a saturation point

that it fundamentally shifts the way people behave. One example is the music industry,

which has been radically transformed by the consumption and sharing of digital media.

Another is the emergence of collaborative consumption in which the benefits of ‘stuff’

(cars, handbags, drills and so on) are available to the many, without having to be owned

outright by individuals.

Diagram 2 shows the difference between indirect and systemic impacts on our health and

transport systems. It also flags up the enabling potential of technology applications.

Diagram 2Diagram 2

131818 Mobile banking is a good example. See the case study to follow.Mobile banking is a good example. See the case study to follow.

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APPLYING THE FRAMEWORK APPLYING THE FRAMEWORK We hope our framework serves as a tool for action as well as a stimulus for fresh thinking about where interventions can successfully be made.

At a macro level, it can be used to look for interventions that can be made in a specific sector – by

identifying blockages to more sustainable transport, for example. In this way, it can help to answer

questions like: what simplified information do people need to make better transport choices; which public

services need to make these choices more attractive; and how can ICT deliver this in the right way and at

the right time?

Equally, since a lot of transport is undertaken not for the journey’s sake, but to connect, collaborate or

educate, how can ICT better fulfil these needs? Maybe you know the answers to these questions already,

but what about if you apply similar questions to the finance sector, or food, or construction?

Alternatively, at a micro level, an ICT business, device or technology could be placed in the ‘Direct ICT

Equipment’ position at the top of our framework to help people assess their operations and total impacts.

Are they pursuing all potential sustainability avenues, or are there additional directions that they could

take? How and where could they filter the sustainability benefits of their business down to the indirect

levels? Finally, it may also be possible to start at the bottom by identifying a powerful systemic change and

work upwards through the framework to understand what ICT interventions and equipment is needed to

deliver it.

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DIRECTMaking – IT1st OrderPrimary

INDIRECTUsing – IT 2nd Order Secondary

SYSTEMICApplying – IT 3rd Order Tertiary

ICT Equipment

Smart Grid

Integrated Systems and New Cultural Norms

Efficient ICT Equipment

Cradle to Cradlee-Waste

Management

Information & Analysis Communicate

Smart Logistics

Smart Cities

Smart Buildings

Dematerialisation

Remote Sensing & Monitoring

Smart Motors

OptimiseData as product

Simplify Educate CollaborateConnect

Predict Automate

NEW OPPORTUNITIES Diagram 3: mapping other analyses into our framework

Diagram 3 includes (in red) the general areas of current focus for sustainable ICT. As we

have noted, different assessors use different parameters to describe potential

sustainability wins, but our diagram represents their core positions (see Appendix).

For instance, most of the ‘Smart’-suite of potential interventions involve optimising

sustainability performance using multiple data sources (e.g. vehicles for smarter logistics,

or homes and cars for smarter grids). Some smart solutions involve simplifying

information as well, so that humans can more easily interact with systems (such as

smart buildings), but many operate without human control.

Dematerialisation solutions, on the other hand, are often about creating opportunities

for people (individuals or institutions) to communicate better, either through peer-to-

peer collaboration (virtual meetings), or via education (government-to-people, company-

to-client).

As discussed earlier, while most sustainability initiatives currently sit within indirect impacts,

there is scope for some, or all, to cause systemic change if taken to scale across society.

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MAKING THE CASE FOR SYSTEMIC CHANGE We have selected three areas of activity to demonstrate how technology applications can change systems for the better. While our choices – ownership, finance and data – are subjective, they help to highlight some of the most interesting emerging trends.

REDEFINING OWNERSHIP

It’s no longer necessary for anyone undertaking a DIY project or wanting to do the weekly shop to

physically own their own drill or car. Use of technology to keep track of where things are located

means that, increasingly, we can find the services we need, establish the cost of rental, and hire

them for a period of time at a touch of a button.

Collaborative consumption helps people gain the value of using what they require without the

need to buy it. It also avoids waste of raw materials and the energy used to manufacture products

that would otherwise sit idle for much of their life (for example, legend suggests that the average

drill is used for only 12 minutes in its entire lifetime).

A widespread shift away from individual ownership has profound implications for the consumption

of resources by society. It also presents opportunities for a new, more sustainable relationship

between producers and consumers, based on buying a service (such as entertainment) rather

than a product (such as a TV).

Case studies

Barclays Cycle Hire is a public bicycle sharing scheme, which supports around 12,000 sustainable

journeys a day in London. It uses ICT to operate, and several mobile phone applications have been

developed to inform users about the locations and availability of bikes. It isn’t aimed at making

existing transport options more efficient, but at providing an entirely new transport system.

Neighborgoods9 is a national online platform that uses geo-location tools to enable people to

share a variety of goods, such as garden tools and sewing machines.

For more examples of collaborative consumption, visit http://www.collaborativeconsumption.com/

the-movement/snapshot-of-examples.php

9 www.neighborgoods.net

RETHINKING FINANCE

The fi nancial sector’s recent woes can partly be levelled at misuse of ICT. New fi nancial

practices that divest responsibility away from the individual and onto sophisticated

trading algorithms, or complex derivatives, would not have been possible without the

extraordinary number-crunching powers of ICT. But this is not a fl aw pertaining to ICT

itself: the fl aw is in its application.

For example, the same rapid calculation capabilities are being used to revolutionise the

way people access money. New services can now help people across the world, especially

the disadvantaged, gain fi nance that had previously been denied to them.

Microlending is a prime example. The system allows anyone to lend small amounts of

money to others who need it – at benefi cial rates to both. With a sophisticated ICT

platform managing the transactions, risks to microlenders are removed and risks to the

system as a whole are minimised. For example, two of the most established platforms –

Kiva and Zopa – have default rates of 1.1% and 0.8% respectively, considerably lower

than mainstream banking.

Microlending still requires the input of a third party to act as intermediary. But ICT can

enable people to send money to one other directly. mPesa in Kenya has pioneered a

truly systemic revolution in the way people handle money, by allowing individuals to

transfer money from one mobile phone to another. The physical journeys involved in

transferring cash to remote parts of the country are removed. And in many areas, mPesa

serves as a currency in its own right, eliminating the need to carry cash by facilitating

money transfer by mobile at point of purchase. A scheme recently launched through a

collaboration between Moneygram and Movistar Remesas similarly allows the

international transfer of funds that is supported and facilitated by mobile networks.

The ability of ICT to bring people together in peer-to-peer systems that better serve their

collective needs is, therefore, compelling – and it is likely to drive many more systemic

changes, we believe.

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Case studies

Kickstarter is an online ‘crowdfunding’ platform that uses a threshold pledge system:

only when projects reach their funding target do they receive money. The platform takes

5% of the funds raised. Kickstarter raised US$75 million for over 10,000 projects between

April 200920 and late 2011 and several businesses used the scheme for initial funding.

Similar crowdfunding schemes have since been established, allowing people to invest

small sums at low risk in projects that inspire them, often for no financial return.

Peoplefund.it is similar to Kickstarter, but it focuses on getting sustainable projects

off the ground. Its aim is to become the platform for sustainability experiments.

Launched in November 2011, it had attracted more than £40K in pledges to great ideas

in its first week.

Bank Simple21 is a ‘personal banking alternative from a company that respects you’, built

from scratch using latest mobile phone technology.22 Irritated by bad design and surprise

fees, the founders are working to deliver a new, simpler banking concept that helps

people to manage their money, and to save and spend conveniently at less cost.

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20 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter21 banksimple.com22 http://www.fastcodesign.com/1665303/first-look-at-banksimples-iphone-app


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THE DATA REVOLUTION AND RADICAL TRANSPARENCY

There is huge potential to collect, analyse and communicate data in a way that helps to transform

critical systems, we believe. Our understanding of climate change, for example, has largely been

shaped by ICT’s analysis of complex data on a global scale.

More and more people are gaining access to a whole raft of information concerning their everyday

lives, as well as the tools to analyse it intelligently. With knowledge comes power, and the result is

a proliferation of initiatives that put the power to create change in everyone’s hands – thanks, in

many cases, to the mobile web.

Linked inextricably to the data revolution is the trend towards radical transparency. Access to

real-time information, coupled with peer-to-peer communication such as referrals and advice,

makes it now possible to know anything about everything at any particular time. This has multiple

and profound implications.

Take, for example, the Arab Spring uprisings. Their speed and success can partly be attributed to

the use of social networking to stay abreast of complex developments as they emerged. Clearly,

ICT has the power to help accelerate radical social change.

In everyday life, the use of smartphones, the mobile internet and applications like barcoo give

consumers greater knowledge – not only about what their community thinks is good or bad about

a particular product or purchase, but also where they can get it cheapest, or what they could buy

instead (see case studies below).

The impact on businesses is that it has become increasingly difficult to hide, control information

about brands, or cover up any (real or imagined) skeletons in the corporate closet. Naturally, the

tendency for progressive companies is to embrace this trend by becoming more open about their

impacts and publicly setting out plans to improve.

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barcoobarcoo is a mobile phone-enabled scanner system which informs consumers about the products is a mobile phone-enabled scanner system which informs consumers about the products

they wish to buy, the sustainability credentials of the manufacturer, and where to buy the product they wish to buy, the sustainability credentials of the manufacturer, and where to buy the product

at the cheapest price. It then allows users to share their knowledge with friends and family. at the cheapest price. It then allows users to share their knowledge with friends and family.

OPOWEROPOWER uses a digital platform to reinvent the way utilities companies interact with customers. uses a digital platform to reinvent the way utilities companies interact with customers.

Built on a sustainability promise, it gives utilities providers the technology to simplify information Built on a sustainability promise, it gives utilities providers the technology to simplify information

about household energy use and to show people how to make savings. OPOWER aims to be the about household energy use and to show people how to make savings. OPOWER aims to be the

‘new normal’ for energy purchasing by creating a trusted community of consumers who use ‘new normal’ for energy purchasing by creating a trusted community of consumers who use

energy more efficiently and economically.

THE CARBON DISCLOSURE PROJECTTHE CARBON DISCLOSURE PROJECT is an ICT-based platform designed to encourage is an ICT-based platform designed to encourage

corporations to become more transparent about their carbon budgets. Part of the trend towards corporations to become more transparent about their carbon budgets. Part of the trend towards

open governance, it enables investors to add listed companies’ carbon credentials to their open governance, it enables investors to add listed companies’ carbon credentials to their

deliberations when making investment decisions.deliberations when making investment decisions.

Fishing with 3G networksFishing with 3G networks is a Brazilian initiative run through the Vivo 3G network. It uses is a Brazilian initiative run through the Vivo 3G network. It uses

data to help bring economic development to small-scale fishing communities whilst enhancing data to help bring economic development to small-scale fishing communities whilst enhancing

the sustainability of the fish stocks that they depend on at the same time. Fishermen provide daily the sustainability of the fish stocks that they depend on at the same time. Fishermen provide daily

data on the number and species of fish caught, and can then sell their catch directly to customers data on the number and species of fish caught, and can then sell their catch directly to customers

through an online market. This data is also used by government agencies to inform their through an online market. This data is also used by government agencies to inform their

sustainability programmes, and can be used to monitor fish stocks and water quality. The system sustainability programmes, and can be used to monitor fish stocks and water quality. The system

can then direct boats away from over-exploited areas, and into sustainable fishing grounds that can then direct boats away from over-exploited areas, and into sustainable fishing grounds that

can provide a better catch and hence an improvement of family income.can provide a better catch and hence an improvement of family income.


20

CONCLUSIONSGiven today’s critical sustainability challenges, we must urgently look for disruptive ideas and solutions that could rise to the challenges we face.

ICT has potential to support and sustain the kinds of disruptive ideas and solutions that could rise

to the challenges we face. The opportunities are limited only by imagination.

We have applied a framework that looks at direct, indirect and systemic impacts to help review

opportunities for ICT to deliver such change. Our approach also helps to highlight where the

benefits might be greatest, and flags the risks that require far more attention.

One of greatest areas of potential is for ICT to create new behaviours or systems, rather than

simply alter current ways of doing things. Take, for example, different models of ownership

described in this report, specifically the adoption of car-sharing to reduce congestion as opposed

to traffic management applications. ICT makes disruptive change such as this not only far easier

but something that people desire, thanks to a shift in culture norms. In this example, a new

generation of consumers is less concerned about car ownership, in part because ICT offers easy

access to sharing schemes. It also helps to spread the word and reinforce the shift.

Disruptive change ultimately comes when people are inspired to do things differently. As a

platform from which to experiment, ICT has the ability to drive good ideas. It enables people to

test and grow initiatives with relatively little infrastructure and allows rapid learning without huge

resource or cost. Indeed, the more approaches we try and share, the more likely we are to succeed.

Our focus differs from the other reports reviewed, which generally assume that carbon savings

come mostly from improving infrastructure and doing business more efficiently. Instead, we feel

that more should be made of how ICT can help individuals across the globe to connect, share

ideas, adopt different approaches and act collectively to improve society.

One of the main precursors to systemic change is achieving the widespread connections and

collaboration needed to take disruptive change to a scale where it becomes the ‘new normal’.

Communication Companies are well placed to do this.

As devices gain functionality and mobile technology reaches a greater proportion of the planet’s

population, ICT companies have a unique opportunity to help people collaborate – and to harness

the ideas and ingenuity of millions at the same time.

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APPENDIX A summary of the sustainability initiatives identified in the reports we reviewed, together with our classifications of the

basic impact areas of each.

1) Saving the climate at the speed of light1

Impact area


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A new and more efficient meeting culture: Travel replacementExample: Videoconference, Audio-conference, Other areas – e.g. tele-education & tele-health

X

Sustainable consumption: Dematerialisation Example: Virtual answering machine, Online phone billing, Web-taxation, Other areas – e.g. e-paper & digital film

X

Sustainable Community / City planning: Combined measures Example: Flexi-work, Other areas – e.g. flexible car ownership, e-commerce, e-business, intelligent building heating

X X X

2) Smart 20202

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The direct effect X

Dematerialisation Example: Online media, E-commerce, E-paper, Videoconferencing, Telecommuting X

Smart motor systems Example: Variable speed drives X

Smart logistics Example: Optimised routes & loading X

Smart buildings Example: Building management systems, power shut-offs at end of day X

Smart grids Example: Reduced transmission losses, demand management X

3) Impacts of ICTs on energy efficiency3

Impact area


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gICT energy efficiency and direct impacts Example: Social and environmental effects X

Low Energy Building Example: HVAC systems & lighting systems X

Industrial Equipment and Automation Example: Electrical Drivers, Motors, Pumps and Fans, Automation & power management X

Energy grids and Power Distribution Example: Supply & demand management system, including metering & pricing X

Dematerialisation of Society Example: e-government, teleconferencing, e-work, e-commerce, dematerialised goods & services X

4) Carbon Connections4

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Dematerialisation Example: Mobile telepresence, virtual office, mobile delivery notifications for e-commerce X

Smart grid Example: Energy network monitoring, smart meter: micro-power generation, smart meter: grid loading optimisation X

Smart logistics Example: Centralised tracking, decentralised tracking, loading optimisation, onboard telematics, remote supply control X

Smart cities Example: Synchronised traffic & alert system X

Smart manufacturing Example: High value product remote monitoring module X

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5) Reducing GHGs through intense use of ICT5

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Energy Generation and Distribution Example: Transmission and Distribution Network Management, Smart metering, Renewable energy management systems, Intelligent Power Generation

X

Industry Example: Intelligent motor controllers, Industrial process automation, Digital commercial printing

X X

Transport Example: Supply chain & logistic optimisation, Private transport optimisation,Virtual conferencing / telecommuting, Efficient vehicles, Traffic flow optimisation

X X X

Buildings Example: Energy management systems, Smart lighting (automation), Intelligent building design, Teleworking, Demand-side management

X X X

6) Using ICTs to tackle Climate Change6

Impact area


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Actions on adaptation to climate change Example: Monitoring the global ecosystem, Addressing resource shortages. Monitoring deforestation. Waste management. Increasing energy supply efficiency & use of renewables. Climate Change Education Healthcare

X X X X

Actions to reduce GHG emissions Example: More efficient ICT hardware X

Actions on mitigation of Climate Change Example: Reducing Carbon emissions in other sectors, Smart grids, Promoting smart industries, Reducing or replacing travel, Smart logistics

X X X X

7) Make IT Green7

Impact area


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X

Transportation Example: More efficient ICT hardware X

Dematerialisation Example: Teleconference & meeting facilitation, route planning/goods management, desktop virtualisation, smart appliances, e-books, e-music, paperless workspace, digital photos, cloud/virtualisation of servers

X X

Buildings Example: Real-time transfer of information, smart meter connectivity, GHG management dashboards, building energy management

X

Information Management Example: Facility level GHG management, supply chain management and GHG reporting X

1 WWF & ETNO, (2005). Saving the Climate @ the speed of light – First roadmap for reduced CO2 emissions in the EU and beyond (http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/ict/)

2 The Climate Group on behalf of the Global eSustainability Initiative (2008) Smart2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age (www.smart2020.org/)

3 bio Intelligence Service (2008) Impacts of Information and Communication Technologies on Energy Efficiency – final report to the European Commission DG INFSO (www.ifap.ru/library/book373.pdf)

4 Vodafone & Accenture (2009) Carbon Connections: Quantifying mobile’s role in tackling climate change (www.vodafone.com/content/dam/vodafone/about/sustainability/2011/pdf/carbon_connections.pdf)

5 IDC (2009) Reducing Greenhouse Gases Through Intense Use of Information and Communication Technology (http://download.intel.com/pressroom/archive/reference/IDCWP31R.pdf)

6 International Telecommunication Union (ITU) & Global eSustainability Initiative (2010) Using ICTs to Tackle Climate Change (www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-t/oth/4B/01/T4B010000010001PDFE.pdf)

7 Greenpeace International (2010) Make IT Green: Cloud computing and its contribution to climate change (www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/reports/make-it-green-cloud-computing/)

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© Forum for the Future December 2011.

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